BRS Cometa: nova cultivar de feijoeiro comum com grão do tipo comercial carioca para a região do Distrito Federal.

ABSTRACT: During the years 2003 and 2004, four experiments were conducted in the winter season, under irrigation and in the raining season in the experimental area of the Embrapa Cerrados Research Center at Planaltina, Federal District. The objective was to identify cultivars that presented the following characteristics: resistance to diseases, high yield, resistance to lodging, desirable plant height and good market acceptance, to be indicated for cultivation in the Federal District. It was concluded that the cultivar BRS Cometa is indicated for this region, due to its high yield characteristics, resistance to diseases and lodging, excellent cooking qualities and erect type.

Environmental and biological characteristics of lagoons on the southwest coast of Ireland

Coastal lagoons are defined as shallow coastal water bodies partially separated from the adjacent sea by a restrictive barrier. Coastal lagoons are protected under Annex I of the European Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC). Lagoons are also considered to be “transitional water bodies” and are therefore included in the “register of protected areas” under the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). Consequently, EU member states are required to establish monitoring plans and to regularly report on lagoon condition and conservation status. Irish lagoons are considered relatively rare and unusual because of their North Atlantic, macrotidal location on high energy coastlines and have received little attention. This work aimed to assess the physicochemical and ecological status of three lagoons, Cuskinny, Farranamanagh and Toormore, on the southwest coast of Ireland. Baseline salinity, nutrient and biological conditions were determined in order to provide reference conditions to detect perturbations, and to inform future maintenance of ecosystem health. Accumulation of organic matter is an increasing pressure in coastal lagoon habitats worldwide, often compounding existing eutrophication problems. This research also aimed to investigate the in situ decomposition process in a lagoon habitat together with exploring the associated invertebrate assemblages. Re-classification of the lagoons, under the guidelines of the Venice system for the classifications of marine waters according to salinity, was completed by taking spatial and temporal changes in salinity regimes into consideration. Based on the results of this study, Cuskinny, Farranamanagh and Toormore lagoons are now classified as mesohaline (5 ppt – 18 ppt), oligohaline (0.5 ppt – 5 ppt) and polyhaline (18 ppt – 30 ppt), respectively. Varying vertical, longitudinal and transverse salinity patterns were observed in the three lagoons. Strong correlations between salinity and cumulative rainfall highlighted the important role of precipitation in controlling the lagoon environment. Maximum effect of precipitation on the salinity of the lagoon was observed between four and fourteen days later depending on catchment area geology, indicating the uniqueness of each lagoon system. Seasonal nutrient patterns were evident in the lagoons. Nutrient concentrations were found to be reflective of the catchment area and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow. Assessment based on the Redfield molar ratio indicated a trend towards phosphorus, rather than nitrogen, limitation in Irish lagoons. Investigation of the decomposition process in Cuskinny Lagoon revealed that greatest biomass loss occurred in the winter season. Lowest biomass loss occurred in spring, possibly due to the high density of invertebrates feeding on the thick microbial layer rather than the decomposing litter. It has been reported that the decomposition of plant biomass is highest in the preferential distribution area of the plant species; however, no similar trend was observed in this study with the most active zones of decomposition varying spatially throughout the seasons. Macroinvertebrate analysis revealed low species diversity but high abundance, indicating the dominance of a small number of species. Invertebrate assemblages within the lagoon varied significantly from communities in the adjacent freshwater or marine environments. Although carried out in coastal lagoons on the southwest coast of Ireland, it is envisaged that the overall findings of this study have relevance throughout the entire island of Ireland and possibly to many North Atlantic coastal lagoon ecosystems elsewhere.

How critical is timing for the diagnosis of influenza in general practice?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: The diagnostic significance of clinical symptoms/signs of influenza has mainly been assessed in the context of controlled studies with stringent inclusion criteria. There was a need to extend the evaluation of these predictors not only in the context of general practice but also according to the duration of symptoms and to the dynamics of the epidemic. PRINCIPLES: A prospective study conducted in the Medical Outpatient Clinic in the winter season 1999-2000. Patients with influenza-like syndrome were included, as long as the primary care physician envisaged the diagnosis of influenza. The physician administered a questionnaire, a throat swab was performed and a culture acquired to document the diagnosis of influenza. RESULTS: 201 patients were included in the study. 52% were culture positive for influenza. By univariate analysis, temperature >37.8 degrees C (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.3-7.7), duration of symptoms <48 hours (OR 3.2; 1.8-5.7), cough (OR 3.2; 1-10.4) and myalgia (OR 2.8; 1.0-7.5) were associated with a diagnosis of influenza. In a multivariable logistic analysis, the best model predicting influenza was the association of a duration of symptom <48 hours, medical attendance at the beginning of the epidemic (weeks 49-50), fever >37.8 and cough, with a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 67%, negative predictive value of 73% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.74. CONCLUSIONS: Besides relevant symptoms and signs, the physician should also consider the duration of symptoms and the epidemiological context (start, peak or end of the epidemic) in his appraisal, since both parameters considerably modify the value of the clinical predictors when assessing the probability of a patient having influenza.

Bioactivity Profile of Polyunsaturated Fattyacid extracts from Sardinella longiceps and Sardinella fimbriata – A comparative study

The oceans have proved to be an interminable source of new and effective drugs. Innumerable studies have proved that specific compounds isolated from marine organisms have great nutritional and pharmaceutical value. Polyunsaturated fattyacids (PUFA) in general are known for their dietary benefits in preventing and curing several critical ailments including Coronary heart disease (CHD) and cancers of various kinds. Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA) and Docosahexaenoic Acid (DHA) are two PUFA which are entirely marine in origin – and small Clupeoid fishes like sardines are known to be excellent sources of these two compounds. In this study, we selected two widely available Sardine species in the west coast, Sardinella longiceps and Sardinella fimbriata, for a comparative analysis of their bioactive properties. Both these sardines are known to be rich in EPA and DHA, however considerable seasonal variation in its PUFA content was expected and these variations studied. An extraction procedure to isolate PUFA at high purity levels was identified and the extracts obtained thus were studied for anti-bacterial, anti-diabetic and anti-cancerous properties.Samples of both the sardines were collected from landing centre, measured and their gut content analysed in four different months of the year – viz. June, September, December and March. The fish samples were analyzed for fattyacid using FAME method using gas chromatography to identify the full range of fattyacids and their respective concentration in each of the samples. The fattyacids were expressed in mg/g meat and later converted to percentage values against total fatty acids and total PUFA content. Fattyacids during winter season (Dec-Mar) were found to be generally higher than spawning season (June-Sept). PUFA dominated the profiles of both species and average PUFA content was also higher during winter. However, it was found that S. longiceps had proportionately higher EPA as compared to S. fimbriata which was DHA rich. Percentage of EPA and DHA also varied across months for both species – the spawning season seemed to show higher EPA content in S. longiceps and higher DHA content in S. fimbriata. Gut content analysis indicate that adult S. fimbriata is partial to zooplanktons which are DHA rich while adult S. longiceps feed mainly on EPA rich phytoplankton. Juveniles of both species, found mainly in winter, had a gut content showing more mixed diet. This difference in the feeding pattern reflect clearly in their PUFA profile – adult S. longiceps, which dominate the catch during the spawn season, feeding mostly on phytoplankton is concentrated with EPA while the juveniles which are found mostly in the winter season has slightly less EPA proportion as compared to adults. The same is true for S. fimbriata adults that are caught mostly in the spawning season; being rich in DHA as they feed mainly on zooplankton while the juveniles caught during winter season has a relatively lower concentration of DHA in their total PUFA.Various extraction procedures are known to obtain PUFA from fish oil. However, most of them do not give high purity and do not use materials indicated as safe. PUFA extracts have to be edible and should not have harmful substances for applying on mice and human subjects. Some PUFA extraction procedures, though pure and non-toxic, might induce cis-trans conversions during the extraction process. This conversion destroys the benefits of PUFA and at times is harmful to human body. A method free from these limitations has been standardized for this study. Gas Chromatography was performed on the extracts thus made to ensure that it is substantially pure. EPA: DHA ratios for both samples were derived - for S. longiceps this ratio was 3:2, while it was 3:8 for S. fimbriata.Eight common strains of gram positive and gram negative bacterial strains were subjected to the PUFA extracts from both species dissolved in acetone solution using Agar Well Diffusion method. The activity was studied against an acetone control. At the end of incubation period, zones of inhibition were measured to estimate the activity. Minimum inhibitory concentration for each of the active combinations was calculated by keeping p < 0.01 as significant. Four of the bacteria including multi-resistant Staphylococcus aureus were shown to be inhibited by the fish extracts. It was also found that the extracts from S. fimbriata were better than the one from S. longiceps in annihilating harmful bacteria.Four groups of mice subjects were studied to evaluate the antidiabetic properties of the PUFA extracts. Three groups were induced diabetes by administration of alloxan tetra hydrate. One group without diabetes was kept as control and another with diabetes was kept as diabetic control. For two diabetic groups, a prescribed amount of fish extracts were fed from each of the extracts. The biochemical parameters like serum glucose, total cholesterol, LDL & HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, urea and creatinine were sampled from all four groups at regular intervals of 7 days for a period of 28 days. It was found that groups fed with fish extracts had marked improvement in the levels of total LDL & HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and creatinine. Groups fed with extracts from S. fimbriata seem to have fared better as compared to S. longiceps. However, both groups did not show any marked improvement in blood glucose levels or levels of urea.Cell lines of MCF-7 (Breast Cancer) and DU-145 (Prostate Cancer) were used to analyse the cytotoxicity of the PUFA extracts. Both cell lines were subjected to MTT Assay and later the plates were read using an ELISA reader at a wavelength of 570nm. It was found that both extracts had significant cytotoxic effects against both cell lines and a peak cytotoxicity of 85-90% was apparent. IC50 values were calculated from the graphs and it was found that S. longiceps extracts had a slightly lower IC50 value indicating that it is toxic even at a lower concentration as compared to extracts from S. fimbriata.This study summarizes the bioactivity profile of PUFA extracts and provides recommendation for dietary intake; fish based nutritional industry and indigenous pharmaceutical industry. Possible future directions of this study are also elaborated.

Role of sea-surface wind and transport on enhanced aerosol optical depth observed over the Arabian Sea

The objective of this study is to understand the reasons for the enhancement in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Arabian Sea observed during June, July and August. During these months, high values of AOD are found over the sea beyond 10◦ N and adjacent regions. The Arabian Sea is bounded by the lands of Asia and Africa on its three sides. So the region is influenced by transported aerosols from the surroundings as well as aerosols of local origin (marine aerosols). During the summer monsoon season in India, strong surface winds with velocities around 15 m s−1 are experienced over most parts of the Arabian Sea. These winds are capable of increasing sea spray activity, thereby enhancing the production of marine aerosols. The strong winds increase the contribution of marine aerosols over the region to about 60% of the total aerosol content. The main components of marine aerosols include sea salt and sulphate particles. The remaining part of the aerosol particles comes from the western and northern land masses around the sea, of which the main component is transported dust particles. This transport is observed at higher altitudes starting from 600 m. At low levels, the transport occurs mainly from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea itself, indicating the predominance of marine aerosols at these levels. The major portion of the total aerosol loading was contributed by coarse-mode particles during the period of study. But in the winter season, the concentration of coarse-mode aerosols is found to be less. From the analysis, it is concluded that the increase in marine aerosols and dust particles transported from nearby deserts results in an increase in aerosol content over the Arabian Sea during June, July and August.

A new perspective on Southern hemisphere storm-tracks.

A detailed view of Southern Hemisphere storm tracks is obtained based on the application of filtered variance and modern feature-tracking techniques to a wide range of 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. It has been checked that the conclusions drawn in this study are valid even if data from only the satellite era are used. The emphasis of the paper is on the winter season, but results for the four seasons are also discussed. Both upper- and lower-tropospheric fields are used. The tracking analysis focuses on systems that last longer than 2 days and are mobile (move more than 1000 km). Many of the results support previous ideas about the storm tracks, but some new insights are also obtained. In the summer there is a rather circular, strong, deep high-latitude storm track. In winter the high-latitude storm track is more asymmetric with a spiral from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans in toward Antarctica and a subtropical jet–related lower-latitude storm track over the Pacific, again tending to spiral poleward. At all times of the year, maximum storm activity in the higher-latitude storm track is in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean regions. In the winter upper troposphere, the relative importance of, and interplay between, the subtropical and subpolar storm tracks is discussed. The genesis, lysis, and growth rate of lower-tropospheric winter cyclones together lead to a vivid picture of their behavior that is summarized as a set of overlapping plates, each composed of cyclone life cycles. Systems in each plate appear to feed the genesis in the next plate through downstream development in the upper-troposphere spiral storm track. In the lee of the Andes in South America, there is cyclogenesis associated with the subtropical jet and also, poleward of this, cyclogenesis largely associated with system decay on the upslope and regeneration on the downslope. The genesis and lysis of cyclones and anticyclones have a definite spatial relationship with each other and with the Andes. At 500 hPa, their relative longitudinal positions are consistent with vortex-stretching ideas for simple flow over a large-scale mountain. Cyclonic systems near Antarctica have generally spiraled in from lower latitudes. However, cyclogenesis associated with mobile cyclones occurs around the Antarctic coast with an interesting genesis maximum over the sea ice near 150°E. The South Pacific storm track emerges clearly from the tracking as a coherent deep feature spiraling from Australia to southern South America. A feature of the summer season is the genesis of eastward-moving cyclonic systems near the tropic of Capricorn off Brazil, in the central Pacific and, to a lesser extent, off Madagascar, followed by movement along the southwest flanks of the subtropical anticyclones and contribution to the “convergence zone” cloud bands seen in these regions.

The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century

Changes to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) over the coming century, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) chemistry climate model [Atmospheric Model With Transport and Chemistry (AMTRAC)], are investigated in detail. Two sets of integrations, each a three-member ensemble, are analyzed. The first set is driven with observed climate forcings between 1960 and 2004; the second is driven with climate forcings from a coupled model run, including trace gas concentrations representing a midrange estimate of future anthropogenic emissions between 1990 and 2099. A small positive trend in the frequency of SSWs is found. This trend, amounting to 1 event/decade over a century, is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level and is consistent over the two sets of model integrations. Comparison of the model SSW climatology between the late 20th and 21st centuries shows that the increase is largest toward the end of the winter season. In contrast, the dynamical properties are not significantly altered in the coming century, despite the increase in SSW frequency. Owing to the intrinsic complexity of our model, the direct cause of the predicted trend in SSW frequency remains an open question.

Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere?

Recent analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the stratosphere and troposphere has suggested that predictability of the state of the tropospheric AO may be obtained from the state of the stratospheric AO. However, much of this research has been of a purely qualitative nature. We present a more thorough statistical analysis of a long AO amplitude dataset which seeks to establish the magnitude of such a link. A relationship between the AO in the lower stratosphere and on the 1000 hPa surface on a 10-45 day time-scale is revealed. The relationship accounts for 5% of the variance of the 1000 hPa time series at its peak value and is significant at the 5% level. Over a similar time-scale the 1000 hPa time series accounts for 1% of itself and is not significant at the 5% level. Further investigation of the relationship reveals that it is only present during the winter season and in particular during February and March. It is also demonstrated that using stratospheric AO amplitude data as a predictor in a simple statistical model results in a gain of skill of 5% over a troposphere-only statistical model. This gain in skill is not repeated if an unrelated time series is included as a predictor in the model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream

Much of the atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is associated with variations in the eddy-driven component of the zonal flow. Here we present a simple method to specifically diagnose this component of the flow using the low-level wind field (925–700 hpa ). We focus on the North Atlantic winter season in the ERA-40 reanalysis. Diagnostics of the latitude and speed of the eddy-driven jet stream are compared with conventional diagnostics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. This shows that the NAO and the EA both describe combined changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream. It is therefore necessary, but not always sufficient, to consider both the NAO and the EA in identifying changes in the jet stream. The jet stream analysis suggests that there are three preferred latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in winter. This result is in very good agreement with the application of a statistical mixture model to the two-dimensional state space defined by the NAO and the EA. These results are consistent with several other studies which identify four European/Atlantic regimes, comprising three jet stream patterns plus European blocking events.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The signature of ENSO in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude seasonal mean flow and high-frequency intraseasonal variability

The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed. The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes. The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Sensitivities of a cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology

Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity is assessed by applying an algorithm for the detection and tracking of synoptic scale cyclones to mean sea level pressure data. The method, originally developed for the Southern Hemisphere, is adapted for application in the Northern Hemisphere winter season. NCEP-Reanalysis data from 1958/59 to 1997/98 are used as input. The sensitivities of the results to particular parameters of the algorithm are discussed for both case studies and from a climatological point of view. Results show that the choice of settings is of major relevance especially for the tracking of smaller scale and fast moving systems. With an appropriate setting the algorithm is capable of automatically tracking different types of cyclones at the same time: Both fast moving and developing systems over the large ocean basins and smaller scale cyclones over the Mediterranean basin can be assessed. The climatology of cyclone variables, e.g., cyclone track density, cyclone counts, intensification rates, propagation speeds and areas of cyclogenesis and -lysis gives detailed information on typical cyclone life cycles for different regions. The lowering of the spatial and temporal resolution of the input data from full resolution T62/06h to T42/12h decreases the cyclone track density and cyclone counts. Reducing the temporal resolution alone contributes to a decline in the number of fast moving systems, which is relevant for the cyclone track density. Lowering spatial resolution alone mainly reduces the number of weak cyclones.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root mean square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter-season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead time up to about five days, consistent with under-representation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper-tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.