Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Estudio molecular en dos hermanas afectadas por ictiosis congénita autosómica recesiva : descripción de una nueva mutación causal en TGM1

Se describe la variante homocigota c.320-2A>G de TGM1 en dos hermanas con ictiosis congénita autosómica recesiva. El clonaje de los transcritos generados por esta variante permitió identificar tres mecanismos moleculares de splicing alternativos.

Maned wolf survival rate in central Brazil

Although many carnivores are of conservation concern, most are poorly studied. The maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus Illiger, 1811 is the largest South American canid with a broad distribution; however, the largest portion of its range is in the Brazilian Cerrado savannah, where due to intensive agricultural expansion, it is threatened by habitat loss. Maned wolf population trends are virtually unknown. We analyzed radio telemetry data from a 13-year study in Emas National Park, central Brazil, with Burnham`s live recapture/dead recovery models in the program MARK to obtain the first analytically sound estimate of the apparent maned wolf survival rate. We constructed 16 candidate models including variation in survival rate and resighting probability associated with an individual`s sex or age and year of study. Apparent adult survival rate throughout the study ranged from 0.28 (se=0.08) to 0.97 (se=0.06). There was no evidence for sex specificity but strong support for time variation. Model weights supported an age effect and the subadult survival rate was 0.63 (se=0.15). Results indicate similar life patterns for male and female maned wolves and similar mortality risks for adults and subadults in the study area. The observed temporal fluctuations of adult survival rate are important for population dynamics as they decrease average population growth rates. Population dynamics are central for conservation planning and our results are an important step towards a better understanding of the maned wolf`s ecology.

Density of the Near Threatened jaguar Panthera onca in the caatinga of north-eastern Brazil

We report the first estimate of jaguar density in the semi-arid caatinga biome of north-eastern Brazil. During August-October 2007, in the Serra da Capivara National Park, we used camera traps to identify and count jaguars. Jaguar abundance and density were calculated using mark-recapture models. In a sampling effort of 1,249 camera-trap-nights we identified 12 adult jaguars and estimated an 2 abundance of 14 +/- 3.6 jaguars in an area of 524 km(2), i.e. a density of 2.67 +/- 1.00 jaguars per 100 km(2). This estimate is higher than in most other Brazilian biomes and indicates Serra da Capivara National Park as an important reserve for protecting jaguars in north-eastern Brazil.

Maned Wolf Density in a Central Brazilian Grassland Reserve

The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) inhabits the savannah-like Cerrado of Brazil. Although 80% of this biome has already been affected by human activity, little is known about maned wolf abundance. Using mark-recapture models, we obtained the first density estimate from central Brazil, the core of maned wolf distribution. With 5.19 individuals/100 km(2), even large reserves support only small maned wolf populations. Therefore, long-term conservation of the maned wolf depends on land management outside of reserves. ( JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 73( 1): 68-71; 2009)

Epidemiological methods for research with drug misusers: review of methods for studying prevalence and morbidity

Epidemiological studies of drug misusers have until recently relied on two main forms of sampling: probability and convenience. The former has been used when the aim was simply to estimate the prevalence of the condition and the latter when in depth studies of the characteristics, profiles and behaviour of drug users were required, but each method has its limitations. Probability samples become impracticable when the prevalence of the condition is very low, less than 0.5% for example, or when the condition being studied is a clandestine activity such as illicit drug use. When stratified random samples are used, it may be difficult to obtain a truly representative sample, depending on the quality of the information used to develop the stratification strategy. The main limitation of studies using convenience samples is that the results cannot be generalised to the whole population of drug users due to selection bias and a lack of information concerning the sampling frame. New methods have been developed which aim to overcome some of these difficulties, for example, social network analysis, snowball sampling, capture-recapture techniques, privileged access interviewer method and contact tracing. All these methods have been applied to the study of drug misuse. The various methods are described and examples of their use given, drawn from both the Brazilian and international drug misuse literature.

Density estimates and conservation of Leopardus pardalis southernmost population of the Atlantic Forest

ABSTRACT Using camera traps and capture/recapture analyses we recorded the presence and abundance of cat species at Turvo State Park, in southern Brazil. Ocelot [Leopardus pardalis (Linnaeus, 1758)] population density was estimated for two areas of the park, with differing management profiles. Density estimates varied from 0.14 to 0.26 indiv. km2. Another five cat species were recorded at very low frequencies, precluding more accurate analyses. We estimate 24 to 45 ocelots occur in the reserve, which is probably too small for long-term maintenance of the population, if isolated. However, if habitat integrity and connectivity between the Park and the Green Corridor of Misiones is maintained, an estimated ocelot population of 1,680 individuals should have long-term viability.

The opossum Didelphis virginiana as a synanthropic reservoir of Trypanosoma cruzi in Dzidzilché, Yucatán, México

In México, the role of mammals in the transmission cycle of Trypanosoma cruzi is poorly known. In the State of Yucatán, an endemic area of Chagas disease, both Didelphis virginiana and D. marsupialis occur sympatrically. However, until now, only the former species had been found infected with T. cruzi. To evaluate the role of D. virginiana in a peridomestic transmission, nine periods of capture-recapture were performed around the village of Dzidzilché, Yucatán. The sex, age, reproductive status, location, and presence of infection with T. cruzi were recorded for each opossum. The chromosome morphology was used to identify the opossum species. T. cruzi was identified by the presence of pseudocysts of amastigotes in cardiac muscle fibers of Balb/c mice inoculated with strains isolated from opossums. However, xenodiagnosis was the best diagnostic method. Triatoma dimidiata, the vector, were collected in and around the opossums' nests, and human dwellings; and were checked for T. cruzi. From 102 blood samples of D. virginiana examined 55 (53.9%) were positive to T. cruzi, the only two D. marsupialis captured were negative. Significant differences were found between infection, and both sex and reproductive condition. Eight out of 14 triatomines collected in peridomestic nests (57.1%), and 32 of 197 captured inside houses (16.3%) were found infected, suggesting a peridomestic transmission. The statistically high abundance of infected opossums and triatomines during the dry season (March to May) suggested the existence of a seasonality in the peridomestic transmission of T. cruzi in Dzidzilché.

L’illusion des signaux pénaux : l’effet tendancieux de l’impunité différentielle

Réalisé sous la co-direction de Pierre Tremblay

Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

A bagging-based correction for the mixture model estimator of population size

Estimation of a population size by means of capture-recapture techniques is an important problem occurring in many areas of life and social sciences. We consider the frequencies of frequencies situation, where a count variable is used to summarize how often a unit has been identified in the target population of interest. The distribution of this count variable is zero-truncated since zero identifications do not occur in the sample. As an application we consider the surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain. In this case study holdings with scrapie that are not identified (zero counts) do not enter the surveillance database. The count variable of interest is the number of scrapie cases per holding. For count distributions a common model is the Poisson distribution and, to adjust for potential heterogeneity, a discrete mixture of Poisson distributions is used. Mixtures of Poissons usually provide an excellent fit as will be demonstrated in the application of interest. However, as it has been recently demonstrated, mixtures also suffer under the so-called boundary problem, resulting in overestimation of population size. It is suggested here to select the mixture model on the basis of the Bayesian Information Criterion. This strategy is further refined by employing a bagging procedure leading to a series of estimates of population size. Using the median of this series, highly influential size estimates are avoided. In limited simulation studies it is shown that the procedure leads to estimates with remarkable small bias.

Do individuals in better condition survive for longer? Field survival estimates according to male alternative reproductive tactics and sex

There is a gap in terms of the supposed survival differences recorded in the field according to individual condition. This is partly due to our inability to assess survival in the wild. Here we applied modern statistical techniques to field-gathered data in two damselfly species whose males practice alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs) and whose indicators of condition in both sexes are known. In Paraphlebia zoe, there are two ART: a larger black-winged (BW) male which defends mating territories and a smaller hyaline-winged (HW) male that usually acts as a satellite. In this species, condition in both morphs is correlated with body size. In Calopteryx haemorrhoidalis, males follow tactics according to their condition with males in better condition practicing a territorial ART. In addition, in this species, condition correlates positively with wing pigmentation in both sexes. Our prediction for both species was that males practicing the territorial tactic will survive less longer than males using a nonterritorial tactic, and larger or more pigmented animals will survive for longer. In P. zoe, BW males survived less than females but did not differ from HW males, and not necessarily larger individuals survived for longer. In fact, size affected survival but only when group identity was analysed, showing a positive relationship in females and a slightly negative relationship in both male morphs. For C. haemorrhoidalis, survival was larger for more pigmented males and females, but size was not a good survival predictor. Our results partially confirm assumptions based on the maintenance of ARTs. Our results also indicate that female pigmentation, correlates with a fitness component - survival - as proposed by recent sexual selection ideas applied to females.

High female mortality resulting in herd collapse in free-ranging domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in Sweden

Reindeer herding in Sweden is a form of pastoralism practised by the indigenous Sami population. The economy is mainly based on meat production. Herd size is generally regulated by harvest in order not to overuse grazing ranges and keep a productive herd. Nonetheless, herd growth and room for harvest is currently small in many areas. Negative herd growth and low harvest rate were observed in one of two herds in a reindeer herding community in Central Sweden. The herds (A and B) used the same ranges from April until the autumn gathering in October-December, but were separated on different ranges over winter. Analyses of capture-recapture for 723 adult female reindeer over five years (2007-2012) revealed high annual losses (7.1% and 18.4%, for herd A and B respectively). A continuing decline in the total reindeer number in herd B demonstrated an inability to maintain the herd size in spite of a very small harvest. An estimated breakpoint for when herd size cannot be kept stable confirmed that the observed female mortality rate in herd B represented a state of herd collapse. Lower calving success in herd B compared to A indicated differences in winter foraging conditions. However, we found only minor differences in animal body condition between the herds in autumn. We found no evidence that a lower autumn body mass generally increased the risk for a female of dying from one autumn to the next. We conclude that the prime driver of the on-going collapse of herd B is not high animal density or poor body condition. Accidents or disease seem unlikely as major causes of mortality. Predation, primarily by lynx and wolverine, appears to be the most plausible reason for the high female mortality and state of collapse in the studied reindeer herding community.

Estimativa populacional e uso do hábitat do boto-cinza (Sotalia guianensis) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte

Four areas are known as of frequent usage by Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte state, northeast Brazil: Tabatinga, Pipa, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Baia Formosa. This extension of 40 km of shoreline is under increasing anthropogenic impacts due to continuous development of the coastal areas and vessel traffic. The objective of this study was to investigate aspects of population biology and habitat use of the population of Sotalia guianensis in the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte. It was applied the photo-identification technique and posterior methods of capture-recapture for population estimation (POPAN extension in MARK). The distribution, movement and site fidelity of the dolphins were analyzed trough the geographic information system (GIS) and group characteristics and behavior trough non-parametric statistics. Field work was conducted on board a 10m motor vessel from March 2008 to March 2009. Photo-identification effort was 329h with 113h of direct observation of the dolphins. The population estimatives for each area: Tabatinga: 75 (63-92); Pipa 105 (88-129); Lagoa de Guaraíras: 27 (18-54) e Baia Formosa: 112 (89-129) individuals. Total population estimative was: 223 (192 a 297). High site fidelity was detected for only part of the population (<15%) as low site fidelity and transients individuals were also detected (>20%). It was observed frequent movements between Tabatinga, Lagoa de Guaraíras and Pipa, but not Baía Formosa. This suggests a division in two communities along this shore extension: one in Pipa and other in Baía Formosa. Group size was small, most groups with up to 10 dolphins. The areas were use intensively, only in Lagoa de Guaraíras dolphins were not seen in all field trips. Lagoa de Guaraíras is an area used by small groups exclusively for foraging. In Tabatinga and Pipa dolphins concentrated close to the shore, in the inner sector of the area and the main activity is also foraging. Significant larger groups were seen in socializing behavior but there was no difference in group size between the inner and external sectors of the area. The presence of calves and juveniles were significant greater in the inner areas of Tabatinga and Pipa, confirming the hypothesis that these beaches are also used for parental care. In Baia Formosa dolphins concentrated in the outer sector and foraging was also predominant. Significant larger groups were seen in the outer sector, mainly engaged in mixed behaviors of travel/foraging, possibly in some kind of group foraging. Calves and juveniles were significant more present in the outer sector where group size was also larger. In general there was no difference in area usage and period of the day. Sotalia guianensis has characteristics that make the species vulnerable to human activities such as small population concentrated in patches of suitable habitats restrict to coastal areas. We hope that this study bring new information for the species and help for the adequate management of the area in order to assure the presence of the dolphins as well as its behavior pattern and gene flow betweencommunities.

Integrodifference model for blowfly invasion

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)