Dynamics of the Indonesian seas circulation. Part II – The role of pressure head

The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of the pressure head, i.e., the difference of total pressure forces acting on the Indonesian seas waters from the western Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean, in driving the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and in determining the total transport of the ITF. These questions have been discussed in the literature but no consensus has been reached. A regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation has been developed that properly resolves all major topographic features in the region. The results of model runs have been used to calculate all components of the overall momentum balance. The estimates disclose that the dynamical balance is primarily between the volume integrated Coriolis acceleration, pressure gradient and the area integral of local wind stress. It is shown that consideration of components of momentum balance in the direction of the outflow through the Indian Ocean port leads to the formulation of a diagnostic relation between total inflow transports due to the Mindanao and New Guinea Coastal Currents and the external pressure head, internal pressure head, bottom form stress, and area integrated wind stress. Based on this relation, it is concluded that the external pressure head is not the major driving force of the ITF, which is why there is no unique relation between the total transport of the ITF and the external pressure head. However, Wyrtki's suggestion to monitor the variability of the total transport of the ITF by measurement of the sea-surface-height difference between the western Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean is validated.

Modeling the Western Iberian margin circulation: present and future

The purpose of this work is to carry out a comprehensive study on the Western Iberian Margin (WIM) circulation my means of numerical modeling, and to postulate what this circulation will be in the future. The adopted approach was the development of a regional ocean model configuration with high resolution, capable of reproducing the largeand small-scale dynamics of the coastal transition zone. Four numerical experiences were carried out according to these objectives: (1) a climatological run, in order to study the system’s seasonal behavior and its mean state; (2) a run forced with real winds and fluxes for period 2001-2011 in order to study the interannual variability of the system; (3) a run forced with mean fields from Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the present, in order to validate GCMs as adequate forcing for regional ocean modeling; (4) a similar run (3) for period 2071-2100, in order to assess possible consequences of a future climate scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the WIM. Furthermore, two Lagrangian particle studies were carried out: one in order to trace the origin of the upwelled waters along the WIM; the other in order to portrait the patterns of larval dispersal, accumulation and connectivity. The numerical configuration proved to be adequate in the reproduction of the system’s mean state, seasonal characterization and an interannual variability study. There is prevalence of poleward flow at the slope, which coexists with the upwelling jet during summer, although there is evidence of its shifting offshore, and which is associated with the Mediterranean Water flow at deeper levels, suggesting a barotropic character. From the future climate scenario essay, the following conclusions were drawn: there is general warming and freshening of upper level waters; there is still poleward tendency, and despite the upwellingfavorable winds strengthening in summer the respective coastal band becomes more restricted in width and depth. In what concerns larval connectivity and dispersion along the WIM, diel vertical migration was observed to increase recruitment throughout the domain, and while smooth coastlines are better suppliers, there is higher accumulation where the topography is rougher.

A case study of boundary layer ventilation by convection and coastal processes

It is often assumed that ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer is weak in the absence of fronts, but is this always true? In this paper we investigate the processes responsible for ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer during a nonfrontal day that occurred on 9 May 2005 using the UK Met Office Unified Model. Pollution sources are represented by the constant emission of a passive tracer everywhere over land. The ventilation processes observed include shallow convection, turbulent mixing followed by large-scale ascent, a sea breeze circulation and coastal outflow. Vertical distributions of tracer are validated qualitatively with AMPEP (Aircraft Measurement of chemical Processing Export fluxes of Pollutants over the UK) CO aircraft measurements and are shown to agree impressively well. Budget calculations of tracers are performed in order to determine the relative importance of these ventilation processes. Coastal outflow and the sea breeze circulation were found to ventilate 26% of the boundary layer tracer by sunset of which 2% was above 2 km. A combination of coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing and large-scale ascent ventilated 46% of the boundary layer tracer, of which 10% was above 2 km. Finally, coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing, large-scale ascent and shallow convection together ventilated 52% of the tracer into the free troposphere, of which 26% was above 2 km. Hence this study shows that significant ventilation of the boundary layer can occur in the absence of fronts (and thus during high-pressure events). Turbulent mixing and convection processes can double the amount of pollution ventilated from the boundary layer.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates.

THE CO-INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE AND THE COASTAL UPWELLING AT CABO FRIO: A NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION USING COUPLED MODELS

A coupled atmospheric-oceanic model was used to investigate whether there is a positive feedback between the coastal upwelling and the sea breeze at Cabo Frio - RJ (Brazil). Two experiments were performed to ascertain the influence of the sea breeze on the coastal upwelling: the first one used the coupled model forced with synoptic NE winds of 8 m s(-1) and the sign of the sea breeze circulation was set by the atmospheric model; the second experiment used only the oceanic model with constant 8 m s(-1) NE winds. Then, to study the influence of the coastal upwelling on the sea breeze, two more experiments were performed: one using a coastal upwelling representative SST initial field and the other one using a constant and homogeneous SST field of 26 degrees C. Finally, two more experiments were conducted to verify the influence of the topography and the spatial distribution of the sea surface temperature on the previous results. The results showed that the sea breeze can intensify the coastal upwelling, but the coastal upwelling does not intensify the sea breeze circulation, suggesting that there is no positive feedback between these two phenomena at Cabo Frio.

The development of blowouts and foredunes in the Ilha Comprida barrier (Southeastern Brazil): the influence of Late Holocene climate changes on coastal sedimentation

Middle to Late Holocene barriers are conspicuous landforms in southeastern and southern Brazilian regions. The barriers in the coastal zones of northern Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo states (27 degrees 19`-24 degrees 00`S) are formed mainly by beach ridge alignments and many barriers present foredune and blowout alignments in their seaward portion. The development of these eolian landforms appears to record a regional shift in coastal dynamics and barrier building. In this context, the Ilha Comprida barrier stands out for its well-developed and well-preserved foredunes and blowouts. Based on the presence or not and type of eolian landforms, the Ilha Comprida barrier can be divided seaward into inner, middle and outer units. The inner unit is formed entirely by beach ridges. The middle unit comprises a narrow belt of blowouts (up to 15 m high) aligned alongshore. Blowout lobes pointing NNW are indicative of their generation by southern winds. The outer unit is represented by low (<= 1 m high) active or stabilized foredunes and a small transgressive dunefield (similar to 1 km(2)). Twenty-seven luminescence ages (SAR protocol) obtained for the beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts of these three units allow definition of a precise chronology of these landforms and calculation of rates of coastal progradation. The inner unit presents ages greater than 1004 +/- 88 years. The blowouts of the middle unit show ages from 575 +/- 47 to 172 +/- 18 years. The ages of the outer unit are less than 108 +/- 10 years. Rates of coastal progradation for the inner and outer units are 0.71-0.82 m/year and 0.86-2.23 m/year, respectively. The main phase of blowout development correlates well with the Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic event. These results indicate that southern winds in subtropical Brazil became increasingly more intense and/or frequent during the LIA. These conditions persist to the present and are responsible for the development of the eolian landforms in the outer unit. Thus, barrier geomorphology can record global climatic events. The sensitivity of barrier systems in subtropical Brazil to Late Holocene climate changes was favored by the relative sea level stillstand during this time. Luminescence dating makes it possible to analyze barrier geomorphology during Late Holocene climate changes operating on timescales of a hundred to thousand years. These results improve our knowledge of barrier building and will help in the evaluation of the impact of future climate changes on coastal settings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical study of circulation on the inner Amazon Shelf

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements Sector in Barbados

This study assesses the potential economic impact of climate change on coastal human settlements in the Caribbean, with specific reference to Barbados, and evaluates the costs and benefits of undertaking various adaptation strategies. The aim is to assist Caribbean territories in developing the strategies and capacity needed to deal with the potential impact of severe weather events that are anticipated to occur with increased frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources.This research focuses on how human settlements distributed along the coast of Guyana, especially those in low elevation coastal zones (LECZ)are affected by these impacts. Focusing on three potential transmission sources - sea-level rise, stronger storm hazards and increased precipitation – the study considers the vulnerability of populations in the LECZ areas and estimates the overall threat posed by climate change to coastal populations and infrastructure. Vulnerability to climate change (measured as exposed assets) was estimated for four emission scenarios as outlined by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), namely the A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios for the period 2010 to 2100 and as detailed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using global circulation models (GCM) and storm surge hazard maps.

Facies associations and controls on the evolution from a coastal bay to a lagoon system, Santa Catarina Coast, Brazil

The diverse Holocene morphological features along the south coast of the state of Santa Catarina include lagoons and residual lakes, a barrier, a delta (constructed by the Tubarao River), and pre-existing incised valleys that have flooded and filled. This scenario contains the sedimentary record of the transition from a bay to a lagoon system, which occurred during the rise and subsequent semi-stabilisation of the relative sea-level during the Holocene. The geomorphological evolution of this area was investigated using a combination of morphology, stratigraphic analysis of rotary push cores, vibracores and trenches with radiocarbon dating, taxonomic determination and taphonomic characterisation of Holocene fossil molluscs. Palaeogeographic maps were constructed to illustrate how the bay evolved over the last 8000 years. The relative sea-level rise and local sedimentary processes were the prime forcing factors determining the depositional history and palaeogeographic changes. The Holocene sedimentary succession began between 8000 and 5700 cal BP with the deposits of transgressive sandsheets. These deposits correspond to the initial marine flooding surface that was formed while the relative sea-level rose at a higher rate than the input of sediments, prior to the formation of the coastal barrier. The change from a bay to a lagoon system occurred around 5700 and 2500 cal BP during the mid-Holocene highstand with the formation of the barrier and with the achievement of a balance between sea-level rise and sedimentary supply. Until 2500 cal BP, the presence of this barrier, the following gentle decline in sea level and the initial emergence of back-barrier features restricted the hydro-dynamic circulation inside the bay and favoured an increase in the Tubarao River delta progradation rate. The final stage, during the last 2500 years, was marked by the increasing back-barrier width, with the establishment of salt marshes, the arrival of the delta in the back-barrier, and the advance of aeolian dunes along the outer lagoon margins. This study shed light on the mechanisms of coastal bay evolution in a setting existed prior to the beginning of barrier lagoon sedimentation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards Rapid Environmental Assessment and Coastal Forecasting in the Northern Adriatic Sea

A new Coastal Rapid Environmental Assessment (CREA) strategy has been developed and successfully applied to the Northern Adriatic Sea. CREA strategy exploits the recent advent of operational oceanography to establish a CREA system based on an operational regional forecasting system and coastal monitoring networks of opportunity. The methodology wishes to initialize a coastal high resolution model, nested within the regional forecasting system, blending the large scale parent model fields with the available coastal observations to generate the requisite field estimates. CREA modeling system consists of a high resolution, O(800m), Adriatic SHELF model (ASHELF) implemented into the Northern Adriatic basin and nested within the Adriatic Forecasting System (AFS) (Oddo et al. 2006). The observational system is composed by the coastal networks established in the framework of ADRICOSM (ADRiatic sea integrated COastal areaS and river basin Managment system) Pilot Project. An assimilation technique exerts a correction of the initial field provided by AFS on the basis of the available observations. The blending of the two data sets has been carried out through a multi-scale optimal interpolation technique developed by Mariano and Brown (1992). Two CREA weekly exercises have been conducted: the first, at the beginning of May (spring experiment); the second in middle August (summer experiment). The weeks have been chosen looking at the availability of all coastal observations in the initialization day and one week later to validate model results, verifying our predictive skills. ASHELF spin up time has been investigated too, through a dedicated experiment, in order to obtain the maximum forecast accuracy within a minimum time. Energetic evaluations show that for the Northern Adriatic Sea and for the forcing applied, a spin-up period of one week allows ASHELF to generate new circulation features enabled by the increased resolution and its total kinetic energy to establish a new dynamical balance. CREA results, evaluated by mean of standard statistics between ASHELF and coastal CTDs, show improvement deriving from the initialization technique and a good model performance in the coastal areas of the Northern Adriatic basin, characterized by a shallow and wide continental shelf subject to substantial freshwater influence from rivers. Results demonstrate the feasibility of our CREA strategy to support coastal zone management and wish an additional establishment of operational coastal monitoring activities to advance it.

Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.

Satellite and in situ data integrated analysis to study the upper ocean an coastal environment of the Italian seas

The thesis objectives are to develop new methodologies for study of the space and time variability of Italian upper ocean ecosystem through the combined use of multi-sensors satellite data and in situ observations and to identify the capability and limits of remote sensing observations to monitor the marine state at short and long time scales. Three oceanographic basins have been selected and subjected to different types of analyses. The first region is the Tyrrhenian Sea where a comparative analysis of altimetry and lagrangian measurements was carried out to study the surface circulation. The results allowed to deepen the knowledge of the Tyrrhenian Sea surface dynamics and its variability and to defined the limitations of satellite altimetry measurements to detect small scale marine circulation features. Channel of Sicily study aimed to identify the spatial-temporal variability of phytoplankton biomass and to understand the impact of the upper ocean circulation on the marine ecosystem. An combined analysis of the satellite of long term time series of chlorophyll, Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level field data was applied. The results allowed to identify the key role of the Atlantic water inflow in modulating the seasonal variability of the phytoplankton biomass in the region. Finally, Italian coastal marine system was studied with the objective to explore the potential capability of Ocean Color data in detecting chlorophyll trend in coastal areas. The most appropriated methodology to detect long term environmental changes was defined through intercomparison of chlorophyll trends detected by in situ and satellite. Then, Italian coastal areas subject to eutrophication problems were identified. This work has demonstrated that satellites data constitute an unique opportunity to define the features and forcing influencing the upper ocean ecosystems dynamics and can be used also to monitor environmental variables capable of influencing phytoplankton productivity.