Multisite analysis of the timing and outcomes of unplanned transfers from subacute to acute care

Objective The aim of the present study was to examine the timing and outcomes of patients requiring an unplanned transfer from subacute to acute care. Methods Subacute care in-patients requiring unplanned transfer to an acute care facility within four Victorian health services from 1 January to 31 December 2010 were included in the study. Data were collected using retrospective audit. The primary outcome was transfer within 24h of subacute care admission. Results In all, 431 patients (median age 81 years) had unplanned transfers; of these, 37.8% had a limitation of medical treatment (LOMT) order. The median subacute care length of stay was 43h: 29.0% of patients were transferred within 24h and 83.5% were transferred within 72h of subacute care admission. Predictors of transfer within 24h were comorbidity weighting (odds ratio (OR) 1.1, P≤0.02) and LOMT order (OR 2.1, P<0.01). Hospital admission occurred in 87.2% of patients and 15.4% died in hospital. Predictors of in-hospital mortality were comorbidity weighting (OR 1.2, P<0.01) and the number of physiological abnormalities in the 24h preceding transfer (OR 1.3, P<0.01). Conclusions There is a high rate of unplanned transfers to acute care within 24h of admission to subacute care. Unplanned transfers are associated with high hospital admission and in-hospital mortality rates. What is known about the topic? Subacute care is becoming a high acuity environment where many patients are at significant risk of clinical deterioration. Systems for recognising and responding to deteriorating patients are well developed in acute care, but still developing in subacute care. What does this paper add? This is the first Australian multisite study of clinical deterioration in patients situated in subacute care facilities. One-third of unplanned transfers occur within 24h of admission to subacute care. Patients who require unplanned transfer from subacute to acute care have unexpectedly high hospital admission rates and high in-hospital mortality rates. The frequency and completeness of physiological monitoring preceding transfer was low. What are the implications for practitioners? Patients in subacute care require regular physiological assessment and early escalation of care if there are physiological abnormalities. Risk of clinical deterioration should be a factor in the decision to admit patients to subacute care after an acute illness or injury. There is a need to improve systems for recognising and responding to deteriorating patients in subacute care settings.

A telephone support program to reduce costs and hospital admissions for patients at risk of readmissions: lessons from an evaluation of a complex health intervention

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a telephone health coaching and support service provided to members of an Australian private health insurance fund-Telephonic Complex Care Program (TCCP)-on hospital use and associated costs. A case-control pre-post study design was employed using propensity score matching. Private health insurance members (n=273) who participated in TCCP between April and December 2012 (cases) were matched (1:1) to members who had not previously been enrolled in the program or any other disease management programs offered by the insurer (n=232). Eligible members were community dwelling, aged ≥65 years, and had 2 or more hospital admissions in the 12 months prior to program enrollment. Preprogram variables that estimated the propensity score included: participant demographics, diagnoses, and hospital use in the 12 months prior to program enrollment. TCCP participants received one-to-one telephone support, personalized care plan, and referral to community-based services. Control participants continued to access usual health care services. Primary outcomes were number of hospital admission claims and total benefits paid for all health care utilizations in the 12 months following program enrollment. Secondary outcomes included change in total benefits paid, hospital benefits paid, ancillary benefits paid, and total hospital bed days over the 12 months post enrollment. Compared with matched controls, TCCP did not appear to reduce health care utilization or benefits paid in the 12 months following program enrollment. However, program characteristics and implementation may have impacted its effectiveness. In addition, challenges related to evaluating complex health interventions such as TCCP are discussed.

Incidence of low central venous oxygen saturation during unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit: an observational study

INTRODUCTION: It has been shown that early central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2)-guided optimization of hemodynamics can improve outcome in septic patients. The early ScvO2 profile of other patient groups is unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize unplanned admissions in a multidisciplinary intensive care unit (ICU) with respect to ScvO2 and outcome. METHODS: Ninety-eight consecutive unplanned admissions to a multidisciplinary ICU (median age 63 [range 19 to 83] years, median Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS II] 43 [range 11 to 92]) with a clinical indication for a central venous catheter were included in the study. ScvO2 was assessed at ICU arrival and six hours later but was not used to guide treatment. Length of stay in ICU (LOSICU) and in hospital (LOShospital) and 28-day mortality were recorded. RESULTS: ScvO2 was 70% +/- 12% (mean +/- standard deviation) at admission and 71% +/- 10% six hours later (p = 0.484). Overall 28-day mortality was 18%, LOSICU was 3 (1 to 28) days, and LOShospital was 19 (1 to 28) days. Patients with an ScvO2 of less than 60% at admission had higher mortality than patients with an ScvO2 of more than 60% (29% versus 17%, p < 0.05). Changes in ScvO2 during the first six hours were not predictive of LOSICU, LOShospital, or mortality. CONCLUSION: Low ScvO2 in unplanned admissions and high SAPS II are associated with increased mortality. Standard ICU treatment increased ScvO2 in patients with a low admission ScvO2, but the increase was not associated with LOSICU or LOShospital.

Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Predictability of unplanned extubations

Acute life threatening events such as cardiac/respiratory arrests are often predictable in adults and children. However critical events such as unplanned extubations are considered as not predictable. This paper seeks to evaluate the ability of automated prediction systems based on feature space embedding and time series methods to predict unplanned extubations in paediatric intensive care patients. We try to exploit the trends in the physiological signals such as Heart Rate, Respiratory Rate, Systolic Blood Pressure and Oxygen saturation levels in the blood using signal processing aspects of a frame-based approach of expanding signals using a nonorthogonal basis derived from the data. We investigate the significance of the trends in a computerised prediction system. The results are compared with clinical observations of predictability. We will conclude by investigating whether the prediction capability of the system could be exploited to prevent future unplanned extubations. © 2014 IEEE.

The prevalence of hyperglycaemia and its relationship with mortality, readmissions and length of stay in an older acute surgical population : a multicentre study

Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The prevalence of hyperglycaemia and its relationship with mortality, readmissions and length of stay in an older acute surgical population : a multicentre study

Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/