The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting

We explore the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. We document that a country's equity market valuehas significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity priceindex for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to usingseveral control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, our results indicatethat exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets,especially at very short horizons.

The Persistence of Finnish Equity Fund Performance

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, esiintyykö suomeen sijoittavilla osakerahastoilla menestyksen pysyvyyttä. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kaikista suomalaisista osakerahastoista, jotka toimivat ajanjaksolla 15.1.1998-13.1.2005. Aineisto on vapaa selviytymisvinoumasta. Suorituskyvyn mittareina käytetään CAPM-alfaa sekä kolmi- ja nelifaktori-alfaa. Empiirisessä osassa osakerahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyttä testataan Spearmanin järjestyskorrelaatiotestillä. Evidenssi menestyksen pysyvyydestä jäi vähäiseksi, vaikkakin sitä esiintyi satunnaisesti kaikilla menestysmittareilla joillakin ranking- ja sijoitusperiodin yhdistelmillä. CAPM-alfalla tarkasteltuna tilastollisesti merkitsevää menestyksen pysyvyyttä esiintyi selvästi useammin kuin muilla menestysmittareilla. Tulokset tukevat viimeaikaisia kansainvälisiä tutkimuksia, joiden mukaan menestyksen pysyvyys riippuu usein mittaustavasta. Menestysmittareina käytettyjen regressiomallien merkitsevyystestit osoittavat multifaktorimallien selittävän osakerahastojen tuottoja CAPM:a paremmin. Lisätyt muuttujat parantavat merkittävästi CAPM:n selitysvoimaa.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Style analysis in real estate markets: beyond the sectors and regions dichotomy

While style analysis has been studied extensively in equity markets, applications of this valuable tool for measuring and benchmarking performance and risk in a real estate context are still relatively new. Most previous real estate studies on this topic have identified three investment categories (rather than styles): sectors, administrative regions and economic regions. However, the low explanatory power reveals the need to extend this analysis to other investment styles. We identify four main real estate investment styles and apply a multivariate model to randomly generated portfolios to test the significance of each style in explaining portfolio returns. Results show that significant alpha performance is significantly reduced when we account for the new investment styles, with small vs. big properties being the dominant one. Secondly, we find that the probability of obtaining alpha performance is dependent upon the actual exposure of funds to style factors. Finally we obtain that both alpha and systematic risk levels are linked to the actual characteristics of portfolios. Our overall results suggest that it would be beneficial for real estate fund managers to use these style factors to set benchmarks and to analyze portfolio returns.

Corporate governance and its influence on the investment decision process of equity market's professionals: An inside view of how corporate governance issues influence the decision-making process of sell-side and buy-side professionals when analyzing Brazilian listed companies

Corporate governance has been in the spotlight for the past two decades, being subject of numerous researches all over the world. Governance is pictured as a broad and diverse theme, evolving through different routes to form distinct systems. This scenario together with 2 types of agency problems (investor vs. management and minorities vs. controlling shareholders) produce different definitions for governance. Usually, studies investigate whether corporate governance structures influence firm performance, and company valuation. This approach implies investors can identify those impacts and later take them into consideration when making investment decisions. However, behavioral finance theory shows that not always investors take rational decisions, and therefore the modus operandi of those professionals needs to be understood. So, this research aimed to investigate to what extent Brazilian corporate governance standards and practices influence the investment decision-making process of equity markets' professionals from the sell-side and buy-side. This exploratory study was carried out through qualitative and quantitative approaches. In the qualitative phase, 8 practitioners were interviewed and 3 dimensions emerged: understanding, pertinence and practice. Based on the interviews’ findings, a questionnaire was formulated and distributed to buy-siders and sell-siders that cover Brazilian stocks. 117 respondents from all over the world contributed to the study. The data obtained were analyzed through structural equation modeling and descriptive statistics. The 3 dimensions became 5 constructs: definition (institutionalized governance, informal governance), pertinence (relevance), practice (valuation process, structured governance assessment) The results of this thesis suggest there is no definitive answer, as the extent to which governance will influence an investment decision process will depend on a number of circumstances which compose the context. The only certainty is the need to present a “corporate governance behavior”, rather than simply establishing rules and regulations at firm and country level.

The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the emerging markets

A presente dissertação investiga a relação empírica entre a crise financeira de 2007-2009, a crise da dívida soberana de 2010-2012 e a recente desaceleração dos mercados de capitais nos mercados emergentes. A exposição dos mercados emergentes à crise nos desenvolvidos é quantificada através de um modelo de interdependência de factores. Os resultados mostram que estes sofreram, de facto, um choque provocado por ambas as crises. No entanto, este foi um choque de curta duração enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos ainda lutavam com as consequências resultantes das sucessivas crises financeiras. A análise do modelo mostra ainda que após a crise da divida soberana, enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos iniciam a sua recuperação, os emergentes desaceleram o seu crescimento. De forma a completar a análise do modelo foi efectuado um estudo sobre a influência dos fluxos de capitais entre os mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos na direcção do seu crescimento, revelando que existe uma relação entre estes dois eventos.

Frontiers of finance: Evolution and efficient markets

In this review article, we explore several recent advances in the quantitative modeling of financial markets. We begin with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis and describe how this controversial idea has stimulated a number of new directions of research, some focusing on more elaborate mathematical models that are capable of rationalizing the empirical facts, others taking a completely different tack in rejecting rationality altogether. One of the most promising directions is to view financial markets from a biological perspective and, specifically, within an evolutionary framework in which markets, instruments, institutions, and investors interact and evolve dynamically according to the “law” of economic selection. Under this view, financial agents compete and adapt, but they do not necessarily do so in an optimal fashion. Evolutionary and ecological models of financial markets is truly a new frontier whose exploration has just begun.

Sobre o contágio nos mercados bolsistas internacionais: evidência de nove países

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Estudo sobre o efeito de contágio nos mercados financeiros de acções: aplicação aos índices de acções europeus, americanos, asiáticos e brasileiro no período de Janeiro de 1996 a Junho de 2009 e no sub-período da crise subprime

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Análise técnica dos principais índices bolsistas europeus

Mestrado em Controlo e Gestão e dos Negócios

Casos especiais na avaliação de empresas

Mestrado em Controlo de Gestão e dos Negócios

Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexity in market players' interactions and generated emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. In order to provide players with competitive advantage in the market, decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful. In this context arises MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), a multi-agent based simulator that models real electricity markets. To reinforce MASCEM with the capability of recreating the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is crucial to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents a new negotiation model implemented in MASCEM based on the negotiation model used in day-ahead market (Elspot) of Nord Pool. This is a key module to study competitive electricity markets, as it presents well defined and distinct characteristics from the already implemented markets, and it is a reference electricity market in Europe (the one with the larger amount of traded power).

Arvonmääritysmallien toimivuus osakkeen arvonmäärityksessä

Tutkielma käy läpi arvonmääritysmallien toimivuutta osakkeen arvonmäärityksessä.

Asiakasarvon selvittäminen ja palvelukonseptin kehittäminen muovialan pk-yrityksessä

Kahden yrityksen väliset transaktiot perustuvat pohjimmiltaan asiakkaan kokemaan arvoon, eli siihen, mitä hyötyjä asiakas kokee saavansa suhteessa niihin kustannuksiin, jotka se joutuu uhraamaan ne saavuttaakseen. Tämän arvon tulee parantaa asiakkaan asemaa suhteessa sen omaan kilpailutilanteeseen ja asiakkaisiin. Arvo voi muodostua tarjooman hinnoittelusta, mutta muita asiakasarvon ulottuvuuksia voivat olla muun muassa laatutekijät sekä asiakassuhteen ja toimittajan imagon vaikutukset. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, mitkä ulottuvuuden muodostavat asiakkaan kokeman arvon case-yrityksen toimialalla sen urakoitsija- ja jälleenmyyjäasiakkailleen segmenteissä. Lisäksi analysoidaan, kuinka tuotantoon keskittyneen yrityksen tulisi kehittää palvelukonseptiaan luodakseen lisäarvoa kyseisille segmenteille ja saavuttaakseen siten kilpailuetua markkinoilla. Tutkimus on tapaustutkimus, jonka tärkeimpänä aineistonkeruumenetelmänä toimivat 17 nykyisten, entisten ja potentiaalisten asiakkaiden teemahaastattelua. Tulokset osoittavat, että toimiala on haastava lisäpalveluiden kannalta, koska ne eivät ole sille tyypillisiä. Asiakkaiden näyttää olevan erityisen vaikea tunnistaa palveluita, joista ne olisivat valmiita maksamaan. Tämä johtaa tilanteeseen, jossa asiakasuskollisuus ei ole erityisen korkea, vaan etenkin jälleenmyyjäasiakkaat ostavat tuotteet pääosin hintaan perustuen. Selkeän lisäarvopalvelukonseptin luominen voikin parantaa asiakasuskollisuutta ja sitä kautta asiakkaan elinkaaren arvoa, mikä voi rikkoa markkinoiden perinteisiä toimintamalleja case-yrityksen eduksi.

Kids Club, Un modelo de negocio exitoso del Sector del Calzado en Colombia

“Los modelos de negocio describen las bases sobre las cuales una empresa, crea, proporciona y capta valor”. Osterwalder, Alexander. (2010). Kids Club es una empresa manufacturera de calzado para niños catalogada por PROEXPORT como una de las mejores empresas Colombianas dentro del sector; y una de las pocas empresas que en menos de 10 años logro exportar sus productos a mercados internacionales a partir de técnicas administrativas empíricas. A través del siguiente estudio de caso, se pretende describir el modelo de negocio de la empresa; identificando sus segmentos de mercado, estructura de cadena de valor y mecanismos de generación de ventas con el objetivo de identificar sus factores críticos de éxito y proponer nuevas alternativas para que se mantenga como líder del sector, en el entorno empresarial actual.