La cadena de valor del cacao en Perú y su oportunidad en el mercado mundial

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir las características de la cadena de valor del cacao en Perú. Para ello se realiza un estudio de tipo documental que relata el desempeño de los mercados de comodities agrarios, la comercialización de estos, el funcionamiento de la cadena en el País y la explicación de la estrategia nacional para este producto. Como resultado se plantea que el contexto en que se desarrolla el cacao peruano presenta ventajas debido a los problemas que tienen los productores en África, el potencial del mercado internacional con la inclusión de China e India, y el apoyo que el Estado está brindando a los pequeños produc­tores, lo que debe ser aprovechado a través de la formación de cadenas de valor

Pairs trading profits in commodity futures markets

This study employs a pairs trading investment strategy on daily commodity futures returns. The study reveals that pairs trading in similarly related commodity futures earns statistically significant excess returns with commensurate volatility. The excess returns from pairs trading in commodity futures are unrelated to conventional market risk factors and they are not associated with classic contrarian investing. The evidence of pairs trading reflect compensation to arbitrageurs for enforcing the law of one price in similarly related market efficiency.

Do long-short speculators destabilize commodity futures markets?

This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of the financialization of commodity futures markets by studying the conditional volatility of long–short commodity portfolios and their conditional correlations with traditional assets (stocks and bonds). Using several groups of trading strategies that hedge fund managers are known to implement, we show that long–short speculators do not cause changes in the volatilities of the portfolios they hold or changes in the conditional correlations between these portfolios and traditional assets. Thus calls for increased regulation of commodity money managers are, at this stage, premature. Additionally, long–short speculators can take comfort in knowing that their trades do not alter the risk and diversification properties of their portfolios.

Futures markets as a risk management tool for Latin American commodity exports: some pending issues

Includes bibliography

Mercados de futuros: su utilidad y sus limitaciones para el comercio de productos básicos de América Latina = Future markets: their usefulness and limitations for Latin American commodity trade

Incluye Bibliografía

Latin America and commodity futures markets today

Includes bibliography

Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

Information flow, trading activity and commodity futures volatility

Based on unique news data relating to gold and crude oil, we investigate how news volume and sentiment, shocks in trading activity, market depth and trader positions unrelated to information flow covary with realized volatility. Positive shocks to the rate of news arrival, and negative shocks to news sentiment exhibit the largest effects. After controlling for the level of news flow and cross-correlations, net trader positions play only a minor role. These findings are at odds with those of [Wang (2002a). The Journal of Futures Markets, 22, 427–450; Wang (2002b). The Financial Review, 37, 295–316], but are consistent with the previous literature which doesn't find a strong link between volatility and trader positions.

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

Global commodity chains and the development of poor fisherfolk in Uganda

The Ugandan fishery, heavily influenced by the emergence of global markets, is extremely dynamic. In recent years a major export trade, principally in Nile perch fillets from Lake Victoria, has expanded markedly. The growth of this factory based processing industry has had a marked impact on the pre-existing artisanal fishery, which has become increasingly dependent on supplying the export market instead of its traditional local small-scale markets. The industrial fishery developed as a response to the liberalisation of the management of the Ugandan economy and the consequent opening up of the export markets in North America and Europe. The emergence of the export industry has resulted in the creation of a dual structure in the fisheries sector, with the Nile perch catching and processing chain operating to European standards, whilst the artisanal sub-sector still utilises traditional methods. This dual structure is a potential source of disadvantage to the artisanal fishery which has command over fewer financial assets than the export fishery.

Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.