Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

A two-sector growth model with institutional saving and investment

This paper develops a two-sector growth model in which institutional investors play a significant role. A necessary and sufficient condition is established under which these investors own the entire capital stock in the long run. The dependence of the long-run growth rate on the behaviour of such investors, and the effects of a productivity increase are analysed.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

A two-compartment mathematical model of neuroglial metabolism using [1-(11)C] acetate.

The purpose of this study was to develop a two-compartment metabolic model of brain metabolism to assess oxidative metabolism from [1-(11)C] acetate radiotracer experiments, using an approach previously applied in (13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), and compared with an one-tissue compartment model previously used in brain [1-(11)C] acetate studies. Compared with (13)C MRS studies, (11)C radiotracer measurements provide a single uptake curve representing the sum of all labeled metabolites, without chemical differentiation, but with higher temporal resolution. The reliability of the adjusted metabolic fluxes was analyzed with Monte-Carlo simulations using synthetic (11)C uptake curves, based on a typical arterial input function and previously published values of the neuroglial fluxes V(tca)(g), V(x), V(nt), and V(tca)(n) measured in dynamic (13)C MRS experiments. Assuming V(x)(g)=10 × V(tca)(g) and V(x)(n)=V(tca)(n), it was possible to assess the composite glial tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle flux V(gt)(g) (V(gt)(g)=V(x)(g) × V(tca)(g)/(V(x)(g)+V(tca)(g))) and the neurotransmission flux V(nt) from (11)C tissue-activity curves obtained within 30 minutes in the rat cortex with a beta-probe after a bolus infusion of [1-(11)C] acetate (n=9), resulting in V(gt)(g)=0.136±0.042 and V(nt)=0.170±0.103 μmol/g per minute (mean±s.d. of the group), in good agreement with (13)C MRS measurements.

Steady-state brain glucose transport kinetics re-evaluated with a four-state conformational model.

Glucose supply from blood to brain occurs through facilitative transporter proteins. A near linear relation between brain and plasma glucose has been experimentally determined and described by a reversible model of enzyme kinetics. A conformational four-state exchange model accounting for trans-acceleration and asymmetry of the carrier was included in a recently developed multi-compartmental model of glucose transport. Based on this model, we demonstrate that brain glucose (G(brain)) as function of plasma glucose (G(plasma)) can be described by a single analytical equation namely comprising three kinetic compartments: blood, endothelial cells and brain. Transport was described by four parameters: apparent half saturation constant K(t), apparent maximum rate constant T(max), glucose consumption rate CMR(glc), and the iso-inhibition constant K(ii) that suggests G(brain) as inhibitor of the isomerisation of the unloaded carrier. Previous published data, where G(brain) was quantified as a function of plasma glucose by either biochemical methods or NMR spectroscopy, were used to determine the aforementioned kinetic parameters. Glucose transport was characterized by K(t) ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 mM, T(max)/CMR(glc) from 4.6 to 5.6, and K(ii) from 51 to 149 mM. It was noteworthy that K(t) was on the order of a few mM, as previously determined from the reversible model. The conformational four-state exchange model of glucose transport into the brain includes both efflux and transport inhibition by G(brain), predicting that G(brain) eventually approaches a maximum concentration. However, since K(ii) largely exceeds G(plasma), iso-inhibition is unlikely to be of substantial importance for plasma glucose below 25 mM. As a consequence, the reversible model can account for most experimental observations under euglycaemia and moderate cases of hypo- and hyperglycaemia.

Not one odour but two: A new model for nestmate recognition.

Recognition systems play a key role in a range of biological processes, including mate choice, immune defence and altruistic behaviour. Social insects provide an excellent model for studying recognition systems because workers need to discriminate between nestmates and non-nestmates, enabling them to direct altruistic behaviour towards closer kin and to repel potential invaders. However, the level of aggression directed towards conspecific intruders can vary enormously, even among workers within the same colony. This is usually attributed to differences in the aggression thresholds of individuals or to workers having different roles within the colony. Recent evidence from the weaver ant Oecophylla smaragdina suggests that this does not tell the whole story. Here I propose a new model for nestmate recognition based on a vector template derived from both the individual's innate odour and the shared colony odour. This model accounts for the recent findings concerning weaver ants, and also provides an alternative explanation for why the level of aggression expressed by a colony decreases as the diversity within the colony increases, even when odour is well-mixed. The model makes additional predictions that are easily tested, and represents a significant advance in our conceptualisation of recognition systems.

A fully adaptive numerical approximation for a two-dimensional epidemic model with nonlinear cross-diffusion

An epidemic model is formulated by a reactionâeuro"diffusion system where the spatial pattern formation is driven by cross-diffusion. The reaction terms describe the local dynamics of susceptible and infected species, whereas the diffusion terms account for the spatial distribution dynamics. For both self-diffusion and cross-diffusion, nonlinear constitutive assumptions are suggested. To simulate the pattern formation two finite volume formulations are proposed, which employ a conservative and a non-conservative discretization, respectively. An efficient simulation is obtained by a fully adaptive multiresolution strategy. Numerical examples illustrate the impact of the cross-diffusion on the pattern formation.

Diffusionless first-order phase transitions in systems with frozen configurational degrees of freedom

We consider systems that can be described in terms of two kinds of degree of freedom. The corresponding ordering modes may, under certain conditions, be coupled to each other. We may thus assume that the primary ordering mode gives rise to a diffusionless first-order phase transition. The change of its thermodynamic properties as a function of the secondary-ordering-mode state is then analyzed. Two specific examples are discussed. First, we study a three-state Potts model in a binary system. Using mean-field techniques, we obtain the phase diagram and different properties of the system as a function of the distribution of atoms on the different lattice sites. In the second case, the properties of a displacive structural phase transition of martensitic type in a binary alloy are studied as a function of atomic order. Because of the directional character of the martensitic-transition mechanism, we find only a very weak dependence of the entropy on atomic order. Experimental results are found to be in quite good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Random-field Potts model with dipolarlike interactions: Hysteresis avalanches and microstructure

A model for the study of hysteresis and avalanches in a first-order phase transition from a single variant phase to a multivariant phase is presented. The model is based on a modification of the random-field Potts model with metastable dynamics by adding a dipolar interaction term truncated at nearest neighbors. We focus our study on hysteresis loop properties, on the three-dimensional microstructure formation, and on avalanche statistics.

Effective Lagrangian of the two Higgs doublet model

We consider the two Higgs doublet model extension of the standard model in the limit where all physical scalar particles are very heavy, too heavy, in fact, to be experimentally produced in forthcoming experiments. The symmetry-breaking sector can thus be described by an effective chiral Lagrangian. We obtain the values of the coefficients of the O(p4) operators relevant to the oblique corrections and investigate to what extent some nondecoupling effects may remain at low energies. A comparison with recent CERN LEP data shows that this model is indistinguishable from the standard model with one doublet and with a heavy Higgs boson, unless the scalar mass splittings are large.

Two point deterministic model for acquisition of in vitro pollen grain androgenetic capacity based on wheat studies

This article discusses, from the standpoint of cellular biology, the deterministic and indeterministic androgenesis theories. The role of the vacuole and of various types of stresses on deviation of the microspore from normal development and the point where androgenetic competence is acquired are examined. Based on extensive literature review and data on wheat studies from our laboratory, a model for androgenetic capacity of pollen grain is proposed. A two point deterministic model for in vitro androgenesis is our proposal for acquisition of androgenetic potential of the pollen grain: the first switch point would be early meiosis and the second switch point the uninucleate pollen stage, because the elimination of cytoplasmatic sporophytic determinants takes place at those two strategic moments. Any abnormality in this process allowing the maintenance of sporophytic informational molecules results in the absence of establishment of a gametophytic program, allowing the reactivation of the embryogenic process

Random-field Potts model with dipolarlike interactions: Hysteresis avalanches and microstructure

A model for the study of hysteresis and avalanches in a first-order phase transition from a single variant phase to a multivariant phase is presented. The model is based on a modification of the random-field Potts model with metastable dynamics by adding a dipolar interaction term truncated at nearest neighbors. We focus our study on hysteresis loop properties, on the three-dimensional microstructure formation, and on avalanche statistics.

A Two-level Prediction Model for Deep Reactive Ion Etch (DRIE)

We contribute a quantitative and systematic model to capture etch non-uniformity in deep reactive ion etch of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) devices. Deep reactive ion etch is commonly used in MEMS fabrication where high-aspect ratio features are to be produced in silicon. It is typical for many supposedly identical devices, perhaps of diameter 10 mm, to be etched simultaneously into one silicon wafer of diameter 150 mm. Etch non-uniformity depends on uneven distributions of ion and neutral species at the wafer level, and on local consumption of those species at the device, or die, level. An ion–neutral synergism model is constructed from data obtained from etching several layouts of differing pattern opening densities. Such a model is used to predict wafer-level variation with an r.m.s. error below 3%. This model is combined with a die-level model, which we have reported previously, on a MEMS layout. The two-level model is shown to enable prediction of both within-die and wafer-scale etch rate variation for arbitrary wafer loadings.