Evaluation of different methods for Plasmodia detection, in well defined population groups in an endemic area of Brazil

In Brazil, more than 500,000 new cases of malaria were notified in 1992. Plasmodium falciparum and P.vivax are the responsible species for 99.3% of the cases. For adequate treatment, precoce diagnosis is necessary. In this work, we present the results of the traditional Plasmodia detection method, thick blood film (TBF), and the results of alternative methods: Immunofluorescence assay (IFA) with polyclonal antibody and Quantitative Buffy Coat method (QBC)® in a well defined population groups. The analysis were done in relation to the presence or absence of malaria clinical symptoms. Also different classes of immunoglobulins anti-P.falciparum were quantified for the global analysis of the results, mainly in the discrepant results. We concluded that alternative methods are more sensitive than TBF and that the association of epidemiological, clinical and laboratory findings is necessary to define the presence of malaria.

Comparison of capture methods for the diagnosis of adult anopheline populations from State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The present study compares human landing catches of primary malaria vectors with two alternative methods of capture: the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet. METHODS: This study used regression models to adjust capture data to a negative binominal distribution. RESULTS: Capture numbers and relative percentages obtained from the three methods vary strongly between species. The highest overall captures were obtained for Anopheles triannulatus with captures for the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet measuring more than 330% higher than captures obtained by human landings. For Anopheles darlingi, captures by the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet were about 14% and 26% of human landing catches, respectively. Another species with malaria transmission potential that was not sampled by human landing captures weascaptured by the Shannon trap and the Mosquito magnet (Anopheles oswaldoi). Both alternative sampling techniques can predict the human landing of Anopheles triannulatus, but without proportionality. Models for Anopheles darlingi counts, after totaling daily captures, are significant and proportional, but prediction models are more reliable when using the Shannon trap compared with the Mosquito magnet captures. CONCLUSIONS: These alternative capture methods can be partially recommended for the substitution of human landing captures or, at least, as complementary forms of monitoring for malarial mosquitoes.

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.

Methods and Models for Accelerating Dynamic Simulation of Fluid Power Circuits

The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, twomechanisms whichmake the systemstiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation are proposed. Generally, in hydraulic power transmission systems the orifice flow is clearly in the turbulent area. The flow becomes laminar as the pressure drop over the orifice approaches zero only in rare situations. These are e.g. when a valve is closed, or an actuator is driven against an end stopper, or external force makes actuator to switch its direction during operation. This means that in terms of accuracy, the description of laminar flow is not necessary. But, unfortunately, when a purely turbulent description of the orifice is used, numerical problems occur when the pressure drop comes close to zero since the first derivative of flow with respect to the pressure drop approaches infinity when the pressure drop approaches zero. Furthermore, the second derivative becomes discontinuous, which causes numerical noise and an infinitely small integration step when a variable step integrator is used. A numerically efficient model for the orifice flow is proposed using a cubic spline function to describe the flow in the laminar and transition areas. Parameters for the cubic spline function are selected such that its first derivative is equal to the first derivative of the pure turbulent orifice flow model in the boundary condition. In the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits, a tradeoff exists between accuracy and calculation speed. This investigation is made for the two-regime flow orifice model. Especially inside of many types of valves, as well as between them, there exist very small volumes. The integration of pressures in small fluid volumes causes numerical problems in fluid power circuit simulation. Particularly in realtime simulation, these numerical problems are a great weakness. The system stiffness approaches infinity as the fluid volume approaches zero. If fixed step explicit algorithms for solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) are used, the system stability would easily be lost when integrating pressures in small volumes. To solve the problem caused by small fluid volumes, a pseudo-dynamic solver is proposed. Instead of integration of the pressure in a small volume, the pressure is solved as a steady-state pressure created in a separate cascade loop by numerical integration. The hydraulic capacitance V/Be of the parts of the circuit whose pressures are solved by the pseudo-dynamic method should be orders of magnitude smaller than that of those partswhose pressures are integrated. The key advantage of this novel method is that the numerical problems caused by the small volumes are completely avoided. Also, the method is freely applicable regardless of the integration routine applied. The superiority of both above-mentioned methods is that they are suited for use together with the semi-empirical modelling method which necessarily does not require any geometrical data of the valves and actuators to be modelled. In this modelling method, most of the needed component information can be taken from the manufacturer’s nominal graphs. This thesis introduces the methods and shows several numerical examples to demonstrate how the proposed methods improve the dynamic simulation of various hydraulic circuits.

Alternative parameters for echocardiographic assessment of fetal diastolic function

Alternative methods to assess ventricular diastolic function in the fetus are proposed. Fetal myocardial hypertrophy in maternal diabetes was used as a model of decreased left ventricular compliance (LVC), and fetal respiratory movements as a model of increased LVC. Comparison of three groups of fetuses showed that, in 10 fetuses of diabetic mothers (FDM) with septal hypertrophy (SH), the mean excursion index of the septum primum (EISP) (ratio between the linear excursion of the flap valve and the left atrial diameter) was 0.36 ± 0.09, in 8 FDM without SH it was 0.51 ± 0.09 (P = 0.001), and in the 8 normal control fetuses (NCF) it was 0.49 ± 0.12 (P = 0.003). In another study, 28 fetuses in apnea had a mean EISP of 0.39 ± 0.05 which increased to 0.57 ± 0.07 during respiration (P < 0.001). These two studies showed that the mobility of the septum primum was reduced when LVC was decreased and was increased when LVC was enhanced. Mean pulmonary vein pulsatility was higher in 14 FDM (1.83 ± 1.21) than in 26 NCF (1.02 ± 0.31; P = 0.02). In the same fetuses, mean left atrial shortening was decreased (0.40 ± 0.11) in relation to NCF (0.51 ± 0.09; P = 0.011). These results suggest that FDM may have a higher preload than normal controls, probably as a result of increased myocardial mass and LV hypertrophy. Prenatal assessment of LV diastolic function by fetal echocardiography should include analysis of septum primum mobility, pulmonary vein pulsatility, and left atrial shortening.

A practical comparison of blinded methods for sample size reviews in survival data clinical trials.

This paper presents practical approaches to the problem of sample size re-estimation in the case of clinical trials with survival data when proportional hazards can be assumed. When data are readily available at the time of the review, on a full range of survival experiences across the recruited patients, it is shown that, as expected, performing a blinded re-estimation procedure is straightforward and can help to maintain the trial's pre-specified error rates. Two alternative methods for dealing with the situation where limited survival experiences are available at the time of the sample size review are then presented and compared. In this instance, extrapolation is required in order to undertake the sample size re-estimation. Worked examples, together with results from a simulation study are described. It is concluded that, as in the standard case, use of either extrapolation approach successfully protects the trial error rates. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using Spatiotemporal Methods to Fill Gaps In Energy Usage Interval Data

Researchers analyzing spatiotemporal or panel data, which varies both in location and over time, often find that their data has holes or gaps. This thesis explores alternative methods for filling those gaps and also suggests a set of techniques for evaluating those gap-filling methods to determine which works best.

Evaluation of different methods of cooling-lubrication in cylindrical grinding of advanced ceramic dip

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Accuracy, precision and robustness of different methods to obtain samples from silages in fermentation studies

The objective of this study was to evaluate accuracy, precision and robustness of two methods to obtain silage samples, in comparison with extraction of liquor by manual screw-press. Wet brewery residue alone or combined with soybean hulls and citrus pulp were ensiled in laboratory silos. Liquor was extracted by a manual screw-press and a 2-mL aliquot was fixed with 0.4 mL formic acid. Two 10-g silage samples from each silo were diluted in 20 mL deionized water or 17% formic acid solution (alternative methods). Aliquots obtained by the three methods were used to determine the silage contents of fermentation end-products. The accuracy of the alternative methods was evaluated by comparing mean bias of estimates obtained by manual screw-press and by alternative methods, whereas precision was assessed by the root mean square prediction error and the residual error. Robustness was determined by studying the interaction between bias and chemical components, pH, in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and buffer capacity. The 17% formic acid method was more accurate for estimating acetic, butyric and lactic acids, although it resulted in low overestimates of propionic acid and underestimates of ethanol. The deionized water method overestimated acetic and propionic acids and slightly underestimated ethanol. The 17% formic acid method was more precise than deionized water for estimating all organic acids and ethanol. The robustness of each method with respect to variation in the silage chemical composition, IVDMD and pH is dependent on the fermentation end-product at evaluation. The robustness of the alternative methods seems to be critical at the determination of lactic acid and ethanol contents.

Biofilms on exposed monumental stones: mechanism of formation and development of new control methods

Within the stone monumental artefacts artistic fountains are extremely favorable to formation of biofilms, giving rise to biodegradation processes related with physical-chemical and visual aspect alterations, because of their particular exposure conditions. Microbial diversity of five fountains (two from Spain and three from Italy) was investigated. It was observed an ample similarity between the biodiversity of monumental stones reported in literature and that one found in studied fountains. Mechanical procedures and toxic chemical products are usually employed to remove such phototrophic patinas. Alternative methods based on natural antifouling substances are recently experimented in the marine sector, due to their very low environmental impact and for the bio settlement prevention on partially immersed structures of ships. In the present work groups of antibiofouling agents (ABAs) were selected from literature for their ability to interfere, at molecular level, with the microbial communication system “quorum sensing”, inhibiting the initial phase of biofilm formation. The efficacy of some natural antibiofoulants agents (ABAs) with terrestrial (Capsaicine - CS, Cinnamaldehyde - CI) and marine origin (Zosteric Acid - ZA, poly-Alkyl Pyridinium Salts – pAPS and Ceramium botryocarpum extract - CBE), incorporated into two commercial coatings (Silres BS OH 100 - S and Wacker Silres BS 290 - W) commonly used in stone conservation procedures were evaluated. The formation of phototrophic biofilms in laboratory conditions (on Carrara marble specimens and Sierra Elvira stone) and on two monumental fountains (Tacca’s Fountain 2 - Florence, Italy and Fountain from Patio de la Lindaraja - Alhambra Palace, Granada, Spain) has been investigated in the presence or absence of these natural antifouling agents. The natural antibiofouling agents, at tested concentrations, demonstrated a certain inhibitory effect. The silane-siloxane based silicone coating (W) mixing with ABAs was more suitable with respect to ethyl silicate coating (S) and proved efficacy against biofilm formation only when incompletely cured. The laboratory results indicated a positive action in inhibiting the patina formation, especially for poly-alkyl pyridinium salts, zosteric acid and cinnamaldehyde, while on site tests revealed a good effect for zosteric acid.

Modelling wake effects in large wind farms in complex terrain: the problem, the methods and the issues

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods are used in this paper to predict the power production from entire wind farms in complex terrain and to shed some light into the wake flow patterns. Two full three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible fluid flow, employing k − ϵ and k − ω turbulence closures, are used. The wind turbines are modeled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient through the actuator disk approach. Alternative methods for estimating the reference wind speed in the calculation of the thrust are tested. The work presented in this paper is part of the work being undertaken within the UpWind Integrated Project that aims to develop the design tools for next generation of large wind turbines. In this part of UpWind, the performance of wind farm and wake models is being examined in complex terrain environment where there are few pre-existing relevant measurements. The focus of the work being carried out is to evaluate the performance of CFD models in large wind farm applications in complex terrain and to examine the development of the wakes in a complex terrain environment.

Evaluation of Two Alternative Procedures for Measuring Airflow Resistance of Sound Absorbing Materials

It is well known that sound absorption and sound transmission properties of open porous materials are highly dependent on their airflow resistance values. Low values of airflow resistance indicate little resistance for air streaming through the porous material and high values are a sign that most of the pores inside the material are closed. The laboratory procedures for measuring airflow resistance have been stan- dardized by several organizations, including ISO and ASTM for both alternate flow and continuous flow. However, practical implementation of these standardized methods could be both complex and expensive. In this work, two indirect alternative measurement procedures were compared against the alternate flow standardized technique. The techniques were tested using three families of eco-friendly sound absorbent materials: recycled polyurethane foams, coconut natural fibres, and recycled polyester fibres. It is found that the values of airflow resistance measured using both alternative methods are very similar. There is also a good correlation between the values obtained through alternative and standardized methods.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small-scale randomized controlled trials need more powerful methods of mediational analysis than the Baron-Kenny method

Objective: To devise more-effective physical activity interventions, the mediating mechanisms yielding behavioral change need to be identified. The Baron-Kenny method is most commonly used. but has low statistical power and May not identify mechanisms of behavioral change in small-to-medium size Studies. More powerful statistical tests are available, Study Design and Setting: Inactive adults (N = 52) were randomized to either a print or a print-plus-telephone intervention. Walking and exercise-related social support Were assessed at baseline, after file intervention, and 4 weeks later. The Baron-Kenny and three alternative methods of mediational analysis (Freedman-Schatzkin; MacKinnon et al.: bootstrap method) were used to examine the effects of social support on initial behavior change and maintenance. Results: A significant mediational effect of social support on initial behavior change was indicated by the MacKinnon et al., bootstrap. and. marginally. Freedman-Schatzkin methods, but not by the Baron-Kenny method. No significant mediational effecl of social support on maintenance of walking was found. Conclusions: Methodologically rigorous intervention studies to identify mediators of change in physical activity are costly and labor intensive, and may not be feasible with large samples. The Use of statistically powerful tests of mediational effects in small-scale studies can inform the development of more effective interventions. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.