Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Adaptive Real-time Anomaly-based Intrusion Detection using Data Mining and Machine Learning Techniques

Die zunehmende Vernetzung der Informations- und Kommunikationssysteme führt zu einer weiteren Erhöhung der Komplexität und damit auch zu einer weiteren Zunahme von Sicherheitslücken. Klassische Schutzmechanismen wie Firewall-Systeme und Anti-Malware-Lösungen bieten schon lange keinen Schutz mehr vor Eindringversuchen in IT-Infrastrukturen. Als ein sehr wirkungsvolles Instrument zum Schutz gegenüber Cyber-Attacken haben sich hierbei die Intrusion Detection Systeme (IDS) etabliert. Solche Systeme sammeln und analysieren Informationen von Netzwerkkomponenten und Rechnern, um ungewöhnliches Verhalten und Sicherheitsverletzungen automatisiert festzustellen. Während signatur-basierte Ansätze nur bereits bekannte Angriffsmuster detektieren können, sind anomalie-basierte IDS auch in der Lage, neue bisher unbekannte Angriffe (Zero-Day-Attacks) frühzeitig zu erkennen. Das Kernproblem von Intrusion Detection Systeme besteht jedoch in der optimalen Verarbeitung der gewaltigen Netzdaten und der Entwicklung eines in Echtzeit arbeitenden adaptiven Erkennungsmodells. Um diese Herausforderungen lösen zu können, stellt diese Dissertation ein Framework bereit, das aus zwei Hauptteilen besteht. Der erste Teil, OptiFilter genannt, verwendet ein dynamisches "Queuing Concept", um die zahlreich anfallenden Netzdaten weiter zu verarbeiten, baut fortlaufend Netzverbindungen auf, und exportiert strukturierte Input-Daten für das IDS. Den zweiten Teil stellt ein adaptiver Klassifikator dar, der ein Klassifikator-Modell basierend auf "Enhanced Growing Hierarchical Self Organizing Map" (EGHSOM), ein Modell für Netzwerk Normalzustand (NNB) und ein "Update Model" umfasst. In dem OptiFilter werden Tcpdump und SNMP traps benutzt, um die Netzwerkpakete und Hostereignisse fortlaufend zu aggregieren. Diese aggregierten Netzwerkpackete und Hostereignisse werden weiter analysiert und in Verbindungsvektoren umgewandelt. Zur Verbesserung der Erkennungsrate des adaptiven Klassifikators wird das künstliche neuronale Netz GHSOM intensiv untersucht und wesentlich weiterentwickelt. In dieser Dissertation werden unterschiedliche Ansätze vorgeschlagen und diskutiert. So wird eine classification-confidence margin threshold definiert, um die unbekannten bösartigen Verbindungen aufzudecken, die Stabilität der Wachstumstopologie durch neuartige Ansätze für die Initialisierung der Gewichtvektoren und durch die Stärkung der Winner Neuronen erhöht, und ein selbst-adaptives Verfahren eingeführt, um das Modell ständig aktualisieren zu können. Darüber hinaus besteht die Hauptaufgabe des NNB-Modells in der weiteren Untersuchung der erkannten unbekannten Verbindungen von der EGHSOM und der Überprüfung, ob sie normal sind. Jedoch, ändern sich die Netzverkehrsdaten wegen des Concept drif Phänomens ständig, was in Echtzeit zur Erzeugung nicht stationärer Netzdaten führt. Dieses Phänomen wird von dem Update-Modell besser kontrolliert. Das EGHSOM-Modell kann die neuen Anomalien effektiv erkennen und das NNB-Model passt die Änderungen in Netzdaten optimal an. Bei den experimentellen Untersuchungen hat das Framework erfolgversprechende Ergebnisse gezeigt. Im ersten Experiment wurde das Framework in Offline-Betriebsmodus evaluiert. Der OptiFilter wurde mit offline-, synthetischen- und realistischen Daten ausgewertet. Der adaptive Klassifikator wurde mit dem 10-Fold Cross Validation Verfahren evaluiert, um dessen Genauigkeit abzuschätzen. Im zweiten Experiment wurde das Framework auf einer 1 bis 10 GB Netzwerkstrecke installiert und im Online-Betriebsmodus in Echtzeit ausgewertet. Der OptiFilter hat erfolgreich die gewaltige Menge von Netzdaten in die strukturierten Verbindungsvektoren umgewandelt und der adaptive Klassifikator hat sie präzise klassifiziert. Die Vergleichsstudie zwischen dem entwickelten Framework und anderen bekannten IDS-Ansätzen zeigt, dass der vorgeschlagene IDSFramework alle anderen Ansätze übertrifft. Dies lässt sich auf folgende Kernpunkte zurückführen: Bearbeitung der gesammelten Netzdaten, Erreichung der besten Performanz (wie die Gesamtgenauigkeit), Detektieren unbekannter Verbindungen und Entwicklung des in Echtzeit arbeitenden Erkennungsmodells von Eindringversuchen.

Designing context-aware adaptive units of learning based on IMS-LD standard

Learning contents adaptation has been a subject of interest in the research area of the adaptive hypermedia systems. Defining which variables and which standards can be considered to model adaptive content delivery processes is one of the main challenges in pedagogical design over e-learning environments. In this paper some specifications, architectures and technologies that can be used in contents adaptation processes considering characteristics of the context are described and a proposal to integrate some of these characteristics in the design of units of learning using adaptation conditions in a structure of IMS-Learning Design (IMS-LD) is presented. The key contribution of this work is the generation of instructional designs considering the context, which can be used in Learning Management Systems (LMSs) and diverse mobile devices

Adaptive intelligent agent approach to guide the web navigation on the PLAN-G distance learning platform

Hypermedia systems based on the Web for open distance education are becoming increasingly popular as tools for user-driven access learning information. Adaptive hypermedia is a new direction in research within the area of user-adaptive systems, to increase its functionality by making it personalized [Eklu 961. This paper sketches a general agents architecture to include navigational adaptability and user-friendly processes which would guide and accompany the student during hislher learning on the PLAN-G hypermedia system (New Generation Telematics Platform to Support Open and Distance Learning), with the aid of computer networks and specifically WWW technology [Marz 98-1] [Marz 98-2]. The PLAN-G actual prototype is successfully used with some informatics courses (the current version has no agents yet). The propased multi-agent system, contains two different types of adaptive autonomous software agents: Personal Digital Agents {Interface), to interacl directly with the student when necessary; and Information Agents (Intermediaries), to filtrate and discover information to learn and to adapt navigation space to a specific student

eRules: a modular adaptive classification rule learning algorithm for data streams

Advances in hardware and software in the past decade allow to capture, record and process fast data streams at a large scale. The research area of data stream mining has emerged as a consequence from these advances in order to cope with the real time analysis of potentially large and changing data streams. Examples of data streams include Google searches, credit card transactions, telemetric data and data of continuous chemical production processes. In some cases the data can be processed in batches by traditional data mining approaches. However, in some applications it is required to analyse the data in real time as soon as it is being captured. Such cases are for example if the data stream is infinite, fast changing, or simply too large in size to be stored. One of the most important data mining techniques on data streams is classification. This involves training the classifier on the data stream in real time and adapting it to concept drifts. Most data stream classifiers are based on decision trees. However, it is well known in the data mining community that there is no single optimal algorithm. An algorithm may work well on one or several datasets but badly on others. This paper introduces eRules, a new rule based adaptive classifier for data streams, based on an evolving set of Rules. eRules induces a set of rules that is constantly evaluated and adapted to changes in the data stream by adding new and removing old rules. It is different from the more popular decision tree based classifiers as it tends to leave data instances rather unclassified than forcing a classification that could be wrong. The ongoing development of eRules aims to improve its accuracy further through dynamic parameter setting which will also address the problem of changing feature domain values.

State of the art of learning styles-based adaptive educational hypermedia systems (Ls-Baehss)

The notion that learning can be enhanced when a teaching approach matches a learner’s learning style has been widely accepted in classroom settings since the latter represents a predictor of student’s attitude and preferences. As such, the traditional approach of ‘one-size-fits-all’ as may be applied to teaching delivery in Educational Hypermedia Systems (EHSs) has to be changed with an approach that responds to users’ needs by exploiting their individual differences. However, establishing and implementing reliable approaches for matching the teaching delivery and modalities to learning styles still represents an innovation challenge which has to be tackled. In this paper, seventy six studies are objectively analysed for several goals. In order to reveal the value of integrating learning styles in EHSs, different perspectives in this context are discussed. Identifying the most effective learning style models as incorporated within AEHSs. Investigating the effectiveness of different approaches for modelling students’ individual learning traits is another goal of this study. Thus, the paper highlights a number of theoretical and technical issues of LS-BAEHSs to serve as a comprehensive guidance for researchers who interest in this area.

Frequency and precision of feedback and the adaptive process of learning a dual motor task

This work investigated the effects of frequency and precision of feedback on the learning of a dual-motor task. One hundred and twenty adults were randomly assigned to six groups of different knowledge of results (KR), frequency (100%, 66% or 33%) and precision (specific or general) levels. In the stabilization phase, participants performed the dual task (combination of linear positioning and manual force control) with the provision of KR. Ten non-KR adaptation trials were performed for the same task, but with the introduction of an electromagnetic opposite traction force. The analysis showed a significant main effect for frequency of KR. The participants who received KR in 66% of the stabilization trials showed superior adaptation performance than those who received 100% or 33%. This finding reinforces that there is an optimal level of information, neither too high nor too low, for motor learning to be effective.

Vigilancia tecnológica: un aprendizaje adaptativo a través del pensamiento divergente Technological surveillance: an adaptive learning through divergent thinking

El estudio de la evolución tecnológica a partir de logros concretos de la humanidad es una forma de aproximación a la enseñanza de la ingeniería. Comprender que las tecnologías existentes son el resultado de un depurado proceso de creación/selección no es trivial. Por ello combinar un conocimiento deductivo profundo con un pensamiento divergente que favorezca la obtención de soluciones viables y creativas es fundamental en el contexto de incertidumbre económica actual. En este ensayo se comparan siete técnicas de enseñanza que pretenden favorecer el PD en una estrategia adaptativa para alumnos con distintos estilos cognitivos (AA) sobre la base de un proceso de vigilancia tecnológica (VT) aplicada a algunos objetos cotidianos y otros muy especializados.

A feasibility study of self-learning adaptive flight control for high performance aircraft

"Technical report AFFDL-TR-67-18"

Adaptive back-propagation in on-line learning of multilayer networks

An adaptive back-propagation algorithm is studied and compared with gradient descent (standard back-propagation) for on-line learning in two-layer neural networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units. Within a statistical mechanics framework, both numerical studies and a rigorous analysis show that the adaptive back-propagation method results in faster training by breaking the symmetry between hidden units more efficiently and by providing faster convergence to optimal generalization than gradient descent.

On-line learning with adaptive back-propagation in two-layer networks

An adaptive back-propagation algorithm parameterized by an inverse temperature 1/T is studied and compared with gradient descent (standard back-propagation) for on-line learning in two-layer neural networks with an arbitrary number of hidden units. Within a statistical mechanics framework, we analyse these learning algorithms in both the symmetric and the convergence phase for finite learning rates in the case of uncorrelated teachers of similar but arbitrary length T. These analyses show that adaptive back-propagation results generally in faster training by breaking the symmetry between hidden units more efficiently and by providing faster convergence to optimal generalization than gradient descent.