Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Reduction of setup uncertainties and tumor motion in the radiation therapy of lung tumors

Because the goal of radiation therapy is to deliver a lethal dose to the tumor, accurate information on the location of the tumor needs to be known. Margins are placed around the tumor to account for variations in the daily position of the tumor. If tumor motion and patient setup uncertainties can be reduced, margins that account for such uncertainties in tumor location in can be reduced allowing dose escalation, which in turn could potentially improve survival rates. ^ In the first part of this study, we monitor the location of fiducials implanted in the periphery of lung tumors to determine the extent of non-gated and gated fiducial motion, and to quantify patient setup uncertainties. In the second part we determine where the tumor is when different methods of image-guided patient setup and respiratory gating are employed. In the final part we develop, validate, and implement a technique in which patient setup uncertainties are reduced by aligning patients based upon fiducial locations in projection images. ^ Results from the first part indicate that respiratory gating reduces fiducial motion relative to motion during normal respiration and setup uncertainties when the patients were aligned each day using externally placed skin marks are large. The results from the second part indicate that current margins that account for setup uncertainty and tumor motion result in less than 2% of the tumor outside of the planning target volume (PTV) when the patient is aligned using skin marks. In addition, we found that if respiratory gating is going to be used, it is most effective if used in conjunction with image-guided patient setup. From the third part, we successfully developed, validated, and implemented on a patient a technique for aligning a moving target prior to treatment to reduce the uncertainties in tumor location. ^ In conclusion, setup uncertainties and tumor motion are a significant problem when treating tumors located within the thoracic region. Image-guided patient setup in conjunction with treatment delivery using respiratory gating reduces these uncertainties in tumor locations. In doing so, margins around the tumor used to generate the PTV can be reduced, which may allow for dose escalation to the tumor. ^

Renewables: The great uncertainty of the EU energy strategy. Egmont Paper No. 71, November 2014

Summary. For more than two decades, the development of renewable energy sources (RES) has been an important aim of EU energy policy. It accelerated with the adoption of a 1997 White Paper and the setting a decade later of a 20% renewable energy target, to be reached by 2020. The EU counts on renewable energy for multiple purposes: to diversify its energy supply; to increase its security of supply; and to create new industries, jobs, economic growth and export opportunities, while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many expectations rest on its development. Fossil fuels have been critical to the development of industrial nations, including EU Member States, which are now deeply reliant upon coal, oil and gas for nearly every aspect of their existence. Faced with some hard truths, however, the Member States have begun to shelve fossil fuel. These hard truths are as follows: firstly, fossil fuels are a finite resource, sometimes difficult to extract. This means that, at some point, fossil fuels are going to be more difficult to access in Europe or too expensive to use.1 The problem is that you cannot just stop using fossil fuels when they become too expensive; the existing infrastructure is profoundly reliant on fossil fuels. It is thus almost normal that a fierce resistance to change exists. Secondly, fossil fuels contribute to climate change. They emit GHG, which contribute greatly to climate change. As a consequence, their use needs to be drastically reduced. Thirdly, Member States are currently suffering a decline in their own fossil fuel production. This increases their dependence on increasingly costly fossil fuel imports from increasingly unstable countries. This problem is compounded by global developments: the growing share of emerging economies in global energy demand (in particular China and India but also the Middle East) and the development of unconventional oil and gas production in the United States. All these elements endanger the competitiveness of Member States’ economies and their security of supply. Therefore, new indigenous sources of energy and a diversification of energy suppliers and routes to convey energy need to be found. To solve all these challenges, in 2008 the EU put in place a strategy based on three objectives: sustainability (reduction of GHG), competitiveness and security of supply. The adoption of a renewable energy policy was considered essential for reaching these three strategic objectives. The adoption of the 20% renewable energy target has undeniably had a positive effect in the EU on the growth in renewables, with the result that renewable energy sources are steadily increasing their presence in the EU energy mix. They are now, it can be said, an integral part of the EU energy system. However, the necessity of reaching this 20% renewable energy target in 2020, combined with other circumstances, has also engendered in many Member States a certain number of difficulties, creating uncertainties for investors and postponing benefits for consumers. The electricity sector is the clearest example of this downside. Subsidies have become extremely abundant and vary from one Member State to another, compromising both fair competition and single market. Networks encountered many difficulties to develop and adapt. With technological progress these subsidies have also become quite excessive. The growing impact of renewable electricity fluctuations has made some traditional power plants unprofitable and created disincentives for new investments. The EU does clearly need to reassess its strategy. If it repeats the 2008 measures it will risk to provoke increased instability and costs.

The downsides of downsizing: Communication processes and information needs in the aftermath of a workforce reduction strategy

This study explored the impact of downsizing on levels of uncertainty, coworker and management trust, and communicative effectiveness in a health care organization downsizing during a 2-year period from 660 staff to 350 staff members. Self-report data were obtained from employees who were staying (survivors), from employees were being laid off (victims), and from employees with and without managerial responsibilities. Results indicated that downsizing had a similar impact on the amount of trust that survivors and victims had for management. However, victims reported feeling lower levels of trust toward their colleagues compared with survivors. Contrary to expectations, survivors and victims reported similar perceptions of job and organizational uncertainty and similar levels of information received about changes. Employees with no management responsibilities and middle managers both reported lower scores than did senior managers on all aspects of information received. Implications for practice and the management of the communication process are discussed.

Are you sure? the role of uncertainty in career

Although uncertainty is a fundamental human experience, professionals in the career field have largely overlooked the role that it plays in people's careers. The changed nature of careers has resulted in people experiencing increased uncertainty in their career that is beyond the uncertainty experienced in their job. The author explores the role of uncertainty in people's experience of their careers and examines the implications for career counseling theory and practice. A review of the career theory and career counseling literature indicates that although contemporary approaches have been offered to respond to the changed nature of career, none of the approaches have identified uncertainty as a core part of individuals' experience of their career. The broader literature on uncertainty is then reviewed at the societal, organizational, and individual levels.

Dimensionality reduction in complex models

As a part of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM) project, research at Aston University will develop methods for dimensionality reduction of the input and/or output spaces of models, as seen within the emulator framework. Towards this end this report describes a framework for generating toy datasets, whose underlying structure is understood, to facilitate early investigations of dimensionality reduction methods and to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithms employed, both in terms of how effective they are for given types of models / situations, and also their speed in applications and how this scales with various factors. The framework, which allows the evaluation of both screening and projection approaches to dimensionality reduction, is described. We also describe the screening and projection methods currently under consideration and present some preliminary results. The aim of this draft of the report is to solicit feedback from the project team on the dataset generation framework, the methods we propose to use, and suggestions for extensions that should be considered.

Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

Reduction Of Blood Nitric Oxide Levels Is Associated With Clinical Improvement Of The Chronic Pelvic Pain Related To Endometriosis.

The objective of this prospective study was to determine the plasma levels of nitric oxide (NO) in women with chronic pelvic pain secondary to endometriosis (n=24) and abdominal myofascial pain syndrome (n=16). NO levels were measured in plasma collected before and 1 month after treatment. Pretreatment NO levels (μM) were lower in healthy volunteers (47.0±12.7) than in women with myofascial pain (64.2±5.0, P=0.01) or endometriosis (99.5±12.9, P<0.0001). After treatment, plasma NO levels were reduced only in the endometriosis group (99.5±12.9 vs 61.6±5.9, P=0.002). A correlation between reduction of pain intensity and reduction of NO level was observed in the endometriosis group [correlation = 0.67 (95%CI = 0.35 to 0.85), P<0.0001]. Reduction of NO levels was associated with an increase of pain threshold in this group [correlation = -0.53 (-0.78 to -0.14), P<0.0001]. NO levels appeared elevated in women with chronic pelvic pain diagnosed as secondary to endometriosis, and were directly associated with reduction in pain intensity and increase in pain threshold after treatment. Further studies are needed to investigate the role of NO in the pathophysiology of pain in women with endometriosis and its eventual association with central sensitization.

Reduction Of Oxidative Damage And Inflammatory Response In The Diaphragm Muscle Of Mdx Mice Using Iron Chelator Deferoxamine.

Oxidative stress and inflammatory processes strongly contribute to pathogenesis in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Based on evidence that excess iron may increase oxidative stress and contribute to the inflammatory response, we investigated whether deferoxamine (DFX), a potent iron chelating agent, reduces oxidative stress and inflammation in the diaphragm (DIA) muscle of mdx mice (an experimental model of DMD). Fourteen-day-old mdx mice received daily intraperitoneal injections of DFX at a dose of 150 mg/kg body weight, diluted in saline, for 14 days. C57BL/10 and control mdx mice received daily intraperitoneal injections of saline only, for 14 days. Grip strength was evaluated as a functional measure, and blood samples were collected for biochemical assessment of muscle fiber degeneration. In addition, the DIA muscle was removed and processed for histopathology and Western blotting analysis. In mdx mice, DFX reduced muscle damage and loss of muscle strength. DFX treatment also resulted in a significant reduction of dystrophic inflammatory processes, as indicated by decreases in the inflammatory area and in NF-κB levels. DFX significantly decreased oxidative damage, as shown by lower levels of 4-hydroxynonenal and a reduction in dihydroethidium staining in the DIA muscle of mdx mice. The results of the present study suggest that DFX may be useful in therapeutic strategies to ameliorate dystrophic muscle pathology, possibly via mechanisms involving oxidative and inflammatory pathways.

Effect of propolis gel on the in vitro reduction of dentin permeability

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the capacity of potassium oxalate, fluoride gel and two kinds of propolis gel to reduce the hydraulic conductance of dentin, in vitro. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The methodology used for the measurement of hydraulic conductance of dentin in the present study was based on a model proposed in literature. Thirty-six 1-mm-thick dentin discs, obtained from extracted human third molars were divided into 4 groups (n=9). The groups corresponded to the following experimental materials: GI-10% propolis gel, pH 4.1; GII-30% propolis gel; GIII-3% potassium oxalate gel, pH 4,1; and GIV-1.23% fluoride gel, pH 4.1, applied to the dentin under the following surface conditions: after 37% phosphoric acid and before 6% citric acid application. The occluding capacity of the dentin tubules was evaluated using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) at ×500, ×1,000 and ×2,000 magnifications. Data were analyzed statistically by two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test at 5% significance level. RESULTS: Groups I, II, III, IV did not differ significantly from the others in any conditions by reducing in hydraulic conductance. The active agents reduced dentin permeability; however they produced the smallest reduction in hydraulic conductance when compared to the presence of smear layer (P<0.05). The effectiveness in reducing dentin permeability did not differ significantly from 10% or 30% propolis gels. SEM micrographs revealed that dentin tubules were partially occluded after treatment with propolis. CONCLUSIONS: Under the conditions of this study, the application of 10% and 30% propolis gels did not seem to reduce the hydraulic conductance of dentin in vitro, but it showed capacity of partially obliterating the dentin tubules. Propolis is used in the treatment of different oral problems without causing significant great collateral effects, and can be a good option in the treatment of patients with dentin sensitivity.

Use of chewing gum containing 15% of xylitol and reduction in mutans streptococci salivary levels

Frequent use of Xylitol may decrease the S. mutans levels. However, very little is known about whether this effect on the levels of cariogenic bacteria is maintained after the interruption of short-term usage of xylitol. This study aimed at evaluating changes in mutans streptococci (MS) salivary levels after using a chewing gum containing xylitol. Twelve volunteers harboring > 10(5) CFU MS/ml saliva levels were asked to chew Happydent-xylit® for 5 minutes, 5 X/day, for 30 days. Saliva samples were collected at baseline, at 30 days after xylitol usage began, and at 30 days beyond its interruption. MS salivary levels were estimated. The average salivary levels of MS in the ten subjects who completed the study were 13.17 (NL-CFU) at baseline (A). After the 30 days experimental period (B), this average decreased to 9.45 (NL-CFU). Nine of ten subjects studied showed a reduction in MS salivary levels in relation to baseline, whereas salivary levels were maintained in the remaining subject. At thirty days beyond the interruption of xylitol usage (C), the average levels of MS were still reduced to 10.31 (NL-CFU). Multiple sample comparison using the Bonferroni test revealed that the decrease in MS levels observed from baseline (A) to the time immediately after 30 days of xylitol usage (B) was statistically significant (p < 0.05), and those levels were still decreased between baseline and 30 days beyond the interruption of xylitol usage (C). So, the use of xylitol induced a reduction in MS salivary levels after a short period of usage which persisted beyond its interruption.

Sildenafil preserves diastolic relaxation after reduction by L-NAME and increases phosphodiesterase-5 in the intercalated discs of cardiac myocytes and arterioles

OBJECTIVES: We investigated the influence of sildenafil on cardiac contractility and diastolic relaxation and examined the distribution of phosphodiesterase-5 in the hearts of hypertensive rats that were treated with by NG-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME). METHODS: Male Wistar rats were treated with L-NAME and/or sildenafil for eight weeks. The Langendorff method was used to examine the effects of sildenafil on cardiac contractility and diastolic relaxation. The presence and location of phosphodiesterase-5 and phosphodiesterase-3 were assessed by immunohistochemistry, and cGMP plasma levels were measured by ELISA. RESULTS: In isolated hearts, sildenafil prevented the reduction of diastolic relaxation (dP/dt) that was induced by L-NAME. In addition, phosphodiesterase-5 immunoreactivity was localized in the intercalated discs between the myocardial cells. The staining intensity was reduced by L-NAME, and sildenafil treatment abolished this reduction. Consistent with these results, the plasma levels of cGMP were decreased in the L-NAME-treated rats but not in rats that were treated with L-NAME + sildenafil. CONCLUSION: The sildenafil-induced attenuation of the deleterious hemodynamic and cardiac morphological effects of L-NAME in cardiac myocytes is mediated (at least in part) by the inhibition of phosphodiesterase-5.

Drag reduction by polyethylene glycol in the tail arterial bed of normotensive and hypertensive rats

This study was designed to evaluate the effect of drag reducer polymers (DRP) on arteries from normotensive (Wistar) and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). Polyethylene glycol (PEG 4000 at 5000 ppm) was perfused in the tail arterial bed with (E+) and without endothelium (E-) from male, adult Wistar (N = 14) and SHR (N = 13) animals under basal conditions (constant flow at 2.5 mL/min). In these preparations, flow-pressure curves (1.5 to 10 mL/min) were constructed before and 1 h after PEG 4000 perfusion. Afterwards, the tail arterial bed was fixed and the internal diameters of the arteries were then measured by microscopy and drag reduction was assessed based on the values of wall shear stress (WSS) by computational simulation. In Wistar and SHR groups, perfusion of PEG 4000 significantly reduced pulsatile pressure (Wistar/E+: 17.5 ± 2.8; SHR/E+: 16.3 ± 2.7%), WSS (Wistar/E+: 36; SHR/E+: 40%) and the flow-pressure response. The E- reduced the effects of PEG 4000 on arteries from both groups, suggesting that endothelial damage decreased the effect of PEG 4000 as a DRP. Moreover, the effects of PEG 4000 were more pronounced in the tail arterial bed from SHR compared to Wistar rats. In conclusion, these data demonstrated for the first time that PEG 4000 was more effective in reducing the pressure-flow response as well as WSS in the tail arterial bed of hypertensive than of normotensive rats and these effects were amplified by, but not dependent on, endothelial integrity. Thus, these results show an additional mechanism of action of this polymer besides its mechanical effect through the release and/or bioavailability of endothelial factors.

Memantine prevents cardiomyocytes nuclear size reduction in the left ventricle of rats exposed to cold stress

OBJECTIVES: Memantine is an N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) glutamate receptor antagonist used to treat Alzheimer's disease. Previous studies have suggested that receptor blockers act as neuroprotective agents; however, no study has specifically investigated the impact that these drugs have on the heart. We sought to evaluate the effects of memantine on nuclear size reduction in cardiac cells exposed to cold stress. METHOD: We used male EPM-Wistar rats (n=40) divided into 4 groups: 1) Matched control (CON); 2) Memantine-treated rats (MEM); 3) Rats undergoing induced hypothermia (IH) and 4) Rats undergoing induced hypothermia that were also treated with memantine (IHM). Animals in the MEM and IHM groups were treated by oral gavage administration of 20 mg/kg/day memantine over an eight-day period. Animals in the IH and IHM groups were submitted to 4 hours of hypothermia in a controlled environment with a temperature of - 8ºC on the last day of the study. RESULTS: The MEM group had the largest cardiomyocyte nuclear size (151 ± 3.5 μm³ vs. CON: 142 ± 2.3 μm³; p<0.05), while the IH group had the smallest mean value of nuclear size. The nuclear size of the IHM group was preserved (125 ± 2.9 μm³) compared to the IH group (108 ± 1.7 μm³; p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Memantine prevented the nuclear size reduction of cardiomyocytes in rats exposed to cold stress.