MODEL COUNTRIES IN POLITICAL ANALYSIS. Is Turkey a Model for State-Building in the Arab World? Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 10/2014

This study analyzes the Turkish case as a model country for the state-building processes in the Arab world in the aftermath of the Arab revolts that took place in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. To this end, it deals with the Turkish case in three phases: the founding of the Turkish Republic, political developments until 2002, and the post-2002 Justice and Development Party period. The study focuses on state-society relations manifested in the form of a secular-religious cleavage intertwined with problematic civil-military relations. Each phase of Turkey’s history is compared to cleavages and civil-military relations in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. After analyzing the constitution-making processes in the latter three countries following the Arab revolts, the study concludes by discussing the viability of the Turkish model in the light of Turkey’s search for a new constitution.

The sultans of swing: Turkey's stance on integration with the European Union. OSW Point of View Number 37, November 2013

Despite a rise in anti-EU rhetoric and a growing assertiveness in Ankara’s relations with Brussels, Turkey will continue to seek closer integration with the European Union in the coming years. The current stalemate in the accession process has been a source of irritation to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government. Nonetheless, a complete collapse of accession talks would be a much worse scenario for the ruling AKP party. Currently, the government is primarily interested in keeping the negotiation process alive, rather than hoping to gain full membership any time soon. Erdoğan’s government will likely seek to continue the accession talks because the AKP is acutely aware of their importance for the country’s domestic politics, for its the economy, and – although to a lesser extent – for Turkey’s international standing. The opportunity to capitalise on this process will encourage the Turkish government to avoid crises in its relations with the EU, or to at least mitigate the impact of any potential diplomatic fallouts.

Turkey and the EU: A play in search of a script. EuropEos Commentary No. 5, 28 September 2010

This Commentary warns that by continuing to act as if Turkey’s membership of the EU was still a credible prospect, the EU is dodging the critical issue of how to establish friendly and constructive relations with an independent, self-confident Turkey. More importantly, this approach prevents the EU from at last accepting that enlargement is not the only – nor necessarily the best – policy option available to deal effectively with a strategically important country on its borders.

EU-Turkey plan for handling refugees is fraught with legal and procedural challenges. CEPS Commentary, 10 March 2016

EU-Turkey relations in the scope of the ongoing refugee crisis were at the heart of the European Council meeting of 7 March 2016. Among the set of initiatives proposed, the following two have attracted the most attention: First, for every Syrian readmitted by Turkey from the Greek islands, another Syrian from Turkey would be resettled in an EU member state. This has come to be known as the ‘one for one’ resettlement approach. Second, all new irregular migrants and asylum-seekers crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands would be returned to Turkey without offering any guarantee of protection.

A constitution for Erdoğan. Consequences of the political conflict in Turkey. OSW COMMENTARY No. 213, 2016-06-01

Since mid-2015 Turkey has been affected by a deep internal crisis, caused by rising political polarisation, increased levels of terrorist threat (posed by the Kurds and Islamic radicals) and the revived conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). As a consequence of this crisis, over 350,000 residents of south-eastern Turkey have been forced to leave their homes. At the same time, due to the migration crisis and despite mutual distrust in relations between Turkey and the EU, cooperation between Ankara and Brussels has been intensifying. Turkey’s ongoing destabilisation does not challenge the status of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is de facto controlled by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; paradoxically, it strengthens the party. The internal crisis which the authorities have been deliberately fuelling is an element of a plan to rubber-stamp political change by introducing a presidential system of government. This is happening amid a thorough reconstruction of the socio-political order which has been underway for over a decade. In the upcoming months it is expected to result in the constitution being changed and, as a consequence, the institutionalisation of Erdoğan’s autocratic rule.

Investigating Turkey's national innovation and learning system

The national systems of innovation (NIS) approach focuses on the patterns and the determinants of innovation processes from the perspective of nation-states. This paper reports on continuing work on the application of an NIS model to the development of technological capability in Turkey. Initial assessment of the literature shows that there are a number of alternative conceptualisations of NIS. An attempt by the Government to identify a NIS for Turkey shows the main actors in the system but does not pay sufficient attention to the processes of interactions between agents within the system. An operational model should be capable of representing these processes and interactions and assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the NIS. For industrialising countries, it is also necessary to incorporate learning mechanisms into the model. Further, there are different levels of innovation and capability in different sectors which the national perspective may not reflect. This paper is arranged into three sections. The first briefly explains the basics of the national innovation and learning system. Although there is no single accepted definition of NIS, alternative definitions reviewed share some common characteristics. In the second section, an NIS model is applied to Turkey in order to identify the elements, which characterise the country’s NIS. This section explains knowledge flow and defines the relations between the actors within the system. The final section draws on the “from imitation to innovation” model apparently so successful in East Asia and assesses its applicability to Turkey. In assessing Turkey’s NIS, the focus is on the automotive and textile sectors.

A Török Köztársaság az átalakuló Közel-Keleten = The Republic of Turkey in the changing Middle East

A 2011–2012-ben zajlott, „arab tavasznak” nevezett események új korszak kezdetét jelezték a Közel-Keleten, mely a hidegháború vége óta, de különösen a 2003-as iraki háború következtében amúgy is mélyreható átalakulási folyamaton megy keresztül. Ennek során a térség három nem arab állama, Izrael, Irán és Törökország vált a régió hatalmi egyensúlyának meghatározó erőközpontjává, miközben az arab országok – amúgy sem homogén – csoportja a háttérbe szorult. A korábban mértékadó arab államok (Egyiptom, Irak, Szíria) különböző okok miatt elveszítették vonzerejüket a többiek számára, miközben Szaúd-Arábia sem vállalta a vezető szerepét. Az „arab tavasz” során egymástól egyre nyilvánvalóbban független nemzetállammá vált arab országok mind kevesebb kérdésben hajlandók közös álláspontot képviselni a nemzetközi fórumokon. Az átalakuló közel-keleti regionális rendben azonban az államok viszonylagos hatalmi egyensúlyában bekövetkezett változások miatt a térség helyzetét meghatározó szereplők száma megnövekedett, hiszen legalább Egyiptommal és Szaúd-Arábiával ismét mint politikai központtal kell számolni. A jelen tanulmány az e regionális rendben sokak szerint neooszmán hegemón törekvésekkel fellépő Törökország helyét és szerepét vizsgálja.

The Syrian refugee crisis reconsidered: The role of the EU-Turkey Agreement

The aim of the article is to analyse the roots of the current refugee crisis in Syria. The author argues that the most effective way to solve the crisis can only be to re-establish order and stability in Syria and Iraq. However, even with the most recent international attempts to bring the different Syrian actors to engage in proximity talks, re-establishing order in Syria will not be possible in the short term for the international community. Therefore more attention is needed to address the refugee crisis in the neighbouring countries. Due to its geographical location Turkey is the most important host and transit country for Syrian and other migrants. Turkey lacks the appropriate legal system and infrastructure to handle the situation. The author argues that the international community must make a greater effort to provide the refugees with basic necessities. The EU-Turkey agreement is an important step forward, but it lacks a truly comprehensive approach to solve the crisis. Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria further complicates the challenge arising from the Syrian crisis.

Turkey and neo-Ottomanism: Domestic sources, dynamics and foreign policy

This study examined the relationship between the Turkish Islamic movements and the present government of the Justice and Development Party ( Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, AK Party). Since the AK Party came to power in 2002 it implemented unparalleled political reforms and pursued to improve Turkey’s relations with the EU. Opponents argued that because of the dominance of the secular military in Turkish politics, the AK Party is forced to secretly advance its Islamic agenda using the language and symbolism of democracy and human rights. This study argued that the ideas of the AK Party show similarities with the “Ottomanist” thought of the late Ottoman era. With special reference to the preservation of the Ottoman State, Ottomanism in an eclectic way was able to incorporate Islamic principles like freedom, justice and consultation into the political arena which was increasingly dominated by the secular European concepts. Literature on Islam and politics in Turkey, however, disregards the Ottoman roots of freedom and pluralism and tends to reduce the relationship between religion and state into exclusively confrontational struggles. This conceptualization of the political process relies on particular non-Turkish Muslim experiences which do not necessarily represent Islam’s venture in Turkey. Contrary to the prevailing scholarship, Islamic movements in Turkey, namely, Naqshbandi, National View and Nur, which are discussed in detail in this study, are not monolithic. They all uphold the same creedal tenets of Islam but they have sharp differences in terms of how they conceptualize the role of religious agency in politics. I argue that this diversity is a result of three distinct methodologies of Islamic religious life which are the Tariqah (Tarikat ), Shariah (Şeriat), and Haqiqah ( Hakikat). The differences between these three approaches represent a typological hierarchy in the formation of the Muslim/believer as an agent of Islamic identity. Through these different if not conflicting modes, the AK Party reconnected itself with Turkey’s Ottoman heritage in a post-Ottoman, secular setting and was able to develop an eclectic political identity of Neo-Ottomanism that is evident in the flexibility if not inconsistency of its domestic and foreign policy preferences.

Turkish-American relations in the post-Cold War era, 1990-2005

This study examines the contours of Turkish-American foreign relations in the post-Cold War era from 1990 to 2005. While providing an interpretive analysis, the study highlights elements of continuity and change and of convergence and divergence in the relationship between Ankara and Washington. Turkey’s encounter with its Kurdish problem at home intertwined with the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish authority in northern Iraq after the Gulf War that left a political vacuum in the region. The main argument of this dissertation is that the Kurdish question has been the central element in shaping and redefining the nature and scope of Turkish-American relations since 1991. This study finds that systemic factors primarily prevail in the early years of the post-Cold War Turkish-American relations, as had been the case during the Cold War era. However, the Turkish parliament’s rejection of the deployment of the U.S. troops in Turkey for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 could not be explained by the primacy of distribution of capabilities in the system. Instead, the role of identity, ideology, norms, and the socialization of agency through interaction and language must be considered. The Justice and Development Party’s ascension to power in 2002 magnified a wider transformation in domestic and foreign politics and reflected changes in Turkey’s own self-perception and the definition of its core interests towards the United States.

European integration and democratic consolidation: Spain, Poland and Turkey in comparative perspective

The study explored when, under what conditions, and to what extent did European integration, particularly the European Union’s requirement for democratic conditionality, contribute to democratic consolidation in Spain, Poland, and Turkey? On the basis of a four-part definition, the dissertation examined the democratizing impact of European integration process on each of the following four components of consolidation: (i) holding of fair, free and competitive elections, (ii) protection of fundamental rights, including human and minority rights, (iii) high prospects of regime survival and civilian control of the military, and (iv) legitimacy, elite consensus, and stateness. To assess the relative significance of EU’s democratizing leverage, the thesis also examined domestic and non-EU international dynamics of democratic consolidation in the three countries. By employing two qualitative methods (case study and process-tracing), the study focused on three specific time frames: 1977–1986 for Spain, 1994–2004 for Poland, and 1999–present for Turkey. In addition to official documents, newspapers, and secondary sources, face-to-face interviews made with politicians, academics, experts, bureaucrats, and journalists in the three countries were utilized. The thesis generated several conclusions. First of all, the EU’s democratizing impact is not uniform across different components of democratic consolidation. Moreover, the EU’s democratizing leverage in Spain, Poland, and Turkey involved variations over time for three major reasons: (i) the changing nature of EU’s democratic conditionality over time (ii) varying levels of the EU’s credible commitment to the candidate country’s prospect for membership, and (iii) domestic dynamics in the candidate countries. Furthermore, the European integration process favors democratic consolidation but its magnitude is shaped by the candidate country’s prospect for EU membership and domestic factors in the candidate country. Finally, the study involves a major policy implication for the European Union: unless the EU provides a clear prospect for membership, its democratizing leverage will be limited in the candidate countries.

Identity and Conflict: PKK vs. Turkey (1984-Present)

This paper offers a causal analysis of the conflict between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Turkey that has been ongoing since 1984. The history of Kurdish politics in Turkey is investigated in order to uncover the conflict’s causes. The conflict’s origins in the Turkish state’s refusal to recognize Kurdish identity and its forced attempts to assimilate Kurds into Turkish society are examined. Other causal factors such as the political turmoil of the decades prior to the conflict’s initiation, the involvement of the student youth in politics, the rise of the PKK, and the interrelationships between the causal factors are also analyzed. Further discussion on the conflict’s influence on sociopolitical and interstate motivations and how the causes of this conflict compare with other conflicts is provided.

Democracy promotion and Turkey

The dissertation documented the degree of Turkey's involvement in the promotion of democracy in the Arab Middle East (ME). Initially, I investigated why and under what conditions Turkey promotes democracy in the ME, and then I explained strategies through which Turkey promotes democracy in the region. I applied the neo-classical realist theoretical framework and a mixed methodology in the research, and I provided evidence from two sources: face-to-face interviews with the Turkish and foreign officials and common citizens, and the statistical data from institutions, such as the OECD, Turkish Statistical Institute, and World Bank.^ My research indicates that Turkey promotes democracy through seven channels. These channels are official development assistance (ODA), mentoring, demonstrative effect, normative pressure, conditionality, military power, enlargement, and civil society organizations. Turkey promotes democracy in the ME for three substantial reasons: first, to advance its security and economic interests; second, to improve the political, social, and economic conditions of people living in the region; and third, to create long-term regional stability, crucial for cooperation in economic and security realms.^ I attempted to engage in debates with two distinct, but interrelated fields of comparative politics and international relations. My most important contribution to the field is that I documented Turkey's case of democracy promotion regarding the degree of Turkey's involvement in this endeavor, its strategies, specificities, and effectiveness in the region. I also contribute to the field as I explained the difference between democracy promotion policies of a regional power, such as Turkey, and global powers, such as the US. I further engaged in discussions that illuminate some aspects of the interplay between the identity and strategic interests in states' foreign policy decisions.^

Turkey and Neo-Ottomanism: Domestic Sources, Dynamics and Foreign Policy

This study examined the relationship between the Turkish Islamic movements and the present government of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi, AK Party). Since the AK Party came to power in 2002 it implemented unparalleled political reforms and pursued to improve Turkey’s relations with the EU. Opponents argued that because of the dominance of the secular military in Turkish politics, the AK Party is forced to secretly advance its Islamic agenda using the language and symbolism of democracy and human rights. This study argued that the ideas of the AK Party show similarities with the “Ottomanist” thought of the late Ottoman era. With special reference to the preservation of the Ottoman State, Ottomanism in an eclectic way was able to incorporate Islamic principles like freedom, justice and consultation into the political arena which was increasingly dominated by the secular European concepts. Literature on Islam and politics in Turkey, however, disregards the Ottoman roots of freedom and pluralism and tends to reduce the relationship between religion and state into exclusively confrontational struggles. This conceptualization of the political process relies on particular non-Turkish Muslim experiences which do not necessarily represent Islam’s venture in Turkey. Contrary to the prevailing scholarship, Islamic movements in Turkey, namely, Naqshbandi, National View and Nur, which are discussed in detail in this study, are not monolithic. They all uphold the same creedal tenets of Islam but they have sharp differences in terms of how they conceptualize the role of religious agency in politics. I argue that this diversity is a result of three distinct methodologies of Islamic religious life which are the Tariqah (Tarikat), Shariah (Şeriat), and Haqiqah (Hakikat). The differences between these three approaches represent a typological hierarchy in the formation of the Muslim/believer as an agent of Islamic identity. Through these different if not conflicting modes, the AK Party reconnected itself with Turkey’s Ottoman heritage in a post-Ottoman, secular setting and was able to develop an eclectic political identity of Neo-Ottomanism that is evident in the flexibility if not inconsistency of its domestic and foreign policy preferences.

Historical Space Steps of Turkey: It Is High Time to Establish the Turkish Space Agency

This paper discusses the importance of space in today’s space driven world, the current space activities of Turkey, its space organizations with legislation background information and calls for the necessity for the establishment of the Turkish Space Agency (TSA). Firstly, the importance of space is given which is followed by a brief background and current space activities in Turkey. Then, the answers to why Turkey needs a National Space Agency are outlined by stating its expected role and duties. Additionally, the framework for space policy for Turkey is proposed and the findings are compared with other developing regional space actors. Lastly, it is proposed and demonstrated that Turkey is on the right track with its space policy and it is suggested that the establishment of the TSA is critical both for a coherent space policy and progress as well as the successful development of its national space industry, security and international space relations.