Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction

Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections

Late Quaternary hydrological dynamics in the Middle Kalahari: forcing and feedbacks

The Kalahari region has become a major source of Quaternary palaeoenvironmental data derived primarily from the analysis of geomorphological proxies of environmental change. One suite of data, from palaeolacustrine landforms, has recently provided a new record of major hydrological changes in the last 150 ka [Burrough, S. L., Thomas, D. S. G., Bailey, R. M., 2009. Mega-Lake in the Kalahari: A Late Pleistocene record of the Palaeolake Makgadikgadi system. Quaternary Science Reviews, in press.]. Here we present an improved analysis of the drivers and feedbacks of lake level change, utilising information from three main sources: data from the lake system itself, from analyses of other late Quaternary records within the region and from climate modelling. Simulations using the Hadley Centre coupled climate model, HadCM3, suggest that once triggered, the lake body was large enough to potentially affect both local and regional climates. Surface waters and their interactions with the climate are therefore an important component of environmental dynamics during the late Quaternary. Through its capacity to couple Middle Kalahari environments to distant forcing mechanisms and to itself force environmental change, we demonstrate that the existence or absence of megalake Makgadikgadi adds a new level of complexity to the interpretations of environmental proxy records in southern Africa's summer rainfall zone.

Recent climatic trends and linkages to river discharge in Central Vietnam

In this study, change in rainfall, temperature and river discharge are analysed over the last three decades in Central Vietnam. Trends and rainfall indices are evaluated using non-parametric tests at different temporal levels. To overcome the sparse locally available network, the high resolution APHRODITE gridded dataset is used in addition to the existing rain gauges. Finally, existing linkages between discharge changes and trends in rainfall and temperature are explored. Results are indicative of an intensification of rainfall (+15%/decade), with more extreme and longer events. A significant increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in consecutive dry days provides strong evidence for a lengthening wet season in Central Vietnam. In addition, trends based on APHRODITE suggest a strong orographic signal in winter and annual trends. These results underline the local variability in the impacts of climatic change at the global scale. Consequently, it is important that change detection investigations are conducted at the local scale. A very weak signal is detected in the trend of minimum temperature (+0.2°C/decade). River discharge trends show an increase in mean discharge (31 to 35%/decade) over the last decades. Between 54 and 74% of this increase is explained by the increase in precipitation. The maximum discharge also responds significantly to precipitation changes leading to a lengthened wet season and an increase in extreme rainfall events. Such trends can be linked with a likely increase in floods in Central Vietnam, which is important for future adaptation planning and management and flood preparedness in the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate change and water in the UK: past changes and future prospects

Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make

Fluxes of CO(2) above a plantation of Eucalyptus in southeast Brazil

Eddy-covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CO(2) (NEE) and estimates of gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (R(E)) were obtained in a 2-4 year old Eucalyptus plantation during two years with very different winter rainfall In the first (drier) year the annual NEE GEP and RE were lower than the sums in the second (normal) year and conversely the total respiratory costs of assimilated carbon were higher in the dry year than in the normal year Although the net primary production (NPP) in the first year was 23% lower than that of the second year the decrease in the carbon use efficiency (CUE = NPP/GEP) was 11% and autotrophic respiration utilized more resources in the first dry year than in the second normal year The time variations in NEE were followed by NPP because in these young Eucalyptus plantations NEE is very largely dominated by NPP and heterotrophic respiration plays only a relatively minor role During the dry season a pronounced hysteresis was observed in the relationship between NEE and photosynthetically active radiation and NEE fluxes were inversely proportional to humidity saturation deficit values greater than 0 8 kPa Nighttime fluxes of CO(2) during calm conditions when the friction velocity (u) was below the threshold (0 25 ms(-1)) were estimated based on a Q(10) temperature-dependence relationship adjusted separately for different classes of soil moisture content which regulated the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Reforestation with native mixed-species plantings in a temperate continental climate effectively sequesters and stabilizes carbon within decades.

Reforestation has large potential for mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. Native mixed-species plantings have a higher potential to reverse biodiversity loss than do plantations of production species, but there are few data on their capacity to store carbon. A chronosequence (5-45 years) of 36 native mixed-species plantings, paired with adjacent pastures, was measured to investigate changes to stocks among C pools following reforestation of agricultural land in the medium rainfall zone (400-800 mm yr(-1) ) of temperate Australia. These mixed-species plantings accumulated 3.09 ± 0.85 t C ha(-1)  yr(-1) in aboveground biomass and 0.18 ± 0.05 t C ha(-1)  yr(-1) in plant litter, reaching amounts comparable to those measured in remnant woodlands by 20 years and 36 years after reforestation respectively. Soil C was slower to increase, with increases seen only after 45 years, at which time stocks had not reached the amounts found in remnant woodlands. The amount of trees (tree density and basal area) was positively associated with the accumulation of carbon in aboveground biomass and litter. In contrast, changes to soil C were most strongly related to the productivity of the location (a forest productivity index and soil N content in the adjacent pasture). At 30 years, native mixed-species plantings had increased the stability of soil C stocks, with higher amounts of recalcitrant C and higher C : N ratios than their adjacent pastures. Reforestation with native mixed-species plantings did not significantly change the availability of macronutrients (N, K, Ca, Mg, P, and S) or micronutrients (Fe, B, Mn, Zn, and Cu), content of plant toxins (Al, Si), acidity, or salinity (Na, electrical conductivity) in the soil. In this medium rainfall area, native mixed-species plantings provided comparable rates of C sequestration to local production species, with the probable additional benefit of providing better quality habitat for native biota. These results demonstrate that reforestation using native mixed-species plantings is an effective alternative for carbon sequestration to standard monocultures of production species in medium rainfall areas of temperate continental climates, where they can effectively store C, convert C into stable pools and provide greater benefits for biodiversity.

Mediterranean-type climate in the South Aegean (Eastern Mediterranean) during the Late Miocene: Evidence from isotope and element proxies

The present-day climate in the Mediterranean region is characterized by mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers. There is contradictory evidence as to whether the present-day conditions (“Mediterranean climate”) already existed in the Late Miocene. This thesis presents seasonally-resolved isotope and element proxy data obtained from Late Miocene reef corals from Crete (Southern Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean) in order to illustrate climate conditions in the Mediterranean region during this time. There was a transition from greenhouse to icehouse conditions without a Greenland ice sheet during the Late Miocene. Since the Greenland ice sheet is predicted to melt fully within the next millennia, Late Miocene climate mechanisms can be considered as useful analogues in evaluating models of Northern Hemispheric climate conditions in the future. So far, high resolution chemical proxy data on Late Miocene environments are limited. In order to enlarge the proxy database for this time span, coral genus Tarbellastraea was evaluated as a new proxy archive, and proved reliable based on consistent oxygen isotope records of Tarbellastraea and the established paleoenvironmental archive of coral genus Porites. In combination with lithostratigraphic data, global 87Sr/86Sr seawater chronostratigraphy was used to constrain the numerical age of the coral sites, assuming the Mediterranean Sea to be equilibrated with global open ocean water. 87Sr/86Sr ratios of Tarbellastraea and Porites from eight stratigraphically different sampling sites were measured by thermal ionization mass spectrometry. The ratios range from 0.708900 to 0.708958 corresponding to ages of 10 to 7 Ma (Tortonian to Early Messinian). Spectral analyses of multi-decadal time-series yield interannual δ18O variability with periods of ~2 and ~5 years, similar to that of modern records, indicating that pressure field systems comparable to those controlling the seasonality of present-day Mediterranean climate existed, at least intermittently, already during the Late Miocene. In addition to sea surface temperature (SST), δ18O composition of coral aragonite is controlled by other parameters such as local seawater composition which as a result of precipitation and evaporation, influences sea surface salinity (SSS). The Sr/Ca ratio is considered to be independent of salinity, and was used, therefore, as an additional proxy to estimate seasonality in SST. Major and trace element concentrations in coral aragonite determined by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry yield significant variations along a transect perpendicular to coral growth increments, and record varying environmental conditions. The comparison between the average SST seasonality of 7°C and 9°C, derived from average annual δ18O (1.1‰) and Sr/Ca (0.579 mmol/mol) amplitudes, respectively, indicates that the δ18O-derived SST seasonality is biased by seawater composition, reducing the δ18O amplitude by 0.3‰. This value is equivalent to a seasonal SSS variation of 1‰, as observed under present-day Aegean Sea conditions. Concentration patterns of non-lattice bound major and trace elements, related to trapped particles within the coral skeleton, reflect seasonal input of suspended load into the reef environment. δ18O, Sr/Ca and non-lattice bound element proxy records, as well as geochemical compositions of the trapped particles, provide evidence for intense precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean during winters. Winter rain caused freshwater discharge and transport of weathering products from the hinterland into the reef environment. There is a trend in coral δ18O data to more positive mean δ18O values (–2.7‰ to –1.7‰) coupled with decreased seasonal δ18O amplitudes (1.1‰ to 0.7‰) from 10 to 7 Ma. This relationship is most easily explained in terms of more positive summer δ18O. Since coral diversity and annual growth rates indicate more or less constant average SST for the Mediterranean from the Tortonian to the Early Messinian, more positive mean and summer δ18O indicate increasing aridity during the Late Miocene, and more pronounced during summers. The analytical results implicate that winter rainfall and summer drought, the main characteristics of the present-day Mediterranean climate, were already present in the Mediterranean region during the Late Miocene. Some models have argued that the Mediterranean climate did not exist in this region prior to the Pliocene. However, the data presented here show that conditions comparable to those of the present-day existed either intermittently or permanently since at least about 10 Ma.

Evolution und historische Biogeographie von Senecio L. mit Fokus auf die Alte Welt

Senecio L., eine der größten Angiospermengattungen, entstand im mittleren Miozän in trockenen oder Winterregengebieten des südlichen Afrikas. Von dort ausgehend wurden die anderen Kontinente mehrmals unabhängig voneinander besiedelt. Die hohe Artenanzahl, das junge Alter und die was weltweite Verbreitung der Gattung stellt eine Besonderheit dar. Die meisten anderen jungen und schnellen Radiationen sind nicht so weit verbreitet. Es scheint, als wäre die hohe Artenanzahl und die weite Verbreitung das Ergebnis von einer guten Ausbreitungsfähigkeit, einem hohe Samenansatz sowie einer Präferenz für offene und gestörte Standorte.rnDie Paläarktis wurde zweimal unabhängig voneinander kolonisiert, beide Linien kommen in etwa in der gleichen Region vor, unterscheiden sich aber in ihrer Habitatpräferenz und Lebensdauer. Die eine Linie kommt zumeist entlang des Mittelmeeres vor und stammt am wahrscheinlichsten von annuellen Tieflandarten aus den trockenen oder Winterregengebieten des südlichen Afrikas ab. Die andere Linie stammt wahrscheinlich von Drakensbergarten ab und besiedelt auch bevorzugt bergige Regionen in der Paläarktis. Senecio ist außerdem die artenreichste Gattung in den tropisch afroalpinen Regionen Ostafrikas. Die Arten sind während des Pliozäns oder Pleistozäns entstanden und das Ergebnis von mehrfacher Einwanderung aus anderen temperaten Regionen, in situ Artbildung spielte nur eine untergeordnete Bedeutung. rn

Seasonal variation and sources of low molecular weight organic acids in precipitation in the rural area of Anshun

Low mol. wt. (LMW) org. acids are important and ubiquitous chem. constituents in the atm. A comprehensive study of the chem. compn. of pptn. was carried out from June 2007 to June 2008 at a rural site in Anshun, in the west of Guizhou Province, China. During this period, 118 rainwater samples were collected and the main LMW carboxylic acids were detd. using ion chromatog. The av. pH of rainwater was 4.89 which is a typical acidic value. The most abundant carboxylic acids were formic acid (vol. wt. mean concn.: 8.77 μmol L-1) and acetic acid (6.90 μmol L-1), followed by oxalic acid (2.05 μmol L-1). The seasonal variation of concns. and wet deposition fluxes of org. acids indicated that direct vegetation emissions were the main sources of the org. acids. Highest concns. were obsd. in winter and were ascribed to the low winter rainfall and the contribution of other air pollution sources northeast of the study area. The ratio of formic and acetic acids in the pptn. ([F/A]T) was proposed as an indicator of pollution source. This suggested that the pollution resulted from direct emissions from natural or anthropogenic sources. Comparison with acid pptn. in other urban and rural areas in Guizhou showed that there was a decreasing contribution of LMW org. acids to free acidity and all anions in rainwater from urban to remote rural areas. Consequently, it is necessary to control emissions of org. acids to reduce the frequency of acid rain, esp. in rural and remote areas. [on SciFinder(R)]

Proxy data and model simulations of sediment core GeoB7920-2

The evolution of the northwest African hydrological balance throughout the Pleistocene epoch influenced the migration of prehistoric humans**1. The hydrological balance is also thought to be important to global teleconnection mechanisms during Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events**2. However, most high-resolution African climate records do not span the millennial-scale climate changes of the last glacial-interglacial cycle**1, 3, 4, 5, or lack an accurate chronology**6. Here, we use grain-size analyses of siliciclastic marine sediments from off the coast of Mauritania to reconstruct changes in northwest African humidity over the past 120,000 years. We compare this reconstruction to simulations of palaeo-humidity from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model. These records are in good agreement, and indicate the reoccurrence of precession-forced humid periods during the last interglacial period similar to the Holocene African Humid Period. We suggest that millennial-scale arid events are associated with a reduction of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and that millennial-scale humid events are linked to a regional increase of winter rainfall over the coastal regions of northwest Africa.

n-Alkane content and compound-specific d13C values of soil samples, river samples, and marine surface samples

Southwestern Africa's coastal marine mudbelt, a prominent Holocene sediment package, provides a valuable archive for reconstructing terrestrial palaeoclimates on the adjacent continent. While the origin of terrestrial inorganic material has been intensively studied, the sources of terrigenous organic material deposited in the mudbelt are yet unclear. In this study, plant wax derived n-alkanes and their compound-specific d13C in soils, flood deposits and suspension loads from regional fluvial systems and marine sediments are analysed to characterize the origin of terrestrial organic material in the southwest African mudbelt. Soils from different biomes in the catchments of the Orange River and small west coast rivers show on average distinct n-alkane distributions and compound-specific d13C values reflecting biome-specific vegetation types, most notably the winter rainfall associated Fynbos Biome of the southwestern Cape. In the fluvial sediment samples from the Orange River, changes in the n-alkane distributions and compound-specific d13C compositions reveal an overprint by local vegetation along the river's course. The smaller west coast rivers show distinct signals, reflecting their small catchment areas and particular vegetation communities. Marine surface sediments spanning a transect from the northern mudbelt (29°S) to St. Helena Bay (33°S) reveal subtle, but spatially coherent, changes in n-alkane distributions and compound-specific d13C, indicating the influence of Orange River sediments in the northern mudbelt, the increasing importance of terrigenous input from the adjacent western coastal biomes in the central mudbelt, and contributions from the Fynbos Biome to the southern mudbelt. These findings indicate the different sources of terrestrial organic material deposited in the mudbelt, and highlight the potential the mudbelt has to preserve evidence of environmental change from the adjacent continent.

Validation of age determination using otoliths of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus L.) in the Bay of Biscay

Validation of the age determination procedure using otoliths of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay was achieved by monitoring very strong year-classes in successive spring catches and surveys, as well as the seasonal occurrence of edge types. Historical corroboration of the ageing method was obtained by cross-correlation between successive age groups by year-classes in catches and surveys (1987–2013). Summary annual growth in length is also presented. Yearly annuli consist of a hyaline zone (either single or composite) and a wide opaque zone, disrupted occasionally by some typical checks (mainly at age-0 and age-1 at peak spawning time). Age determination, given a date of capture, requires knowledge of the typical annual growth pattern of otoliths, their seasonal edge formation by ages and the most typical checks. Most opaque growth occurs in summer and is minimal (translucent) in winter. Opaque zone formation begins earlier in younger fish (in spring), and this helps distinguish age-1 from age-2+.

Some effects of Earth's surface on winter jet stream positions in the Northern Hemisphere and rainfall patterns in northern and central California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): This report shows that the mean wintertime polar-front jet stream structure consists of three long waves. Prominent ridges in the jet stream flow occur near the longitudes of India, eastern Pacific/west coast of North America, and eastern Atlantic/British Isles; prominent troughs occur near the longitudes of the Middle East, western Pacific, and western Atlantic/east coast of North America. ... One of the climatological ridges occurs along the west coast of North America ... just off the central Oregon coast. The position of the jet stream at this location appears to be the main reason most Pacific storms pass to the north of California. Sustained rainfall in northern and central California occurs only when the storm track is displaced southward of this climatological position.

Role of rainfall in the breeding of Labeo rohita (Ham.), Cirrhinus mrigala (Ham.), Catla catla (Ham.), at Damdama (Haryana), a semi-arid zone

The role of several environmental factors on the breeding and hatching of fish has been studied by many earlier investigators. Perfection in the hypophysation technique has helped to some extent in by-passing the environmental variables such as temperature, light and rain. With the use of a modern fish hatchery, it is possible to attain maximum success in breeding and hatching, even without rains; reference is given to studies carried out regarding the role of rainfall in the breeding of Labeo rohita, Cirrhinus mrigala, Catla catla.

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.