Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Economic evaluation of prevention of mother – to – child – transmission of HIV/AIDS interventions in developing countries : a systematic review

Les gouvernements mondiaux et les organismes internationaux ont placé une haute priorité dans la prévention de la transmission mère-enfant du VIH. Cependant, bien qu'il y ait eu des progrès énormes rapportés dans des nations industrialisées, la situation dans les pays en voie de développement est encore déplorable; on y constate un grand écart entre l’engagement international pour réduire cette voie de transmission et l'accès aux interventions. Ceci peut être attribué à la situation économique déplorable dans plusieurs pays en voie de développement. Des interventions prioritaires en santé doivent donc être soigneusement sélectionnées afin de maximiser l'utilisation efficace des ressources limitées. L’évaluation économique est un outil efficace qui peut aider des décideurs à identifier quelles stratégies choisir. L'objectif de cette revue systématique est de recenser toutes les études d'évaluation économique existantes qui ont été effectuées dans les pays en voie de développement sur la prévention de la transmission mère-enfant du VIH. Notre revue a retenu 16 articles qui ont répondu aux critères d'inclusion. Nous avons conçu un formulaire pour l’extraction de données, puis nous avons soumis les articles à un contrôle rigoureux de qualité. Nos résultats ont exposé un certain nombre de défauts dans la qualité des études choisies. Nous avons également noté une forte hétérogénéité dans les estimations des paramètres de coût et d'efficacité de base, dans la méthodologie appliquée, ainsi que dans les écarts utilisés dans les analyses de sensibilité. Quelques interventions comportant la thérapie à la zidovudine ou à la nevirapine à court terme se sont avérées rentables, et ont enregistré des valeurs acceptables de coût-utilité. Les résultats des évaluations économiques analysées dans cette revue ont varié sur la base des facteurs suivants : la prévalence du VIH, la classification du pays selon le revenu, les infrastructures disponible, les coûts du personnel, et finalement les coûts des interventions, particulièrement les prix des médicaments.

Análisis fármaco económico de dos tratamientos para pacientes vih positivos con carga viral indetectable

Los tratamientos para aumentar los niveles de cúmulo de diferenciación 4 – CD4 en personas que padecen la enfermedad ocasionada por el Virus de la Inmunodeficiencia Humana (VIH), son importantes tanto para el mejoramiento del bienestar de los pacientes, como para el buen funcionamiento de las instituciones de salud. La presente investigación compara la intervención farmacológica de dos líneas de tratamiento, Lamivudina, Zidovudina, Efavirenz contra Efavirenz, Emtricitabina, Disoproxilo de Tenofovir que se encuentran en la recomendación de esquema de primera línea según la Guía Práctica Clínica (2014). Se evaluó el efecto costo-efectivo de estos dos tratamientos basado en el aumento de los niveles de CD4 a lo largo de tres tiempos diferentes (inicial, 6 y 12 meses) y los costos de los medicamentos de acuerdo a los precios en Colombia según el SISMED en el año 2014. Se realizó un análisis de varianza factorial con medidas repetidas, un árbol de decisiones y un análisis de costo-efectividad incremental (ACEI). Se obtuvo información de 546 pacientes, tanto hombres como mujeres, de la Institución Asistencia Científica de Alta Complejidad S.A.S de la ciudad de Bogotá. Se encontró que el esquema 1 (Lamivudina, Zidovudina, Efavirenz) fue considerado más efectivo y menos costoso que el tratamiento 2 (Efavirenz, Emtricitabina, Disoproxilo de Tenofovir), sin embargo no se evidenció una alta frecuencia de efectos adversos que pueda contribuir a la escogencia de un tratamiento u otro. De acuerdo a estos resultados la institución o los médicos tratantes tienen una alternativa farmacoeconómica para la toma de decisión del tratamiento a utilizar y así iniciar la terapia antirretroviral de pacientes que conviven con VHI con carga viral indetectable.

Análisis fármaco económico de dos tratamientos para pacientes VIH positivos con carga viral indetectable

Los tratamientos para aumentar los niveles de cúmulo de diferenciación 4 – CD4 en personas que padecen la enfermedad ocasionada por el Virus de la Inmunodeficiencia Humana (VIH), son importantes tanto para el mejoramiento del bienestar de los pacientes, como para el buen funcionamiento de las instituciones de salud. La presente investigación compara la intervención farmacológica de dos líneas de tratamiento, Lamivudina, Zidovudina, Efavirenz contra Efavirenz, Emtricitabina, Disoproxilo de Tenofovir que se encuentran en la recomendación de esquema de primera línea según la Guía Práctica Clínica (2014). Se evaluó el efecto costo-efectivo de estos dos tratamientos basado en el aumento de los niveles de CD4 a lo largo de tres tiempos diferentes (inicial, 6 y 12 meses) y los costos de los medicamentos de acuerdo a los precios en Colombia según el SISMED en el año 2014. Se realizó un análisis de varianza factorial con medidas repetidas, un árbol de decisiones y un análisis de costo-efectividad incremental (ACEI). Se obtuvo información de 546 pacientes, tanto hombres como mujeres, de la Institución Asistencia Científica de Alta Complejidad S.A.S de la ciudad de Bogotá. Se encontró que el esquema 1 (Lamivudina, Zidovudina, Efavirenz) fue considerado más efectivo y menos costoso que el tratamiento 2 (Efavirenz, Emtricitabina, Disoproxilo de Tenofovir), sin embargo no se evidenció una alta frecuencia de efectos adversos que pueda contribuir a la escogencia de un tratamiento u otro. De acuerdo a estos resultados la institución o los médicos tratantes tienen una alternativa farmacoeconómica para la toma de decisión del tratamiento a utilizar y así iniciar la terapia antirretroviral de pacientes que conviven con VHI con carga viral indetectable.

Melanoníquia em pacientes HIV positivos utilizando zidovudina

Um dos eventos adversos da zidovudina, um fármaco anti-retroviral, é o desenvolvimento de melanoníquia. Foram avaliados 19 pacientes adultos tratados com zidovudina evidenciando linhas ungueais, um efeito colateral incomum por vezes relatado. As funções hepática, renal, pancreática, bem como a função metabólica destes doentes também foram avaliados. Foram também obtidos marcadores imunológicos e a taxa de adesão ao tratamento.Os nossos resultados sugerem que a melanoníquia, como a macrocitose, podem estar associadas à utilização de terapia anti-retroviral.

Synthesis, molecular structure and physicochemical properties of bis(3 `-azido-3 `-deoxythymidin-5 `-yl) carbonate

3`-Azido-3`-deoxythymidine (zidovudine, AZT), a synthetic analog of natural nucleoside thymidine, has been used extensively in AIDS treatments. We report here the synthesis. X-ray crystal and molecular structure, NMR, IR and Raman spectra and the thermal behavior of a novel carbonate of AZT [(AZT-O)(2)C=O], prepared by the reaction of zidovudine with carbonyldiimidazole. The carbonate compound, C(21)H(24)N(10)O(9), crystallizes in the tetragonal space group P4(1)2(1)2 with a = b = 15.284(1), c = 21.695(1) angstrom, and Z = 8 molecules per unit cell. It consists of two AZT moieties of closely related conformations which are bridged by a carbonyl group to adopt a folded Z-like shape. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LC Evaluation of In Vitro Release of AZT from Microemulsions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in Brazil

Aim. To describe the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in Brazil and analyze the impact of federal government measures addressing the problem since its onset.Method. Retrospective review of AIDS epidemic data from its onset in 1980 up to the last published data in June 2001.Results. AIDS was first reported in Brazil in 1980. By 1988, all 27 Brazilian states had diagnosed cases, and until June 2000 more than half of Brazilian municipalities had recorded at least one case of the disease. The AIDS incidence reached its peak between 1996 and 1997 (14.7 per 100,000 population), and then declined between 1998 and 2000 to 9 per 100,000 population. In the last two decades, the proportion of deaths has been also significantly reduced. These were not random events, but reflected the efficiency of the program implemented by the Brazilian Health Ministry's Coordination on Sexually Transmitted Diseases and AIDS. The program includes an epidemiological surveillance modeling system, which records cases from several regular epidemiological bulletins; national network of diagnosis and monitoring of HIV-infected individuals (ill or not); highly active antiretroviral therapy available free to all patients; mother-infant protection program; educational programs on condom use; the introduction of the female condom; development of AIDS studies in different areas to provide practical solutions; constant preoccupation about drug costs accounting for the patent breaking; and national production of many drugs currently in use.Conclusion. Well-planned and implemented national program against AIDS can significantly reduce the burden of this disease to the population.

Microbiota intestinal de indivíduos que sofreram acidente ocupacional com materiais biológicos e que realizaram profilaxia anti-retroviral

Avaliar a microbiota intestinal de indivíduos que sofreram acidente ocupacional com materiais biológicos e receberam anti-retrovirais foi o objetivo deste estudo. O grupo de estudo constou de 23 indivíduos com idade entre 18-45 anos, sendo 13 doadores de sangue e 10 que sofreram acidente ocupacional. Foram avaliados a microbiota intestinal, antropometria e exames laboratoriais pré, pós e 30 dias após o término da medicação. Zidovudina mais lamivudina foi utilizada em 70% dos indivíduos associado ao nelfinavir, 20% ao efavirenz e 10% ao ritonavir. As alterações nutricionais e dietéticas-laboratoriais e de microbiota intestinal foram analisadas em três momentos. M1: até dois dias do início da profilaxia; M2: no último dia da profilaxia e M3: 30 dias após o término da profilaxia. Náuseas, vômitos e diarréia estiveram presentes em 50% no segundo momento do estudo. Sobrepeso em 70%, desnutrição e eutrofia em 10%, dos indivíduos, não se modificaram durante o estudo. Transaminases, triglicérides, LDL-colesterol se elevaram no segundo momento e normalizaram 30 dias após término da medicação. Houve redução significativa dos Lactobacillus, Bifidobacterium e Bacteróides nos três momentos. Uso de anti-retrovirais provocou impacto significativo na microbiota intestinal dos indivíduos, sem recuperação em 30 dias.

Impacto do tratamento antirretroviral na ocorrência de macrocitose em pacientes com HIV/AIDS do município de Maringá, Estado do Paraná

INTRODUÇÃO: AIDS é uma doença causada pelo HIV que compromete o sistema imune do organismo. O advento da terapia antirretroviral (TARV) altamente eficaz promoveu melhora substancial do prognóstico da doença e da qualidade de vida dos pacientes com HIV/AIDS. Durante seu tratamento prolongado, notam-se algumas alterações hematológicas, dentre elas, anemia e macrocitose, bem como carências de micronutrientes, tais como, de vitamina B12 e ácido fólico. O objetivo do presente trabalho é relacionar a macrocitose e anemia ao uso de TARV, ou à deficiência de vitamina B12 ou de ácido fólico. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 110 pacientes HIV positivos, comparando-se aqueles em uso de TARV com zidovudina (AZT) (grupo 1), TARV sem AZT (grupo 2) ou sem uso de TARV (grupo 3). RESULTADOS: Os pacientes dos três grupos não apresentaram diferenças estatísticas significativas quanto aos níveis de hemoglobina (p = 0,584) e de ácido fólico (p = 0,956). Os pacientes do grupo 1 (G1) apresentaram volume corpuscular médio (VCM) aumentado quando comparado ao grupo 3 (G3) (p < 0,05), bem como do grupo 2 (G2) em relação ao G3 (p < 0,001). As dosagens de vitamina B12 do G1 e G3 foram menores do que as encontradas pelo G2 (p = 0,008). CONCLUSÕES: Conclui-se que os indivíduos em uso de TARV apresentaram macrocitose, embora não pudesse ser relacionada ao tipo de TARV ou a deficiência de vitamina B12. Entretanto, a deficiência de ácido fólico não esteve relacionada ao uso de TARV e nem à macrocitose.

Fatores protetores e de risco envolvidos na transmissão vertical do HIV-1

Este estudo avalia os fatores maternos e fetais envolvidos na transmissão vertical do HIV-1 em 47 pares de mãe e filho. As variáveis comportamentais, demográficas e obstétricas foram obtidas mediante entrevista; os dados referentes ao parto e ao recém-nascido, dos prontuários das maternidades. Durante o terceiro trimestre de gestação foi realizada a contagem da carga viral materna e dos linfócitos T CD4+. A média de idade foi de 25 anos e 23,4% das gestantes eram primigestas, e o fator comportamental mais prevalente foi não usar preservativos. Dentre as gestantes, 48,9% tinham células CD4+ superior a 500 células/mm³ e 93,6% se enquadravam na categoria clínica A; 95,7% submeteram-se à profilaxia com zidovudina durante a gestação ou no parto, a qual foi ministrada a todos os recém-nascidos; 50,0% delas foram submetidas à cesárea eletiva. Apesar de expostas a vários fatores de risco e protetores, nenhuma criança tornou-se infectada. A transmissão vertical resulta de um desequilíbrio entre os fatores, com predomínio dos de risco sobre os protetores.

Reorganizacao do processo condilar da articulacao temporomandibular apos condilectomia unilateral, em camundongos tratados com zidovudina (AZT)

In order to analyze the reorganization of the condylar process after unilateral condylectomy in animals which have received AZT, 30 albino mice, 30 days old were used. The condylectomized animals were divided in two groups, one have received distilled water and the other AZT, orally during 10 days. After 5, 10, 15, 30 and 45 days of the surgery the animals of both groups were sacrificed, their heads removed and fixed in 10% formalin. After decalcification the pieces received histological routine treatment to be included in paraffin. The slices were stained by hematoxylin/eosin method. The analysis of results showed that: 1. the condylar repair is similar on both groups; 2. the results reaffirm those found in the literature, that the articulation after condylectomy is located in an anterior position and that the articular disc is not a determinant factor on condylar reorganization.

Doença arterial coronariana: Um novo paradigma na AIDS

The HIV-infected individuals have been identified as a peculiar group whose propensity to the development of abnormalities in lipids metabolism supports the hypothesis that AIDS itself can be considered as an independent risk factor for the occlusive diseases development. The AIDS progression, as well as the therapy against HIV has been capable to show an array of metabolic disturbances that HIV-infected patients are prone to. These metabolic alterations affect the fate of plasmatic lipids and homocysteine as a result of three factor mainly: (i) the viral infection per se which triggers the development of hypertriglyceridemia and hipocholesterolemia; (ii) multiple vitamins and micronutrients deficiencies, that favors an onset of hyperhomocysteinemia; (iii) the state-of-the-art therapy for HIV infection, which is accompanied to idiosyncratic effects encompassing the lipid metabolism. In this context, a variety of risk factors to atherosclerosis can be identified in the HIV-infected individual. Of note, it must be considered that once life expectancy of these patients has been expanded due to the effective therapy, on the other hand they can accelerate atherosclerotic disease or its pathological appearance in the same extent.

Cytokines profile and clinical-metabolic alterations in HIV-1-infected individuals with and without lypodistrophy

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has lead to a dramatic decrease in the morbidity of patients infected with HIV. However, metabolic side effects, including lipodystrophy and dyslipidemia, have been reported in patients treated with antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The aim of this study was to analyze the clinical and metabolic alterations and the cytokines TNF-α, IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-10 and TNF-II receptors profile in the serum of treated HIV-1-infected individuals with or without lipodystrophy. Eighty-four adult patients were analyzed, 42 females and 42 males, their mean age was 37 years old, and they received HAART for at least 15 months. These patients were ambulatory outpatients from the Infectious and Parasitary Disease Area of Botucatu School of Medicine, UNESP. Subsequently the individuals were distributed into 2 groups, G1: 42 HIV-infected individuals with lipodystrophy, and G2: 42 HIV-infected individuals without lipodystrophy. Among the antiretrovirals used, stavudine was more associated to the lipodystrophy group and zidovudine to the group without lipodystrophy. CD4, CD8, viral load, glucose, albumin, and the circulating lipid did not present any difference in the group comparison, except for triglyceride that was elevated in the lipodystrophy group and HDL which was present in low concentration in more patients of G1. The cytokines TNF-α, TNF-RII, and IL-10 profile presented high levels in the lipodystrophy group; also it was positively correlated with this group. On the other hand, IL-2 and IFN-γ presented low levels in this group. High levels of TNF-α and its receptor seem to be associated to the development of lipodystrophy in patients receiving HAART.

Cytokine profile and clinical metabolic alterations in HIV-1 infected individuals with and without lipodistrophy

The extensive use of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) has transformed HIV infection into a chronic condition. Thus, metabolic alterations including lipodystrophy and dyslipidemia have been associated with the use of such medications. The objective of the present study was to analyze clinical metabolic alterations and the profile of TNF-α, IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-10, and TNF-α type II soluble receptor in serum of HIV-1 individuals with and without lipodystrophy. Eighty-four adults were evaluated, 42 males and 42 females, mean age 37 years, and HAART time of at least 15 months. Two groups were formed, G1: 42 individuals with lipodystrophy, and G2: 42 without lipodistropy. From the HAART used, stavudine was more associated with the lipodystrophy group and zidovudine with the non-lipodystrophy group. CD4 and CD8 values, viral load, glucose, albumin, and lipids were not different between groups, except for triglycerides, which were high in the lipodystrophy group, and HDL, whose concentration was reduced in G1. TNF-α, TNF-RII, and IL-10 profiles were high and had positive correlation; IL-2 and IFN-γ had reduced levels in the lipodystrophy group. High TNF-α and its receptor levels seem to be associated with lipodystrophy development in individuals under HAART therapy.