What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence-environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence-environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building 'under fit' models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence-environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building 'over fit' models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species ranges.

Expansion of host range as a driving force in the evolution of Toxoplasma

The apicomplexan parasite Toxoplasma gondii is unusual in being able to infect almost any cell from almost any warm-blooded animal it encounters. This extraordinary host-range contrasts with its far more particular cousins such as the various species of the malaria parasite Plasmodium where each species of parasite has a single genus or even species of host that it can infect. Genetic and genomic studies have revealed a key role for a number of gene families in how Toxoplasma invades a host cell, modulates gene expression of that cell and successfully evades the resulting immune response. In this review, I will explore the hypothesis that a combination of sexual recombination and expansion of host range may be the major driving forces in the evolution of some of these gene families and the specific genes they encompass. These ideas stem from results and thoughts published by several labs in the last few years but especially recent papers on the role of different forms of rhoptry proteins in the relative virulence of F1 Toxoplasma progeny in a particular host species (mice).

Systematic survey of clonal complexity in tuberculosis at a populational level and detailed characterization of the isolates involved.

Clonally complex infections by Mycobacterium tuberculosis are progressively more accepted. Studies of their dimension in epidemiological scenarios where the infective pressure is not high are scarce. Our study systematically searched for clonally complex infections (mixed infections by more than one strain and simultaneous presence of clonal variants) by applying mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit (MIRU)-variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) analysis to M. tuberculosis isolates from two population-based samples of respiratory (703 cases) and respiratory-extrapulmonary (R+E) tuberculosis (TB) cases (71 cases) in a context of moderate TB incidence. Clonally complex infections were found in 11 (1.6%) of the respiratory TB cases and in 10 (14.1%) of those with R+E TB. Among the 21 cases with clonally complex TB, 9 were infected by 2 independent strains and the remaining 12 showed the simultaneous presence of 2 to 3 clonal variants. For the 10 R+E TB cases with clonally complex infections, compartmentalization (different compositions of strains/clonal variants in independent infected sites) was found in 9 of them. All the strains/clonal variants were also genotyped by IS6110-based restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis, which split two MIRU-defined clonal variants, although in general, it showed a lower discriminatory power to identify the clonal heterogeneity revealed by MIRU-VNTR analysis. The comparative analysis of IS6110 insertion sites between coinfecting clonal variants showed differences in the genes coding for a cutinase, a PPE family protein, and two conserved hypothetical proteins. Diagnostic delay, existence of previous TB, risk for overexposure, and clustered/orphan status of the involved strains were analyzed to propose possible explanations for the cases with clonally complex infections. Our study characterizes in detail all the clonally complex infections by M. tuberculosis found in a systematic survey and contributes to the characterization that these phenomena can be found to an extent higher than expected, even in an unselected population-based sample lacking high infective pressure.

gcodeml: A Grid-enabled Tool for Detecting Positive Selection in Biological Evolution

One of the important questions in biological evolution is to know if certain changes along protein coding genes have contributed to the adaptation of species. This problem is known to be biologically complex and computationally very expensive. It, therefore, requires efficient Grid or cluster solutions to overcome the computational challenge. We have developed a Grid-enabled tool (gcodeml) that relies on the PAML (codeml) package to help analyse large phylogenetic datasets on both Grids and computational clusters. Although we report on results for gcodeml, our approach is applicable and customisable to related problems in biology or other scientific domains.

Genetic team composition and level of selection in the evolution of cooperation

In cooperative multiagent systems, agents interac to solve tasks. Global dynamics of multiagent teams result from local agent interactions, and are complex and difficult to predict. Evolutionary computation has proven a promising approach to the design of such teams. The majority of current studies use teams composed of agents with identical control rules ("geneti- cally homogeneous teams") and select behavior at the team level ("team-level selection"). Here we extend current approaches to include four combinations of genetic team composition and level of selection. We compare the performance of genetically homo- geneous teams evolved with individual-level selection, genetically homogeneous teams evolved with team-level selection, genetically heterogeneous teams evolved with individual-level selection, and genetically heterogeneous teams evolved with team-level selection. We use a simulated foraging task to show that the optimal combination depends on the amount of cooperation required by the task. Accordingly, we distinguish between three types of cooperative tasks and suggest guidelines for the optimal choice of genetic team composition and level of selection

Environmental stress and atavism in ammonoid evolution

The most common trends observed in ammonoid evolution during ecologically stable periods are characterized by an increase of shell curvature (e.g. evolute to involute), by the development of more complex ornamentation (flexuosity of ribbing, appearance of nodes and spines) and by a long term increase of the suture line's fractal dimension. Major evolutionary jumps in ammonoids occur during severe extinction events, and are characterized by the sudden appearance of simple, primitive-looking forms which are similar to remote ancestors of their more complex immediate progenitors. Such forms are interpreted as atavistic. According to this hypothesis, homeomorphic species generated during such sublethal stress events can be separated by several millions of years.

Selection methods regulate evolution of cooperation in digital evolution.

A key, yet often neglected, component of digital evolution and evolutionary models is the 'selection method' which assigns fitness (number of offspring) to individuals based on their performance scores (efficiency in performing tasks). Here, we study with formal analysis and numerical experiments the evolution of cooperation under the five most common selection methods (proportionate, rank, truncation-proportionate, truncation-uniform and tournament). We consider related individuals engaging in a Prisoner's Dilemma game where individuals can either cooperate or defect. A cooperator pays a cost, whereas its partner receives a benefit, which affect their performance scores. These performance scores are translated into fitness by one of the five selection methods. We show that cooperation is positively associated with the relatedness between individuals under all selection methods. By contrast, the change in the performance benefit of cooperation affects the populations' average level of cooperation only under the proportionate methods. We also demonstrate that the truncation and tournament methods may introduce negative frequency-dependence and lead to the evolution of polymorphic populations. Using the example of the evolution of cooperation, we show that the choice of selection method, though it is often marginalized, can considerably affect the evolutionary dynamics.

From local groups to early states: the development of complexity in protohistoric Catalonia

La recerca sobre la protohistoria de Catalunya s'ha fonamentat tradicionalment en la historia cultural, pero el treba11 deIs darrers vint-i-cinc anys ha comenat a donar 11um sobre aspectes crucials com el canvi social i la formació de l'Estat arcaico Aquest article és una visió general sobre aquests temes. S'hi analitza particularment el paper del creixement demogrMic com a element crucial del canvi social, pero també s'hi té en compte el paper que eventualment hi hagin pogut tenir els moviments de població i el comerç colonial.

Tandem chimerism as a means to increase protein complexity in the human genome.

The "one-gene, one-protein" rule, coined by Beadle and Tatum, has been fundamental to molecular biology. The rule implies that the genetic complexity of an organism depends essentially on its gene number. The discovery, however, that alternative gene splicing and transcription are widespread phenomena dramatically altered our understanding of the genetic complexity of higher eukaryotic organisms; in these, a limited number of genes may potentially encode a much larger number of proteins. Here we investigate yet another phenomenon that may contribute to generate additional protein diversity. Indeed, by relying on both computational and experimental analysis, we estimate that at least 4%-5% of the tandem gene pairs in the human genome can be eventually transcribed into a single RNA sequence encoding a putative chimeric protein. While the functional significance of most of these chimeric transcripts remains to be determined, we provide strong evidence that this phenomenon does not correspond to mere technical artifacts and that it is a common mechanism with the potential of generating hundreds of additional proteins in the human genome.