Sample size considerations and augmentation of computer experiments

Computer Experiments, consisting of a number of runs of a computer model with different inputs, are now common-place in scientific research. Using a simple fire model for illustration some guidelines are given for the size of a computer experiment. A graph is provided relating the error of prediction to the sample size which should be of use when designing computer experiments. Methods for augmenting computer experiments with extra runs are also described and illustrated. The simplest method involves adding one point at a time choosing that point with the maximum prediction variance. Another method that appears to work well is to choose points from a candidate set with maximum determinant of the variance covariance matrix of predictions.

Extracting Three Dimensional Surface Model of Human Kidney from the Visible Human Data Set using Free Software

Three dimensional digital model of a representative human kidney is needed for a surgical simulator that is capable of simulating a laparoscopic surgery involving kidney. Buying a three dimensional computer model of a representative human kidney, or reconstructing a human kidney from an image sequence using commercial software, both involve (sometimes significant amount of) money. In this paper, author has shown that one can obtain a three dimensional surface model of human kidney by making use of images from the Visible Human Data Set and a few free software packages (ImageJ, ITK-SNAP, and MeshLab in particular). Images from the Visible Human Data Set, and the software packages used here, both do not cost anything. Hence, the practice of extracting the geometry of a representative human kidney for free, as illustrated in the present work, could be a free alternative to the use of expensive commercial software or to the purchase of a digital model.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

Obtaining data to validate a model of an induction skull melting furnace

A casting route is often the most cost-effective means of producing engineering components. However, certain materials, particularly those based on Ti, TiAl and Zr alloy systems, are very reactive in the molten condition and must be melted in special furnaces. Induction Skull Melting (ISM) is the most widely-used process for melting these alloys prior to casting components such as turbine blades, engine valves, turbocharger rotors and medical prostheses. A major research project is underway with the specific target of developing robust techniques for casting TiAl components. The aims include increasing the superheat in the molten metal to allow thin section components to be cast, improving the quality of the cast components and increasing the energy efficiency of the process. As part of this, the University of Greenwich (UK) is developing a computer model of the ISM process in close collaboration with the University of Birmingham (UK) where extensive melting trials are being undertaken. This paper describes the experimental measurements to obtain data to feed into and to validate the model. These include measurements of the true RMS current applied to the induction coil, the heat transfer from the molten metal to the crucible cooling water, and the shape of the column of semi-levitated molten metal. Data are presented for Al, Ni and TiAl.

The use of computer simulation for aircraft evacuation certification: a report from the VERRES project

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to the evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. The methodology suggested here involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing and full-scale certification trials. The proposed methodology sets out a protocol for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. Along with the suggested protocol, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. Given the sceptical nature of the aviation community regarding any certification methodology change in general, this would involve as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The computer model would be used to reproduce a probability distribution of likely aircraft performance under current certification conditions and in addition, several other more challenging scenarios could be developed. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) would provide better insight into the actual performance capabilities of the aircraft by generating a performance probability distribution or performance envelope rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established, the second step would only involve computer simulation and component testing. This would only be contemplated after sufficient experience and confidence in the use of computer models have been developed. The third step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification would involve the introduction of several scenarios based on for example exit availability instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios into the certification process. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modelling technology to include additional behavioural features common in real accident scenarios.

Turbulence model performance in continuous casting simulations

This paper concerns the development and validation (using an oil/water system) of a finite volume computer model of the continuous casting process for steel flat products. The emphasis is on hydrodynamic aspects and in particular the dynamic behaviour of the metal/slag interface. Instability and wave action encourage the entrainment of inclusions into the melt affecting product quality. To track the interface between oil and water a new implicit algorithm was developed, called the Counter Diffusion Method. To prevent excessive damping, a time-filtered version of the k-e model, was found necessary, with appropriate density stratification terms representing interface turbulence damping.

The Validation of a Two-Dimensional Transient Catalyst Model for Direct Injection Two-Stroke Applications

This paper describes the detailed validation of a computer model designed to simulate the transient light-off in a two-stroke oxidation catalyst. A plug flow reactor is employed to provide measurements of temperature and gas concentration at various radial and axial locations inside the catalyst. These measurements are recorded at discrete intervals during a transient light-off in which the inlet temperature is increased from ambient to 300oC at rates of up to 6oC/sec. The catalyst formulation used in the flow reactor, and its associated test procedures, are then simulated by the computer and a comparison made between experimental readings and model predictions. The design of the computer model to which this validation exercise relates is described in detail in a separate technical paper. The first section of the paper investigates the warm-up characteristics of the substrate and examines the validity of the heat transfer predictions between the wall and the gas in the absence of chemical reactions. The predictions from a typical single-component CO transient light-off test are discussed in the second section and are compared with experimental data. In particular the effect of the temperature ramp on the light-off curve and reaction zone development is examined. An analysis of the C3H6 conversion is given in the third section while the final section examines the accuracy of the light-off curves which are produced when both CO and C3H6 are present in the feed gas. The analysis shows that the heat and mass transfer calculations provided reliable predictions of the warm-up behaviour and post light-off gas concentration profiles. The self-inhibition and cross-inhibition terms in the global rate expressions were also found to be reasonably reliable although the surface reaction rates required calibration with experimental data.

Comparison of epicardial mapping and noncontact endocardial mapping in dog experiments and computer simulations

La fibrillation auriculaire, l'arythmie la plus fréquente en clinique, affecte 2.3 millions de patients en Amérique du Nord. Pour en étudier les mécanismes et les thérapies potentielles, des modèles animaux de fibrillation auriculaire ont été développés. La cartographie électrique épicardique à haute densité est une technique expérimentale bien établie pour suivre in vivo l'activité des oreillettes en réponse à une stimulation électrique, à du remodelage, à des arythmies ou à une modulation du système nerveux autonome. Dans les régions qui ne sont pas accessibles par cartographie épicardique, la cartographie endocardique sans contact réalisée à l'aide d'un cathéter en forme de ballon pourrait apporter une description plus complète de l'activité auriculaire. Dans cette étude, une expérience chez le chien a été conçue et analysée. Une reconstruction électro-anatomique, une cartographie épicardique (103 électrodes), une cartographie endocardique sans contact (2048 électrodes virtuelles calculées à partir un cathéter en forme de ballon avec 64 canaux) et des enregistrements endocardiques avec contact direct ont été réalisés simultanément. Les systèmes d'enregistrement ont été également simulés dans un modèle mathématique d'une oreillette droite de chien. Dans les simulations et les expériences (après la suppression du nœud atrio-ventriculaire), des cartes d'activation ont été calculées pendant le rythme sinusal. La repolarisation a été évaluée en mesurant l'aire sous l'onde T auriculaire (ATa) qui est un marqueur de gradient de repolarisation. Les résultats montrent un coefficient de corrélation épicardique-endocardique de 0.8 (expérience) and 0.96 (simulation) entre les cartes d'activation, et un coefficient de corrélation de 0.57 (expérience) and 0.92 (simulation) entre les valeurs de ATa. La cartographie endocardique sans contact apparait comme un instrument expérimental utile pour extraire de l'information en dehors des régions couvertes par les plaques d'enregistrement épicardique.

A Dynamical Systems Model for Language Change

Formalizing linguists' intuitions of language change as a dynamical system, we quantify the time course of language change including sudden vs. gradual changes in languages. We apply the computer model to the historical loss of Verb Second from Old French to modern French, showing that otherwise adequate grammatical theories can fail our new evolutionary criterion.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Computer simulations of microstructures related to the olivine spinel transition

Tiefherd-Beben, die im oberen Erdmantel in einer Tiefe von ca. 400 km auftreten, werden gewöhnlich mit dem in gleicher Tiefe auftretenden druckabhängigen, polymorphen Phasenübergang von Olivine (α-Phase) zu Spinel (β-Phase) in Verbindung gebracht. Es ist jedoch nach wie vor unklar, wie der Phasenübergang mit dem mechanischen Versagen des Mantelmaterials zusammenhängt. Zur Zeit werden im Wesentlichen zwei Modelle diskutiert, die entweder Mikrostrukturen, die durch den Phasenübergang entstehen, oder aber die rheologischen Veränderungen des Mantelgesteins durch den Phasenübergang dafür verantwortlich machen. Dabei sind Untersuchungen der Olivin→Spinel Umwandlung durch die Unzugänglichkeit des natürlichen Materials vollständig auf theoretische Überlegungen sowie Hochdruck-Experimente und Numerische Simulationen beschränkt. Das zentrale Thema dieser Dissertation war es, ein funktionierendes Computermodell zur Simulation der Mikrostrukturen zu entwickeln, die durch den Phasenübergang entstehen. Des Weiteren wurde das Computer Modell angewandt um die mikrostrukturelle Entwicklung von Spinelkörnern und die Kontrollparameter zu untersuchen. Die Arbeit ist daher in zwei Teile unterteilt: Der erste Teil (Kap. 2 und 3) behandelt die physikalischen Gesetzmäßigkeiten und die prinzipielle Funktionsweise des Computer Modells, das auf der Kombination von Gleichungen zur Errechnung der kinetischen Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit mit Gesetzen der Nichtgleichgewichtsthermodynamik unter nicht-hydostatischen Bedingungen beruht. Das Computermodell erweitert ein Federnetzwerk der Software latte aus dem Programmpaket elle. Der wichtigste Parameter ist dabei die Normalspannung auf der Kornoberfläche von Spinel. Darüber hinaus berücksichtigt das Programm die Latenzwärme der Reaktion, die Oberflächenenergie und die geringe Viskosität von Mantelmaterial als weitere wesentliche Parameter in der Berechnung der Reaktionskinetic. Das Wachstumsverhalten und die fraktale Dimension von errechneten Spinelkörnern ist dabei in guter Übereinstimmung mit Spinelstrukturen aus Hochdruckexperimenten. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird das Computermodell angewandt, um die Entwicklung der Oberflächenstruktur von Spinelkörnern unter verschiedenen Bedigungen zu eruieren. Die sogenannte ’anticrack theory of faulting’, die den katastrophalen Verlauf der Olivine→Spinel Umwandlung in olivinhaltigem Material unter differentieller Spannung durch Spannungskonzentrationen erklärt, wurde anhand des Computermodells untersucht. Der entsprechende Mechanismus konnte dabei nicht bestätigt werden. Stattdessen können Oberflächenstrukturen, die Ähnlichkeiten zu Anticracks aufweisen, durch Unreinheiten des Materials erklärt werden (Kap. 4). Eine Reihe von Simulationen wurde der Herleitung der wichtigsten Kontrollparameter der Reaktion in monomineralischem Olivin gewidmet (Kap. 5 and Kap. 6). Als wichtigste Einflüsse auf die Kornform von Spinel stellten sich dabei die Hauptnormalspannungen auf dem System sowie Heterogenitäten im Wirtsminerals und die Viskosität heraus. Im weiteren Verlauf wurden die Nukleierung und das Wachstum von Spinel in polymineralischen Mineralparagenesen untersucht (Kap. 7). Die Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit der Olivine→Spinel Umwandlung und die Entwicklung von Spinelnetzwerken und Clustern wird durch die Gegenwart nicht-reaktiver Minerale wie Granat oder Pyroxen erheblich beschleunigt. Die Bildung von Spinelnetzwerken hat das Potential, die mechanischen Eigenschaften von Mantelgestein erheblich zu beeinflussen, sei es durch die Bildung potentieller Scherzonen oder durch Gerüstbildung. Dieser Lokalisierungprozess des Spinelwachstums in Mantelgesteinen kann daher ein neues Erklärungsmuster für Tiefbeben darstellen.

Urban water demand model: the case study of Emilia Romagna (Italy)

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

Comparing in vitro, in situ, and in vivo experimental data in a three-dimensional model of mammalian cochlear mechanics

Normal mammalian hearing is refined by amplification of the motion of the cochlear partition. This partition, comprising the organ of Corti sandwiched between the basilar and tectorial membranes, contains the outer hair cells that are thought to drive this amplification process. Force generation by outer hair cells has been studied extensively in vitro and in situ, but, to understand cochlear amplification fully, it is necessary to characterize the role played by each of the components of the cochlear partition in vivo. Observations of cochlear partition motion in vivo are severely restricted by its inaccessibility and sensitivity to surgical trauma, so, for the present study, a computer model has been used to simulate the operation of the cochlea under different experimental conditions. In this model, which uniquely retains much of the three-dimensional complexity of the real cochlea, the motions of the basilar and tectorial membranes are fundamentally different during in situ- and in vivo-like conditions. Furthermore, enhanced outer hair cell force generation in vitro leads paradoxically to a decrease in the gain of the cochlear amplifier during sound stimulation to the model in vivo. These results suggest that it is not possible to extrapolate directly from experimental observations made in vitro and in situ to the normal operation of the intact organ in vivo.

Mechanical alloying of MoSi2 with ternary alloying elements. Part 2 - computer simulation

A computer model of the mechanical alloying process has been developed to simulate phase formation during the mechanical alloying of Mo and Si elemental powders with a ternary addition of Al, Mg, Ti or Zr. Using the Arhennius equation, the model balances the formation rates of the competing reactions that are observed during milling. These reactions include the formation of tetragonal C11(b) MOSi2 (t-MoSi2) by combustion, the formation of the hexagonal C40 MoSi2 polymorph (h-MoSi2), the transformation of the tetragonal to the hexagonal form, and the recovery of t-MoSi2 from h-MoSi2 and deformed t-MoSi2. The addition of the ternary additions changes the free energy of formation of the associated MoSi2 alloys, i.e. Mo(Si, Al)(2), Mo(Mg, Al)(2), (Mo, Ti)Si-2 (Mo, Zr)Si-2 and (Mo, Fe)Si-2, respectively. Variation of the energy of formation alone is sufficient for the simulation to accurately model the observed phase formation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.