Understanding distributions of chess performances

This paper presents evidence for several features of the population of chess players, and the distribution of their performances measured in terms of Elo ratings and by computer analysis of moves. Evidence that ratings have remained stable since the inception of the Elo system in the 1970’s is given in several forms: by showing that the population of strong players fits a simple logistic-curve model without inflation, by plotting players’ average error against the FIDE category of tournaments over time, and by skill parameters from a model that employs computer analysis keeping a nearly constant relation to Elo rating across that time. The distribution of the model’s Intrinsic Performance Ratings can hence be used to compare populations that have limited interaction, such as between players in a national chess federation and FIDE, and ascertain relative drift in their respective rating systems.

Assessment of manipulation accuracy of digitized occlusal radiographic images--sub and over exposure.

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether digitized images obtained from occlusal radiographs taken with low or over dose of radiation could be improved with the aid of computer software for digital treatment. Thirteen occlusal radiographs of a dry skull were taken employing 13 different exposure times. The radiographs were digitized and then manipulated with the program for image editing. 143 evaluations were performed by specialists in dental radiology who classified radiographs as appropriate or not appropriate for interpretation. Test Z was used for statistical analysis of the data and the results showed that it is possible to manipulate digitized radiographic images taken with 75% of the ideal exposure time and to make them suitable for interpretation and diagnosis. Conversely, it was concluded that the over exposed images, 57.50% above the standard exposure time, were inadequate.

Indagini forensi in tema di scambio di file pedopornografici mediante software di file sharing a mezzo peer-to-peer

La prova informatica richiede l’adozione di precauzioni come in un qualsiasi altro accertamento scientifico. Si fornisce una panoramica sugli aspetti metodologici e applicativi dell’informatica forense alla luce del recente standard ISO/IEC 27037:2012 in tema di trattamento del reperto informatico nelle fasi di identificazione, raccolta, acquisizione e conservazione del dato digitale. Tali metodologie si attengono scrupolosamente alle esigenze di integrità e autenticità richieste dalle norme in materia di informatica forense, in particolare della Legge 48/2008 di ratifica della Convenzione di Budapest sul Cybercrime. In merito al reato di pedopornografia si offre una rassegna della normativa comunitaria e nazionale, ponendo l’enfasi sugli aspetti rilevanti ai fini dell’analisi forense. Rilevato che il file sharing su reti peer-to-peer è il canale sul quale maggiormente si concentra lo scambio di materiale illecito, si fornisce una panoramica dei protocolli e dei sistemi maggiormente diffusi, ponendo enfasi sulla rete eDonkey e il software eMule che trovano ampia diffusione tra gli utenti italiani. Si accenna alle problematiche che si incontrano nelle attività di indagine e di repressione del fenomeno, di competenza delle forze di polizia, per poi concentrarsi e fornire il contributo rilevante in tema di analisi forensi di sistemi informatici sequestrati a soggetti indagati (o imputati) di reato di pedopornografia: la progettazione e l’implementazione di eMuleForensic consente di svolgere in maniera estremamente precisa e rapida le operazioni di analisi degli eventi che si verificano utilizzando il software di file sharing eMule; il software è disponibile sia in rete all’url http://www.emuleforensic.com, sia come tool all’interno della distribuzione forense DEFT. Infine si fornisce una proposta di protocollo operativo per l’analisi forense di sistemi informatici coinvolti in indagini forensi di pedopornografia.

Time and space partition platform for safe and secure flight software.

There are a number of research and development activities that are exploring Time and Space Partition (TSP) to implement safe and secure flight software. This approach allows to execute different real-time applications with different levels of criticality in the same computer board. In order to do that, flight applications must be isolated from each other in the temporal and spatial domains. This paper presents the first results of a partitioning platform based on the Open Ravenscar Kernel (ORK+) and the XtratuM hypervisor. ORK+ is a small, reliable real-time kernel supporting the Ada Ravenscar Computational model that is central to the ASSERT development process. XtratuM supports multiple virtual machines, i.e. partitions, on a single computer and is being used in the Integrated Modular Avionics for Space study. ORK+ executes in an XtratuM partition enabling Ada applications to share the computer board with other applications.

Formal Modeling and Analysis Techniques for High Level Petri Nets

Petri Nets are a formal, graphical and executable modeling technique for the specification and analysis of concurrent and distributed systems and have been widely applied in computer science and many other engineering disciplines. Low level Petri nets are simple and useful for modeling control flows but not powerful enough to define data and system functionality. High level Petri nets (HLPNs) have been developed to support data and functionality definitions, such as using complex structured data as tokens and algebraic expressions as transition formulas. Compared to low level Petri nets, HLPNs result in compact system models that are easier to be understood. Therefore, HLPNs are more useful in modeling complex systems. There are two issues in using HLPNs - modeling and analysis. Modeling concerns the abstracting and representing the systems under consideration using HLPNs, and analysis deals with effective ways study the behaviors and properties of the resulting HLPN models. In this dissertation, several modeling and analysis techniques for HLPNs are studied, which are integrated into a framework that is supported by a tool. For modeling, this framework integrates two formal languages: a type of HLPNs called Predicate Transition Net (PrT Net) is used to model a system's behavior and a first-order linear time temporal logic (FOLTL) to specify the system's properties. The main contribution of this dissertation with regard to modeling is to develop a software tool to support the formal modeling capabilities in this framework. For analysis, this framework combines three complementary techniques, simulation, explicit state model checking and bounded model checking (BMC). Simulation is a straightforward and speedy method, but only covers some execution paths in a HLPN model. Explicit state model checking covers all the execution paths but suffers from the state explosion problem. BMC is a tradeoff as it provides a certain level of coverage while more efficient than explicit state model checking. The main contribution of this dissertation with regard to analysis is adapting BMC to analyze HLPN models and integrating the three complementary analysis techniques in a software tool to support the formal analysis capabilities in this framework. The SAMTools developed for this framework in this dissertation integrates three tools: PIPE+ for HLPNs behavioral modeling and simulation, SAMAT for hierarchical structural modeling and property specification, and PIPE+Verifier for behavioral verification.

Probabilistic Models for Scalable Knowledge Graph Construction

In the past decade, systems that extract information from millions of Internet documents have become commonplace. Knowledge graphs -- structured knowledge bases that describe entities, their attributes and the relationships between them -- are a powerful tool for understanding and organizing this vast amount of information. However, a significant obstacle to knowledge graph construction is the unreliability of the extracted information, due to noise and ambiguity in the underlying data or errors made by the extraction system and the complexity of reasoning about the dependencies between these noisy extractions. My dissertation addresses these challenges by exploiting the interdependencies between facts to improve the quality of the knowledge graph in a scalable framework. I introduce a new approach called knowledge graph identification (KGI), which resolves the entities, attributes and relationships in the knowledge graph by incorporating uncertain extractions from multiple sources, entity co-references, and ontological constraints. I define a probability distribution over possible knowledge graphs and infer the most probable knowledge graph using a combination of probabilistic and logical reasoning. Such probabilistic models are frequently dismissed due to scalability concerns, but my implementation of KGI maintains tractable performance on large problems through the use of hinge-loss Markov random fields, which have a convex inference objective. This allows the inference of large knowledge graphs using 4M facts and 20M ground constraints in 2 hours. To further scale the solution, I develop a distributed approach to the KGI problem which runs in parallel across multiple machines, reducing inference time by 90%. Finally, I extend my model to the streaming setting, where a knowledge graph is continuously updated by incorporating newly extracted facts. I devise a general approach for approximately updating inference in convex probabilistic models, and quantify the approximation error by defining and bounding inference regret for online models. Together, my work retains the attractive features of probabilistic models while providing the scalability necessary for large-scale knowledge graph construction. These models have been applied on a number of real-world knowledge graph projects, including the NELL project at Carnegie Mellon and the Google Knowledge Graph.

Modified gravity with tensor computer algebra: a case study

Il modello ΛCDM è il modello cosmologico più semplice, ma finora più efficace, per descrivere l'evoluzione dell'universo. Esso si basa sulla teoria della Relatività Generale di Einstein e fornisce una spiegazione dell'espansione accelerata dell'universo introducendo la costante cosmologica Λ, che rappresenta il contributo della cosiddetta energia oscura, un'entità di cui ben poco si sa con certezza. Sono stati tuttavia proposti modelli teorici alternativi che descrivono gli effetti di questa quantità misteriosa, introducendo ad esempio gradi di libertà aggiuntivi, come nella teoria di Horndeski. L'obiettivo principale di questa testi è quello di studiare questi modelli tramite il tensor computer algebra xAct. In particolare, il nostro scopo sarà quello di implementare una procedura universale che permette di derivare, a partire dall'azione, le equazioni del moto e l'evoluzione temporale di qualunque modello generico.

Ventilation behavior in trained and untrained men during incremental test: evidence of one metabolic transition point

This study aimed to describe and compare the ventilation behavior during an incremental test utilizing three mathematical models and to compare the feature of ventilation curve fitted by the best mathematical model between aerobically trained (TR) and untrained ( UT) men. Thirty five subjects underwent a treadmill test with 1 km.h(-1) increases every minute until exhaustion. Ventilation averages of 20 seconds were plotted against time and fitted by: bi-segmental regression model (2SRM); three-segmental regression model (3SRM); and growth exponential model (GEM). Residual sum of squares (RSS) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated for each model. The correlations between peak VO2 (VO2PEAK), peak speed (Speed(PEAK)), ventilatory threshold identified by the best model (VT2SRM) and the first derivative calculated for workloads below (moderate intensity) and above (heavy intensity) VT2SRM were calculated. The RSS and MSE for GEM were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than for 2SRM and 3SRM in pooled data and in UT, but no significant difference was observed among the mathematical models in TR. In the pooled data, the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.58; p < 0.01) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.46; p < 0.05) while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r = -0.43; p < 0.05). In UT group the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.65; p < 0.05) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.61; p < 0.05), while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r= -0.73; p < 0.01), Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.73; p < 0.01) and VO2PEAK (r = -0.61; p < 0.05) in TR group. The ventilation behavior during incremental treadmill test tends to show only one threshold. UT subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during moderate intensities while TR subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during heavy intensities.

A log-extended Weibull regression model

A bathtub-shaped failure rate function is very useful in survival analysis and reliability studies. The well-known lifetime distributions do not have this property. For the first time, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the logarithm of an extended Weibull distribution which has the ability to deal with bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the model parameters and some inferential procedures are presented. We reanalyze a real data set under the new model and the log-modified Weibull regression model. We perform a model check based on martingale-type residuals and generated envelopes and the statistics AIC and BIC to select appropriate models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditioning information in mutual fund performance evaluation: Portuguese evidence

We estimate and compare the performance of Portuguese-based mutual funds that invest in the domestic market and in the European market using unconditional and conditional models of performance evaluation. Besides applying both partial and full conditional models, we use European information variables, instead of the most common local ones, and consider stochastically detrended conditional variables in order to avoid spurious regressions. The results suggest that mutual fund managers are not able to outperform the market, presenting negative or neutral performance. The incorporation of conditioning information in performance evaluation models is supported by our findings, as it improves the explanatory power of the models and there is evidence of both time-varying betas and alphas related to the public information variables. It is also shown that the number of lags to be used in the stochastic detrending procedure is a critical choice, as it will impact the significance of the conditioning information. In addition, we observe a distance effect, since managers who invest locally seem to outperform those who invest in the European market. However, after controlling for public information, this effect is slightly reduced. Furthermore, the results suggest that survivorship bias has a small impact on performance estimates.

Long-run consumption risk with durable goods : UK evidence for equity and bond markets

"It is a widely accepted fact that the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) fails to provide a good explanation of many important features of the behaviour of financial market returns in a large range of countries over a long period of time. However, within a representative consumer/investor model, it is hard to see how the basic structure of the consumption based model can be safely abandoned." [introdução]

Dynamic calibration of our sense of time.

An accurate sense of time contributes to functions ranging from the perception and anticipation of sensory events to the production of coordinated movements. However, accumulating evidence demonstrates that time perception is subject to strong illusory distortion. In two experiments, we investigated whether the subjective speed of temporal perception is dependent on our visual environment. By presenting human observers with speed-altered movies of a crowded street scene, we modulated performance on subsequent production of "20s" elapsed intervals. Our results indicate that one's visual environment significantly contributes to calibrating our sense of time, independently of any modulation of arousal. This plasticity generates an assay for the integrity of our sense of time and its rehabilitation in clinical pathologies.

False identity documents forensic profiling: study of known-sources and cross-border seizures

A forensic intelligence process was conducted over cross-border seizures of false identity documents whose sources were partly known to be the same. Visual features of 300 counterfeit Portuguese and French identity cards seized in France and Switzerland were observed and integrated in a structured database developed to detect and analyze forensic links. Based on a few batches of documents known to come from common sources, the forensic profiling method could be validated and its performance evaluated. The method also proved efficient and complementary to conventional means of detecting connections between cases. Cross-border links were detected, highlighting the need for more collaboration. Forensic intelligence could be produced, uncovering the structure of counterfeits' illegal trade, the concentration of their sources and the evolution of their quality over time. In addition, two case examples illustrated how forensic profiling may support specific investigations. The forensic intelligence process and its results will underline the need to develop such approaches to support the fight against fraudulent documents and organized crime.

Cross recurrence quantification for cover song identification

There is growing evidence that nonlinear time series analysis techniques can be used to successfully characterize, classify, or process signals derived from realworld dynamics even though these are not necessarily deterministic and stationary. In the present study we proceed in this direction by addressing an important problem our modern society is facing, the automatic classification of digital information. In particular, we address the automatic identification of cover songs, i.e. alternative renditions of a previously recorded musical piece. For this purpose we here propose a recurrence quantification analysis measure that allows tracking potentially curved and disrupted traces in cross recurrence plots. We apply this measure to cross recurrence plots constructed from the state space representation of musical descriptor time series extracted from the raw audio signal. We show that our method identifies cover songs with a higher accuracy as compared to previously published techniques. Beyond the particular application proposed here, we discuss how our approach can be useful for the characterization of a variety of signals from different scientific disciplines. We study coupled Rössler dynamics with stochastically modulated mean frequencies as one concrete example to illustrate this point.

Temporal evolution of MR perfusion in neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy

PURPOSE: To illustrate the evolution of brain perfusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (PWI-MRI) in severe neonatal hypoxic-ischemic (HI) encephalopathy, and its possible relation to further neurodevelopmental outcome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two term neonates with HI encephalopathy underwent an early and a late MRI, including PWI. They were followed until eight months of age. A total of three "normal controls" were also included. Perfusion maps were obtained, and relative cerebral blood flow (rCBF) and cerebral blood volume (rCBV) values were measured. RESULTS: Compared to normal neonates, a hyperperfusion (increased rCBF and rCBV) was present on early scans in the whole brain. On late scans, hyperperfusion persisted in cortical gray matter (normalization of rCBF and rCBV ratios in white matter and basal ganglia, but not in cortical gray matter). Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) was normalized, and extensive lesions became visible on T2-weighted images. Both patients displayed very abnormal outcome: Patient 2 with the more abnormal early and late hyperperfusion being the worst. CONCLUSION: PWI in HI encephalopathy did not have the same temporal evolution as DWI, and remained abnormal for more than one week after injury. This could be a marker of an ongoing mechanism underlying severe neonatal HI encephalopathy. Evolution of PWI might help to predict further neurodevelopmental outcome.