Efficient and accurate experimental design for enzyme kinetics: Bayesian studies reveal a systematic approach

In areas such as drug development, clinical diagnosis and biotechnology research, acquiring details about the kinetic parameters of enzymes is crucial. The correct design of an experiment is critical to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. As classical design methods are not targeted to the more complex kinetics being frequently studied, attention is needed to estimate parameters of such models with low variance. We demonstrate that a Bayesian approach (the use of prior knowledge) can produce major gains quantifiable in terms of information, productivity and accuracy of each experiment. Developing the use of Bayesian Utility functions, we have used a systematic method to identify the optimum experimental designs for a number of kinetic model data sets. This has enabled the identification of trends between kinetic model types, sets of design rules and the key conclusion that such designs should be based on some prior knowledge of K-M and/or the kinetic model. We suggest an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of the design such as the substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. The final design collects data suitable for accurate modelling and analysis and minimises the error in the parameters estimated. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal hedging with higher moments

This study proposes a utility-based framework for the determination of optimal hedge ratios (OHRs) that can allow for the impact of higher moments on hedging decisions. We examine the entire hyperbolic absolute risk aversion family of utilities which include quadratic, logarithmic, power, and exponential utility functions. We find that for both moderate and large spot (commodity) exposures, the performance of out-of-sample hedges constructed allowing for nonzero higher moments is better than the performance of the simpler OLS hedge ratio. The picture is, however, not uniform throughout our seven spot commodities as there is one instance (cotton) for which the modeling of higher moments decreases welfare out-of-sample relative to the simpler OLS. We support our empirical findings by a theoretical analysis of optimal hedging decisions and we uncover a novel link between OHRs and the minimax hedge ratio, that is the ratio which minimizes the largest loss of the hedged position. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark

Visual attention and attribute attendance in multi-attribute choice experiments

Decision strategies in multi-attribute Choice Experiments are investigated using eye-tracking. The visual attention towards, and attendance of, attributes is examined. Stated attendance is found to diverge substantively from visual attendance of attributes. However, stated and visual attendance are shown to be informative, non-overlapping sources of information about respondent utility functions when incorporated into model estimation. Eye-tracking also reveals systematic nonattendance of attributes only by a minority of respondents. Most respondents visually attend most attributes most of the time. We find no compelling evidence that the level of attention is related to respondent certainty, or that higher or lower value attributes receive more or less attention

Using attribute importance rankings within discrete choice experiments: an application to valuing bread attributes

We present a new Bayesian econometric specification for a hypothetical Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) incorporating respondent ranking information about attribute importance. Our results indicate that a DCE debriefing question that asks respondents to rank the importance of attributes helps to explain the resulting choices. We also examine how mode of survey delivery (online and mail) impacts model performance, finding that results are not substantively a§ected by the mode of survey delivery. We conclude that the ranking data is a complementary source of information about respondent utility functions within hypothetical DCEs

A estrutura de decisão do operador de transporte de cargas pelo usuário varejista de pequeno porte

Este trabalho tem por objetivo investigar e identificar a influência dos atributos que estruturam a escolha do transportador de carga geral fracionada pelos usuários, em uma determinada rota nacional, baseado na modelagem da demanda. xii A modelagem da demanda é efetuada com base em Modelos Comportamentais Desagregados, utilizando-se as técnicas de Preferência Declarada (Stated Preference), na obtenção dos dados. A determinação das preferências dos decisores são analisadas, buscandose assim quantificar o valor das variáveis que compõem o nível de serviço desejado pelos varejistas usuários. O estudo enfoca o comportamento do varejista usuário de serviços de transporte de cargas com relação a tomada de decisão sobre a transportadora que executará o serviço de transporte de carga. Esta tomada de decisão do varejista usuário leva em consideração que cada operador valoriza os atributos em diferentes graus e que estes fazem parte do nível de serviço de cada transportadora. As técnicas de Preferência Declarada forneceram dados para estimar as funções de Utilidade levando em consideração os diferentes níveis de atributos de cada transportadora. A partir da função de Utilidade de cada transportadora, é estimada a probabilidade de escolha de cada transportadora. A modelagem permite a realização de simulações, a partir de alterações no grau dos atributos das variáveis do modelo, na qual se determinará a parcela de mercado de cada transportadora e a sua respectiva participação no mercado em estudo. Dentre os principais resultados, pode se observar que a modelagem da demanda em transporte de cargas, apesar de pouco utilizada, é coerente com a realidade analisada, validando a metodologia utilizada neste estudo.

Um modelo de competição baseada em tempo nos mercados financeiros

O objetivo deste trabalho é modelar o comportamento estratégico dos indivíduos diante de um choque estocástico que desloca o preço de determinado ativo financeiro do seu equilíbrio inicial. Investiga-se o caminho do preço de mercado em direção ao novo equilíbrio, conduzido pelas sucessivas negociações dos agentes em busca de oportunidades de obter lucros imediatos. Os operadores, que por suposição possuem funções de utilidade avessas ao risco, devem escolher a quantidade ótima transacionada e quanto devem aguardar para executar as suas ordens, tendo em vista a diminuição da volatilidade do preço do ativo à medida que as transações se sucedem após o choque. Procura-se demonstrar que os operadores que aceitam incorrer em riscos mais elevados negociam com maior frequência e em volumes e velocidades maiores, usufruindo lucros esperados mais altos que os demais.

Preferences, common knowledge and speculative trade

We study the proposition that if it is common knowledge that en allocation of assets is ex-ante pareto efficient, there is no further trade generated by new information. The key to this result is that the information partitions and other characteristics of the agents must be common knowledge and that contracts, or asset markets, must be complete. It does not depend on learning, on 'lemons' problems, nor on agreement regarding beliefs and the interpretation of information. The only requirement on preferences is state-additivity; in particular, traders need not be risk-averse. We also prove the converse result that "no-trade results" imply that traders' preferences can be represented by state-additive utility functions. We analyze why examples of other widely studied preferences (e.g., Schmeidler (1989)) allow "speculative" trade.

Beyond indifferent players: on the existence of prisoners dilemmas in games with amicable and adversarial preferences

Why don’t agents cooperate when they both stand to gain? This question ranks among the most fundamental in the social sciences. Explanations abound. Among the most compelling are various configurations of the prisoner’s dilemma (PD), or public goods problem. Payoffs in PD’s are specified in one of two ways: as primitive cardinal payoffs or as ordinal final utility. However, as final utility is objectively unobservable, only the primitive payoff games are ever observed. This paper explores mappings from primitive payoff to utility payoff games and demonstrates that though an observable game is a PD there are broad classes of utility functions for which there exists no associated utility PD. In particular we show that even small amounts of either altruism or enmity may disrupt the mapping from primitive payoff to utility PD. We then examine some implications of these results.

On the differentiability of the consumer demand function

For strictly quasi concave differentiable utility functions, demand is shown to be differentiable almost everywhere if marginal utilities are pointwise Lipschitzian. For concave utility functions, demand is differentiable almost everywhere in the case of differentiable additively separable utility or in the case of quasi-linear utility.

Estimando a aversão ao risco, a taxa de desconto intertemporal, e a substutibilidade intertemporal do consumo no Brasil usando três tipos de função utilidade

Nesse trabalho estima-se, usando o método generalizado dos momentos e dados brasileiros, os parâmetros estruturais do modelo CCAPM (consumption capital asset pricing model) a partir de três classes de funções utilidade distintas: função utilidade potência (CRRA), utilidade com hábito externo, e aversão ao desapontamento (Kreps-Porteus). Estes parâmetros estruturais estão associados à aversão ao risco, à elasticidade de substituição intertemporal no consumo e à taxa de desconto intertemporal da utilidade futura. Os resultados aqui obtidos são analisados e comparados com resultados anteriores para dados brasileiros e americanos. Adicionalmente, testa-se econometricamente todos os modelos estruturais estimados a partir do teste de restrições de sobre-identificação, para investigar, da forma mais abrangente possível, se há ou não equity premium puzzle para o Brasil. Os resultados surpreendem, dado que, em raríssimas ocasiões, se rejeita as restrições implícitas nesses modelos. Logo, conclui-se que não há equity premium puzzle para o Brasil.

Do dividends signal more earnings?

Signaling models have contributed to the corporate finance literature by formalizing "the informational content of dividends" hypothesis. However, these models are under criticism of empirical literature, as weak evidences were found supporting one of the main predicitions: the positive relation between changes in dividends and changes in earnings. We claim thaht the failure to verify this prediction does not invalidate the signaling approach. The models developed up to now assume or derive utility functions with the single-crossing property. We show thaht signaling is possible in the absence of this property and, in this case, changes in dividend and changes in earnings can be positively or negatively related.

Integrability and the demand for monetary assets: an alternative approach to an old problem

This note provides necessary and su¢cient conditions for some speci…c multidimensional consumer’s surplus welfare measures to be well posed (path independent). We motivate the problem by investigating partial-equilibrium measures of the welfare costs of in‡ation. The results can also be used for checking path independence of alternative de…nitions of Divisia indexes of monetary services. Consumer theory classically approaches the integrability problem by considering compensated demands, homothetic preferences or quasi-linear utility functions. Here, instead, we consider demands of monetary assets generated from a shopping-time perspective. Paralleling the above mentioned procedure, of …nding special classes of utility functions that satisfy the integrability conditions, we try to infer what particular properties of the transacting technology could assure path independence of multidimensional welfare measures. We show that the integrability conditions are satis…ed if and only if the transacting technology is blockwise weakly separable. We use two examples to clarify the point.

International integration and long- run persistence of the GNP distribution

We use the Ramsey model of g,Towth elaborated by Bliss [1995] and Ventlira [1997] to show how international integration results in long-nm persistellce Df GNPs distribution, while allowing, under certain conditions on parameters, for convergellce during the transition. First, we pi·ovide relationships which explicitly relate, in the neighborhood of the steady-state, the magnitude of conditional convergence or divergence to the fundamentaIs of the economies. Second, we present ali analysis of the Cobb Douglas case with a broad dass of utility functions and show that there is always transitional convergenee with this technology. Third, directions for testing the Illodel against the traditional dosed-ecollomy setting are proposed. These lead to adding specific and world-wide regTessors to traditional growth regressions.

On the impossibility of prisoner's dilemmas in adversarial preference games

Why don't agents cooperate when they both stand to gain? This question ranks among the most fundamental in the social sciences. Explanations abound. Among the most compelling are various configurations of the prisonerís dilemma (PD), or public goods problem. Payoffs in PDís are specified in one of two ways: as primitive cardinal payoffs or as ordinal final utility. However, as final utility is objectively unobservable, only the primitive payoff games are ever observed. This paper explores mappings from primitive payoff to utility payoff games and demonstrates that though an observable game is a PD there are broad classes of utility functions for which there exists no associated utility PD. In particular we show that even small amounts of either altruism or jealousy may disrupt the mapping from primitive payoff to utility PD. We then examine some implications of these results ñ including the possibility of conflict inducing growth.

Do dividends signal more earnings? a theoretical analysis

The signaling models have contributed to the literature of corporate finance by the formalization of "the informational content of dividends hypothesis". However, these models are under criticism of empirical works, as weak evidences were found supporting one of the main predictions: the positive relation between changes in dividends and changes in earnings. We claim that the failure to verify this prediction does not invalidate the signaling approach. The mo deIs developed up to now assume or derive utility functions with the single-crossing property. We show that signaling is possible in the absence of this property and, in this case, changes in dividend and changes in earnings can be positively or negatively related.