Assessment of fracture risk : value of random population-based samples - the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Fracture risk is determined by bone mineral density (BMD). The T-score, a measure of fracture risk, is the position of an individual's BMD in relation to a reference range. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of change in the T-score when different sampling techniques were used to produce the reference range. Reference ranges were derived from three samples, drawn from the same region: (1) an age-stratified population-based random sample, (2) unselected volunteers, and (3) a selected healthy subset of the population-based sample with no diseases or drugs known to affect bone. T-scores were calculated using the three reference ranges for a cohort of women who had sustained a fracture and as a group had a low mean BMD (ages 35-72 yr; n = 484). For most comparisons, the T-scores for the fracture cohort were more negative using the population reference range. The difference in T-scores reached 1.0 SD. The proportion of the fracture cohort classified as having osteoporosis at the spine was 26, 14, and 23% when the population, volunteer, and healthy reference ranges were applied, respectively. The use of inappropriate reference ranges results in substantial changes to T-scores and may lead to inappropriate management.

The value of visual fleece assessment in addition to objective measurements in identifying Angora goats of greater clean mohair production

Visual assessment of the fleece of Merino sheep is an accepted method to aid genetic improvement but there is little evidence to support the use of visual assessment for improving mohair production. This paper examines the extent that visual traits, including staple length, character (staple crimp), staple definition, tippiness, style and staple entanglement, are related to clean fleece weight in animals of similar live weight and mean fibre diameter (MFD) from the same flock. Measurements were made over 9 shearing periods on a population of castrated Angora males (wethers) goats representing the current range and diversity of genetic origins in Australia, including South African, Texan and interbred admixtures of these and Australian sources (these different genetic origins are defined as Breed in this work). Data on genetic origin, sire, dam, lifetime characteristics (date of birth, dam age, birth weight, birth parity (single or twin), weaning weight), live weight, fleece growth and visual fleece attributes were recorded. A restricted maximum likelihood (REML) model was developed to relate clean fleece weight with age, MFD, average fleece-free live weight, lifetime characteristics and visual fleece attributes. There were separate linear responses of clean fleece weight to MFD and staple length for each age group, a quadratic response to the square root of average fleece-free live weight, an effect of sire breed and linear responses to dam age, staple definition score and character. Depending on age at shearing, the increase in clean fleece weight was between about 50 and 80. g for each increase of 1. μm in MFD. At similar MFD, clean fleece weight was generally greater at summer shearings compared with winter shearings. There was a strong increase in clean fleece weight with average fleece-free live weight up to around 50. kg but little response in clean fleece weight for animals larger than 50. kg. There was some evidence of a smaller increase in clean fleece weight as the age of dam increased. There was an effect of Breed in the model but this effect disappeared when a random sire effect was included in the model. There was a positive response to staple length at some age groups but the response did not differ from zero in other age groups. This response varied from negligible to about 70. g per 1. cm increase in staple length. Clean fleece weight increased about 40. g per unit increase in staple definition score and increased about 30. g for every 4 units increase in the number of staple crimps. There was no evidence that clean fleece weight was affected by staple style, staple tip score or staple entanglement score or lifetime factors such as birth weight, date of birth, birth parity, or weaning weight. The results show that using a combination of measuring MFD and visually assessing the fleece for staple length, staple definition and crimps can help identify the most profitable Angora goats. In this process, the objective measurement of MFD appears essential. Visual assessment will provide some extra benefit in identifying these animals above that provided by measuring MFD alone. Animal size should be considered by mohair producers when identifying more productive mohair producing animals. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Consumption smoothing in Latin America: an empirical assessment of present value models

The study aims to assess the empirical adherence of the permanent income theory and the consumption smoothing view in Latin America. Two present value models are considered, one describing household behavior and the other open economy macroeconomics. Following the methodology developed in Campbell and Schiller (1987), Bivariate Vector Autoregressions are estimated for the saving ratio and the real growth rate of income concerning the household behavior model and for the current account and the change in national cash ‡ow regarding the open economy model. The countries in the sample are considered separately in the estimation process (individual system estimation) as well as jointly (joint system estimation). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SURE) estimates of the coe¢cients are generated. Wald Tests are then conducted to verify if the VAR coe¢cient estimates are in conformity with those predicted by the theory. While the empirical results are sensitive to the estimation method and discount factors used, there is only weak evidence in favor of the permanent income theory and consumption smoothing view in the group of countries analyzed.

Assessment of value creation in private equity: the acquisition of Burger King by 3G Capital

This thesis elaborates the creation of value in private equity and in particular analyzes value creation in 3G Capital’s acquisition of Burger King. In this sense, a specific model is applied that composes value creation into several drivers, in order to answer the question of how value creation can be addressed in private equity investments. Although previous research by Achleitner et al. (2010) introduced a specific model that addresses value creation in private equity, the respective model was neither applied to an individual company, nor linked to indirect drivers that explain the dynamics and rationales for the creation of value. In turn this paper applies the quantitative model to an ongoing private equity investment and thereby provides different extensions to turn the model into a better forecasting model for ongoing investments, instead of only analyzing a deal that has already been divested from an ex post perspective. The chosen research approach is a case study about the Burger King buyout that first includes an extensive review about the current status of academic literature, second a quantitative calculation and qualitative interpretation of different direct value drivers, third a qualitative breakdown of indirect drivers, and lastly a recapitulating discussion about value creation and value drivers. Presenting a very successful private equity investment and elaborately demonstrating the dynamics and mechanisms that drive value creation in this case, provides important implications for other private equity firms as well as public firms in order to develop their proprietary approach towards value creation.

Environmental value, valuation methods, and natural disaster damage assessment

Includes bibliography

Reactive power planning under conditional-value-at-risk assessment using chance-constrained optimisation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Limited value of ultrasound assessment in patients with poor outcome after carpal tunnel release surgerys

[EN] OBJECTIVE: To determine the value of ultrasonography in the assessment of patients with idiopathic carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) and poor outcome after carpal tunnel release. METHODS: A total of 88 consecutive patients with CTS (104 hands) underwent open surgical release of the median nerve. Ultrasound (US) examination was performed blind to any patient's data. The median nerve area at tunnel inlet and outlet, the retinaculum distance, and the flattening ratio were measured. The main outcome variable was the patient's overall satisfaction using a five-point Likert scale (1 = worse, 2 = no change, 3 = slightly better, 4 = much better, 5 = cured) at 3 months postoperatively. Pre- and postoperative ultrasonographic findings in relation to clinical outcome were analysed. RESULTS: Improvement (scores 4 or 5 on the Likert scale) was recorded in 75 hands (72%). After carpal tunnel release, the cross-sectional area at tunnel inlet decreased from a mean of 14.2 to 13.3 mm2 in the group with clinical improvement and also from a mean of 12.5 to 11.6 mm2 in the group with no change or slight improvement. No significant changes in the cross-sectional area at tunnel outlet, retinaculum distance, and flattening ratio were observed. CONCLUSION: Reduction of the median nerve cross-sectional area at tunnel inlet at 3 months after carpal tunnel release was similar in patients reporting cure or great improvement and in those with slight or no improvement. Ultrasonography is of limited value in assessment of patients with poor outcome after median nerve release.

An assessment of the business value of traceability practices in the italian fishery processing industry

Traceability is often perceived by food industry executives as an additional cost of doing business, one to be avoided if possible. However, a traceability system can in fact comply the regulatory requirements, increase food safety and recall performance, improving marketing performances and, as well as, improving supply chain management. Thus, traceability affects business performances of firms in terms of costs and benefits determined by traceability practices. Costs and benefits affect factors such as, firms’ characteristics, level of traceability and ,lastly, costs and benefits perceived prior to traceability implementation. This thesis was undertaken to understand how these factors are linked to affect the outcome of costs and benefits. Analysis of the results of a plant level survey of the Italian ichthyic processing industry revealed that processors generally adopt various level of traceability while government support appears to increase the level of traceability and the expectations and actual costs and benefits. None of the firms’ characteristics, with the exception of government support, influences costs and level of traceability. Only size of firms and level of QMS certifications are linked with benefits while precision of traceability increases benefits without affecting costs. Finally, traceability practices appear due to the request from “external“ stakeholders such as government, authority and customers rather than “internal” factors (e.g. improving the firm management) while the traceability system does not provide any added value from the market in terms of price premium or market share increase.

Pastoral Livelihoods in South Ethiopia - Value Chain Assessment of Gum & Resins in Moyale Area

This research assessed the value chain of gum and resins, which are available in four woreda in the southern lowlands of Ethiopia. They are Moyale Somali, Moyale Oromia, Dhas and Dire woreda. The output of this research is the elaboration of three value chains. The first is a general one for all the woreda, while the other two concern the Moyale and Dubluk markets. The assessed products are the gum arabic from Acacia trees and the resin exuded by the dunkhal tree - Boswellia family. The aim of this study was not only to understand the way in which resins and gum gain value through the chain and the profit each stakeholder gains, but more importantly how pastoralists use resin and gum collection to diversify their income. The first chapter analyses what it means to be a pastoralist in the Moyale area and its challenges. The second chapter describes how the policies of the central state influenced the pastoral access to rangelands and water and the way in which this contributed to the increase of conflict among the different groups. A particular focus is on the settlement. The third chapter describes the different ethnic groups living in the studied area and their management system to preserve resources and cope with the dry season. This chapter considers the dynamic evolution of the relations among the various groups in terms of negotiating access to resources while facing political and climatic challenges. The fourth chapter illustrates the physical context and the environment, and the way in which it has been managed in order to preserve the pastoral lifestyle. The fifth chapter describes the characteristics of gum and resins in the studied area. Finally, the sixth chapter describes how the value chain methodology was applied in this specific study and its outputs.

Value of the SYNTAX score for risk assessment in the all-comers population of the randomized multicenter LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) for major adverse cardiac events in the all-comers population of the LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial. BACKGROUND: The SXscore has been shown to be an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with multivessel disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS: The SXscore was prospectively collected in 1,397 of the 1,707 patients enrolled in the LEADERS trial (patients after surgical revascularization were excluded). Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at 1-year follow-up, according to 1 of 3 SXscore tertiles. RESULTS: The 1,397 patients were divided into tertiles based on the SXscore in the following fashion: SXscore8 and 16 (SXhigh) (n=461). At 1-year follow-up, there was a significantly lower number of patients with major cardiac event-free survival in the highest tertile of SXscore (SXlow=92.2%, SXmid=91.1%, and SXhigh=84.6%; p<0.001). Death occurred in 1.5% of SXlow patients, 2.1% of SXmid patients, and 5.6% of SXhigh patients (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 3.01; p=0.002). The myocardial infarction rate tended to be higher in the SXhigh group. Target vessel revascularization was 11.3% in the SXhigh group compared with 6.3% and 7.8% in the SXlow and SXmid groups, respectively (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.75; p=0.006). Composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target vessel revascularization was 7.8%, 8.9%, and 15.4% in the SXlow, SXmid, and SXhigh groups, respectively (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.81; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore, when applied to an all-comers patient population treated with drug-eluting stents, may allow prospective risk stratification of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. (LEADERS Trial Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating; NCT00389220).

Limited predictive value of FDG-PET for response assessment in the preoperative treatment of esophageal cancer: results of a prospective multi-center trial (SAKK 75/02)

BACKGROUND: Only responding patients benefit from preoperative therapy for locally advanced esophageal carcinoma. Early detection of non-responders may avoid futile treatment and delayed surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a multi-center phase ll trial, patients with resectable, locally advanced esophageal carcinoma were treated with 2 cycles of induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery. Positron emission tomography with 2[fluorine-18]fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose (FDG-PET) was performed at baseline and after induction chemotherapy. The metabolic response was correlated with tumor regression grade (TRG). A decrease in FDG tumor uptake of less than 40% was prospectively hypothesized as a predictor for histopathological non-response (TRG > 2) after CRT. RESULTS: 45 patients were included. The median decrease in FDG tumor uptake after chemotherapy correlated well with TRG after completion of CRT (p = 0.021). For an individual patient, less than 40% decrease in FDG tumor uptake after induction chemotherapy predicted histopathological non-response after completion of CRT, with a sensitivity of 68% and a specificity of 52% (positive predictive value 58%, negative predictive value 63%). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic response correlated with histopathology after preoperative therapy. However, FDG-PET did not predict non-response after induction chemotherapy with sufficient clinical accuracy to justify withdrawal of subsequent CRT and selection of patients to proceed directly to surgery.

Assessment of groups in a network organization based on the Shapley group value.

The focus of this paper is the assessment of groups of agents or units in a network organization. Given a social network, the relations between agents are modeled by means of a graph, and its functionality will be codified by means of a cooperative game. Building on previous work of Gomez et al. (2003) for the individual case, we propose a Myerson group value to evaluate the ability of each group of agents inside the social network to achieve the organization's goals. We analyze this centrality measure, and in particular we offer several decompositions that facilitate obtaining a precise interpretation of it.

Information value/burden assessment : a report of the Commission on Federal Paperwork.

Mode of access: Internet.