Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Demanda de exportaciones e importaciones de bienes y servicios para Argentina y Chile

Incluye Bibliografía

Crescimento econômico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos, no Brasil: 1951-2008

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Uso de Ascophyllum nodosum para o enraizamento de microestacas de eucalipto

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Effects of dexmedetomidine on pulse pressure variation changes induced by hemorrhage followed by volume replacement in isoflurane-anesthetized dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of dipyrone, meloxicam, or the combination on hemostasis in conscious dogs

To compare the effects of dipyrone, meloxicam, and of the combination of these drugs on hemostasis in dogs. Prospective, blinded, randomized crossover study. Research laboratory at a veterinary teaching hospital. Six adult dogs. Animals received 4 intravenous treatments with 15-day washout intervals: control (physiological saline, 0.1 mL/kg), meloxicam (0.2 mg/kg), dipyrone (25 mg/kg), and dipyrone-meloxicam (25 and 0.2 mg/kg, respectively). A jugular catheter was placed for drug injection and for collecting samples for whole blood platelet aggregation (WBPA) and thromboelastometry assays at baseline, 1, 2, 3, 5, and 8 hours after treatment administration. The percent change from baseline of lag time and of the area under the curve (AUC) of impedance changes in response to collagen-induced platelet activation were recorded during WBPA. Thromboelastometry-derived parameters included clotting time, clot formation time, alpha-angle, and maximum clot firmness. The buccal mucosal bleeding time was evaluated by a blinded observer at baseline, 1, 3, and 5 hours after treatment injection. No significant changes in WBPA and thromboelastometry were recorded in the control treatment. Dipyrone significantly (P < 0.05) increased the lag time for 2 hours and decreased the AUC for 3 hours after injection. Meloxicam did not alter WBPA. Dipyrone-meloxicam significantly increased lag time for 2 hours and decreased the AUC for 5 hours after treatment injection. Experimental treatments did not differ from the control treatment for thromboelastometry and buccal mucosal bleeding time. While meloxicam does not alter hemostasis by the methods evaluated, dipyrone inhibits platelet aggregation for up to 3 hours. Meloxicam-dipyrone combination causes more prolonged inhibition of platelet function than dipyrone alone. Decreased platelet aggregation induced by dipyrone and dipyrone-meloxicam does not appear to impact the viscoelastic properties of the blood clot nor increase the risk of bleeding in dogs without preexisting hemostatic disorders.

Non-centrosymmetric crystals of new N-benzylideneaniline derivatives as potential materials for non-linear optics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Fatores de influência no preço do milho no Brasil

Compreender a dinâmica de funcionamento do mercado de milho brasileiro, procedendo a uma investigação dos fatores que afetam as quantidades e preços nesse mercado, é o objetivo deste trabalho. Os testes de raiz unitária foram feitos utilizando-se a metodologia DF-GLS - Dickey Fuller Generalized Least Square - e os de cointegração de Johansen (1988). O modelo estimado, de ajuste pelo preço, foi um Modelo de Autorregressão Vetorial com Correção de Erros - VEC, sendo a identificação feita pelo procedimento de Sims-Bernanke. O estudo permite afirmar que existe forte interação entre os mercados de milho e de soja, mostrando uma relação de complementaridade na oferta e substitutibilidade na demanda, e que fatores macroeconômicos como renda e juros são importantes na determinação dos preços do milho ao produtor e no atacado. Vale ressaltar que os preços externos do milho mostraram relativa importância no processo de formação do preço doméstico do grão.

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Pattern recognition analysis on heavy ion reaction data

One of the problems in the analysis of nucleus-nucleus collisions is to get information on the value of the impact parameter b. This work consists in the application of pattern recognition techniques aimed at associating values of b to groups of events. To this end, a support vec- tor machine (SVM) classifier is adopted to analyze multifragmentation reactions. This method allows to backtracing the values of b through a particular multidimensional analysis. The SVM classification con- sists of two main phase. In the first one, known as training phase, the classifier learns to discriminate the events that are generated by two different model:Classical Molecular Dynamics (CMD) and Heavy- Ion Phase-Space Exploration (HIPSE) for the reaction: 58Ni +48 Ca at 25 AMeV. To check the classification of events in the second one, known as test phase, what has been learned is tested on new events generated by the same models. These new results have been com- pared to the ones obtained through others techniques of backtracing the impact parameter. Our tests show that, following this approach, the central collisions and peripheral collisions, for the CMD events, are always better classified with respect to the classification by the others techniques of backtracing. We have finally performed the SVM classification on the experimental data measured by NUCL-EX col- laboration with CHIMERA apparatus for the previous reaction.

Neue Materialien für die Magnetoelektronik: Heusler- und Halb-Heusler-Phasen

Heusler- und Halb-Heusler-Phasen konnten als Verbindungsklasse identifiziert werden, neue Materialien für die Magnetoelektronik bereitzustellen. Auf Basis eines theoretischen Modells konnte das Auftreten eines hohen MR-Effekts auf bestimmte Valenzelektronenzahlen (VEK) präzisiert werden. Dazu muß ein dreiteiliger 'Fingerabdruck' in der Bandstruktur (Sattelpunkt, Spindichtewelle, lokales magnetisches Moment) vorliegen. Es existieren eine Vielzahl von halbmetallischen Ferromagneten in dieser Verbindungsklasse. Die variable Valenzelektronenkonzentrationen, die sich auch aus den hochsymmetrischen Strukturen ergeben, erlauben eine gute Dotierbarkeit der Phasen. Dadurch ist die Möglichkeit gegeben, die Phase exakt mit der geforderten VEK zu synthetisieren. Curietemperaturen > 500 K sind in Hinblick auf die technische Anwendbarkeit notwendig. PdMnTe hat nicht die Voraussetzungen für einen PMR-Effekt in der Bandstrukturrechnung, doch die Nähe zu einer halbmetallischen Zustandsdichte resultiert in einen negativen CMR-Effekt unterhalb des magnetischen Übergangs von MR0 = 18 % bei 4 K. Die Zusammenhänge von Probenpräparation zum magnetischen Sättigungsmoment konnten an Co2CrAl aufgedeckt werden. Die unter Anwendung des vorgestellten Modells synthetisierte Heusler-Phase Co2Cr0.6Fe0.4Al (VEK = 27.8) weisen den erwarteten MR-Effekt auf. Der gemessene PMR-Effekt ist größer als bei den GMR-Systemen (bei geringerer Feldempfindlichkeit) und anderen granularen Materialien wie CrO2 bei 295 K. Co2Cr0.6Fe0.4Al zeigt bei 295 K einen hohen negativen Magnetowiderstand von 30 % bei einem Sättigungsfeld von 0.2 Tesla. Durch die Beimischung von Oxiden und Polymeren sind Komposit-Materialien entwickelt worden, die MR0-Effekte von bis zu 88% mit einer verbesserten Feldempfindlichkeit von 0.1 Tesla bei Al2O3 und 0.05 Tesla bei den Oberflächenbeschichtungen zeigen.

Mode coupling for precise measurements of the electronic g-factor of hydrogen-like ions in Penning traps

The g-factor is a constant which connects the magnetic moment $vec{mu}$ of a charged particle, of charge q and mass m, with its angular momentum $vec{J}$. Thus, the magnetic moment can be writen $ vec{mu}_J=g_Jfrac{q}{2m}vec{J}$. The g-factor for a free particle of spin s=1/2 should take the value g=2. But due to quantum electro-dynamical effects it deviates from this value by a small amount, the so called g-factor anomaly $a_e$, which is of the order of $10^{-3}$ for the free electron. This deviation is even bigger if the electron is exposed to high electric fields. Therefore highly charged ions, where electric field strength gets values on the order of $10^{13}-10^{16}$V/cm at the position of the bound electron, are an interesting field of investigations to test QED-calculations. In previous experiments [H"aff00,Ver04] using a single hydrogen-like ion confined in a Penning trap an accuracy of few parts in $10^{-9}$ was obtained. In the present work a new method for precise measurement of magnetic the electronic g-factor of hydrogen-like ions is discussed. Due to the unavoidable magnetic field inhomogeneity in a Penning trap, a very important contribution to the systematic uncertainty in the previous measurements arose from the elevated energy of the ion required for the measurement of its motional frequencies. Then it was necessary to extrapolate the result to vanishing energies. In the new method the energy in the cyclotron degree of freedom is reduced to the minimum attainable energy. This method consist in measuring the reduced cyclotron frequency $nu_{+}$ indirectly by coupling the axial to the reduced cyclotron motion by irradiation of the radio frequency $nu_{coup}=nu_{+}-nu_{ax}+delta$ where $delta$ is, in principle, an unknown detuning that can be obtained from the knowledge of the coupling process. Then the only unknown parameter is the desired value of $nu_+$. As a test, a measurement with, for simplicity, artificially increased axial energy was performed yielding the result $g_{exp}=2.000~047~020~8(24)(44)$. This is in perfect agreement with both the theoretical result $g_{theo}=2.000~047~020~2(6)$ and the previous experimental result $g_{exp1}=2.000~047~025~4(15)(44).$ In the experimental results the second error-bar is due to the uncertainty in the accepted value for the electron's mass. Thus, with the new method a higher accuracy in the g-factor could lead by comparison to the theoretical value to an improved value of the electron's mass. [H"af00] H. H"affner et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 85 (2000) 5308 [Ver04] J. Verd'u et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 92 (2004) 093002-1