Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

Community pharmacy dispensing of prescription medicine sample packs: Changing the business of medicine initiation?

Prescription medicine samples (or starter packs) are provided by pharmaceutical manufacturers to prescribing doctors as one component in the suite of marketing products used to convince them to prescribe a particular medicine [1,2]. Samples are generally newer, more expensive treatment options still covered by patent [3,4]. Safe, effective, judicious and appropriate medicine use (quality use of medicines) [5] could be enhanced by involving community pharmacists in the dispensing of starter packs. Doctors who use samples show a trend towards prescribing more expensive medicines overall [6] and also prescribe more medicines [7]. Cardiovascular health and mental health are Australian National Health Priority Areas [8] and account for approximately 30% and 17%, respectively, of annual government Pharmaceutical Benefits System (PBS) in 2006 [9]. The PBS is Australia's universal prescription subsidy scheme [9]. Antihypertensives were a major contributor to the estimated 80 000 medicine-related hospital admissions in Australia in 1999 [10] and also internationally [11,12]. The aim of this study was to pilot an alternative model for supply of free sample or starter packs of prescription medicines and ascertain if it is a viable model in daily practice.

Sartrean existentialism and ethical decision-making in business

A wide range of decision-making models have been offered to assist in making ethical decisions in the workplace. Those that are based on normative moral frameworks typically include elements of traditional moral philosophy such as consequentialist and/or deontological␣ethics. This paper suggests an alternative model drawing on Jean-Paul Sartre’s existentialism. Accordingly, the model focuses on making decisions in full awareness of one’s freedom and responsibility. The steps of the model are intended to encourage reflection of one’s projects and one’s situation and the possibility of refusing the expectations of others. A case study involving affirmative action in South Africa is used to demonstrate the workings of the model and a number of strengths and weaknesses are identified. Despite several weaknesses that can be raised regarding existential ethics, the model’s success lies in the way that it reframes ethical dilemmas in terms of individual freedom and responsibility, and in its acceptance and analysis of subjective experiences and personal situations

Low δ18O zircons from the Bruneau-­Jarbidge eruptive center: A key to crustal anatexis along the track of the Yellowstone hotspot

The Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center (BJEC) in the central Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA consists of the Cougar Point Tuff (CPT), a series of ten, high-temperature (900-1000°C) voluminous ignimbrites produced over the explosive phase of volcanism (12.8-10.5 Ma) and more than a dozen equally high-temperature rhyolite lava flows produced during the effusive phase (10.5-8 Ma). Spot analyses by ion microprobe of oxygen isotope ratios in 210 zircons demonstrate that all of the eruptive units of the BJEC are characterized by zircon δ¹⁸O values ≤ 2.5‰, thus documenting the largest low δ¹⁸O silicic volcanic province known on Earth (>10⁴ km³). There is no evidence for voluminous normal δ¹⁸O magmatism at the BJEC that precedes generation of low δ¹⁸O magmas as there is at other volcanic centers that generate low δ¹⁸O magmas such as Heise and Yellowstone. At these younger volcanic centers of the hotspot track, such low δ¹⁸O magmas represent ~45 % and ~20% respectively of total eruptive volumes. Zircons in all BJEC tuffs and lavas studied (23 units) document strong δ¹⁸O depletion (median CPT δ¹⁸OZrc = 1.0‰, post-CPT lavas = 1.5‰) with the third member of the CPT recording an excursion to minimum δ¹⁸O values (δ¹⁸OZrc= -1.8‰) in a supereruption > 2‰ lower than other voluminous low δ¹⁸O rhyolites known worldwide (δ¹⁸OWR ≤0.9 vs. 3.4‰). Subsequent units of the CPT and lavas record a progressive recovery in δ¹⁸OZrc to ~2.5‰ over a ~ 4 m.y. interval (12 to 8 Ma). We present detailed evidence of unit-to-unit systematic patterns in O isotopic zoning in zircons (i.e. direction and magnitude of Δcore-rim), spectrum of δ¹⁸O in individual units, and zircon inheritance patterns established by re-analysis of spots for U-Th-Pb isotopes by LA-ICPMS and SHRIMP. In conjunction with mineral thermometry and magma compositions, these patterns are difficult to reconcile with the well-established model for "cannibalistic" low δ¹⁸O magma genesis at Heise and Yellowstone. We present an alternative model for the central Snake River Plain using the modeling results of Leeman et al. (2008) for ¹⁸O depletion as a function of depth in a mid-upper crustal protolith that was hydrothermally altered by infiltrating meteoric waters prior to the onset of silicic magmatism. The model proposes that BJEC silicic magmas were generated in response to the propagation of a melting front, driven by the incremental growth of a vast underlying mafic sill complex, over a ~5 m.y. interval through a crustal volume in which a vertically asymmetric δ¹⁸OWR gradient had previously developed that was sharply inflected from ~ -1 to 10‰ at mid-upper crustal depths. Within the context of the model, data from BJEC zircons are consistent with incremental melting and mixing events in roof zones of magma reservoirs that accompany surfaceward advance of the coupled mafic-silicic magmatic system.

Passivity-based Trajectory-tracking for Marine Craft with Disturbance Rejection

This paper presents a Hamiltonian model of marine vehicle dynamics in six degrees of freedom in both body-fixed and inertial momentum coordinates. The model in body-fixed coordinates presents a particular structure of the mass matrix that allows the adaptation and application of passivity-based control interconnection and damping assignment design methodologies developed for robust stabilisation of mechanical systems in terms of generalised coordinates. As an example of application, we follow this methodology to design a passivity-based tracking controller with integral action for fully actuated vehicles in six degrees of freedom. We also describe a momentum transformation that allows an alternative model representation that resembles general port-Hamiltonian mechanical systems with a coordinate dependent mass matrix. This can be seen as an enabling step towards the adaptation of the theory of control of port-Hamiltonian systems developed in robotic manipulators and multi-body mechanical systems to the case of marine craft dynamics.

Buckling in polymer monolayers: Molecular-weight dependence

We present systematic investigations of buckling in Langmuir monolayers of polyvinyl acetate formed at the air-water interface. On compression the polymer monolayers are converted to a continuous membrane with a thickness of ~2–3 nm of well-defined periodicity, lambdab. Above a certain surface concentration the membrane undergoes a morphological transition buckling, leading to the formation of striped patterns. The periodicity seems to depend on molecular weight as per the predictions of the gravity-bending buckling formalism of Milner et al. for fluidlike films on water. However anomalously low values of bending rigidity and Young's modulus are obtained using this formalism. Hence we have considered an alternative model of buckling-based solidlike films on viscoelastic substrates. The values of bending rigidity and Young's modulus obtained by this method, although lower than expected, are closer to the bulk values. Remarkably, no buckling is found to occur above a certain molecular weight. We have tried to explain the observed molecular-weight dependence in terms of the variation in isothermal compressive modulus of the monolayers with surface concentration as well as provided possible explanations for the obtained low values of mechanical properties similar to that observed for ultrathin polymer films.

Soil carbon modelling as a tool for carbon balance studies in forestry

Soils represent a remarkable stock of carbon, and forest soils are estimated to hold half of the global stock of soil carbon. Topical concern about the effects of climate change and forest management on soil carbon as well as practical reporting requirements set by climate conventions have created a need to assess soil carbon stock changes reliably and transparently. The large spatial variability of soil carbon commensurate with relatively slow changes in stocks hinders the assessment of soil carbon stocks and their changes by direct measurements. Models therefore widely serve to estimate carbon stocks and stock changes in soils. This dissertation aimed to develop the soil carbon model YASSO for upland forest soils. The model was aimed to take into account the most important processes controlling the decomposition in soils, yet remain simple enough to ensure its practical applicability in different applications. The model structure and assumptions were presented and the model parameters were defined with empirical measurements. The model was evaluated by studying the sensitivities of the model results to parameter values, by estimating the precision of the results with an uncertainty analysis, and by assessing the accuracy of the model by comparing the predictions against measured data and to the results of an alternative model. The model was applied to study the effects of intensified biomass extraction on the forest carbon balance and to estimate the effects of soil carbon deficit on net greenhouse gas emissions of energy use of forest residues. The model was also applied in an inventory based method to assess the national scale forest carbon balance for Finland’s forests from 1922 to 2004. YASSO managed to describe sufficiently the effects of both the variable litter and climatic conditions on decomposition. When combined with the stand models or other systems providing litter information, the dynamic approach of the model proved to be powerful for estimating changes in soil carbon stocks on different scales. The climate dependency of the model, the effects of nitrogen on decomposition and forest growth as well as the effects of soil texture on soil carbon stock dynamics are areas for development when considering the applicability of the model to different research questions, different land use types and wider geographic regions. Intensified biomass extraction affects soil carbon stocks, and these changes in stocks should be taken into account when considering the net effects of forest residue utilisation as energy. On a national scale, soil carbon stocks play an important role in forest carbon balances.

Starburst in the ultraluminous galaxy Arp 220: Constraints from observations of radio recombination lines and continuum

We present observations of radio recombination lines (RRL) from the starburst galaxy Arp 220 at 8.1 GHz (H92 alpha) and 1.4 GHz (H167 alpha and H165 alpha) and at 84 GHz (H42 alpha), 96 GHz (H40 alpha) and 207 GHz (H31 alpha) using the Very Large Array and the IRAM 30 m telescope, respectively. RRLs were detected at all the frequencies except 1.4 GHz, where a sensitive upper limit was obtained. We also present continuum flux measurements at these frequencies as well as at 327 MHz made with the VLA. The continuum spectrum, which has a spectral index alpha similar to -0.6 (S-nu proportional to nu(alpha)) between 5 and 10 GHz, shows a break near 1.5 GHz, a prominent turnover below 500 MHz, and a flatter spectral index above 50 GHz. We show that a model with three components of ionized gas with different densities and area covering factors can consistently explain both RRL and continuum data. The total mass of ionized gas in the three components is 3.2 x 10(7) M., requiring 3 x 10(5) O5 stars with a total Lyman continuum production rate N-Lyc similar to 1.3 x 10(55) photons s(-1). The ratio of the expected to observed Br alpha and Br gamma fluxes implies a dust extinction A(V) similar to 45 mag. The derived Lyman continuum photon production rate implies a continuous star formation rate (SFR) averaged over the lifetime of OB stars of similar to 240 M yr(-1). The Lyman continuum photon Production rate of similar to 3% associated with the high-density H II regions implies a similar SFR at recent epochs (t < 10(5) yr). An alternative model of high-density gas, which cannot be excluded on the basis of the available data, predicts 10 times higher SFR at recent epochs. If confirmed, this model implies that star formation in Arp 220 consists of multiple starbursts of very high SFR (few times 10(3) M. yr(-1)) and short duration (similar to 10(5) yr). The similarity of IR excess, L-IR/L-Ly alpha similar to 24, in Arp 220 to values observed in starburst galaxies shows that most of the high luminosity of Arp 220 is due to the ongoing starburst rather than to a hidden active galactic nucleus (AGN). A comparison of the IR excesses in Arp 220, the Galaxy, and M33 indicates that the starburst in Arp 220 has an initial mass function that is similar to that in normal galaxies and has a duration longer than 107 yr. If there was no infall of gas during this period, then the star formation efficiency (SFE) in Arp 220 is similar to 50%. The high SFR and SFE in Arp 220 is consistent with their known dependences on mass and density of gas in star-forming regions of normal galaxies.

What mainly controls recession flows in river basins?

The ubiquity of the power law relationship between dQ/dt and Q for recession periods (-dQ/dt kQ(alpha); Q being discharge at the basin outlet at time t) clearly hints at the existence of a dominant recession flow process that is common to all real basins. It is commonly assumed that a basin, during recession events, functions as a single phreatic aquifer resting on a impermeable horizontal bed or the Dupuit-Boussinesq (DB) aquifer, and with time different aquifer geometric conditions arise that give different values of alpha and k. The recently proposed alternative model, geomorphological recession flow model, however, suggests that recession flows are controlled primarily by the dynamics of the active drainage network (ADN). In this study we use data for several basins and compare the above two contrasting recession flow models in order to understand which of the above two factors dominates during recession periods in steep basins. Particularly, we do the comparison by selecting three key recession flow properties: (1) power law exponent alpha, (2) dynamic dQ/dt-Q relationship (characterized by k) and (3) recession timescale (time period for which a recession event lasts). Our observations suggest that neither drainage from phreatic aquifers nor evapotranspiration significantly controls recession flows. Results show that the value of a and recession timescale are not modeled well by DB aquifer model. However, the above mentioned three recession curve properties can be captured satisfactorily by considering the dynamics of the ADN as described by geomorphological recession flow model, possibly indicating that the ADN represents not just phreatic aquifers but the organization of various sub-surface storage systems within the basin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Entre linhas e redes: os pontos de cultura no tecido brasileiro

Nos últimos 30 anos, a Cultura tem exercido um papel cada vez mais determinante nas esferas políticas, econômicas e sociais. A indústria dos bens culturais demonstra uma força crescente, mesmo perante crises, e agências multinacionais, juntamente com Estados-Nação, têm utilizado de projetos culturais com o objetivo de desenvolvimento econômico e social de diversas regiões do mundo. Porém, ao mesmo tempo que a cultura exerce papel tão predominante, ela vem sendo moldada segundo os ditames da lógica de mercado. Por isso órgãos como a UNESCO apontam para a necessidade dos países de fomentarem uma produção cultural heterogênica, que fuja dos modelos únicos das indústrias culturais. O presente trabalho põe em análise o programa Cultura Viva, implementado no Governo Lula, que tem nos Pontos de Cultura sua principal ação. A partir de conceitos de Gilles Deleuze, Felix Guattari e Antonio Negri, esse trabalho visa discutir de que maneiras o Cultura Viva se constitui como uma alternativa ao modelo de fomentação de cultura regido por esses ditames mercadológicos. Ao propor uma diferente forma de produção, organização e gestão do meio cultural, o programa Cultura Viva se inscreve em uma política mais aberta a diferentes grupos e movimentos de nossa sociedade brasileira.

Solving problems in production scheduling

Traditionally, production scheduling has been viewed as a problem-solving task that involves a single problem - generation of a suitable schedule. This paper presents an alternative model in which individual difficulties are viewed as problems, and the task is to maintain a suitable schedule by resolving as many of these problems as possible. Decision support software is described that has facilities for defining policies to handle numerous minor problems and complete problem-solving strategies to deal with major problems. The paper then discusses the potential for this style of decision support to improve the performance of human schedulers. © 1995.

Efficient decoding with generative score-spaces using the expectation semiring

State-of-the-art speech recognisers are usually based on hidden Markov models (HMMs). They model a hidden symbol sequence with a Markov process, with the observations independent given that sequence. These assumptions yield efficient algorithms, but limit the power of the model. An alternative model that allows a wide range of features, including word- and phone-level features, is a log-linear model. To handle, for example, word-level variable-length features, the original feature vectors must be segmented into words. Thus, decoding must find the optimal combination of segmentation of the utterance into words and word sequence. Features must therefore be extracted for each possible segment of audio. For many types of features, this becomes slow. In this paper, long-span features are derived from the likelihoods of word HMMs. Derivatives of the log-likelihoods, which break the Markov assumption, are appended. Previously, decoding with this model took cubic time in the length of the sequence, and longer for higher-order derivatives. This paper shows how to decode in quadratic time. © 2013 IEEE.

Towards Eco-Dharma: The Contribution of Gandhian Thought to Ecological Ethics in India

Ecological concern prompts poor and indigenous people of India to consider how a society can ensure both protection of nature and their rightful claim for a just and sustainable future. Previous discussions defended the environment while ignoring the struggles of the poor for sustenance and their religious traditions and ethical values. Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi addressed similar socio-ecological concerns by adopting and adapting traditional religious and ethical notions to develop strategies for constructive, engaged resistance. The dissertation research and analysis verifies the continued relevance of the Gandhian understanding of dharma (ethics) in contemporary India as a basis for developing eco-dharma (eco-ethics) to link closely development, ecology, and religious values. The method of this study is interpretive, analytical, and critical. Françoise Houtart’s social analytical method is used to make visible and to suggest how to overcome social tensions from the perspective of marginalized and exploited peoples in India. The Indian government's development initiatives create a nexus between the eco-crisis and economic injustice, and communities’ responses. The Chipko movement seeks to protect the Himalayan forests from commercial logging. The Narmada Bachao Andolan strives to preserve the Narmada River and its forests and communities, where dam construction causes displacement. The use of Gandhian approaches by these movements provides a framework for integrating ecological concerns with people's struggles for survival. For Gandhi, dharma is a harmony of satya (truth), ahimsa (nonviolence), and sarvodaya (welfare of all). Eco-dharma is an integral, communitarian, and ecologically sensitive ethical paradigm. The study demonstrates that the Gandhian notion of dharma, implemented through nonviolent satyagraha (firmness in promoting truth), can direct community action that promotes responsible economic structures and the well-being of the biotic community and the environment. Eco-dharma calls for solidarity, constructive resistance, and ecologically and economically viable communities. The dissertation recommends that for a sustainable future, India must combine indigenous, appropriate, and small- or medium-scale industries as an alternative model of development in order to help reduce systemic poverty while enhancing ecological well-being.

How a different look at latency can help to develop novel diagnostics and vaccines against tuberculosis.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is one of the most successful human pathogens. It kills every year approximately 1.5 - 2 million people, and at present a third of the human population is estimated to be infected. Fortunately, only a relatively small proportion of the infected individuals will progress to active disease, and most will maintain a latent infection. Although a latent infection is clinically silent and not contagious, it can reactivate to cause highly contagious pulmonary tuberculosis, the most prevalent form of the disease in adults. Therefore, a thorough understanding of latency and reactivation may help to develop novel control strategies against tuberculosis. The most widely held view is that the mycobacteria are imprisoned in granulomatous structures during latency, where they can survive in a non-replicating, dormant form until reactivation occurs. However, there is no hard data to sustain that the reactivating mycobacteria are indeed those that laid dormant within the granulomas. In this review an alternative model, based on evidence from early studies, as well as recent reports is presented, in which the latent mycobacteria reside outside granulomas, within non-macrophage cell types throughout the infected body. Potential implications for new diagnostic and vaccine design are discussed.

La financiación por medio del crowdfunding del audiovisual: el caso del cortometraje "Juan y la nube"

En el artículo se analizan las posibilidades que tiene el crowfunding (CF) para financiar el audiovisual. Se explica el modelo de financiación del CF y se indican las distintas ventajas que reporta para el promotor este modelo de financiación alternativa. Además se exponen ampliamente las principales características del proceso de CF seguido para financiar el cortometraje Juan y la nube (que se alzó con el Goya al Mejor corto de animación en el año 2015). Se comentan también los principales motivos que llevan a los mecenas a financiar los proyectos