Drug suicide: a sex-equal cause of death in 16 European countries

Background There is a lack of international research on suicide by drug overdose as a preventable suicide method. Sex- and age-specific rates of suicide by drug self-poisoning (ICD-10, X60-64) and the distribution of drug types used in 16 European countries were studied, and compared with other self-poisoning methods (X65-69) and intentional self-injury (X70-84). Methods Data for 2000-04/05 were collected from national statistical offices. Age-adjusted suicide rates, and age and sex distributions, were calculated. Results No pronounced sex differences in drug self-poisoning rates were found, either in the aggregate data (males 1.6 and females 1.5 per 100,000) or within individual countries. Among the 16 countries, the range (from some 0.3 in Portugal to 5.0 in Finland) was wide. 'Other and unspecified drugs' (X64) were recorded most frequently, with a range of 0.2-1.9, and accounted for more than 70% of deaths by drug overdose in France, Luxembourg, Portugal and Spain. Psychotropic drugs (X61) ranked second. The X63 category ('other drugs acting on the autonomic nervous system') was least frequently used. Finland showed low X64 and high X61 figures, Scotland had high levels of X62 ('narcotics and hallucinogens, not elsewhere classified') for both sexes, while England exceeded other countries in category X60. Risk was highest among the middle-aged everywhere except in Switzerland, where the elderly were most at risk. Conclusions Suicide by drug overdose is preventable. Intentional self-poisoning with drugs kills as many males as females. The considerable differences in patterns of self-poisoning found in the various European countries are relevant to national efforts to improve diagnostics of suicide and appropriate specific prevention. The fact that vast majority of drug-overdose suicides came under the category X64 refers to the need of more detailed ICD coding system for overdose suicides is needed to permit better design of suicide-prevention strategies at national level.

Inequality in Income and Wealth in Switzerland from 1970 to 2010

The supposed rise of inequality in income and wealth is a much-discussed issue. Since in a number of industrialized countries a trend towards more inequality was observed over the last decades, it is often assumed that Switzerland has experienced a similar development. Yet, although a variety of studies exists that provide inequality estimates for the Swiss society at different points in time, no conclusive picture of the changes in inequality can be drawn from these studies. For example, recent estimates by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office indicate that – against expectations – inequality in disposable equivalent-incomes has not risen since the end of the 1990ies, whereas other studies indicate that earnings from employment – especially top salaries – have become more unequal. The reasons for the inconclusive picture are manifold. For example, trends might have been different for different income types and results might strongly depend on the quality of the used data. To close the knowledge gap in inequality research in Switzerland a new Swiss National Science Foundation project by the University of Bern and the Bern University of Applied Sciences has been started in 2013. Individual tax data from cantons will be analyzed along with aggregate data from the Swiss Federal Tax Administration, covering a period from the early 1970ies to the present. The goal is to gain a systematic overview of the development of inequality in income and wealth in Switzerland as a whole and within cantons, and to determine how changes can be explained. In our talk we will present first results from this project.

A review of the Malaria Chemoprophylaxis Compliance Program at ExxonMobil Corporation

ExxonMobil, a Fortune 500 oil and gas corporation, has a global workforce with employees assigned to projects in areas at risk for infectious diseases, particularly malaria. As such, the corporation has put in place a program to protect the health of workers and ensure their safety in malaria endemic zones. This program is called the Malaria Control Program (MCP). One component of this program is the more specific Malaria Chemoprophylaxis Compliance Program (MCCP), in which employees enroll following consent to random drug testing for compliance with the company's chemoprophylaxis requirements. Each year, data is gathered on the number of employees working in these locations and are selected randomly and tested for chemoprophylaxis compliance. The selection strives to test each eligible worker once per year. Test results that come back positive for the chemoprophylaxis drug are considered "detects" and tests that are negative for the drug and therefore show the worker is non-compliant at risk for severe malaria infection are considered "non-detect". ^ The current practice report used aggregate data to calculate statistics on test results to reflect compliance among both employees and contractors in various malaria-endemic areas. This aggregate, non-individualized data has been compiled and reflects the effectiveness and reach of ExxonMobil's Malaria Chemoprophylaxis Compliance Program. In order to assess compliance, information on the number of non-detect test results was compared to the number of tests completed per year. The data shows that over time, non-detect results have declined in both employee and contractor populations, and vary somewhat by location due to size and scope of the MCCP implemented in-country. Although the data indicate a positive trend for the corporation, some recommendations have been made for future implementation of the program.^

Election Studies in India

The election system is the pillar of Indian democracy. The system consists of various levels of elections to the Lok Sabha (the House of Representatives of the Union), State Legislative Assemblies, and Panchayati Raj Institutions (local self-governing bodies under State Governments). This article includes a review of studies related to the elections of Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies conducted up to the present time. Studies are divided into those based on aggregate data and those based on survey data of the individual electorate. This division has the advantage of providing data that may be used in different analytical areas. Voter turnout and votes polled by party are the two main variables to be explained. This review article thus shows what has been explained in voting behaviour in India up to the present time.

Unblocking the Lifeline of Talent. CEPS Policy Brief No. 306, 6 December 2013

Against the background of looming demographic decline, the departure of the baby-boom generation from European labour markets and growing economic competitiveness from emerging economies, this CEPS Policy Brief, published jointly with the Bertelsmann Stiftung, looks into the potential benefits of increased intra-EU labour mobility. The authors examine the ‘German case’ on EU labour mobility, digging below the surface of the aggregate data. They offer proposals on how to foster a European fair deal on talent, one that would benefit the EU as a whole. The paper concludes with policy recommendations on how to increase the potential benefits of the freedom of movement for both individual EU citizens and for the EU as a whole.

Interactions between landcover pattern and geospatial processing methods:effects on landscape metrics and classification accuracy

Remote sensing data is routinely used in ecology to investigate the relationship between landscape pattern as characterised by land use and land cover maps, and ecological processes. Multiple factors related to the representation of geographic phenomenon have been shown to affect characterisation of landscape pattern resulting in spatial uncertainty. This study investigated the effect of the interaction between landscape spatial pattern and geospatial processing methods statistically; unlike most papers which consider the effect of each factor in isolation only. This is important since data used to calculate landscape metrics typically undergo a series of data abstraction processing tasks and are rarely performed in isolation. The geospatial processing methods tested were the aggregation method and the choice of pixel size used to aggregate data. These were compared to two components of landscape pattern, spatial heterogeneity and the proportion of landcover class area. The interactions and their effect on the final landcover map were described using landscape metrics to measure landscape pattern and classification accuracy (response variables). All landscape metrics and classification accuracy were shown to be affected by both landscape pattern and by processing methods. Large variability in the response of those variables and interactions between the explanatory variables were observed. However, even though interactions occurred, this only affected the magnitude of the difference in landscape metric values. Thus, provided that the same processing methods are used, landscapes should retain their ranking when their landscape metrics are compared. For example, highly fragmented landscapes will always have larger values for the landscape metric "number of patches" than less fragmented landscapes. But the magnitude of difference between the landscapes may change and therefore absolute values of landscape metrics may need to be interpreted with caution. The explanatory variables which had the largest effects were spatial heterogeneity and pixel size. These explanatory variables tended to result in large main effects and large interactions. The high variability in the response variables and the interaction of the explanatory variables indicate it would be difficult to make generalisations about the impact of processing on landscape pattern as only two processing methods were tested and it is likely that untested processing methods will potentially result in even greater spatial uncertainty. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Voting with their feet: Migration, partisanship, and party-safe elections in Florida

Political scientists have long noted that Congressional elections are often uncompetitive, often extremely so. Many scholars argue that the cause lies in the partisan redistricting of Congressional districts, or “gerrymandering”. Other scholars emphasize polarization created by a fragmented news media, or the candidate choices made by a more ideological primary electorate. All these explanations identify the cause of party-safe elections in institutions of various kinds. This dissertation, by contrast, presents a structural explanation of uncompetitive elections. My theory is that population composition and patterns of migration are significant causes and predictors of election results in Florida. I test this theory empirically by comparing the predictions from four hypotheses against aggregate data, using the county as the unit of analysis. The first hypothesis is that Florida can be divided into clearly distinguishable, persistent partisan sections. This hypothesis is confirmed. The second hypothesis is that Florida voters have become increasingly partisan over time. This hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis is that the degree of migration into a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis is partially confirmed, for the migration effect appears to have waned over time. The last hypothesis is that the degree of religiosity of a county population is a predictor of how that county will vote. This hypothesis is also supported by the results of statistical analysis. By identifying the structural causes of party-safe elections, this dissertation not only broadens our understanding of elections in Florida, but also sheds light on the current polarization in American politics.

Efeito de diferentes divisões territoriais na flutuação aleatória de indicadores socioeconômicos relacionados à determinação social da saúde

This research aimed to analyse the effect of different territorial divisions in the random fluctuation of socio-economic indicators related to social determinants of health. This is an ecological study resulting from a combination of statistical methods including individuated and aggregate data analysis, using five databases derived from the database of the Brazilian demographic census 2010: overall results of the sample by weighting area. These data were grouped into the following levels: households; weighting areas; cities; Immediate Urban Associated Regions and Intermediate Urban Associated Regions. A theoretical model related to social determinants of health was used, with the dependent variable Household with death and as independent variables: Black race; Income; Childcare and school no attendance; Illiteracy; and Low schooling. The data was analysed in a model related to social determinants of health, using Poisson regression in individual basis, multilevel Poisson regression and multiple linear regression in light of the theoretical framework of the area. It was identified a greater proportion of households with deaths among those with at least one black resident, lower-income, illiterate, who do not attend or attended school or day-care and less educated. The analysis of the adjusted model showed that most adjusted prevalence ratio was related to Income, where there is a risk value of 1.33 for households with at least one resident with lower average personal income to R$ 655,00 (Brazilian current). The multilevel analysis demonstrated that there was a context effect when the variables were subjected to the effects of areas, insofar as the random effects were significant for all models and with different prevalence rates being higher in the areas with smaller dimensions - Weighting areas with coefficient of 0.035 and Cities with coefficient of 0.024. The ecological analyses have shown that the variable Income and Low schooling presented explanatory potential for the outcome on all models, having income greater power to determine the household deaths, especially in models related to Immediate Urban Associated Regions with a standardized coefficient of -0.616 and regions intermediate urban associated regions with a standardized coefficient of -0.618. It was concluded that there was a context effect on the random fluctuation of the socioeconomic indicators related to social determinants of health. This effect was explained by the characteristics of territorial divisions and individuals who live or work there. Context effects were better identified in the areas with smaller dimensions, which are more favourable to explain phenomena related to social determinants of health, especially in studies of societies marked by social inequalities. The composition effects were better identified in the Regions of Urban Articulation, shaped through mechanisms similar to the phenomenon under study.

Healing wounds institutional strength, peacebuilding, and productive entrepreneurship – exploratory analysis on 23 departments of Colombia

Este estudio presenta un análisis exploratorio sobre la correlación entre la fortaleza institucional, las condiciones de paz, y el emprendimiento en una muestra de 23 departamentos en Colombia usando datos de 2014. Para llevar a cabo este objetivo se propusieron y construyeron tres índices siguiendo definiciones conceptuales seminales o estándares de evaluación internacional, a saber: 1) El Índice de Fortaleza Institucional, 2) El Índice de Construcción de Paz (construido a partir del índice de paz negativa y el índice de paz positiva) y 3) El Índice de Emprendimiento Productivo. Los resultados no muestran una correlación significativa entre todos los tres índices. Por un lado, existe una correlación significativa (p<0.05) entre los índices de fortaleza institucional y emprendimiento productivo. Por otro lado, existen correlaciones negativas no significativas entre los índices de paz positiva y fortaleza institucional, emprendimiento productivo y paz positiva y emprendimiento productivo y construcción de paz. En un segundo acercamiento, la población de los departamentos fue la variable con mayor número de correlaciones significativas (p<0.01) entre variables relacionadas con emprendimiento productivo, empleo, producto interno bruto, sofisticación industrial, innovación (patentes) y crimen. Finalmente, se discuten las conclusiones y las futuras investigaciones.

Economic preferences in the health setting. Three case studies concerning the needs of breast cancer patients, pain management in oncology and extreme end-of-life decisions

The thesis describes three studies concerning the role of the Economic Preference set investigated in the Global Preference Survey (GPS) in the following cases: 1) the needs of women with breast cancer; 2) pain undertreament in oncology; 3) legal status of euthanasia and assisted suicide. The analyses, based on regression techniques, were always conducted on the basis of aggregate data and revealed in all cases a possible role of the Economic Preferences studied, also resisting the concomitant effect of the other covariates that were considered from time to time. Regarding individual studies, the related conclusion are: 1) Economic Preferences appear to play a role in influencing the needs of women with breast cancer, albeit of non-trivial interpretation, statistically "resisting" the concomitant effect of the other independent variables considered. However, these results should be considered preliminary and need further confirmation, possibly with prospective studies conducted at the level of the individual; 2) the results show a good degree of internal consistency with regard to pro-social GPS scores, since they are all found to be non-statistically significant and united, albeit only weakly in trend, by a negative correlation with the % of pain undertreated patients. Sharper, at least statistically, is the role of Patience and Willingness to Take Risk, although of more complex empirical interpretation. 3) the results seem to indicate an obvious role of Economic Preferences, however difficult to interpret empirically. Less evidence, at least on the inferential level, emerged, however, regarding variables that, based on common sense, should play an even more obvious role than Economic Preferences in orienting attitudes toward euthanasia and assisted suicide, namely Healthcare System, Legal Origin, and Kinship Tightness; striking, in particular, is the inability to prove a role for the dominant religious orientation even with a simple bivariate analysis.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Evaluation of Experimental Data Obtained from Lightweight Aggregate Bridge Girders, HR-104, 1968

The use of lightweight aggregates in prestressed concrete is becoming more of a reality as our design criteria become more demanding. Bridge girders of greater lengths have been restricted from travel on many of our highways because the weight of the combined girders and transporting vehicle is excessive making hauls of any distance prohibitive. This, along with new safety recommendations, prompted the State of Iowa to investigate the use of lightweight aggregate bridge girders. A series of three projects was started to investigate the possibility of using lightweight aggregate in prestressed concrete. The object of this project is to study the effect which lightweight aggregate concrete has on the camber of bridge girders when used in a field situation.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Variable Speed Limits. Review and development of an aggregate indicator based on floating car data.

Changing factors (mainly traffic intensity and weather conditions) affecting road conditions require a suitable optimal speed at any time. To solve this problem, variable speed limit systems (VSL) ? as opposed to fixed limits ? have been developed in recent decades. This term has included a number of speed management systems, most notably dynamic speed limits (DSL). In order to avoid the indiscriminate use of both terms in the literature, this paper proposes a simple classification and offers a review of some experiences, how their effects are evaluated and their results This study also presents a key indicator, which measures the speed homogeneity and a methodology to obtain the data based on floating cars and GPS technology applying it to a case study on a section of the M30 urban motorway in Madrid (Spain).

On the use of likert-type scales in multilevel data:Influence on aggregate variables

In multilevel analyses, problems may arise when using Likert-type scales at the lowest level of analysis. Specifically, increases in variance should lead to greater censoring for the groups whose true scores fall at either end of the distribution. The current study used simulation methods to examine the influence of single-item Likert-type scale usage on ICC(1), ICC(2), and group-level correlations. Results revealed substantial underestimation of ICC(1) when using Likert-type scales with common response formats (e.g., 5 points). ICC(2) and group-level correlations were also underestimated, but to a lesser extent. Finally, the magnitude of underestimation was driven in large part to an interaction between Likert-type scale usage and the amounts of within- and between-group variance. © Sage Publications.