Modelling large-scale CO2 leakages in the North Sea

A three dimensional hydrodynamic model with a coupled carbonate speciation sub-model is used to simulate large additions of CO2into the North Sea, representing leakages at potential carbon sequestration sites. A range of leakage scenarios are conducted at two distinct release sites, allowing an analysis of the seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of impacts to the marine ecosystem. Seasonally stratified regions are shown to be more vulnerable to CO2release during the summer as the added CO2remains trapped beneath the thermocline, preventing outgasing to the atmosphere. On average, CO2 injected into the northern North Sea is shown to reside within the water column twice as long as an equivalent addition in the southern North Sea before reaching the atmosphere. Short-term leakages of 5000 tonnes CO2over a single day result in substantial acidification at the release sites (up to -1.92 pH units), with significant perturbations (greater than 0.1 pH units) generally confined to a 10 km radius. Long-term CO2leakages sustained for a year may result in extensive plumes of acidified seawater, carried by major advective pathways. Whilst such scenarios could be harmful to marine biota over confined spatial scales, continued unmitigated CO2emissions from fossil fuels are predicted to result in greater and more long-lived perturbations to the carbonate system over the next few decades.

Modelling solute and microorganism transport through a peri-alpine gravel aquifer by considering the aquifer as a dual porosity fractured medium.

Approach:
In-situ passive gradient comparative artificial tracer testing, undertaken using solutes (Uranine and Iodide), Bacteria (E.coli and P.putida) and bacteriophage (H40/1), permitted comparison of the mobility of different sized microorganisms relative to solutes in the sand and gravel aquifer underlying Dornach, Germany.
Tracer breakthrough curves reveal that even though uranine initially arrived at observation wells at the same time as microbiological tracers, maximum relative concentrations were sometimes less than those of microbiological tracers, while solute breakthrough curves proved more disperse.
Monitoring uranine breakthrough with depth suggested tracers arrived in observation wells in discrete 0.5m-1m thick intervals, over the aquifer’s 12m saturated thickness. Nearby exposures of aquifer material suggested that the aquifer consisted of sandy gravels enveloping sequences of open framework (OW) gravel up to 1m thick. Detailed examination of OW units revealed that they contained lenses of silty sand up to 1m long x 30cm thick., while granulometric data suggested that the gravel was two to three orders of magnitude more permeable than the enveloping sandy gravel.
Solute and microorganism tracer responses could not be simulated using conventional advective-dispersive equation solutions employing the same velocity and dispersion terms. By contrast solute tracer responses, modelled using a dual porosity approach for fractured media (DP-1D) corresponded well to observed field data. Simulating microorganism responses using the same transport terms, but no dual porosity term, generated good model fits and explained the higher relative concentration of the bacteria, compared to the non-reactive solute, even with first order removal to account for lower RR. Geologically, model results indicate that the silty units within open framework gravels are accessible to solute tracers, but not to microorganisms.
Importance:
Results highlight the benefits of geological observations developing appropriate conceptual models of solute and micro organism transport and in developing suitable numerical approaches to quantifying microorganism mobility at scales appropriate for the development of groundwater supply (wellhead) protection zones.

Field and Laboratory Tests of Flow-Proportional Passive Samplers for Determining Average Phosphorus and Nitrogen Concentration in Rivers

Flow responsive passive samplers offer considerable potential in nutrient monitoring in catchments; bridging the gap between the intermittency of grab sampling and the high cost of automated monitoring systems. A commercially available passive sampler was evaluated in a number of river systems encapsulating a gradient in storm response, combinations of diffuse and point source pressures, and levels of phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations. Phosphorus and nitrogen are sequestered to a resin matrix in a permeable cartridge positioned in line with streamflow. A salt tracer dissolves in proportion to advective flow through the cartridge. Multiple deployments of different cartridge types were undertaken and the recovery of P and N compared with the flow-weighted mean concentration (FWMC) from high-resolution bank-side analysers at each site. Results from the passive samplers were variable and largely underestimated the FWMC derived from the bank-side analysers. Laboratory tests using ambient river samples indicated good replication of advective throughflow using pumped water, although this appeared not to be a good analogue of river conditions where flow divergence was possible. Laboratory tests also showed good nutrient retention but not elution and these issues appeared to combine to limit the utility in ambient river systems at the small catchment scale.

On the nudging terms at open boundaries in regional ocean models

For open boundary conditions (OBCs) in regional models, a nudging term added to radiative and/or advective conditions during the wave or flow propagation outward from the model domain of interest is widely used, to prevent the predicted boundary values from evolving to become quite different from the external data, especially for a long-term integration. However, nudging time scales are basically unknown, leading to many empirical selections. In this paper, a method for objectively estimating nudging time scales during outward propagation is proposed, by using internal model dynamics near the boundary. We tested this method and other several commonly used OBCs for cases of both an idealized model domain and a realistic configuration, and model results demonstrated that the proposed method improves the model solutions. Many similarities are found between the nudging and mixing time scales, in magnitude, spatial and temporal variations, since the nudging mainly replaces the effect of the mixing terms in this study. However, the mixing time scale is not an intrinsic property of the nudging term because in other studies the nudging term might replace terms other than the mixing terms and, thus, should reflect other characteristic time scales.

Hydrological and photochemical influence on dynamics of estuarine bacteria

Os estuários são ecossistemas complexos, onde os processos físicos, químicos e biológicos estão intimamente ligados. A dinâmica bacteriana num estuário reflete a interação e a elevada variação temporal e espacial desses processos. Este trabalho teve como objetivo elucidar as interações entre os processos físicos, fotoquímicos e microbiológicos no sistema estuarino da Ria de Aveiro (Portugal). Para tal, foi realizada uma abordagem inicial no campo, durante a qual as comunidades bacterianas na coluna de água foram caracterizadas em termos de abundância e atividade ao longo de 2 anos. O estudo foi realizado em dois locais distintos, escolhidos por tipificarem as características marinhas e salobras do estuário. Estes locais possuem diferentes hidrodinâmicas, influências fluviais e, quantidade e composição de matéria orgânica. Numa perspectiva mecanicista, foram realizadas simulações laboratoriais no sentido de elucidar a resposta das bactérias à matéria orgânica foto-transformada. As comunidades bacterianas no estuário adaptam-se a diferentes regimes de água doce, desenvolvendo padrões de abundância e atividade distintos nas zonas marinha e salobra. Os elevados caudais dos rios induzem estratificação vertical na zona marinha, promovendo o fluxo de fitoplâncton do mar para o estuário, do bacterioplâncton do estuário para o mar, e estimulam a importação de bactérias aderentes a partículas na zona salobra. O transporte advectivo e os processos de ressuspensão contribuem para aumentar 3 vezes o número de bactérias aderentes a partículas durante os períodos de intensas descargas fluviais. Adicionalmente, a atividade bacteriana no estuário é controlada pela concentração de azoto inerente à variações de água doce. O fornecimento de azoto em associação com a fonte dos substratos bacterianos induzem alterações significativas na produtividade. O padrão de variação vertical de comunidades bacterianas foi distinto nas duas zonas do estuário. Na zona marinha, as bactérias na microcamada superficial (SML) apresentaram taxas de hidrólise mais elevadas, mas menores taxas de incorporação de monómeros e produção de biomassa que na água subjacente (UW), enquanto na zona salobra, as taxas de hidrólise e incorporação foram similares nos dois compartimentos, mas a produtividade foi significativamente mais elevada na SML. Apesar da abundância bacteriana ter sido semelhante na SML e UW, a fração de células aderentes a partículas foi significativamente maior na SML (2-3 vezes), em ambas as zonas do estuário. A integração dos resultados microbiológicos com as variáveis ambientais e hidrológicos mostraram que fortes correntes na zona marinha promovem a mistura vertical, inibindo o estabelecimento de uma comunidade bacteriana na SML distinta da UW. Em contraste, na zona de água salobra, a menor velocidades das correntes fornece as condições adequadas ao aumento da atividade bacteriana na SML. Características específicas do local, tais como a hidrodinâmica e as fontes e composição da matéria orgânica, conduzem também a diferentes graus de enriquecimento superficial de matéria orgânica e inorgânica, influenciando a sua transformação. Em geral, o ambiente da SML estuarina favorece a hidrólise de polímeros, mas inibe a utilização de monómeros, comparativamente com água subjacente. No entanto, as diferenças entre as duas comunidades tendem a atenuar-se com o aumento da atividade heterotrófica na zona salobra. A matéria orgânica dissolvida cromófora (CDOM) das duas zonas do estuário possui diferentes características espectrais, com maior aromaticidade e peso molecular médio (HMW) na zona de água salobra, em comparação com a zona marinha. Nesta zona, a abundância bacteriana correlacionou-se com a350 e a254, sugerindo uma contribuição indireta das bactéria para HMW CDOM. A irradiação do DOM resultou numa diminuição dos valores de a254 e a350, e, em um aumento do declive S275-295 e dos rácios E2:E3 (a250/a365) e SR. No entanto, a extensão de transformações foto-induzidas e as respostas microbianas são dependentes das características iniciais CDOM, inferidas a partir das suas propriedades ópticas. A dinâmica estuarina influencia claramente as atividades heterotróficas e a distribuição dos microorganismos na coluna de água. A entrada de água doce influencia a dinâmica e os principais reguladores das comunidades bacterianas no estuário. Os processos fotoquímicos e microbianos produzem alterações nas propriedades ópticas da CDOM e a combinação desses processos determina o resultado global e o destino da CDOM nos sistemas estuarinos com influência na produtividade nas áreas costeiras adjacente.

Descarga costeira de águas subterrâneas com elevado conteúdo em nitratos para a Ria Formosa

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Marinhos e Costeiros, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e Ambiente, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

Étude de l'influence de la perte de masse sur l'évolution d'étoiles de plusieurs types

Cette thèse a été réalisée en cotutelle. Pour la forme, Gérard Jasniewicz était mon codirecteur 'officiel' en France, bien que mon codirecteur était plutôt Olivier Richard qui m'a encadré lorsque j'étais en France.

Impacts de l'écoulement souterrain sur la dégradation du pergélisol

Les changements climatiques mesurés dans le Nord-ouest canadien au cours du XXIe siècle entraînent une dégradation du pergélisol. Certaines des principales conséquences physiques sont la fonte de la glace interstitielle lors du dégel du pergélisol, l’affaissement du sol et la réorganisation des réseaux de drainage. L’effet est particulièrement marqué pour les routes bâties sur le pergélisol, où des dépressions et des fentes se créent de façon récurrente, rendant la conduite dangereuse. Des observations et mesures de terrain effectuées à Beaver Creek (Yukon) entre 2008 et 2011 ont démontré qu’un autre processus très peu étudié et quantifié dégradait le pergélisol de façon rapide, soit la chaleur transmise au pergélisol par l’écoulement souterrain. Suite aux mesures de terrain effectuées (relevé topographique, étude géotechnique du sol, détermination de la hauteur de la nappe phréatique et des chenaux d’écoulement préférentiels, température de l’eau et du sol, profondeur du pergélisol et de la couche active), des modèles de transfert de chaleur par conduction et par advection ont été produits. Les résultats démontrent que l’écoulement souterrain dans la couche active et les zones de talik contribue à la détérioration du pergélisol via différents processus de transfert de chaleur conducto-convectifs. L’écoulement souterrain devrait être pris en considération dans tous les modèles et scénarios de dégradation du pergélisol. Avec une bonne caractérisation de l’environnement, le modèle de transfert de chaleur élaboré au cours de la présente recherche est applicable dans d’autres zones de pergélisol discontinu.

Meteorological aspects of an abnormal cooling event over Iran in April 2009

During the period from 12 to 15 April, 2009 nearly the entire Iran, apart from the southern border, experienced an advective cooling event. While winter freezing concerns are typical, the nature of this freezing event was unusual with respect to its date of occurrence and accompanying synoptic meteorological situation. To analyze the freezing event, the relevant meteorological data at multiple levels of the atmosphere were examined from the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis dataset. The results showed that a polar vortex was responsible for the freezing event over the country extending southward extraordinarily in such a way that its ridge influenced most parts of Iran. This was recognized as an abnormal extension of a polar vortex in the recent years. The sea-level pressure fields indicated that a ridge of large-scale anticyclone centered over Black Sea extended southward and prevailed over most parts of Iran. This resulted in the formation of a severe cold air advection from high latitudes (Polar region) over Iran. During the study period, moisture pumping was observed from the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. The winds at 1000 hPa level blew with a magnitude of 10 m s-1 toward south in the region of convergence (between -2 9 10-6 s-1 and -12 9 10-6 s-1). The vertical profilesof temperature and humidity also indicated that the ICE structural icing occurred at multiple levels of the atmosphere, i.e, from 800 hPa through 400 hPa levels. In addition to the carburetor (or induction), icing occurred between 900 and 700 hPa levels in the selected radiosonde stations during the study period. In addition, the HYSPLIT backward trajectory model outputs were in quite good agreement with the observed synoptic features

Illustration of micro-scale advection using grid-pattern mini-lysimeters

Twenty-five small soil-filled perspex boxes arranged in a square, with dwarf sunflowers growing in them, were used to study micro-scale advection. Hydrological heterogeneity was introduced by applying two different amounts of irrigation water (low-irrigation, L, versus high-irrigation, H). The nine central boxes (4 H, 4 L and I bare box) were precision weighing lysimeters, yielding diurnal measurements of evaporation. After the onset of soil water stress, a large difference in latent heat flux (up to 4-fold) was observed between the lysimeters of the H and L treatments, mainly caused by large differences between H and L stomatal conductance values. This resulted in micro-advection, causing H soil-sunflower systems to evaporate well above equilibrium latent heat flux. The occurrence of micro-advective enhancement was reflected in large values of the Priestley-Taylor constant (often larger than 2.0) and generally negative values of sensible heat flux for the H treatment. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The turnover of organic carbon in subsoils. Part 2. Modelling carbon turnover

A new model, RothPC-1, is described for the turnover of organic C in the top metre of soil. RothPC-1 is a version of RothC-26.3, an earlier model for the turnover of C in topsoils. In RothPC-1 two extra parameters are used to model turnover in the top metre of soil: one, p, which moves organic C down the profile by an advective process, and the other, s, which slows decomposition with depth. RothPC-1 is parameterized and tested using measurements (described in Part 1, this issue) of total organic C and radiocarbon on soil profiles from the Rothamsted long-term field experiments, collected over a period of more than 100 years. RothPC-1 gives fits to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon in the 0-23, 23-46, 46-69 and 69-92 cm layers of soil that are almost all within (or close to) measurement error in two areas of regenerating woodland (Geescroft and Broadbalk Wildernesses) and an area of cultivated land from the Broadbalk Continuous Wheat Experiment. The fits to old grassland (the Park Grass Experiment) are less close. Two other sites that provide the requisite pre- and post-bomb data are also fitted; a prairie Chernozem from Russia and an annual grassland from California. Roth-PC-1 gives a close fit to measurements of organic C and radiocarbon down the Chernozem profile, provided that allowance is made for soil age; with the annual grassland the fit is acceptable in the upper part of the profile, but not in the clay-rich Bt horizon below. Calculations suggest that treating the top metre of soil as a homogeneous unit will greatly overestimate the effects of global warming in accelerating the decomposition of soil C and hence on the enhanced release of CO2 from soil organic matter; more realistic estimates will be obtained from multi-layer models such as RothPC-1.

A nutrient increment method for reducing bias in global biogeochemical models

Assimilation of physical variables into coupled physical/biogeochemical models poses considerable difficulties. One problem is that data assimilation can break relationships between physical and biological variables. As a consequence, biological tracers, especially nutrients, are incorrectly displaced in the vertical, resulting in unrealistic biogeochemical fields. To prevent this, we present the idea of applying an increment to the nutrient field within a data assimilating model to ensure that nutrient-potential density relationships are maintained within a water column during assimilation. After correcting the nutrients, it is assumed that other biological variables rapidly adjust to the corrected nutrient fields. We applied this method to a 17 year run of the 2° NEMO ocean-ice model coupled to the PlankTOM5 ecosystem model. Results were compared with a control with no assimilation, and with a model with physical assimilation but no nutrient increment. In the nutrient incrementing experiment, phosphate distributions were improved both at high latitudes and at the equator. At midlatitudes, assimilation generated unrealistic advective upwelling of nutrients within the boundary currents, which spread into the subtropical gyres resulting in more biased nutrient fields. This result was largely unaffected by the nutrient increment and is probably due to boundary currents being poorly resolved in a 2° model. Changes to nutrient distributions fed through into other biological parameters altering primary production, air-sea CO2 flux, and chlorophyll distributions. These secondary changes were most pronounced in the subtropical gyres and at the equator, which are more nutrient limited than high latitudes.

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect on time-dependent climate change

In response to increasing atmospheric con- centrations of greenhouse gases, the rate of time- dependent climate change is determined jointly by the strength of climate feedbacks and the e�ciency of pro- cesses which remove heat from the surface into the deep ocean. This work examines the vertical heat transport processes in the ocean of the HADCM2 atmosphere± ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) in experi- ments with CO2 held constant (control) and increasing at 1% per year (anomaly). The control experiment shows that global average heat exchanges between the upper and lower ocean are dominated by the Southern Ocean, where heat is pumped downwards by the wind- driven circulation and di�uses upwards along sloping isopycnals. This is the reverse of the low-latitude balance used in upwelling±di�usion ocean models, the global average upward di�usive transport being against the temperature gradient. In the anomaly experiment, weakened convection at high latitudes leads to reduced diffusive and convective heat loss from the deep ocean, and hence to net heat uptake, since the advective heat input is less a�ected. Reduction of deep water produc- tion at high latitudes results in reduced upwelling of cold water at low latitudes, giving a further contribution to net heat uptake. On the global average, high-latitude processes thus have a controlling in¯uence. The impor- tant role of di�usion highlights the need to ensure that the schemes employed in AOGCMs give an accurate representation of the relevant sub-grid-scale processes.

Under what conditions does embedded convection enhance orographic precipitation?

Idealised convection-permitting simulations are used to quantify the impact of embedded convection on the precipitation generated by moist flow over midlatitude mountain ridges. A broad range of mountain dimensions and moist stabilities are considered to encompass a spectrum of physically plausible flows. The simulations reveal that convection only enhances orographic precipitation in cap clouds that are otherwise unable to efficiently convert cloud condensate into precipitate. For tall and wide mountains (e.g. the Washington Cascades or the southern Andes), precipitate forms efficiently through vapour deposition and collection, even in the absence of embedded convection. When embedded convection develops in such clouds, it produces competing effects (enhanced condensation in updraughts and enhanced evaporation through turbulent mixing and compensating subsidence) that cancel to yield little net change in precipitation. By contrast, convection strongly enhances precipitation over short and narrow mountains (e.g. the UK Pennines or the Oregon Coastal Range) where precipitation formation is otherwise highly inefficient. Although cancellation between increased condensation and evaporation still occurs, the enhanced precipitation formation within the convective updraughts leads to a net increase in precipitation efficiency. The simulations are physically interpreted through non-dimensional diagnostics and relevant time-scales that govern advective, microphysical, and convective processes.