The effect of potato variety mixtures on epidemics of late blight, in relation to plot size and level of resistance

Potatoes of a number of varieties of contrasting levels of resistance were planted in pure or mixed stands in four experiments over 3 years. Three experiments compared the late blight severity and progress in mixtures with that in pure stands. Disease on susceptible or moderately resistant varieties typical of those in commercial use was similar in mixtures and pure stands. In 2 of 3 years, there were slight reductions on cv. Sante, which is moderately susceptible, in mixture with cv. Cara, which is moderately resistant. Cara was unaffected by this mixture. Mixtures of an immune or near-immune partner with Cara or Sante substantially reduced disease on the latter. The effect of the size of plots of individual varieties or mixtures on blight severity was compared in two experiments. Larger plots had a greater area under the disease progress curve, but the average rate of disease progress was greater in smaller plots; this may be because most disease progress took place later, under more favourable conditions, in the smaller plots. In one experiment, two planting densities were used. Density had no effect on disease and did not interact with mixture effects. The overall conclusion is that, while mixtures of potato varieties may be desirable for other reasons, they do not offer any improvement on the average of the disease resistance of the components.

Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

Building from scratch a marketing services giant by acquisition: case study and interview with Sir Martin Sorrell, Chief Executive of WPP

Purpose – Mergers and acquisitions are among the most intensely used strategic decisions. Yet research by both academics and consulting groups suggests that many mergers and acquisitions fail to add value. On the other hand there are many companies that successfully use mergers and acquisition to grow and add shareholder value. One such company is WPP. The aim of this paper is to explore why WPP has been successful in its acquisition strategy while so many other companies fail. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on documentary evidence and a semi-structured interview with Sir Martin Sorrell – Chief Executive and founder of WPP. Research limitations/implications – The case study offers a unique insight into thinking of a successful acquirer and sheds light on how mergers and acquisitions are managed by WPP. However, because of its design the findings are not generalisable. Originality/value – This case study sheds light on how mergers and acquisitions can be used to create a £9 billion company from a standing start. Furthermore, very few case studies offer insight into the thinking of entrepreneurial Chief Executives who established the business, grew it to become the largest and most profitable marketing services company in the world and engineered close to 300 acquisitions.

Recovery based on plot experiments is a poor predictor of landscape-level population impacts of agricultural pesticides

Current European Union regulatory risk assessment allows application of pesticides provided that recovery of nontarget arthropods in-crop occurs within a year. Despite the long-established theory of source-sink dynamics, risk assessment ignores depletion of surrounding populations and typical field trials are restricted to plot-scale experiments. In the present study, the authors used agent-based modeling of 2 contrasting invertebrates, a spider and a beetle, to assess how the area of pesticide application and environmental half-life affect the assessment of recovery at the plot scale and impact the population at the landscape scale. Small-scale plot experiments were simulated for pesticides with different application rates and environmental half-lives. The same pesticides were then evaluated at the landscape scale (10 km × 10 km) assuming continuous year-on-year usage. The authors' results show that recovery time estimated from plot experiments is a poor indicator of long-term population impact at the landscape level and that the spatial scale of pesticide application strongly determines population-level impact. This raises serious doubts as to the utility of plot-recovery experiments in pesticide regulatory risk assessment for population-level protection. Predictions from the model are supported by empirical evidence from a series of studies carried out in the decade starting in 1988. The issues raised then can now be addressed using simulation. Prediction of impacts at landscape scales should be more widely used in assessing the risks posed by environmental stressors.

Efeitos agudos do tabagismo sobre a modulação autonômica: análise por meio do plot de poincaré

FUNDAMENTO: O tabagismo altera a função autonômica. OBJETIVO: Investigar os efeitos agudos do tabagismo sobre a modulação autonômica e a recuperação dos índices de variabilidade de frequência cardíaca (VFC) pós-fumo, por meio do plot de Poincaré e índices lineares. MÉTODOS: Foram avaliados 25 fumantes jovens, os quais tiveram a frequência cardíaca analisada, batimento a batimento, na posição sentada, após 8 horas de abstinência, por 30 minutos em repouso, 20 minutos durante o fumo e 30 minutos pós-fumo. Análise de variância para medidas repetidas, seguido do teste de Tukey, ou teste de Friedman seguido do teste de Dunn foram aplicados dependendo da normalidade dos dados, com p < 0,05. RESULTADOS: Durante o fumo, houve redução dos índices SD1 (23,4 ± 9,2 vs 13,8 ± 4,8), razão SD1/SD2 (0,31 ± 0,08 vs 0,2 ± 0,04), RMSSD (32,7 ± 13 vs 19,1 ± 6,8), SDNN (47,6 ± 14,8 vs 35,5 ± 8,4), HFnu (32,5 ± 11,6 vs 19 ± 8,1) e do intervalo RR (816,8 ± 89 vs 696,5 ± 76,3) em relação ao repouso, enquanto que aumentos do índice LFnu (67,5 ± 11,6 vs 81 ± 8,1) e da razão LF/HF (2,6 ± 1,7 vs 5,4 ± 3,1) foram observados. A análise visual do plot mostrou menor dispersão dos intervalos RR durante o fumo. Com exceção da razão SD1/SD2, os demais índices apresentaram recuperação dos valores, 30 minutos após o tabagismo. CONCLUSÃO: O tabagismo produziu agudamente modificações no controle autonômico, caracterizadas por ativação simpática e retirada vagal, com recuperação 30 minutos após o fumo.

Species richness of pteridophytes in a montane Atlantic rain forest plot of Southern Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effect of different plot coverings on emergence and early development of seven palm species (arecaceae)

The Arecaceae family comprises plants with economical importance in many Brazilian regions, for agricultural exploration or for landscaping. In great portion, species of this family present low germination velocity and percentage. This work meant to evaluate the germination and early development of seven palm species (Archontophoenix alexandrae H. Wendl. et Drude, Copernicia prunifera (Miller) H.E. Moore, Latania commersonii Gmel., Livistona chinensis R. Br., Syagrus campos-portoana Bondar, Syagrus coronata (Mart.) Beccari, Syagrus picrophylla Barb. Rod.), submitted to three kinds of seed bed plot coverings. Three 10 x 2 m seedbeds were built and filled with a mixture of sand, soil and chicken manure (1:3:0.5 proportion), where two lines were sown with each specie. On top of each seedbed, plastic covering and fifty percent screen were set allowing one third of the seedbed to full sunlight exposure. Seedbeds were irrigated by dripping system. All species had the same germination rate, regardless of the covering, by the end of the experiment (146 days after sowing), eventhough, A. alexandrae under plastic covering conditions, L. commersonii at full sunlight exposure and Syagrus campos-portoana under fifty percent shade, had reached that percentage around 51 days after sowing. The remaining species reached the greatest germination percentage earlier with some of the coverings, rather than at full sunlight exposure. For the studied conditions, covering type had no effect in leaf length and width. For leaf number, there was interaction between species x covering type for Livistona chinensis and Copernicia prunifera.

Poincaré plot indexes of heart rate variability: Relationships with other nonlinear variables

The Poincaré plot for heart rate variability analysis is a technique considered geometrical and non-linear, that can be used to assess the dynamics of heart rate variability by a representation of the values of each pair of R-R intervals into a simplified phase space that describes the system's evolution. The aim of the present study was to verify if there is some correlation between SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2 ratio and heart rate variability nonlinear indexes either in disease or healthy conditions. 114 patients with arterial coronary disease and 65 healthy subjects underwent 30. minute heart rate registration, in supine position and the analyzed indexes were as follows: SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, Sample Entropy, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, Correlation Dimension, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, SDNN, RMSSD, LF, HF and LF/HF ratio. Correlation coefficients between SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2 indexes and the other variables were tested by the Spearman rank correlation test and a regression analysis. We verified high correlation between SD1/SD2 index and HE and DFA (α1) in both groups, suggesting that this ratio can be used as a surrogate variable. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Variabilidade da frequência cardíaca como ferramenta de análise da função autonômica de tabagistas: revisão de literatura e estudo do plot de Poincaré

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Fractal scaling exponents of heart rate variability association with linear indices and Poincaré Plot

The literature indicated that the fractal analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) is related to the chaos theory. However, it is not clear if the both short and long-term fractal scaling exponents of HRV are reliable for short period analysis in women. We evaluated the association of the fractal exponents of HRV with the time and frequency domain and geometric indices of HRV. We evaluated 65 healthy women between 18 and 30 years old. HRV was analyzed with a minimal number of 256 RR intervals in the time (SDNN, RMSSD, NN50 and pNN50) and frequency (LF, HF and LF/HF ratio) domains, the geometric index were also analyzed (triangular indexRRtri, triangular interpolation of RR intervals-TINN and Poincaré plot-SD1, SD2 and SD1/SD2) as well as short and long-term fractal exponents (alpha-1 and alpha-2) of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). No significant correlation was observed for alpha-2 exponent with all indices. There was significant correlation of the alpha-1 exponent with RMSSD, pNN50, SDNN/RMSSD, LF (nu), HF (nu and ms2 ), LF/HF ratio, SD1 and SD1/SD2 ratio. Our data does not indicate the alpha-2 exponent to be used for 256 RR intervals and we support the alpha-1 exponent to be used for HRV analysis in this condition.

Structure, diversity, and spatial patterns in a permanent plot of a high Restinga forest in Southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Spatial methods for plot-based sampling of wildlife populations

Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.