Spatial distribution of dengue in the city of Cruzeiro, São Paulo State, Brazil: use of geoprocessing tools

Este artigo tem por objetivo identificar padrões na distribuição espacial dos casos de dengue ocorridos no município de Cruzeiro/SP, no ano de 2006. Trata-se de um estudo ecológico e exploratório que utiliza as ferramentas de análise espacial na elaboração de mapas temáticos, com dados obtidos do SinanNet. Foi feita uma análise por área, tomando-se como unidade o setor censitário do IBGE; a análise considerou quatro meses do ano de 2006 que mostra a ocorrência da doença no município. Os mapas temáticos foram construídos pelo programa computacional TerraView 3.3.1; assim como os valores dos índices de Moran Global (I M) mês a mês e o estimador de Kernel. Foram georreferenciados 691 casos de dengue (taxa de 864,2 casos/100.000 habitantes); os Índices de Moran e p-valores obtidos foram I M = 0,080 (março) p = 0,11; I M = 0,285 (abril) p = 0,01; I M = 0,201 (maio) p = 0,01 e I M = 0,002 (junho) p = 0,57. Os primeiros casos foram identificados na região nordeste e central e os últimos casos, na região norte, nordeste e central. Foi possível identificar os setores censitários onde a epidemia teve início e como ocorreu têmporo-espacialmente no município.

Modeling spatial distribution of cancer incidence in Cordoba, Argentina

Background: Cancer is the second leading cause of death in Argentina, and there is little knowledge about its incidence. The first study based on population-based cancer registry described spatial incidence and indicated that there existed at least county-level aggregation. The aim of the present work is to model the incidence patterns for the most incidence cancer in Córdoba Province, Argentina, using information from the Córdoba Cancer Registry by performing multilevel mixed model approach to deal with dependence and unobserved heterogeneity coming from the geo-reference cancer occurrence. Methods: Standardized incidence rates (world standard population) (SIR) by sex based on 5-year age groups were calculated for 109 districts nested on 26 counties for the most incidence cancers in Cordoba using 2004 database. A Poisson twolevel random effect model representing unobserved heterogeneity between first level-districts and second level-counties was fitted to assess the spatial distribution of the overall and site specific cancer incidence rates. Results: SIR cancer at Córdoba province shown an average of 263.53±138.34 and 200.45±98.30 for men and women, respectively. Considering the ratio site specific mean SIR to the total mean, breast cancer ratio was 0.25±0.19, prostate cancer ratio was 0.12±0.10 and lower values for lung and colon cancer for both sexes. The Poisson two-level random intercepts model fitted for SIR data distributed with overdispersion shown significant hierarchical structure for the cancer incidence distribution. Conclusions: a strong spatial-nested effect for the cancer incidence in Córdoba was observed and will help to begin the study of the factors associated with it.

Assessment of use of microsatellite polymorphism analysis for improving spatial distribution tracking of echinococcus multilocularis

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE)--caused by the cestode Echinococcus multilocularis--is a severe zoonotic disease found in temperate and arctic regions of the northern hemisphere. Even though the transmission patterns observed in different geographical areas are heterogeneous, the nuclear and mitochondrial targets usually used for the genotyping of E. multilocularis have shown only a marked genetic homogeneity in this species. We used microsatellite sequences, because of their high typing resolution, to explore the genetic diversity of E. multilocularis. Four microsatellite targets (EmsJ, EmsK, and EmsB, which were designed in our laboratory, and NAK1, selected from the literature) were tested on a panel of 76 E. multilocularis samples (larval and adult stages) obtained from Alaska, Canada, Europe, and Asia. Genetic diversity for each target was assessed by size polymorphism analysis. With the EmsJ and EmsK targets, two alleles were found for each locus, yielding two and three genotypes, respectively, discriminating European isolates from the other groups. With NAK1, five alleles were found, yielding seven genotypes, including those specific to Tibetan and Alaskan isolates. The EmsB target, a tandem repeated multilocus microsatellite, found 17 alleles showing a complex pattern. Hierarchical clustering analyses were performed with the EmsB findings, and 29 genotypes were identified. Due to its higher genetic polymorphism, EmsB exhibited a higher discriminatory power than the other targets. The complex EmsB pattern was able to discriminate isolates on a regional and sectoral level, while avoiding overdistinction. EmsB will be used to assess the putative emergence of E. multilocularis in Europe.

The spatial distribution of Copernicia alba (Morong) in the district of Bahia Negra, Paraguay

The Humid Chaco of Northeast Paraguay harbors monoculture palm savannas in which Copernicia alba is the only dominant overstory species. The study’s objective was to provide the complete spatial distribution of a simple ecosystem lacking confounding factors of overstory competition and changes in slope. Palms within six, 50 x 50m plots were marked by their GPS location and measured for dbh and total stem height. The spatial distribution was individually analyzed for each plot at the local scale up to 12 m using Ripley’s K test. For the total population including juvenile and adult plants, the sample plots contained both random and clustered distribution patterns. In each of the six plots, the juvenile populations exhibited more clustered patterns than the adult population of each plot.

Estimating Spatial Distribution of American Lobster Homarus Americanus Using Habitat Variables

The spatial distribution of the American lobster Homarus americanus is influenced by many factors, which are often difficult to quantify. We implemented a modeling approach for quantifying season-, size-, and sex-specific lobster spatial distribution in the Gulf of Maine with respect to environmental and spatial variables including bottom temperature, bottom salinity, latitude, longitude, depth, distance offshore, and 2 substratum features. Lobster distribution was strongly associated with temperature and depth, and differed seasonally by sex. In offshore waters in the fall, females were dominant at higher latitudes and males at lower latitudes. This segregation was not apparent in the spring although females were still dominant at higher latitudes in offshore waters. Juveniles and adults were also distributed differently; juveniles were more abundant at the lower latitudes in inshore waters, while adults were more widespread along the entire coast. These patterns are consistent with the ecology of the American lobster. This study provides a tool to evaluate changes in lobster spatial distribution with respect to changes in key habitat and other environmental variables, and consequently could be of value for the management of the American lobster.

An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

On the spatial distribution of woody plant species in a tropical montane cloud forest

Abstract The cloud forest is a special type of forest ecosystem that depends on suitable conditions of humidity and temperature to exist; hence, it is a very fragile ecosystem. The cloud forest is also one of the richest ecosystems in terms of species diversity and rate of endemism. However, today, it is one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world. Little is known about tree species distribution and coexistence among cloud forest trees. Trees are essential to understanding ecosystem functioning and maintenance because they support the ecosystem in important ways. For this dissertation, an analysis of woody plant species distribution at a small scale in a north-Peruvian Andean cloud forest was performed, and some of the factors implicated in the observed patterns were identified. Towards that end, different natural factors acting on species distribution within the forest were investigated: (i) intra-specific arrangements, (ii) heterospecific spatial relationships and (iii) relationships with external environmental factors. These analyses were conducted first on standing woody plants and then on seedlings. The woody plants were found to be clumped in the forest, either considering all the species together or each species separately. However, each species presented a specific pattern and specific spatial relationship among different-age individuals. Dispersal mode, growth form and shade tolerance played roles in the final distribution of the species. Furthermore, spatial associations among species, either positive or negative, were observed. These associations were more numerous when considering individuals of the interacting species at different developmental stages, i.e., younger individuals from one species and older individuals from another. Accordingly, competition and facilitation are asymmetric processes and vary throughout the life of an individual. Moreover, some species appear to prefer certain habitat conditions and avoid other habitats. The habitat definition that best explains species distribution is that which includes both environmental and stand characteristics; thus, a combination of these factors is necessary to understanding species' niche preferences. Seedling distribution was also associated with habitat conditions, but these conditions explained less than the 30% of the spatial variation. The position of conspecific adult individuals also affected seedling distribution; although the seedlings of many tree species avoid the vicinity of conspecifics, a few species appeared to prefer the formation of cohorts around their parent trees. The importance of habitat conditions and distance dependence with conspecifics varied among regions within the forest as well as on the developmental stage of the stand. The results from this thesis suggest that different species can coexist within a given space, forming a “puzzle” of species as a result of the intra- and interspecific spatial relationships along with niche preferences and adaptations that operate at different scales. These factors not only affect each species in a different way, but specific preferences also vary throughout species' lifespans. Resumen Resumen El bosque de niebla es uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados del mundo además de ser uno de los más frágiles. Son formaciones azonales que dependen de la existencia de unas condiciones de humedad y temperatura que permitan la formación de nubes que cubran el bosque; lo que dificulta en gran medida su conservación. También es uno de los ecosistemas con mayor riqueza de especies además de tener uno de los mayores porcentajes de endemismos. Uno de los aspectos más importantes para entender el ecosistema, es identificar y entender los elementos que lo componen y los mecanismos que regulan las relaciones entre ellos. Los árboles son el soporte del ecosistema. Sin embargo, apenas hay información sobre la distribución y coexistencia de los árboles en los bosques de niebla. Esta tesis presenta un análisis de la distribución a pequeña escala de las plantas leñosas en un bosque de niebla situado en la cordillera andina del norte de Perú; así como el análisis de algunos de los factores que pueden estar implicados en que se origine la distribución observada. Para este propósito se estudia cómo influyen factores de diferente naturaleza en la distribución de las especies (i) organización intra-específica (ii) relaciones espaciales heterospecíficas y (iii) relación con factores ambientales externos. En estos análisis se estudiaron primero las plantas jóvenes y las adultas, y después las plántulas. Los árboles aparecieron agregados en el bosque, tanto considerando todos a la vez como cuando se estudió cada especie por separado. Sin embargo, cada especie mostró un patrón distinto así como una particular relación espacial entre individuos jóvenes y adultos. El modo de dispersión, la forma de vida y la tolerancia de la especies estuvieron relacionados con el patrón general observado. Se vio también que ciertas especies aparecían relacionadas con otras, tanto de forma positiva (compartiendo zonas) como negativa (apareciendo en áreas distintas). Las asociaciones fueron mucho más numerosas cuando se consideraron los pares de especies en diferente estado de desarrollo, es decir, individuos jóvenes de una especie e individuos mayores de la otra. Eso indicaría que los procesos de competencia y facilitación son asimétricos y además varían durante la vida de la planta. Por otro lado, algunas especies aparecen preferentemente bajo ciertas condiciones de hábitat y evitan otras. La definición de hábitat a la que mejor responden las especies es cuando se incluyen tanto variables ambientales como de masa; así que ambos tipos de variables son necesarias para entender la preferencia de las especies por ciertos nichos. La distribución de las plántulas también estuvo relacionada con condiciones de hábitat, pero eso sólo llegaba a explicar hasta un 30% de la variabilidad espacial. La posición de los adultos de la misma especie también afectó a la distribución de las plántulas. En bastantes especies las plántulas evitan la cercanía de adultos de su misma especie, padres potenciales, aunque algunas especies aisladas mostraron el patrón contrario y aparecieron preferentemente en las mismas áreas que sus padres. La importancia de las condiciones de hábitat y posición de los adultos en la disposición de las plántulas varía de una zona a otra del bosque y además también varía según el estado de desarrollo de la masa.

Spatial variability patterns of some Vertisol properties at a field scale using standardized data

Spatial variability of Vertisol properties is relevant for identifying those zones with physical degradation. In this sense, one has to face the problem of identifying the origin and distribution of spatial variability patterns. The objectives of the present work were (i) to quantify the spatial structure of different physical properties collected from a Vertisol, (ii) to search for potential correlations between different spatial patterns and (iii) to identify relevant components through multivariate spatial analysis. The study was conducted on a Vertisol (Typic Hapludert) dedicated to sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) production during the last sixty years. We used six soil properties collected from a squared grid (225 points) (penetrometer resistance (PR), total porosity, fragmentation dimension (Df), vertical electrical conductivity (ECv), horizontal electrical conductivity (ECh) and soil water content (WC)). All the original data sets were z-transformed before geostatistical analysis. Three different types of semivariogram models were necessary for fitting individual experimental semivariograms. This suggests the different natures of spatial variability patterns. Soil water content rendered the largest nugget effect (C0 = 0.933) while soil total porosity showed the largest range of spatial correlation (A = 43.92 m). The bivariate geostatistical analysis also rendered significant cross-semivariance between different paired soil properties. However, four different semivariogram models were required in that case. This indicates an underlying co-regionalization between different soil properties, which is of interest for delineating management zones within sugarcane fields. Cross-semivariograms showed larger correlation ranges than individual, univariate, semivariograms (A ≥ 29 m). All the findings were supported by multivariate spatial analysis, which showed the influence of soil tillage operations, harvesting machinery and irrigation water distribution on the status of the investigated area.

Measuring the spatial arrangement patterns of pathological lesions in histological sections of brain tissue

The development of abnormal protein aggregates in the form of extracellular plaques and intracellular inclusions is a characteristic feature of many neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and the fronto-temporal dementias (FTD). An important aspect of a pathological protein aggregate is its spatial topography in the tissue. Lesions may not be randomly distributed within a histological section but exhibit spatial pattern, a departure from randomness either towards regularity or clustering. Information on the spatial pattern of a lesion may be useful in elucidating its pathogenesis and in studying the relationships between different lesions. This article reviews the methods that have been used to study the spatial topography of lesions. These include simple tests of whether the distribution of a lesion departs significantly from random using randomized points or sample fields, and more complex methods that employ grids or transects of contiguous fields and which can detect the intensity of aggregation and the sizes, distribution and spacing of the clusters. The usefulness of these methods in elucidating the pathogenesis of protein aggregates in neurodegenerative disease is discussed.

The spatial arrangement patterns of senile plaques in senile dementia of the Alzheimer type (SDAT)

The spatial arrangement patterns of senile plaques have been studied in 10 micron cresyl violet stained sections cut from embedded portions of 20 brain regions from SDAT brains. Two studies are reported: an initial study using the Poisson distribution and a subsequent study using pattern analysis. The initial study indicated that plaques are arranged in discrete clumps in all brain regions when examined at x100 and x400 – suggesting that both small and larger scale clumping may be present. The pattern analysis study was applied to 8 cortical regions. This technique allows a more detailed study of pattern to be made. In all regions the technique revealed that the basic pattern of plaque arrangement is the regularly spaced discrete clump – which may be present on both large and small scales.

Spatial arrangement patterns of senile plaques in post-mortem senile dementia of the Alzheimer type brains

We have studied the spatial distribution of plaques in coronal and tangential sections of the parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), the hippocampus, the frontal lobe and the temporal lobe of five SDAT patients. Sections were stained with cresyl violet and examined at two magnifications (x100 and x400). in all cases (and at both magnifications) statistical analysis using the Poisson distribution showed that the plaques were arranged in clumps (x100: V/M = 1.48 - 4.49; x400 V/M = 1.17 - 1.95). this indicates that both large scale and small scale clumping occurs. Application of the statistical techniques of pattern analysis to coronal sections of frontal and temporal cortex and PHG showed. furthermore, that both large (3200-6400 micron) and small scale (100 - 400 micron) clumps were arranged with a high degree of regularity in the tissue. This suggests that the clumps of plaques reflect underlying neural structure.

Rationalizing spatial exploration patterns of wild animals and humans through a temporal discounting framework

Understanding the exploration patterns of foragers in the wild provides fundamental insight into animal behavior. Recent experimental evidence has demonstrated that path lengths (distances between consecutive turns) taken by foragers are well fitted by a power law distribution. Numerous theoretical contributions have posited that “Lévy random walks”—which can produce power law path length distributions—are optimal for memoryless agents searching a sparse reward landscape. It is unclear, however, whether such a strategy is efficient for cognitively complex agents, from wild animals to humans. Here, we developed a model to explain the emergence of apparent power law path length distributions in animals that can learn about their environments. In our model, the agent’s goal during search is to build an internal model of the distribution of rewards in space that takes into account the cost of time to reach distant locations (i.e., temporally discounting rewards). For an agent with such a goal, we find that an optimal model of exploration in fact produces hyperbolic path lengths, which are well approximated by power laws. We then provide support for our model by showing that humans in a laboratory spatial exploration task search space systematically and modify their search patterns under a cost of time. In addition, we find that path length distributions in a large dataset obtained from free-ranging marine vertebrates are well described by our hyperbolic model. Thus, we provide a general theoretical framework for understanding spatial exploration patterns of cognitively complex foragers.

Rationalizing spatial exploration patterns of wild animals and humans through a temporal discounting framework

Understanding the exploration patterns of foragers in the wild provides fundamental insight into animal behavior. Recent experimental evidence has demonstrated that path lengths (distances between consecutive turns) taken by foragers are well fitted by a power law distribution. Numerous theoretical contributions have posited that “Lévy random walks”—which can produce power law path length distributions—are optimal for memoryless agents searching a sparse reward landscape. It is unclear, however, whether such a strategy is efficient for cognitively complex agents, from wild animals to humans. Here, we developed a model to explain the emergence of apparent power law path length distributions in animals that can learn about their environments. In our model, the agent’s goal during search is to build an internal model of the distribution of rewards in space that takes into account the cost of time to reach distant locations (i.e., temporally discounting rewards). For an agent with such a goal, we find that an optimal model of exploration in fact produces hyperbolic path lengths, which are well approximated by power laws. We then provide support for our model by showing that humans in a laboratory spatial exploration task search space systematically and modify their search patterns under a cost of time. In addition, we find that path length distributions in a large dataset obtained from free-ranging marine vertebrates are well described by our hyperbolic model. Thus, we provide a general theoretical framework for understanding spatial exploration patterns of cognitively complex foragers.

GIS technologies and spatial organization patterns among hunter-gatherers: an archaeological case study from Southern Patagonia (southern South America)

This paper discusses some aspects of hunter-gatherer spatial organization in southern South Patagonia, in later times to 10,000 cal yr BP. Various methods of spatial analysis, elaborated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) were applied to the distributional pattern of archaeological sites with radiocarbon dates. The shift in the distributional pattern of chronological information was assessed in conjunction with other lines of evidence within a biogeographic framework. Accordingly, the varying degrees of occupation and integration of coastal and interior spaces in human spatial organization are explained in association with the adaptive strategies hunter-gatherers have used over time. Both are part of the same human response to changes in risk and uncertainty variability in the region in terms of resource availability and environmental dynamics.

Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns

Biotic interactions can have large effects on species distributions yet their role in shaping species ranges is seldom explored due to historical difficulties in incorporating biotic factors into models without a priori knowledge on interspecific interactions. Improved SDMs, which account for biotic factors and do not require a priori knowledge on species interactions, are needed to fully understand species distributions. Here, we model the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution patterns and explore the robustness of distributions under future climate change. We fit hierarchical spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) for lagomorph species throughout Europe and test the predictive ability of models containing only abiotic factors against models containing abiotic and biotic factors. We account for residual spatial autocorrelation using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Model outputs are used to estimate areas in which abiotic and biotic factors determine species’ ranges. INLA models containing both abiotic and biotic factors had substantially better predictive ability than models containing abiotic factors only, for all but one of the four species. In models containing abiotic and biotic factors, both appeared equally important as determinants of lagomorph ranges, but the influences were spatially heterogeneous. Parts of widespread lagomorph ranges highly influenced by biotic factors will be less robust to future changes in climate, whereas parts of more localised species ranges highly influenced by the environment may be less robust to future climate. SDMs that do not explicitly include biotic factors are potentially misleading and omit a very important source of variation. For the field of species distribution modelling to advance, biotic factors must be taken into account in order to improve the reliability of predicting species distribution patterns both presently and under future climate change.