Mid-term Evaluation of the 2009-14 European Parliament: Legislative activity and decision-making dynamics. CEPS Special Report, 23 July 2012

This special report analyses legislative activity in the European Union and coalition formation in the European Parliament (EP) during the first half of the 7th legislative term, 2009-14. Co-decision is now the ordinary legislative procedure, not by name only: it was deployed on 90% of new proposals in 2010 and 86% in 2011, which suggests that the EP is now more influential than ever. There are differences in the degree of empowerment across committees, however. This report looks at the legislative workload of selected committees as an indicator of change in their influence, identifying which of them won and which lost out in terms of the quantity and type of legislation they tackle.

The frequency and dynamics of stratospheric sudden warmings in the 21st century

Changes to stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) over the coming century, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) chemistry climate model [Atmospheric Model With Transport and Chemistry (AMTRAC)], are investigated in detail. Two sets of integrations, each a three-member ensemble, are analyzed. The first set is driven with observed climate forcings between 1960 and 2004; the second is driven with climate forcings from a coupled model run, including trace gas concentrations representing a midrange estimate of future anthropogenic emissions between 1990 and 2099. A small positive trend in the frequency of SSWs is found. This trend, amounting to 1 event/decade over a century, is statistically significant at the 90% confidence level and is consistent over the two sets of model integrations. Comparison of the model SSW climatology between the late 20th and 21st centuries shows that the increase is largest toward the end of the winter season. In contrast, the dynamical properties are not significantly altered in the coming century, despite the increase in SSW frequency. Owing to the intrinsic complexity of our model, the direct cause of the predicted trend in SSW frequency remains an open question.

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

Water vapor variability in the tropics and its links to dynamics and precipitation

The distribution and variability of water vapor and its links with radiative cooling and latent heating via precipitation are crucial to understanding feedbacks and processes operating within the climate system. Column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and additional variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in tropical water vapor over the period 1979–2001. The moisture variability is partitioned between dynamical and thermodynamic influences and compared with variations in precipitation provided by the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The spatial distribution of CWV is strongly determined by thermodynamic constraints. Spatial variability in CWV is dominated by changes in the large-scale dynamics, in particular associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Trends in CWV are also dominated by dynamics rather than thermodynamics over the period considered. However, increases in CWV associated with changes in temperature are significant over the equatorial east Pacific when analyzing interannual variability and over the north and northwest Pacific when analyzing trends. Significant positive trends in CWV tend to predominate over the oceans while negative trends in CWV are found over equatorial Africa and Brazil. Links between changes in CWV and vertical motion fields are identified over these regions and also the equatorial Atlantic. However, trends in precipitation are generally incoherent and show little association with the CWV trends. This may in part reflect the inadequacies of the precipitation data sets and reanalysis products when analyzing decadal variability. Though the dynamic component of CWV is a major factor in determining precipitation variability in the tropics, in some regions/seasons the thermodynamic component cancels its effect on precipitation variability.

Summertime precipitation variability over europe and its links to atmospheric dynamics and evaporation

Gridded monthly precipitation data for 1979-2006 from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project are used to investigate interannual summer precipitation variability over Europe and its links to regional atmospheric circulation and evaporation. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of European precipitation, explaining 17.2%-22.8% of its total variance, is stable during the summer season and is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatialtemporal structure of the second EOF mode is less stable and shows monthtomonth variations during the summer season. This mode is linked to the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. Analysis of links between leading EOF modes of regional precipitation and evaporation has revealed a significant link between precipitation and evaporation from the European land surface, thus, indicating an important role of the local processes in summertime precipitation variability over Europe. Weaker, but statistically significant links have been found for evaporation from the surface of the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Finally, in contrast to winter, no significant links have been revealed between European precipitation and evaporation in the North Atlantic during the summer season.

Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments

[1] We present a new, process-based model of soil and stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC): the Integrated Catchments Model for Carbon (INCA-C). INCA-C is the first model of DOC cycling to explicitly include effects of different land cover types, hydrological flow paths, in-soil carbon biogeochemistry, and surface water processes on in-stream DOC concentrations. It can be calibrated using only routinely available monitoring data. INCA-C simulates daily DOC concentrations over a period of years to decades. Sources, sinks, and transformation of solid and dissolved organic carbon in peat and forest soils, wetlands, and streams as well as organic carbon mineralization in stream waters are modeled. INCA-C is designed to be applied to natural and seminatural forested and peat-dominated catchments in boreal and temperate regions. Simulations at two forested catchments showed that seasonal and interannual patterns of DOC concentration could be modeled using climate-related parameters alone. A sensitivity analysis showed that model predictions were dependent on the mass of organic carbon in the soil and that in-soil process rates were dependent on soil moisture status. Sensitive rate coefficients in the model included those for organic carbon sorption and desorption and DOC mineralization in the soil. The model was also sensitive to the amount of litter fall. Our results show the importance of climate variability in controlling surface water DOC concentrations and suggest the need for further research on the mechanisms controlling production and consumption of DOC in soils.

High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder measurements of gravity wave activity in the 2006 Arctic stratosphere

Observations from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) instrument on NASA's Aura satellite are used to quantify gravity wave momentum fluxes in the middle atmosphere. The period around the 2006 Arctic sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is investigated, during which a substantial elevation of the stratopause occurred. Analysis of the HIRDLS results, together with analysis of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting zonal winds, provide direct evidence of wind filtering of the gravity wave spectrum during this period. This confirms previous hypotheses from model studies and further contributes to our understanding of the effects of gravity wave driving on the winter polar stratopause.

Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled sun-to-Earth model: challenges and first results

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

Controls on boundary layer ventilation: Boundary layer processes and large-scale dynamics

Midlatitude cyclones are important contributors to boundary layer ventilation. However, it is uncertain how efficient such systems are at transporting pollutants out of the boundary layer, and variations between cyclones are unexplained. In this study 15 idealized baroclinic life cycles, with a passive tracer included, are simulated to identify the relative importance of two transport processes: horizontal divergence and convergence within the boundary layer and large-scale advection by the warm conveyor belt. Results show that the amount of ventilation is insensitive to surface drag over a realistic range of values. This indicates that although boundary layer processes are necessary for ventilation they do not control the magnitude of ventilation. A diagnostic for the mass flux out of the boundary layer has been developed to identify the synoptic-scale variables controlling the strength of ascent in the warm conveyor belt. A very high level of correlation (R-2 values exceeding 0.98) is found between the diagnostic and the actual mass flux computed from the simulations. This demonstrates that the large-scale dynamics control the amount of ventilation, and the efficiency of midlatitude cyclones to ventilate the boundary layer can be estimated using the new mass flux diagnostic. We conclude that meteorological analyses, such as ERA-40, are sufficient to quantify boundary layer ventilation by the large-scale dynamics.

Suprathermal electron flux peaks at stream interfaces: Signature of solar wind dynamics or tracer for open magnetic flux transport on the Sun?

The high variability of the intensity of suprathermal electron flux in the solar wind is usually ascribed to the high variability of sources on the Sun. Here we demonstrate that a substantial amount of the variability arises from peaks in stream interaction regions, where fast wind runs into slow wind and creates a pressure ridge at the interface. Superposed epoch analysis centered on stream interfaces in 26 interaction regions previously identified in Wind data reveal a twofold increase in 250 eV flux (integrated over pitch angle). Whether the peaks result from the compression there or are solar signatures of the coronal hole boundary, to which interfaces may map, is an open question. Suggestive of the latter, some cases show a displacement between the electron and magnetic field peaks at the interface. Since solar information is transmitted to 1 AU much more quickly by suprathermal electrons compared to convected plasma signatures, the displacement may imply a shift in the coronal hole boundary through transport of open magnetic flux via interchange reconnection. If so, however, the fact that displacements occur in both directions and that the electron and field peaks in the superposed epoch analysis are nearly coincident indicate that any systematic transport expected from differential solar rotation is overwhelmed by a random pattern, possibly owing to transport across a ragged coronal hole boundary.

Inflation dynamics in the new EU member states: how relevant are external factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

Remarkable dynamics of nanoparticles in the urban atmosphere

Nanoparticles emitted from road traffic are the largest source of respiratory exposure for the general public living in urban areas. It has been suggested that the adverse health effects of airborne particles may scale with the airborne particle number, which if correct, focuses attention on the nanoparticle (less than 100 nm) size range which dominates the number count in urban areas. Urban measurements of particle size distributions have tended to show a broadly similar pattern dominated by a mode centred on 20–30 nm diameter particles emitted by diesel engine exhaust. In this paper we report the results of measurements of particle number concentration and size distribution made in a major London park as well as on the BT Tower, 160 m high. These measurements taken during the REPARTEE project (Regents Park and BT Tower experiment) show a remarkable shift in particle size distributions with major losses of the smallest particle class as particles are advected away from the traffic source. In the Park, the traffic related mode at 20–30 nm diameter is much reduced with a new mode at <10 nm. Size distribution measurements also revealed higher number concentrations of sub-50 nm particles at the BT Tower during days affected by higher turbulence as determined by Doppler Lidar measurements and indicate a loss of nanoparticles from air aged during less turbulent conditions. These results suggest that nanoparticles are lost by evaporation, rather than coagulation processes. The results have major implications for understanding the impacts of traffic-generated particulate matter on human health.

High resolution Northern Hemisphere wintertime mid-latitude dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum

Hourly winter weather of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is simulated using the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) on a globally resolved T170 (75 km) grid. Results are compared to a longer LGM climatological run with the same boundary conditions and monthly saves. Hourly-scale animations are used to enhance interpretations. The purpose of the study is to explore whether additional insights into ice age conditions can be gleaned by going beyond the standard employment of monthly average model statistics to infer ice age weather and climate. Results for both LGM runs indicate a decrease in North Atlantic and increase in North Pacific cyclogenesis. Storm trajectories react to the mechanical forcing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with Pacific storms tracking over middle Alaska and northern Canada, terminating in the Labrador Sea. This result is coincident with other model results in also showing a significant reduction in Greenland wintertime precipitation – a response supported by ice core evidence. Higher-temporal resolution puts in sharper focus the close tracking of Pacific storms along the west coast of North America. This response is consistent with increased poleward heat transport in the LGM climatological run and could help explain “early” glacial warming inferred in this region from proxy climate records. Additional analyses shows a large increase in central Asian surface gustiness that support observational inferences that upper-level winds associated with Asian- Pacific storms transported Asian dust to Greenland during the LGM.

Fair trade and European public procurement: legal principles and governance dynamics

Purpose The article examines principles of Fair Trade in public procurement in Europe, focusing on legal dimensions related to the European Public Procurement Directives. Design/methodology/approach The article situates public procurement of Fair Trade products in relation to the rise of non-state regulatory initiatives, highlighting how they have entered into new governance dynamics in the public sector and play a part in changing practices in sustainable procurement. A review of legal position on Fair Trade in procurement law is informed by academic research and campaigning experience from the Fair Trade Advocacy Office. Findings Key findings are that the introduction of Fair Trade products into European public procurement has been marked by legal ambiguity, having developed outside comprehensive policy or legal guidelines. Following a 2012 ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union, it is suggested that the legal position for Fair Trade in procurement has become clearer, and that forthcoming change to the Public Procurement Directives may facilitate the uptake of fair trade products by public authorities. However potential for future expansion of the public sector ‘market’ for Fair Trade is approached with caution: purchasing Fair Trade products as a marker of sustainability, which started to be embedded within procurement practice in the 2000s, is challenged by current European public austerity measures. Research limitations/implications Suggestions for future research include the need for systematic cross-institutional and multi-country comparison of the legal and governance dimensions of procurement practice with regard to Fair Trade. Practical implications A clarification of current state-of-play with regard to legal aspects of fair trade in public procurement of utility for policy and advocacy discussion. Originality/value The article provides needed elaboration on an under researched topic area of value to academia and policy makers.