996 resultados para Weather control


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The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

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Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM—ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20–25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events.

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Herbicidas aplicados ao solo são submetidos à adsorção, lixiviação e degradação por processos físicos, químicos e biológicos, além da absorção pelas plantas. Todos esses processos são afetados pela classe dos solos onde foram aplicados e das condições climáticas reinantes logo após a aplicação, que afetarão a eficiência dos produtos no controle de plantas daninhas. Investigaram-se as influências dos atributos de solos e condições de cultivo na eficiência do herbicida sulfentrazone no controle da planta daninha tiririca (Cyperus rotundus L.). O Latossolo Vermelho-Amarelo Distrófico (LVAd), o Latossolo Vermelho (LVd - Distrófico; LVdf - Distroférrico; LVef - Eutroférrico) e o Nitossolo Vermelho Eutrófico (NVe) foram coletados sob duas condições de cultivo, visando obter solos com teores diferenciados de argila, óxido de ferro e matéria orgânica. As amostras dos solos foram submetidas à caracterização granulométrica, química e mineralógica e, em seguida, utilizadas no bioensaio de avaliação da eficiência do sulfentrazone (1,6 L p.c. ha-1) no controle da tiririca em condições de pré-emergência. O sulfentrazone apresentou comportamento diferenciado entre as classes de solos estudados e a sua eficiência diminuiu com o aumento do teor de óxido de ferro nos solos, na seguinte ordem: LVAd, LVd, NVe, LVef e LVdf, sendo que as variações nos teores de argila (240 a 640 g kg-1) e da matéria orgânica (12 a 78 g kg-1) dos solos não interferiram na eficiência do sulfentrazone.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Extreme winter warming events in the sub-Arctic have caused considerable vegetation damage due to rapid changes in temperature and loss of snow cover. The frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase due to climate change thereby increasing the potential for recurring vegetation damage in Arctic regions. Here we present data on vegetation recovery from one such natural event and multiple experimental simulations in the sub-Arctic using remote sensing, handheld passive proximal sensors and ground surveys. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recovered fast (2 years), from the 26% decline following one natural extreme winter warming event. Recovery was associated with declines in dead Empetrum nigrum (dominant dwarf shrub) from ground surveys. However, E. nigrum healthy leaf NDVI was also reduced (16%) following this winter warming event in experimental plots (both control and treatments), suggesting that non-obvious plant damage (i.e., physiological stress) had occurred in addition to the dead E. nigrum shoots that was considered responsible for the regional 26% NDVI decline. Plot and leaf level NDVI provided useful additional information that could not be obtained from vegetation surveys and regional remote sensing (MODIS) alone. The major damage of an extreme winter warming event appears to be relatively transitory. However, potential knock-on effects on higher trophic levels (e.g., rodents, reindeer, and bear) could be unpredictable and large. Repeated warming events year after year, which can be expected under winter climate warming, could result in damage that may take much longer to recover.

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Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate exposes the ecosystem to lower temperatures by the loss of insulating snow. Soil animals, which play an integral part in soil processes, may be very susceptible to such events depending on the intensity of soil warming and low temperatures following these events. We simulated week-long extreme winter warming events - using infrared heating lamps, alone or with soil warming cables - for two consecutive years in a sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Minimum temperatures were lower and freeze-thaw cycles were 2-11 times more frequent in treatment plots compared with control plots. Following the second event, Acari populations decreased by 39%; primarily driven by declines of Prostigmata (69%) and the Mesostigmatic nymphs (74%). A community-weighted vertical stratification shift occurred from smaller soil dwelling (eu-edaphic) Collembola species dominance to larger litter dwelling (hemi-edaphic) species dominance in the canopy-with-soil warming plots compared with controls. The most susceptible groups to these winter warming events were the smallest individuals (Prostigmata and eu-edaphic Collembola). This was not apparent from abundance data at the Collembola taxon level, indicating that life forms and species traits play a major role in community assembly following extreme events. The observed shift in soil community can cascade down to the micro-flora affecting plant productivity and mineralization rates. Short-term extreme weather events have the potential to shift community composition through trait composition with potentially large consequences for ecosystem development.

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The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

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Corticosterone, the main stress hormone in birds, mediates resource allocation, allowing animals to adjust their physiology and behaviour to changes in the environment. Incubation is a time and energy-consuming phase of the avian reproductive cycle. It may be terminated prematurely, when the parents' energy stores are depleted or when environmental conditions are severe. In this study, the effects of experimentally elevated baseline corticosterone levels on the parental investment of incubating male Adelie penguins were investigated. Incubation duration and reproductive success of 60 penguins were recorded. The clutches of some birds were replaced by dummy eggs, which recorded egg temperatures and rotation rates, enabling a detailed investigation of incubation behaviour. Corticosterone levels of treated birds were 2.4-fold higher than those of controls 18 days post treatment. Exogenous corticosterone triggered nest desertion in 61% of the treated birds; consequently reducing reproductive success, indicating that corticosterone can reduce or disrupt parental investment. Regarding egg temperatures, hypothermic events became more frequent and more pronounced in treated birds, before these birds eventually abandoned their nest. The treatment also significantly decreased incubation temperatures by 1.3 °C and lengthened the incubation period by 2.1 days. However, the number of chicks at hatching was similar among successful nests, regardless of treatment. Weather conditions appeared to be particularly important in determining the extent to which corticosterone levels affected the behaviour of penguins, as treated penguins were more sensitive to severe weather conditions. This underlines the importance of considering the interactions of organisms with their environment in studies of animal behaviour and ecophysiology.

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Entre los años 2004 y 2007 se hundieron por problemas de estabilidad cinco pesqueros españoles de pequeña eslora, de características parecidas, de relativamente poca edad, que habían sido construidos en un intervalo de pocos años. La mayoría de los tripulantes de esos pesqueros fallecieron o desaparecieron en esos accidentes. Este conjunto de accidentes tuvo bastante repercusión social y mediática. Entre ingenieros navales y marinos del sector de la pesca se relacionó estos accidentes con los condicionantes a los diseños de los pesqueros impuestos por la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero. Los accidentes fueron investigados y publicados sus correspondientes informes; en ellos no se exploró esta supuesta relación. Esta tesis pretende investigar la relación entre esos accidentes y los cambios de la normativa de esfuerzo pesquero. En la introducción se expone la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero analizada, se presentan datos sobre la estructura de la flota pesquera en España y su accidentalidad, y se detallan los criterios de estabilidad manejados durante el trabajo, explicando su relación con la seguridad de los pesqueros. Seguidamente se realiza un análisis estadístico de la siniestralidad en el sector de la pesca para establecer si el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía, o si por el contrario el conjunto de estos accidentes no es relevante desde el punto de vista estadístico. Se analiza la siniestralidad a partir de diversas bases de datos de buques pesqueros en España y se concluye que el conjunto de accidentes estudiados supone una anomalía estadística, ya que la probabilidad de ocurrencia de los cinco sucesos es muy baja considerando la frecuencia estimada de pérdidas de buques por estabilidad en el subsector de la flota pesquera en el que se encuadran los cinco buques perdidos. A continuación el trabajo se centra en la comparación de los buques accidentados con los buques pesqueros dados de baja para construir aquellos, según exige la normativa de control de esfuerzo pesquero; a estos últimos buques nos referiremos como “predecesores” de los buques accidentados. Se comparan las dimensiones principales de cada buque y de su predecesor, resultando que los buques accidentados comparten características de diseño comunes que son sensiblemente diferentes en los buques predecesores, y enlazando dichas características de diseño con los requisitos de la nueva normativa de control del esfuerzo pesquero bajo la que se construyeron estos barcos. Ello permite establecer una relación entre los accidentes y el mencionado cambio normativo. A continuación se compara el margen con que se cumplían los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad entre los buques accidentados y los predecesores, encontrándose que en cuatro de los cinco casos los predecesores cumplían los criterios de estabilidad con mayor holgura que los buques accidentados. Los resultados obtenidos en este punto permiten establecer una relación entre el cambio de normativa de esfuerzo pesquero y la estabilidad de los buques. Los cinco buques accidentados cumplían con los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad en vigor, lo que cuestiona la relación entre esos criterios y la seguridad. Por ello se extiende la comparativa entre pesqueros a dos nuevos campos relacionados con la estabilidad y la seguridad delos buques: • Movimientos a bordo (operatividad del buque), y • Criterios de estabilidad en condiciones meteorológicas adversas El estudio de la operatividad muestra que los buques accidentados tenían, en general, una mayor operatividad que sus predecesores, contrariamente a lo que sucedía con el cumplimiento de los criterios reglamentarios de estabilidad. Por último, se comprueba el desempeño de los diez buques en dos criterios específicos de estabilidad en caso de mal tiempo: el criterio IMO de viento y balance intenso, y un criterio de estabilidad de nueva generación, incluyendo la contribución original del autor de considerar agua en cubierta. Las tendencias observadas en estas dos comparativas son opuestas, lo que permite cuestionar la validez del último criterio sin un control exhaustivo de los parámetros de su formulación, poniendo de manifiesto la necesidad de más investigaciones sobre ese criterio antes de su adopción para uso regulatorio. El conjunto de estos resultados permite obtener una serie de conclusiones en la comparativa entre ambos conjuntos de buques pesqueros. Si bien los resultados de este trabajo no muestran que la aprobación de la nueva normativa de esfuerzo pesquero haya significado una merma general de seguridad en sectores enteros de la flota pesquera, sí se concluye que permitió que algunos diseños de buques pesqueros, posiblemente en busca de la mayor eficiencia compatible con dicha normativa, quedaran con una estabilidad precaria, poniendo de manifiesto que la relación entre seguridad y criterios de estabilidad no es unívoca, y la necesidad de que éstos evolucionen y se adapten a los nuevos diseños de buques pesqueros para continuar garantizando su seguridad. También se concluye que la estabilidad es un aspecto transversal del diseño de los buques, por lo que cualquier reforma normativa que afecte al diseño de los pesqueros o su forma de operar debería estar sujeta a evaluación por parte de las autoridades responsables de la seguridad marítima con carácter previo a su aprobación. ABSTRACT Between 2004 and 2007 five small Spanish fishing vessels sank in stability related accidents. These vessels had similar characteristics, had relatively short age, and had been built in a period of a few years. Most crewmembers of these five vessels died or disappeared in those accidents. This set of accidents had significant social and media impact. Among naval architects and seamen of the fishing sector these accidents were related to the design constraints imposed by the fishing control effort regulations. The accidents were investigated and the official reports issued; this alleged relationship was not explored. This thesis aims to investigate the relationship between those accidents and changes in fishing effort control regulations. In the introduction, the fishing effort control regulation is exposed, data of the Spanish fishing fleet structure and its accident rates are presented, and stability criteria dealt with in this work are explained, detailing its relationship with fishing vessel safety. A statistical analysis of the accident rates in the fishing sector in Spain is performed afterwards. The objective is determining whether the set of accidents studied constitute an anomaly or, on the contrary, they are not statistically relevant. Fishing vessels accident rates is analyzed from several fishing vessel databases in Spain. It is concluded that the set of studied accidents is statistically relevant, as the probability of occurrence of the five happenings is extremely low, considering the loss rates in the subsector of the Spanish fishing fleet where the studied vessels are fitted within. From this point the thesis focuses in comparing the vessels lost and the vessels that were decommissioned to build them as required by the fishing effort control regulation; these vessels will be referred to as “predecessors” of the sunk vessels. The main dimensions between each lost vessel and her predecessor are compared, leading to the conclusion that the lost vessels share design characteristics which are sensibly different from the predecessors, and linking these design characteristics with the requirements imposed by the new fishing control effort regulations. This allows establishing a relationship between the accidents and this regulation change. Then the margin in fulfilling the regulatory stability criteria among the vessels is compared, resulting, in four of the five cases, that predecessors meet the stability criteria with greater clearance than the sunk vessels. The results obtained at this point would establish a relationship between the change of fishing effort control regulation and the stability of vessels. The five lost vessels complied with the stability criteria in force, so the relation between these criteria and safety is put in question. Consequently, the comparison among vessels is extended to other fields related to safety and stability: • Motions onboard (operability), and • Specific stability criteria in rough weather The operability study shows that the lost vessels had in general greater operability than their predecessors, just the opposite as when comparing stability criteria. Finally, performance under specific rough weather stability criteria is checked. The criteria studied are the IMO Weather Criterion, and one of the 2nd generation stability criteria under development by IMO considering in this last case the presence of water on deck, which is an original contribution by the author. The observed trends in these two cases are opposite, allowing to put into question the last criterion validity without an exhaustive control of its formulation parameters; indicating that further research might be necessary before using it for regulatory purposes. The analysis of this set of results leads to some conclusions when comparing both groups of fishing vessels. While the results obtained are not conclusive in the sense that the entry into force of a new fishing effort control in 1998 caused a generalized safety reduction in whole sectors of the Spanish fishing fleet, it can be concluded that it opened the door for some vessel designs resulting with precarious stability. This evidences that the relation between safety and stability criteria is not univocal, so stability criteria needs to evolve for adapting to new fishing vessels designs so their safety is still guaranteed. It is also concluded that stability is a transversal aspect to ship design and operability, implying that any legislative reform affecting ship design or operating modes should be subjected to assessing by the authorities responsible for marine safety before being adopted.

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Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways, Berkeley, Calif.

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The goal of this National Transportation Safety Board study was to better understand the risk factors associated with accidents that occur in weather conditions characterized by IMC or poor visibility ("weather-related accidents"). The study accomplished this goal using the case control methodology, which compared a group of accident flights to a matching group of nonaccident flights to identify patterns of variables that distinguished the two groups from each other. This methodology expands on previous Safety Board efforts that have typically concentrated on summaries of accident cases. For this study, Safety Board air safety investigators (ASI) collected data from 72 GA accidents that occurred between August 2003 and April 2004.

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Cover title: Quality control of wind profiler data. Wind profiler training manual number two.

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The sheer volume of citizen weather data collected and uploaded to online data hubs is immense. However as with any citizen data it is difficult to assess the accuracy of the measurements. Within this project we quantify just how much data is available, where it comes from, the frequency at which it is collected, and the types of automatic weather stations being used. We also list the numerous possible sources of error and uncertainty within citizen weather observations before showing evidence of such effects in real data. A thorough intercomparison field study was conducted, testing popular models of citizen weather stations. From this study we were able to parameterise key sources of bias. Most significantly the project develops a complete quality control system through which citizen air temperature observations can be passed. The structure of this system was heavily informed by the results of the field study. Using a Bayesian framework the system learns and updates its estimates of the calibration and radiation-induced biases inherent to each station. We then show the benefit of correcting for these learnt biases over using the original uncorrected data. The system also attaches an uncertainty estimate to each observation, which would provide real world applications that choose to incorporate such observations with a measure on which they may base their confidence in the data. The system relies on interpolated temperature and radiation observations from neighbouring professional weather stations for which a Bayesian regression model is used. We recognise some of the assumptions and flaws of the developed system and suggest further work that needs to be done to bring it to an operational setting. Such a system will hopefully allow applications to leverage the additional value citizen weather data brings to longstanding professional observing networks.

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Fiji exports approximately 800 t year-1 of 'Solo Sunrise' papaya marketed as 'Fiji Red' to international markets which include New Zealand, Australia and Japan. The wet weather conditions from November to April each year result in a significant increase in fungal diseases present in Fiji papaya orchards. The two major pathogens that are causing significant post-harvest losses are: stem end rot (Phytophthora palmivora) and anthracnose (Colletotrichum spp.). The high incidence of post-harvest rots has led to increased rejection rates all along the supply chain, causing a reduction in income to farmers, exporters, importers and retailers of Fiji papaya. It has also undermined the superior quality reputation on the market. In response to this issue, the Fiji Papaya industry led by Nature's Way Cooperative, embarked on series of trials supported by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) to determine the most effective and economical post-harvest control in Fiji papaya. Of all the treatments that were examined, a hot water dip treatment was selected by the industry as the most appropriate technology given the level of control that it provide, the cost effectiveness of the treatment and the fact that it was non-chemical. A commercial hot water unit that fits with the existing quarantine treatment and packing facilities has been designed and a cost benefit analysis for the investment carried out. This paper explores the research findings as well as the industry process that has led to the commercial uptake of this important technology.