A new variational radial basis function approximation for inference in multivariate diffusions

In this paper we present a radial basis function based extension to a recently proposed variational algorithm for approximate inference for diffusion processes. Inference, for state and in particular (hyper-) parameters, in diffusion processes is a challenging and crucial task. We show that the new radial basis function approximation based algorithm converges to the original algorithm and has beneficial characteristics when estimating (hyper-)parameters. We validate our new approach on a nonlinear double well potential dynamical system.

Variational approach to the closure problem of turbulence theory

A new method is proposed to solve the closure problem of turbulence theory and to drive the Kolmogorov law in an Eulerian framework. Instead of using complex Fourier components of velocity field as modal parameters, a complete set of independent real parameters and dynamic equations are worked out to describe the dynamic states of a turbulence. Classical statistical mechanics is used to study the statistical behavior of the turbulence. An approximate stationary solution of the Liouville equation is obtained by a perturbation method based on a Langevin-Fokker-Planck (LFP) model. The dynamic damping coefficient eta of the LFP model is treated as an optimum control parameter to minimize the error of the perturbation solution; this leads to a convergent integral equation for eta to replace the divergent response equation of Kraichnan's direct-interaction (DI) approximation, thereby solving the closure problem without appealing to a Lagrangian formulation. The Kolmogorov constant Ko is evaluated numerically, obtaining Ko = 1.2, which is compatible with the experimental data given by Gibson and Schwartz, (1963).

An application of adjoint variational method to the capillary instability in liquid

In this paper, applying the direct variational approach of first-order approximation to the capillary instability problem for the eases of rotating liquid column, toroid and films on both sides of cylinder, we have obtained the necessary and sufficient conditions for motion stability of the "cylindrical coreliquid-liquid-cylindrical shell" systems. The results obtained before are found to be special cases of the present investigation. At the same time, we have explained physical essence of rotating instability and settled a few disputes in previous investigations.

A variational framework for spectral discretization of the density matrix in Kohn Sham density functional theory

Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT) is currently the main work-horse of quantum mechanical calculations in physics, chemistry, and materials science. From a mechanical engineering perspective, we are interested in studying the role of defects in the mechanical properties in materials. In real materials, defects are typically found at very small concentrations e.g., vacancies occur at parts per million, dislocation density in metals ranges from $10^{10} m^{-2}$ to $10^{15} m^{-2}$, and grain sizes vary from nanometers to micrometers in polycrystalline materials, etc. In order to model materials at realistic defect concentrations using DFT, we would need to work with system sizes beyond millions of atoms. Due to the cubic-scaling computational cost with respect to the number of atoms in conventional DFT implementations, such system sizes are unreachable. Since the early 1990s, there has been a huge interest in developing DFT implementations that have linear-scaling computational cost. A promising approach to achieving linear-scaling cost is to approximate the density matrix in KSDFT. The focus of this thesis is to provide a firm mathematical framework to study the convergence of these approximations. We reformulate the Kohn-Sham density functional theory as a nested variational problem in the density matrix, the electrostatic potential, and a field dual to the electron density. The corresponding functional is linear in the density matrix and thus amenable to spectral representation. Based on this reformulation, we introduce a new approximation scheme, called spectral binning, which does not require smoothing of the occupancy function and thus applies at arbitrarily low temperatures. We proof convergence of the approximate solutions with respect to spectral binning and with respect to an additional spatial discretization of the domain. For a standard one-dimensional benchmark problem, we present numerical experiments for which spectral binning exhibits excellent convergence characteristics and outperforms other linear-scaling methods.

A variational perspective on noise-robust speech recognition

Model compensation methods for noise-robust speech recognition have shown good performance. Predictive linear transformations can approximate these methods to balance computational complexity and compensation accuracy. This paper examines both of these approaches from a variational perspective. Using a matched-pair approximation at the component level yields a number of standard forms of model compensation and predictive linear transformations. However, a tighter bound can be obtained by using variational approximations at the state level. Both model-based and predictive linear transform schemes can be implemented in this framework. Preliminary results show that the tighter bound obtained from the state-level variational approach can yield improved performance over standard schemes. © 2011 IEEE.

Two problems with variational expectation maximisation for time-series models

Variational methods are a key component of the approximate inference and learning toolbox. These methods fill an important middle ground, retaining distributional information about uncertainty in latent variables, unlike maximum a posteriori methods (MAP), and yet generally requiring less computational time than Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods. In particular the variational Expectation Maximisation (vEM) and variational Bayes algorithms, both involving variational optimisation of a free-energy, are widely used in time-series modelling. Here, we investigate the success of vEM in simple probabilistic time-series models. First we consider the inference step of vEM, and show that a consequence of the well-known compactness property of variational inference is a failure to propagate uncertainty in time, thus limiting the usefulness of the retained distributional information. In particular, the uncertainty may appear to be smallest precisely when the approximation is poorest. Second, we consider parameter learning and analytically reveal systematic biases in the parameters found by vEM. Surprisingly, simpler variational approximations (such a mean-field) can lead to less bias than more complicated structured approximations.

An eigenfunction expansion-variational method in prediction of the transverse thermal conductivity of fiber reinforced composites considering interfacial characteristics

An eigenfunction expansion-variational method based on a unit cell is developed to deal with the steady-state heat conduction problem of doubly-periodic fiber reinforced composites with interfacial thermal contact resistance or coating. The numerical results show a rapid convergence of the present method. The present solution provides a unified first-order approximation formula of the effective thermal conductivity for different interfacial characteristics and fiber distributions. A comparison with the present high-order results, available experimental data and micromechanical estimations demonstrates that the first-order approximation formula is a good engineering closed-form formula. An engineering equivalent parameter reflecting the overall influence of the thermal conductivities of the matrix and fibers and the interfacial characteristic on the effective thermal conductivity, is found. The equivalent parameter can greatly simplify the complicated relation of the effective thermal conductivity to the internal structure of a composite. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variational calculation of static and dynamic vibrational nonlinear optical properties

The vibrational configuration interaction method used to obtain static vibrational (hyper)polarizabilities is extended to dynamic nonlinear optical properties in the infinite optical frequency approximation. Illustrative calculations are carried out on H2 O and N H3. The former molecule is weakly anharmonic while the latter contains a strongly anharmonic umbrella mode. The effect on vibrational (hyper)polarizabilities due to various truncations of the potential energy and property surfaces involved in the calculation are examined

Variational calculation of vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties

A variational approach for reliably calculating vibrational linear and nonlinear optical properties of molecules with large electrical and/or mechanical anharmonicity is introduced. This approach utilizes a self-consistent solution of the vibrational Schrödinger equation for the complete field-dependent potential-energy surface and, then, adds higher-level vibrational correlation corrections as desired. An initial application is made to static properties for three molecules of widely varying anharmonicity using the lowest-level vibrational correlation treatment (i.e., vibrational Møller-Plesset perturbation theory). Our results indicate when the conventional Bishop-Kirtman perturbation method can be expected to break down and when high-level vibrational correlation methods are likely to be required. Future improvements and extensions are discussed

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

Infrared intensities of furan, pyrrole and thiophene: beyond the double harmonic approximation

Infrared intensities of the fundamental, overtone and combination transitions in furan, pyrrole and thiophene have been calculated using the variational normal coordinate code MULTIMODE. We use pure vibrational wavefunctions, and quartic force fields and cubic dipole moment vector surfaces, generated by density functional theory. The results are compared graphically with second-order perturbation calculations and with relative intensities from experiment for furan and pyrrole.

Variational approach in weighted Sobolev spaces to scattering by unbounded rough surfaces

We consider the problem of scattering of time harmonic acoustic waves by an unbounded sound soft surface which is assumed to lie within a finite distance of some plane. The paper is concerned with the study of an equivalent variational formulation of this problem set in a scale of weighted Sobolev spaces. We prove well-posedness of this variational formulation in an energy space with weights which extends previous results in the unweighted setting [S. Chandler-Wilde and P. Monk, SIAM J. Math. Anal., 37 (2005), pp. 598–618] to more general inhomogeneous terms in the Helmholtz equation. In particular, in the two-dimensional case, our approach covers the problem of plane wave incidence, whereas in the three-dimensional case, incident spherical and cylindrical waves can be treated. As a further application of our results, we analyze a finite section type approximation, whereby the variational problem posed on an infinite layer is approximated by a variational problem on a bounded region.

A method for merging flow-dependent forecast error statistics from an ensemble with static statistics for use in high resolution variational data assimilation

The background error covariance matrix, B, is often used in variational data assimilation for numerical weather prediction as a static and hence poor approximation to the fully dynamic forecast error covariance matrix, Pf. In this paper the concept of an Ensemble Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (EnRRKF) is outlined. In the EnRRKF the forecast error statistics in a subspace defined by an ensemble of states forecast by the dynamic model are found. These statistics are merged in a formal way with the static statistics, which apply in the remainder of the space. The combined statistics may then be used in a variational data assimilation setting. It is hoped that the nonlinear error growth of small-scale weather systems will be accurately captured by the EnRRKF, to produce accurate analyses and ultimately improved forecasts of extreme events.

Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay

This paper describes the implementation of a 3D variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a morphodynamic model applied to Morecambe Bay, UK. A simple decoupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model is combined with a data assimilation scheme to investigate the ability of such methods to improve the accuracy of the predicted bathymetry. The inverse forecast error covariance matrix is modelled using a Laplacian approximation which is calibrated for the length scale parameter required. Calibration is also performed for the Soulsby-van Rijn sediment transport equations. The data used for assimilation purposes comprises waterlines derived from SAR imagery covering the entire period of the model run, and swath bathymetry data collected by a ship-borne survey for one date towards the end of the model run. A LiDAR survey of the entire bay carried out in November 2005 is used for validation purposes. The comparison of the predictive ability of the model alone with the model-forecast-assimilation system demonstrates that using data assimilation significantly improves the forecast skill. An investigation of the assimilation of the swath bathymetry as well as the waterlines demonstrates that the overall improvement is initially large, but decreases over time as the bathymetry evolves away from that observed by the survey. The result of combining the calibration runs into a pseudo-ensemble provides a higher skill score than for a single optimized model run. A brief comparison of the Optimal Interpolation assimilation method with the 3D-Var method shows that the two schemes give similar results.

A variational method to retrieve the extinction profile in liquid clouds using multiple field-of-view lidar

Liquid clouds play a profound role in the global radiation budget but it is difficult to remotely retrieve their vertical profile. Ordinary narrow field-of-view (FOV) lidars receive a strong return from such clouds but the information is limited to the first few optical depths. Wideangle multiple-FOV lidars can isolate radiation scattered multiple times before returning to the instrument, often penetrating much deeper into the cloud than the singly-scattered signal. These returns potentially contain information on the vertical profile of extinction coefficient, but are challenging to interpret due to the lack of a fast radiative transfer model for simulating them. This paper describes a variational algorithm that incorporates a fast forward model based on the time-dependent two-stream approximation, and its adjoint. Application of the algorithm to simulated data from a hypothetical airborne three-FOV lidar with a maximum footprint width of 600m suggests that this approach should be able to retrieve the extinction structure down to an optical depth of around 6, and total opticaldepth up to at least 35, depending on the maximum lidar FOV. The convergence behavior of Gauss-Newton and quasi-Newton optimization schemes are compared. We then present results from an application of the algorithm to observations of stratocumulus by the 8-FOV airborne “THOR” lidar. It is demonstrated how the averaging kernel can be used to diagnose the effective vertical resolution of the retrieved profile, and therefore the depth to which information on the vertical structure can be recovered. This work enables exploitation of returns from spaceborne lidar and radar subject to multiple scattering more rigorously than previously possible.