Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries

Based on analyses of actual data, we reveal that many Asian developing economies own economic structural features of "non-mono-cultural economy" and the "large primary good sector", which have not been discussed in developing economies RBC literature. We also examine the input-output tables to develop a model reflecting actual developing economies' structures. Referring to the analyses, we construct RBC models of ASEAN countries. Based on the model, we find that approximately half of GDP volatility is attributable to domestic productivity shocks, and the remaining half is attributable to price shocks.

Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 7/November 2006

Recent research has highlighted that in the last few years the evolution of regional disparities in many European states has become pro-cyclical. This represents a change with respect to the predominantly anti-cyclical pattern of the 1960s and 1970s. This paper addresses the question of whether and when this change has taken place in the southern periphery of Europe, before analyzing the factors that may have played a role in such a change. The analysis relies on a regional database that includes the evolution of the GDP per capita of NUTS II regions in five European countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) between 1980 and 2000. The results of the analysis support the hypothesis of a change towards a pro-cyclical evolution of regional disparities in the cases of Italy, Portugal, and Spain, but not in those of Greece and France. A relationship between these pro-cyclical patters and the emergence of less dynamic sheltered economies is also detected in peripheral regions. This lack of dynamism is related to the fact that numerous peripheral areas in southern Europe have become increasingly dependent on factors such as transfers or public investment and employment, and therefore are less exposed to changes in market conditions.

One money with several cycles? Evaluation of European business cycles using cluster analysis. ACES Cases No. 2009.3

Optimal currency area theory suggests that business cycle comovement is a sufficient condition for monetary union, particularly if there are low levels of labour mobility between potential members of the monetary union. Previous studies of co-movement of business cycle variables (mainly authored by Artis and Zhang in the late 1990s) found that there was a core of member states in the EU that could be grouped together as having similar business cycle comovements, but these studies always used Germany as the country against which to compare. In this study, the analysis of Artis and Zhang is extended and updated but correlating against both German and euro area macroeconomic aggregates and using more recent techniques in cluster analysis, namely model-based clustering techniques.

Business cycles: a selected list of references.

Mode of access: Internet.

The impact of the WIN 2 program on welfare costs and recipient rates /

Bibliography: leaves 11-12.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

Igazolható-e az üzleti ciklus az iparágak viselkedésével? = Can business cycles be proved with the behavior of enterprises?

A dolgozat alapja egy olyan Leontief-típusú gazdaság, ahol minden egyes ágazatban egy vállalat termel, tehát monopóliumokból áll a gazdaság. A vállalatok termelnek, és a termékeiket a piacon értékesítik. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit a vállalati mérleg összefüggések, valamint a piaci csere után a gazdaságban, a termékek készletváltozása írja le. Az így létrejött mozgásegyenletekből arra következtethetünk, hogy a ciklusok egy ilyen modellben szükségszerűen kialakulnak, tehát az üzleti ciklus a gazdaság működéséhez hozzátartozik. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32. = The aim of the paper is to analyze a Leontief-type economy, i.e. all firms produce only one product and only one technology. The firms sell the products on a monopolistic market. The move of this economy is controlled by the balance sheet expressions and the inventory level fluctuations. The differential equations of the move of this economy show a cyclical movement of the economy along the balanced growth path. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32.

Quantifying the costs of drought : new evidence from life satisfaction data

We estimate the cost of droughts by matching rainfall data with individual life satisfaction. Our context is Australia over the period 2001 to 2004, which included a particularly severe drought. Using fixed-effect models, we find that a drought in spring has a detrimental effect on life satisfaction equivalent to an annual reduction in income of A$18,000. This effect, however, is only found for individuals living in rural areas. Using our estimates, we calculate that the predicted doubling of the frequency of spring droughts will lead to the equivalent loss in life satisfaction of just over 1% of GDP annually.

Fragment-based version management for repositories of business process models

As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to accumulate large collections of process models. These repositories may contain thousands of activities and be managed by different stakeholders with varying skills and responsibilities. However, while being of great value, these repositories induce high management costs. Thus, it becomes essential to keep track of the various model versions as they may mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. We propose an innovative versioning model and associated storage structure, specifically designed to maximize sharing across process model versions, and to automatically handle change propagation. The focal point of this technique is to version single process model fragments, rather than entire process models. Indeed empirical evidence shows that real-life process model repositories have numerous duplicate fragments. Experiments on two industrial datasets confirm the usefulness of our technique.

Fragment-based version management for repositories of business process models

As organizations reach higher levels of Business Process Management maturity, they tend to accumulate large collections of process models. These repositories may contain thousands of activities and be managed by different stakeholders with varying skills and responsibilities. However, while being of great value, these repositories induce high management costs. Thus, it becomes essential to keep track of the various model versions as they may mutually overlap, supersede one another and evolve over time. We propose an innovative versioning model, and associated storage structure, specifically designed to maximize sharing across process models and process model versions, reduce conflicts in concurrent edits and automatically handle controlled change propagation. The focal point of this technique is to version single process model fragments, rather than entire process models. Indeed empirical evidence shows that real-life process model repositories have numerous duplicate fragments. Experiments on two industrial datasets confirm the usefulness of our technique.

Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

The GST Compliance Costs Of Nonprofit Organisations

On 2 December 1998, the Federal Government tabled their policy paper entitled Regulation Impact Statement for the Introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (RIS) in the House of Representatives. The Federal Government predicted that total gross GST compliance costs to Australian businesses in the first year of implementation would be approximately $1,912 million (or $1,195 per firm). Furthermore, it is estimated that the recurrent net compliance costs will be much lower at $131 per firm. Whilst the government made brief references to charitable organisations in their analysis, it stated that the compliance costs faced by nonprofits would, in substance, be no different to the compliance costs faced by businesses or government departments. This paper examines the RIS process in relation to nonprofit organisations in the context of recent taxation legislation affecting nonprofit organisations. It argues that the assumption that nonprofit compliance costs are similar to government and business costs is flawed and makes a case for the RIS process to be reformed to include more appropriate assessments of the impact of legislation on nonprofit enterprises.