Merging Resource Availability with Isotope Mixing Models: The Role of Neutral Interaction Assumptions

Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.

Phylogeny and Taxonomy of the Neotropical Thepytus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae: Theclinae)

The Neotropical lycaenid hairstreak genus Thepytus Robbins and its eight species are revised. Species treatments summarize nomenclature, distribution, habitat, behavior, and diagnostic traits, as well as noting why each species is considered distinct under a biological species concept. An identification key for males and a checklist are included. Beatheclus Balint & Dahners new synonym is synonymized with Thepytus, and Theppus beatrizae (Balint & Dahners) is a new combination. Other nomenclatural actions include the description of Thepytus jennifer Busby & Robbins new species. Thepytus nancyana Busby & Robbins new species, and Thepytus carmen Robbins & Duarte new species. A lectotype is designated or Thecla thyrea Hewitson, 1867, to ensure stability of this name. A phylogenetic analysis based on 22 coded morphological characters yields one equal weight most parsimonious 39-step tree. Implied weighting does not change the tree topology. Unambiguous changes in elevation optimized on the cladogram show that a montane lineage of Thepytus colonized the lowlands in at least one instance. The use of T. echelta (Hewitson) as a biological control agent for Psittacanthus (Loranthaceae) is discussed.

Optimization of modal filters based on arrays of piezoelectric sensors

Modal filters may be obtained by a properly designed weighted sum of the output signals of an array of sensors distributed on the host structure. Although several research groups have been interested in techniques for designing and implementing modal filters based on a given array of sensors, the effect of the array topology on the effectiveness of the modal filter has received much less attention. In particular, it is known that some parameters, such as size, shape and location of a sensor, are very important in determining the observability of a vibration mode. Hence, this paper presents a methodology for the topological optimization of an array of sensors in order to maximize the effectiveness of a set of selected modal filters. This is done using a genetic algorithm optimization technique for the selection of 12 piezoceramic sensors from an array of 36 piezoceramic sensors regularly distributed on an aluminum plate, which maximize the filtering performance, over a given frequency range, of a set of modal filters, each one aiming to isolate one of the first vibration modes. The vectors of the weighting coefficients for each modal filter are evaluated using QR decomposition of the complex frequency response function matrix. Results show that the array topology is not very important for lower frequencies but it greatly affects the filter effectiveness for higher frequencies. Therefore, it is possible to improve the effectiveness and frequency range of a set of modal filters by optimizing the topology of an array of sensors. Indeed, using 12 properly located piezoceramic sensors bonded on an aluminum plate it is shown that the frequency range of a set of modal filters may be enlarged by 25-50%.

Avaliação do desempenho ambiental de obras de recuperação de rodovias

This paper features a tool to carry out environmental performance evaluation in highway rehabilitation works, as a component of environmental supervision activities. The procedure involves (i) evidence gathering by conducting technical inspections and reviewing environmental compliance reports, (ii) ranking nonconformities according to a proposed weighting framework, and (iii) calculation of an environmental conformity index. For the sake of testing and calibration, the procedure was applied to five road segments that were submitted to rehabilitation works in Sao Paulo State and the results were treated qualitatively.

A stable MPC with zone control

Several MPC applications implement a control strategy in which some of the system outputs are controlled within specified ranges or zones, rather than at fixed set points [J.M. Maciejowski, Predictive Control with Constraints, Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 2002]. This means that these outputs will be treated as controlled variables only when the predicted future values lie outside the boundary of their corresponding zones. The zone control is usually implemented by selecting an appropriate weighting matrix for the output error in the control cost function. When an output prediction is inside its zone, the corresponding weight is zeroed, so that the controller ignores this output. When the output prediction lies outside the zone, the error weight is made equal to a specified value and the distance between the output prediction and the boundary of the zone is minimized. The main problem of this approach, as long as stability of the closed loop is concerned, is that each time an output is switched from the status of non-controlled to the status of controlled, or vice versa, a different linear controller is activated. Thus, throughout the continuous operation of the process, the control system keeps switching from one controller to another. Even if a stabilizing control law is developed for each of the control configurations, switching among stable controllers not necessarily produces a stable closed loop system. Here, a stable M PC is developed for the zone control of open-loop stable systems. Focusing on the practical application of the proposed controller, it is assumed that in the control structure of the process system there is an upper optimization layer that defines optimal targets to the system inputs. The performance of the proposed strategy is illustrated by simulation of a subsystem of an industrial FCC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fixed-point DSP implementation of nonlinear H(infinity) controller for large gap electromagnetic suspension system

Electromagnetic suspension systems are inherently nonlinear and often face hardware limitation when digitally controlled. The main contributions of this paper are: the design of a nonlinear H(infinity) controller. including dynamic weighting functions, applied to a large gap electromagnetic suspension system and the presentation of a procedure to implement this controller on a fixed-point DSP, through a methodology able to translate a floating-point algorithm into a fixed-point algorithm by using l(infinity) norm minimization due to conversion error. Experimental results are also presented, in which the performance of the nonlinear controller is evaluated specifically in the initial suspension phase. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized Coupled Algebraic Riccati Equations for Discrete-time Markov Jump with Multiplicative Noise Systems

In this paper we consider the existence of the maximal and mean square stabilizing solutions for a set of generalized coupled algebraic Riccati equations (GCARE for short) associated to the infinite-horizon stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time Markov jump with multiplicative noise linear systems. The weighting matrices of the state and control for the quadratic part are allowed to be indefinite. We present a sufficient condition, based only on some positive semi-definite and kernel restrictions on some matrices, under which there exists the maximal solution and a necessary and sufficient condition under which there exists the mean square stabilizing solution fir the GCARE. We also present a solution for the discounted and long run average cost problems when the performance criterion is assumed be composed by a linear combination of an indefinite quadratic part and a linear part in the state and control variables. The paper is concluded with a numerical example for pension fund with regime switching.

Macroscopic root water uptake distribution using a matric flux potential approach

Hydrological models featuring root water uptake usually do not include compensation mechanisms such that reductions in uptake from dry layers are compensated by an increase in uptake from wetter layers. We developed a physically based root water uptake model with an implicit compensation mechanism. Based on an expression for the matric flux potential (M) as a function of the distance to the root, and assuming a depth-independent value of M at the root surface, uptake per layer is shown to be a function of layer bulk M, root surface M, and a weighting factor that depends on root length density and root radius. Actual transpiration can be calculated from the sum of layer uptake rates. The proposed reduction function (PRF) was built into the SWAP model, and predictions were compared to those made with the Feddes reduction function (FRF). Simulation results were tested against data from Canada (continuous spring wheat [(Triticum aestivum L.]) and Germany (spring wheat, winter barley [Hordeum vulgare L.], sugarbeet [Beta vulgaris L.], winter wheat rotation). For the Canadian data, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for water content in the upper soil layers was very similar for FRF and PRF; for the deeper layers, RMSEP was smaller for PRF. For the German data, RMSEP was lower for PRF in the upper layers and was similar for both models in the deeper layers. In conclusion, but dependent on the properties of the data sets available for testing,the incorporation of the new reduction function into SWAP was successful, providing new capabilities for simulating compensated root water uptake without increasing the number of input parameters or degrading model performance.

Potentiation of dapsone induced methemoglobinemia by N-acetylcysteinc in rats

Dapsone (DDS) (4,4` diaminodiphenylsulfone), the drug of choice for the treatment of leprosy, frequently induces hemolytic anemia and methemoglobinemia. N-hydroxylation, one of the major pathways of biotransformation, has been constantly related to the methemeglobinemia after the use of the drug. In order to prevent the dapsone-induced hemotoxicity, N-acetylcysteine, a drug precursor of glutathione, was administered in combination with DDS to male Wistar rats, weighting 220-240 g. The animals were then anaesthetized and blood was collected from the aorta for determination of plasma DDS concentration by HPLC, determination of methemoglobinemia and glutathione by spectrophotometry, and for biochemical and hematological parameters. Our results showed that N-acetylcysteine enhanced dapsone-induced methemoglobinemia due to increased dapasone plasmatic concentration and consequent increased N-hydroxylamine formation. We concluded that drug interactions with dapsone require individually studies in order to avoid undesirable effects of dapsone.

The burden of mental disorders: a comparison of methods between the Australian burden of disease studies and the Global Burden of Disease study

The national and Victorian burden of disease studies in Australia set out to examine critically the methods used in the Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the burden of mental disorders. The main differences include the use of a different set of disability weights allowing estimates in greater detail by level of severity, adjustments for comorbidity between mental disorders, a greater number of menta I disorders measured, and model ling of substance use disorders, anxiety disorders and bipolar disorder as chronic conditions. Uniform age-weighting in the Australian studies produces considerably lower estimates of the burden due to mental disorders in comparison with age-weighted disability-adjusted life years. A lack of follow-up data on people with mental disorders who are identified in cross-sectional surveys poses the greatest challenge in determining the burden of mental disorders more accurately.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

Phylogeny of the Limnophilinae (Limoniidae) and early evolution of the Tipulomorpha (Diptera)

Tipulomorpha (craneflies) comprise one of the largest subgroups of Diptera, but its phylogeny at different levels has been poorly explored. This study presents the most comprehensive cladistic analysis of the group ever made, with emphasis on the genera and subgenera of the subfamily Limnophilinae (Limoniidae), assumed to include some of the earliest lineages of Tipulomorpha sensu stricto and therefore important for the understanding of the early patterns in the evolution of the craneflies. Eighty-eight characters of the male imago were scored for 104 exemplar species. The most parsimonious trees were searched using implied weighting, in the framework of a sensitivity analysis with different values of k (2 to 6). The dataset based on the characters of adult male morphology showed high levels of homoplasy and yielded very incongruent and unstable phylogenetic results, which are very sensitive to changes in analytical parameters. In the preferred and most parsimonious phylogenetic hypothesis, the Pediciidae is the sister-group of all other Tipulomorpha sensu stricto. The results indicate the paraphyly of the Limoniidae with respect to the Cylindrotomidae and Tipulidae, which are considered sister-groups. The Limoniidae subfamilies Limnophilinae, Limoniinae and Chioneinae are considered non-monophyletic. The study allowed a reconstruction of the possible ground plan condition of selected features of the adult male morphology of craneflies. The genera/subgenera Epiphragma (Epiphragma), Acantholimnophila, Shannonomyia, Limnophila (Arctolimnophila), Eloeophila, Conosia, Polymera, Polymera (Polymerodes), Prionolabis, Eutonia, Phylidorea (Phylidorea), Metalimnophila, Gynoplistia (Cerozodia), Gynoplistia (Dirhipis), Nothophila, Pseudolimnophila (Pseudolimnophila), Pilaria and Ulomorpha are considered monophyletic, but in general are defined by combinations of very homoplastic character states. Two Temperate Gondwanan clades, (Tonnoirella + (Edwardsomyia + (Tinemyia + (Rhamphophila + (Nothophila))))) and ((Notholimnophila + Bergrothomyia) + (Mesolimnophila + (Chilelimnophila + Ctenolimnophila))) are recovered. The genera Limnophila, Neolimnomyia, Gynoplistia (sensu lato) and Hexatoma (sensu lato) are considered non-monophyletic. The systematic position and some morphological characters of `problematic` taxa, such as Dactylolabis, Elephantomyia, Helius and Atarba are discussed on the light of the proposed phylogeny and the analysis of the characters. Character states are richly illustrated. A detailed study of the morphology of the male genitalia is made, and several genera and species have the morphology of the male genitalia illustrated for the first time.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Population pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine

The present study estimated the population pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine in patients receiving oral lamotrigine therapy with drug concentration monitoring, and determined intersubject and intrasubject variability. A total of 129 patients were analyzed from two clinical sites. Of these, 124 patients provided spare data (198 concentration-time points); nine patients (four from a previous group plus five from the current group) provided rich data (431 points). The population analysis was conducted using P-PHARM (TM) (SIMED Scientific Software, Cedex, France), a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling program. A single exponential elimination model (first-order absorption) with heteroscedastic weighting was used. Apparent clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) were the pharmacokinetic parameters estimated. Covariate analysis was performed to determine which factors explained any of the variability associated with lamotrigine clearance. Population estimates of CL/F and V/F for lamotrigine generated in the final model were 2.14 +/- 0.81 L/h and 78.1 +/- 5.1 L/kg. Intersubject and intrasubject variability for clearance was 38% and 38%, respectively. The covariates of concomitant valproate and phenytoin therapy accounted for 42% of the intersubject variability of clearance. Age, gender, clinic site, and other concomitant antiepileptic drugs did not influence clearance. This study of the population pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine in patients using the drug clinically provides useful data and should lead to better dosage individualization for lamotrigine.