Modelagem do produto interno bruto brasileiro utilizando modelos não lineares

O trabalho tem como objetivo aplicar uma modelagem não linear ao Produto Interno Bruto brasileiro. Para tanto foi testada a existência de não linearidade do processo gerador dos dados com a metodologia sugerida por Castle e Henry (2010). O teste consiste em verificar a persistência dos regressores não lineares no modelo linear irrestrito. A seguir a série é modelada a partir do modelo autoregressivo com limiar utilizando a abordagem geral para específico na seleção do modelo. O algoritmo Autometrics é utilizado para escolha do modelo não linear. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o Produto Interno Bruto do Brasil é melhor explicado por um modelo não linear com três mudanças de regime, que ocorrem no inicio dos anos 90, que, de fato, foi um período bastante volátil. Através da modelagem não linear existe o potencial para datação de ciclos, no entanto os resultados encontrados não foram suficientes para tal análise.

Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

What is the importance of selecting features for non-technical losses identification?

Although non-technical losses automatic identification has been massively studied, the problem of selecting the most representative features in order to boost the identification accuracy has not attracted much attention in this context. In this paper, we focus on this problem applying a novel feature selection algorithm based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Optimum-Path Forest. The results demonstrated that this method can improve the classification accuracy of possible frauds up to 49% in some datasets composed by industrial and commercial profiles. © 2011 IEEE.

Análise de distúrbios de tensão em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica baseada em sistemas imunológicos artificiais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Artificial Immune Systems Applied to the Analysis of Structural Integrity of a Building

This paper presents the application of artificial immune systems for analysis of the structural integrity of a building. Inspired by a biological process, it uses the negative selection algorithm to perform the identification and characterization of structural failure. This paper presents the application of artificial immune systems for analysis of the structural integrity of a building. Inspired by a biological process, it uses the negative selection algorithm to perform the identification and characterization of structural failure. This methodology can assist professionals in the inspection of mechanical and civil structures, to identify and characterize flaws, in order to perform preventative maintenance to ensure the integrity of the structure and decision-making. In order to evaluate the methodology was made modeling a two-story building and several situations were simulated (base-line condition and improper conditions), yielding a database of signs, which were used as input data for the negative selection algorithm. The results obtained by the present method efficiency, robustness and accuracy.

Monitoramento e identificação de falhas em estruturas aeronáuticas e mecânicas utilizando técnicas de computação inteligente

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS

Diagnóstico de distúrbios de tensão em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica usando um algoritmo imuno-neural

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Aplicação de sistemas imunológicos artificiais para biometria facial: Reconhecimento de identidade baseado nas características de padrões binários

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

EEG amplitude modulation analysis for semi-automated diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

Recent experimental evidence has suggested a neuromodulatory deficit in Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this paper, we present a new electroencephalogram (EEG) based metric to quantitatively characterize neuromodulatory activity. More specifically, the short-term EEG amplitude modulation rate-of-change (i.e., modulation frequency) is computed for five EEG subband signals. To test the performance of the proposed metric, a classification task was performed on a database of 32 participants partitioned into three groups of approximately equal size: healthy controls, patients diagnosed with mild AD, and those with moderate-to-severe AD. To gauge the benefits of the proposed metric, performance results were compared with those obtained using EEG spectral peak parameters which were recently shown to outperform other conventional EEG measures. Using a simple feature selection algorithm based on area-under-the-curve maximization and a support vector machine classifier, the proposed parameters resulted in accuracy gains, relative to spectral peak parameters, of 21.3% when discriminating between the three groups and by 50% when mild and moderate-to-severe groups were merged into one. The preliminary findings reported herein provide promising insights that automated tools may be developed to assist physicians in very early diagnosis of AD as well as provide researchers with a tool to automatically characterize cross-frequency interactions and their changes with disease.

A system for classification of time-series data from industrial non-destructive device

This work proposes a system for classification of industrial steel pieces by means of magnetic nondestructive device. The proposed classification system presents two main stages, online system stage and off-line system stage. In online stage, the system classifies inputs and saves misclassification information in order to perform posterior analyses. In the off-line optimization stage, the topology of a Probabilistic Neural Network is optimized by a Feature Selection algorithm combined with the Probabilistic Neural Network to increase the classification rate. The proposed Feature Selection algorithm searches for the signal spectrogram by combining three basic elements: a Sequential Forward Selection algorithm, a Feature Cluster Grow algorithm with classification rate gradient analysis and a Sequential Backward Selection. Also, a trash-data recycling algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal feedback samples selected from the misclassified ones.

Antarctic cloud spectral emission from ground-based measurements, a focus on far infrared signatures

The present work belongs to the PRANA project, the first extensive field campaign of observation of atmospheric emission spectra covering the Far InfraRed spectral region, for more than two years. The principal deployed instrument is REFIR-PAD, a Fourier transform spectrometer used by us to study Antarctic cloud properties. A dataset covering the whole 2013 has been analyzed and, firstly, a selection of good quality spectra is performed, using, as thresholds, radiance values in few chosen spectral regions. These spectra are described in a synthetic way averaging radiances in selected intervals, converting them into BTs and finally considering the differences between each pair of them. A supervised feature selection algorithm is implemented with the purpose to select the features really informative about the presence, the phase and the type of cloud. Hence, training and test sets are collected, by means of Lidar quick-looks. The supervised classification step of the overall monthly datasets is performed using a SVM. On the base of this classification and with the help of Lidar observations, 29 non-precipitating ice cloud case studies are selected. A single spectrum, or at most an average over two or three spectra, is processed by means of the retrieval algorithm RT-RET, exploiting some main IR window channels, in order to extract cloud properties. Retrieved effective radii and optical depths are analyzed, to compare them with literature studies and to evaluate possible seasonal trends. Finally, retrieval output atmospheric profiles are used as inputs for simulations, assuming two different crystal habits, with the aim to examine our ability to reproduce radiances in the FIR. Substantial mis-estimations are found for FIR micro-windows: a high variability is observed in the spectral pattern of simulation deviations from measured spectra and an effort to link these deviations to cloud parameters has been performed.

TANK SIZING AND OPTIMIZING LOOP PLACEMENT IN A BRANCHED WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

More than eighteen percent of the world’s population lives without reliable access to clean water, forced to walk long distances to get small amounts of contaminated surface water. Carrying heavy loads of water long distances and ingesting contaminated water can lead to long-term health problems and even death. These problems affect the most vulnerable populations, women, children, and the elderly, more than anyone else. Water access is one of the most pressing issues in development today. Boajibu, a small village in Sierra Leone, where the author served in Peace Corps for two years, lacks access to clean water. Construction of a water distribution system was halted when a civil war broke out in 1992 and has not been continued since. The community currently relies on hand-dug and borehole wells that can become dirty during the dry season, which forces people to drink contaminated water or to travel a far distance to collect clean water. This report is intended to provide a design the system as it was meant to be built. The water system design was completed based on the taps present, interviews with local community leaders, local surveying, and points taken with a GPS. The design is a gravity-fed branched water system, supplied by a natural spring on a hill adjacent to Boajibu. The system’s source is a natural spring on a hill above Boajibu, but the flow rate of the spring is unknown. There has to be enough flow from the spring over a 24-hour period to meet the demands of the users on a daily basis, or what is called providing continuous flow. If the spring has less than this amount of flow, the system must provide intermittent flow, flow that is restricted to a few hours a day. A minimum flow rate of 2.1 liters per second was found to be necessary to provide continuous flow to the users of Boajibu. If this flow is not met, intermittent flow can be provided to the users. In order to aid the construction of a distribution system in the absence of someone with formal engineering training, a table was created detailing water storage tank sizing based on possible source flow rates. A builder can interpolate using the source flow rate found to get the tank size from the table. However, any flow rate below 2.1 liters per second cannot be used in the table. In this case, the builder should size the tank such that it can take in the water that will be supplied overnight, as all the water will be drained during the day because the users will demand more than the spring can supply through the night. In the developing world, there is often a problem collecting enough money to fund large infrastructure projects, such as a water distribution system. Often there is only enough money to add only one or two loops to a water distribution system. It is helpful to know where these one or two loops can be most effectively placed in the system. Various possible loops were designated for the Boajibu water distribution system and the Adaptive Greedy Heuristic Loop Addition Selection Algorithm (AGHLASA) was used to rank the effectiveness of the possible loops to construct. Loop 1 which was furthest upstream was selected because it benefitted the most people for the least cost. While loops which were further downstream were found to be less effective because they would benefit fewer people. Further studies should be conducted on the water use habits of the people of Boajibu to more accurately predict the demands that will be placed on the system. Further population surveying should also be conducted to predict population change over time so that the appropriate capacity can be built into the system to accommodate future growth. The flow at the spring should be measured using a V-notch weir and the system adjusted accordingly. Future studies can be completed adjusting the loop ranking method so that two users who may be using the water system for different lengths of time are not counted the same and vulnerable users are weighted more heavily than more robust users.

Contribución al estudio de la biología floral de la vid en Mendoza

Como contribución al estudio de la biología floral de la vid en Mendoza, se han efectuado observaciones morfológicas y fisiológicas. En base a los resultados obtenidos se ha hecho una clasificación práctica agrupando las variedades estudiadas en 6 tipos florales. Se propone el mejoramiento de las variedades de fecundación imperfecta por medio de la selección clonal. Los seis tipos florales son los siguientes: 1º) Flores estaminadas, funcionalmente masculinas, con pistilos atrofiados. 2º) Flores pistiladas, funcionalmente femeninas, con estambres cortos y espiralados. 3º) Flores funcionalmente femeninas, pero ocasionalmente hermafroditas funcionales. 4º) Flores hermafroditas funcionales, imperfectas con estambres finos, más cortos que los normales y en algunos casos ligeramente espiralados. 5º) Flores hermafroditas funcionalmente perfectas, con estambres y pistilos normales. 6º) Flores hermafroditas con pistilo y óvulo defectuosos, dan origen a frutos partenocárpicos o estenospermocárpicos.

Codificador de voz MIDI

El presente proyecto tiene el objetivo de facilitar la composición de canciones mediante la creación de las distintas pistas MIDI que la forman. Se implementan dos controladores. El primero, con objeto de transcribir la parte melódica, convierte la voz cantada o tarareada a eventos MIDI. Para ello, y tras el estudio de las distintas técnicas del cálculo del tono (pitch), se implementará una técnica con ciertas variaciones basada en la autocorrelación. También se profundiza en el segmentado de eventos, en particular, una técnica basada en el análisis de la derivada de la envolvente. El segundo, dedicado a la base rítmica de la canción, permite la creación de la percusión mediante el golpe rítmico de objetos que disponga el usuario, que serán asignados a los distintos elementos de percusión elegidos. Los resultados de la grabación de estos impactos serán señales de corta duración, no lineales y no armónicas, dificultando su discriminación. La herramienta elegida para la clasificación de los distintos patrones serán las redes neuronales artificiales (RNA). Se realizara un estudio de la metodología de diseño de redes neuronales especifico para este tipo de señales, evaluando la importancia de las variables de diseño como son el número de capas ocultas y neuronas en cada una de ellas, algoritmo de entrenamiento y funciones de activación. El estudio concluirá con la implementación de dos redes de diferente naturaleza. Una red de Elman, cuyas propiedades de memoria permiten la clasificación de patrones temporales, procesará las cualidades temporales analizando el ataque de su forma de onda. Una red de propagación hacia adelante feed-forward, que necesitará de robustas características espectrales y temporales para su clasificación. Se proponen 26 descriptores como los derivados de los momentos del espectro: centroide, curtosis y simetría, los coeficientes cepstrales de la escala de Mel (MFCCs), y algunos temporales como son la tasa de cruces por cero y el centroide de la envolvente temporal. Las capacidades de discriminación inter e intra clase de estas características serán evaluadas mediante un algoritmo de selección, habiéndose elegido RELIEF, un método basado en el algoritmo de los k vecinos mas próximos (KNN). Ambos controladores tendrán función de trabajar en tiempo real y offline, permitiendo tanto la composición de canciones, como su utilización como un instrumento más junto con mas músicos. ABSTRACT. The aim of this project is to make song composition easier by creating each MIDI track that builds it. Two controllers are implemented. In order to transcribe the melody, the first controler converts singing voice or humming into MIDI files. To do this a technique based on autocorrelation is implemented after having studied different pitch detection methods. Event segmentation has also been dealt with, to be more precise a technique based on the analysis of the signal's envelope and it's derivative have been used. The second one, can be used to make the song's rhythm . It allows the user, to create percussive patterns by hitting different objects of his environment. These recordings results in short duration, non-linear and non-harmonic signals. Which makes the classification process more complicated in the traditional way. The tools to used are the artificial neural networks (ANN). We will study the neural network design to deal with this kind of signals. The goal is to get a design methodology, paying attention to the variables involved, as the number of hidden layers and neurons in each, transfer functions and training algorithm. The study will end implementing two neural networks with different nature. Elman network, which has memory properties, is capable to recognize sequences of data and analyse the impact's waveform, precisely, the attack portion. A feed-forward network, needs strong spectral and temporal features extracted from the hit. Some descriptors are proposed as the derivates from the spectrum moment as centroid, kurtosis and skewness, the Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients, and some temporal features as the zero crossing rate (zcr) and the temporal envelope's centroid. Intra and inter class discrimination abilities of those descriptors will be weighted using the selection algorithm RELIEF, a Knn (K-nearest neighbor) based algorithm. Both MIDI controllers can be used to compose, or play with other musicians as it works on real-time and offline.

Self-antigen does not accelerate immature B cell apoptosis, but stimulates receptor editing as a consequence of developmental arrest

In pre-B lymphocytes, productive rearrangement of Ig light chain genes allows assembly of the B cell receptor (BCR), which selectively promotes further developmental maturation through poorly defined transmembrane signaling events. Using a novel in vitro system to study immune tolerance during development, we find that BCR reactivity to auto-antigen blocks this positive selection, preventing down-regulation of light chain gene recombination and promoting secondary light chain gene rearrangements that often alter BCR specificity, a process called receptor editing. Under these experimental conditions, self-antigen induces secondary light chain gene rearrangements in at least two-thirds of autoreactive immature B cells, but fails to accelerate cell death at this stage. These data suggest that in these cells the mechanism of immune tolerance is receptor selection rather than clonal selection.