New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

Transdimensional sequential Monte Carlo using variational Bayes — SMCVB

A new transdimensional Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm called SM- CVB is proposed. In an SMC approach, a weighted sample of particles is generated from a sequence of probability distributions which ‘converge’ to the target distribution of interest, in this case a Bayesian posterior distri- bution. The approach is based on the use of variational Bayes to propose new particles at each iteration of the SMCVB algorithm in order to target the posterior more efficiently. The variational-Bayes-generated proposals are not limited to a fixed dimension. This means that the weighted particle sets that arise can have varying dimensions thereby allowing us the option to also estimate an appropriate dimension for the model. This novel algorithm is outlined within the context of finite mixture model estimation. This pro- vides a less computationally demanding alternative to using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels within an SMC approach. We illustrate these ideas in a simulated data analysis and in applications.

Energy-momentum conserving algorithm for nonlinear transient analysis within the framework of hybrid elements

This work deals with the formulation and implementation of an energy-momentum conserving algorithm for conducting the nonlinear transient analysis of structures, within the framework of stress-based hybrid elements. Hybrid elements, which are based on a two-field variational formulation, are much less susceptible to locking than conventional displacement-based elements within the static framework. We show that this advantage carries over to the transient case, so that not only are the solutions obtained more accurate, but they are obtained in fewer iterations. We demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm on a wide range of problems such as ones involving dynamic buckling, complicated three-dimensional motions, et cetera.

A refined analysis of composite laminates

The purpose of this paper is to develop a sufficiently accurate analysis, which is much simpler than exact three-dimensional analysis, for statics and dynamics of composite laminates. The governing differential equations and boundary conditions are derived by following a variational approach. The displacements are assumed piecewise linear across the thickness and the effects of transverse shear deformations and rotary inertia are included. A procedure for obtaining the general solution of the above governing differential equations in the form of hyperbolic-trigonometric series is given. The accuracy of the present theory is assessed by obtaining results for free vibrations and flexure of simply supported rectangular laminates and comparing them with results from exact three-dimensional analysis.

Optimal configurations of active fiber composites based on asymptotic torsional analysis - art. no. 641413

Active Fiber Composites (AFC) possess desirable characteristics over a wide range of smart structure applications, such as vibration, shape and flow control as well as structural health monitoring. This type of material, capable of collocated actuation and sensing, call be used in smart structures with self-sensing circuits. This paper proposes four novel applications of AFC structures undergoing torsion: sensors and actuators shaped as strips and tubes; and concludes with a preliminary failure analysis. To enable this, a powerful mathematical technique, the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM) was used to perform cross-sectional analyses of thin generally anisotropic AFC beams. The resulting closed form expressions have been utilized in the applications presented herein.

Improved hybrid elements for structural analysis

Hybrid elements, which are based on a two-field variational formulation with the displacements and stresses interpolated separately, are known to deliver very high accuracy, and to alleviate to a large extent problems of locking that plague standard displacement-based formulations. The choice of the stress interpolation functions is of course critical in ensuring the high accuracy and robustness of the method. Generally, an attempt is made to keep the stress interpolation to the minimum number of terms that will ensure that the stiffness matrix has no spurious zero-energy modes, since it is known that the stiffness increases with the increase in the number of terms. Although using such a strategy of keeping the number of interpolation terms to a minimum works very well in static problems, it results either in instabilities or fails to converge in transient problems. This is because choosing the stress interpolation functions merely on the basis of removing spurious energy modes can violate some basic principles that interpolation functions should obey. In this work, we address the issue of choosing the interpolation functions based on such basic principles of interpolation theory and mechanics. Although this procedure results in the use of more number of terms than the minimum (and hence in slightly increased stiffness) in many elements, we show that the performance continues to be far superior to displacement-based formulations, and, more importantly, that it also results in considerably increased robustness.

Coupled electrostatic-elastic analysis for topology optimization using material interpolation

In this paper, we present a novel analytical formulation for the coupled partial differential equations governing electrostatically actuated constrained elastic structures of inhomogeneous material composition. We also present a computationally efficient numerical framework for solving the coupled equations over a reference domain with a fixed finite-element mesh. This serves two purposes: (i) a series of problems with varying geometries and piece-wise homogeneous and/or inhomogeneous material distribution can be solved with a single pre-processing step, (ii) topology optimization methods can be easily implemented by interpolating the material at each point in the reference domain from a void to a dielectric or a conductor. This is attained by considering the steady-state electrical current conduction equation with a `leaky capacitor' model instead of the usual electrostatic equation. This formulation is amenable for both static and transient problems in the elastic domain coupled with the quasi-electrostatic electric field. The procedure is numerically implemented on the COMSOL Multiphysics (R) platform using the weak variational form of the governing equations. Examples have been presented to show the accuracy and versatility of the scheme. The accuracy of the scheme is validated for the special case of piece-wise homogeneous material in the limit of the leaky-capacitor model approaching the ideal case.

Stability analysis of stochastically parametered nonconservative columns

Nonconservatively loaded columns. which have stochastically distributed material property values and stochastic loadings in space are considered. Young's modulus and mass density are treated to constitute random fields. The support stiffness coefficient and tip follower load are considered to be random variables. The fluctuations of external and distributed loadings are considered to constitute a random field. The variational formulation is adopted to get the differential equation and boundary conditions. The non self-adjoint operators are used at the boundary of the regularity domain. The statistics of vibration frequencies and modes are obtained using the standard perturbation method, by treating the fluctuations to be stochastic perturbations. Linear dependence of vibration and stability parameters over property value fluctuations and loading fluctuations are assumed. Bounds for the statistics of vibration frequencies are obtained. The critical load is first evaluated for the averaged problem and the corresponding eigenvalue statistics are sought. Then, the frequency equation is employed to transform the eigenvalue statistics to critical load statistics. Specialization of the general procedure to Beck, Leipholz and Pfluger columns is carried out. For Pfluger column, nonlinear transformations are avoided by directly expressing the critical load statistics in terms of input variable statistics.

Fully Comprehensive Geometrically Non-Linear Dynamic Analysis of Multi-Body Beam Systems with Elastic Couplings

This paper is concerned with the dynamic analysis of flexible,non-linear multi-body beam systems. The focus is on problems where the strains within each elastic body (beam) remain small. Based on geometrically non-linear elasticity theory, the non-linear 3-D beam problem splits into either a linear or non-linear 2-D analysis of the beam cross-section and a non-linear 1-D analysis along the beam reference line. The splitting of the three-dimensional beam problem into two- and one-dimensional parts, called dimensional reduction,results in a tremendous savings of computational effort relative to the cost of three-dimensional finite element analysis,the only alternative for realistic beams. The analysis of beam-like structures made of laminated composite materials requires a much more complicated methodology. Hence, the analysis procedure based on Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM), a tool to carry out the dimensional reduction, is used here.The analysis methodology can be viewed as a 3-step procedure. First, the sectional properties of beams made of composite materials are determined either based on an asymptotic procedure that involves a 2-D finite element nonlinear analysis of the beam cross-section to capture trapeze effect or using strip-like beam analysis, starting from Classical Laminated Shell Theory (CLST). Second, the dynamic response of non-linear, flexible multi-body beam systems is simulated within the framework of energy-preserving and energy-decaying time integration schemes that provide unconditional stability for non-linear beam systems. Finally,local 3-D responses in the beams are recovered, based on the 1-D responses predicted in the second step. Numerical examples are presented and results from this analysis are compared with those available in the literature.

Nonlinear analysis of a thin pre-twisted and delaminated anisotropic strip

The present work is aimed at the development of an efficient mathematical model to assess the degradation in the stiffness properties of an anisotropic strip due to delamination. In particular, the motive is to capture those nonlinear effects in a strip that arise due to the geometry of the structure, in the presence of delamination. The variational asymptotic method (VAM) is used as a mathematical tool to simplify the original 3D problem to a 1D problem. Further simplification is achieved by modeling the delaminated structure by a sublaminate approach. By VAM, a 2D nonlinear sectional analysis is carried out to determine compact expression for the stiffness terms. The stiffness terms, both linear and nonlinear, are derived as functions of delamination length and location in closed form. In general, the results from the analysis include fully coupled nonlinear 1D stiffness coefficients, 3D strain field, 3D stress field, and in-plane and warping fields. In this work, the utility of the model is demonstrated for a static case, and its capability to capture the trapeze effect in the presence of delamination is investigated and compared with results available in the literature.

Conservation Properties of the Trapezoidal Rule in Linear Time Domain Analysis of Acoustics and Structures

The trapezoidal rule, which is a special case of the Newmark family of algorithms, is one of the most widely used methods for transient hyperbolic problems. In this work, we show that this rule conserves linear and angular momenta and energy in the case of undamped linear elastodynamics problems, and an ``energy-like measure'' in the case of undamped acoustic problems. These conservation properties, thus, provide a rational basis for using this algorithm. In linear elastodynamics problems, variants of the trapezoidal rule that incorporate ``high-frequency'' dissipation are often used, since the higher frequencies, which are not approximated properly by the standard displacement-based approach, often result in unphysical behavior. Instead of modifying the trapezoidal algorithm, we propose using a hybrid finite element framework for constructing the stiffness matrix. Hybrid finite elements, which are based on a two-field variational formulation involving displacement and stresses, are known to approximate the eigenvalues much more accurately than the standard displacement-based approach, thereby either bypassing or reducing the need for high-frequency dissipation. We show this by means of several examples, where we compare the numerical solutions obtained using the displacement-based and hybrid approaches against analytical solutions.

Variational approach to homogenization of doubly-nonlinear flow in a periodic structure

This work deals with the homogenization of an initial- and boundary-value problem for the doubly-nonlinear system D(t)w - del.(z) over right arrow = g(x, t, x/epsilon) (0.1) w is an element of alpha(u, x/epsilon) (0.2) (z) over right arrow is an element of (gamma) over right arrow (del u, x/epsilon) (0.3) Here epsilon is a positive parameter; alpha and (gamma) over right arrow are maximal monotone with respect to the first variable and periodic with respect to the second one. The inclusions (0.2) and (0.3) are here formulated as null-minimization principles, via the theory of Fitzpatrick MR 1009594]. As epsilon -> 0, a two-scale formulation is derived via Nguetseng's notion of two-scale convergence, and a (single-scale) homogenized problem is then retrieved. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variational approach to homogenization of doubly-nonlinear flow in a periodic structure

This work deals with the homogenization of an initial- and boundary-value problem for the doubly-nonlinear system D(t)w - del.(z) over right arrow = g(x, t, x/epsilon) (0.1) w is an element of alpha(u, x/epsilon) (0.2) (z) over right arrow is an element of (gamma) over right arrow (del u, x/epsilon) (0.3) Here epsilon is a positive parameter; alpha and (gamma) over right arrow are maximal monotone with respect to the first variable and periodic with respect to the second one. The inclusions (0.2) and (0.3) are here formulated as null-minimization principles, via the theory of Fitzpatrick MR 1009594]. As epsilon -> 0, a two-scale formulation is derived via Nguetseng's notion of two-scale convergence, and a (single-scale) homogenized problem is then retrieved. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.