Thermal structure and dynamical modeling of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone

In the present work, a detailed analysis of a Mediterranean TLC occurred in January 2014 has been conducted. The author is not aware of other studies regarding this particular event at the publication of this thesis. In order to outline the cyclone evolution, observational data, including weather-stations data, satellite data, radar data and photographic evidence, were collected at first. After having identified the cyclone path and its general features, the GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH NWP models, developed at ISAC-CNR (Bologna), were used to simulate the phenomenon. Particular attention was paid on the Mediterranean phase as well as on the Atlantic phase, since the cyclone showed a well defined precursor up to 3 days before the minimum formation in the Alboran Sea. The Mediterranean phase has been studied using different combinations of GLOBO, BOLAM and MOLOCH models, so as to evaluate the best model chain to simulate this kind of phenomena. The BOLAM and MOLOCH models showed the best performance, by adjusting the path erroneously deviated in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and ECMWF operational models. The analysis of the cyclone thermal phase shown the presence of a deep-warm core structure in many cases, thus confirming the tropical-like nature of the system. Furthermore, the results showed high sensitivity to initial conditions in the whole lifetime of the cyclone, while the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) modification leads only to small changes in the Adriatic phase. The Atlantic phase has been studied using GLOBO and BOLAM model and with the aid of the same methodology already developed. After tracing the precursor, in the form of a low-pressure system, from the American East Coast to Spain, the thermal phase analysis was conducted. The parameters obtained showed evidence of a deep-cold core asymmetric structure during the whole Atlantic phase, while the first contact with the Mediterranean Sea caused a sudden transition to a shallow-warm core structure. The examination of Potential Vorticity (PV) 3-dimensional structure revealed the presence of a PV streamer that individually formed over Greenland and eventually interacted with the low-pressure system over the Spanish coast, favouring the first phase of the cyclone baroclinic intensification. Finally, the development of an automated system that tracks and studies the thermal phase of Mediterranean cyclones has been encouraged. This could lead to the forecast of potential tropical transition, against with a minimum computational investment.

Mechanisms Governing the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is frequently observed during the evolution of intensifying Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Although intensely studied in recent years, the underlying mechanisms of ERC are still poorly understood, and the forecast of ERC remains a great challenge. To advance our understanding of ERC and provide insights in improvement of numerical forecast of ERC, a series of numerical simulations is performed to investigate ERCs in TC-like vortices on a f-plane. The simulated ERCs possess key features similar to those observed in real TCs including the formation of a secondary tangential wind maximum associated with the outer eyewall. The Sawyer-Eliassen equation and tangential momentum budget analyses are performed to diagnose the mechanisms underlying the secondary eyewall formation (SEF) and ERC. Our diagnoses reveal crucial roles of outer rainband heating in governing the formation and development of the secondary tangential wind maximum and demonstrate that the outer rainband convection must reach a critical strength relative to the eyewall before SEF and the subsequent ERC can occur. A positive feedback among low-level convection, acceleration of tangential winds in the boundary layer, and surface evaporation that leads to the development of ERC and a mechanism for the demise of inner eyewall that involves interaction between the transverse circulations induced by eyewall and outer rainband convection are proposed. The tangential momentum budget indicates that the net tendency of tangential wind is a small residual resultant from a large cancellation between tendencies induced by the resolved and sub-grid scale (SGS) processes. The large SGS contribution to the tangential wind budget explains different characteristics of ERC shown in previous numerical studies and poses a great challenge for a timely correct forecast of ERC. The sensitivity experiments show that ERCs are strongly subjected to model physics, vortex radial structure and background wind. The impact of model physics on ERC can be well understood with the interaction among eyewall/outer rainband heating, radilal inflow in the boundary layer, surface layer turbulent processes, and shallow convection in the moat. However, further investigations are needed to fully understand the exhibited sensitivities of ERC to vortex radial structure and background wind.

Tropical cyclones as a critical phenomenon

It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm occurs. This means that no characteristic scale exists for the energy of tropical cyclones, except for the finite-size effects induced by the boundaries of the basins. This has important implications for the physics of tropical cyclones. We discuss up to what point tropical cyclones are related to critical phenomena (in the same way as earthquakes, rainfall, etc.), providing a consistent picture of the energy balance in the system. Moreover, this perspective allows one to visualize more clearly the effects of global warming on tropical-cyclone occurrence.

Environmental Influences on the Frequency and Intensity of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones genesis, movement and intensification are highly dependent on its environment both oceanic and atmospheric. This thesis has made a detailed study on the environmental factors related to tropical cyclones of North Indian Ocean basin. This ocean basin has produced only 6% of the global tropical cyclones annually but it has caused maximum loss of human life associated with the strong winds, heavy rain and particularly storm surges that accompany severe cyclones as they strike the heavily populated coastal areas. Atmospheric factors studied in the thesis are the moisture content of the atmosphere, instability of the atmosphere that produces thunderstorms which are the main source of energy for the tropical cyclone, vertical wind shear to which cyclones are highly sensitive and the Sub-Tropical westerly Jetsteram and its Asian high speed center. The oceanic parameters studied are sea surface temperature and heat storage in the top layer of the ocean. A major portion of the thesis has dealt with the three temporal variabilities of tropical cyclone frequency namely intra-seasonal (mainly the influence of Madden Julian Oscillation), inter- annual (the relation with El Nino Southern Oscillation) and decadal variabilities. Regarding decadal variability, a prominent four decade oscillation in the frequency of both tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions unique to the Indian Ocean basin has been brought out. The thesis consists of 9 chapters.

Variations of surface boundary layer parameters associated with Cyclone Gonu over the Arabian Sea using QuikSCAT data

This study attempted to quantify the variations of the surface marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) parameters associated with the tropical Cyclone Gonu formed over the Arabian Sea during 30 May–7 June 2007 (just after the monsoon onset). These characteristics were evaluated in terms of surface wind, drag coefficient, wind stress, horizontal divergence, and frictional velocity using 0.5◦ × 0.5◦ resolution Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The variation of these different surface boundary layer parameters was studied for three defined cyclone life stages: prior to the formation, during, and after the cyclone passage. Drastic variations of the MABL parameters during the passage of the cyclone were observed. The wind strength increased from 12 to 22 m s−1 in association with different stages of Gonu. Frictional velocity increased from a value of 0.1–0.6 m s−1 during the formative stage of the system to a high value of 0.3–1.4 m s−1 during the mature stage. Drag coefficient varied from 1.5 × 10−3 to 2.5 × 10−3 during the occurrence of Gonu. Wind stress values varied from 0.4 to 1.1 N m−2. Wind stress curl values varied from 10 × 10−7 to 45 × 10−7 N m−3. Generally, convergent winds prevailed with the numerical value of divergence varying from 0 to –4 × 10−5 s−1. Maximum variations of the wind parameters were found in the wall cloud region of the cyclone. The parameters returned to normally observed values in 1–3 days after the cyclone passage

West African storm tracks and their relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclones

The automatic tracking technique used by Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) has been used to identify coherent vorticity structures at 850hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the ECMWF 40-year reanalysis. The presence of two dominant source regions, north and south of 15ºN over West Africa, for storm tracks over the Atlantic was confirmed. Results show that the southern storm track provides most of the storms that reach the main development region where most tropical cyclones develop. There exists marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of the storms leaving the West African coast, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity. There exists considerable year-to-year variability in the number of West African storm tracks, both in numbers over the land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated with these. In contrast, variance of the 2-6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of African Easterly Wave activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with tropical cyclone activity at interannual timescales.

Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Tropical Cyclones in a hieararchy of climate models of increasing resolution

Tropical Cyclone (TC) is normally not studied at the individual level with Global Climate Models (GCMs), because the coarse grid spacing is often deemed insufficient for a realistic representation of the basic underlying processes. GCMs are indeed routinely deployed at low resolution, in order to enable sufficiently long integrations, which means that only large-scale TC proxies are diagnosed. A new class of GCMs is emerging, however, which is capable of simulating TC-type vortexes by retaining a horizontal resolution similar to that of operational NWP GCMs; their integration on the latest supercomputers enables the completion of long-term integrations. The UK-Japan Climate Collaboration and the UK-HiGEM projects have developed climate GCMs which can be run routinely for decades (with grid spacing of 60 km) or centuries (with grid spacing of 90 km); when coupled to the ocean GCM, a mesh of 1/3 degrees provides eddy-permitting resolution. The 90 km resolution model has been developed entirely by the UK-HiGEM consortium (together with its 1/3 degree ocean component); the 60 km atmospheric GCM has been developed by UJCC, in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

Prediction of a typhoon using a fine-mesh NWP model

The ECMWF operational grid point model (with a resolution of 1.875° of latitude and longitude) and its limited area version (with a resolution of !0.47° of latitude and longitude) with boundary values from the global model have been used to study the simulation of the typhoon Tip. The fine-mesh model was capable of simulating the main structural features of the typhoon and predicting a fall in central pressure of 60 mb in 3 days. The structure of the forecast typhoon, with a warm core (maximum potential temperature anomaly 17 K). intense swirling wind (maximum 55 m s-1 at 850 mb) and spiralling precipitation patterns is characteristic of a tropical cyclone. Comparison with the lower resolution forecast shows that the horizontal resolution is a determining factor in predicting not only the structure and intensity but even the movement of these vortices. However, an accurate and refined initial analysis is considered to be a prerequisite for a correct forecast of this phenomenon.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes

While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.

SIMULATION OF USE AND MANAGEMENT EFFECTS ON THE SOIL ORGANIC MATTER POOLS OF THE ATLANTIC FOREST BIOME, BRAZIL

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Development of test-based wind-driven rain intrusion model for hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage

Major portion of hurricane-induced economic loss originates from damages to building structures. The damages on building structures are typically grouped into three main categories: exterior, interior, and contents damage. Although the latter two types of damages, in most cases, cause more than 50% of the total loss, little has been done to investigate the physical damage process and unveil the interdependence of interior damage parameters. Building interior and contents damages are mainly due to wind-driven rain (WDR) intrusion through building envelope defects, breaches, and other functional openings. The limitation of research works and subsequent knowledge gaps, are in most part due to the complexity of damage phenomena during hurricanes and lack of established measurement methodologies to quantify rainwater intrusion. This dissertation focuses on devising methodologies for large-scale experimental simulation of tropical cyclone WDR and measurements of rainwater intrusion to acquire benchmark test-based data for the development of hurricane-induced building interior and contents damage model. Target WDR parameters derived from tropical cyclone rainfall data were used to simulate the WDR characteristics at the Wall of Wind (WOW) facility. The proposed WDR simulation methodology presents detailed procedures for selection of type and number of nozzles formulated based on tropical cyclone WDR study. The simulated WDR was later used to experimentally investigate the mechanisms of rainwater deposition/intrusion in buildings. Test-based dataset of two rainwater intrusion parameters that quantify the distribution of direct impinging raindrops and surface runoff rainwater over building surface — rain admittance factor (RAF) and surface runoff coefficient (SRC), respectively —were developed using common shapes of low-rise buildings. The dataset was applied to a newly formulated WDR estimation model to predict the volume of rainwater ingress through envelope openings such as wall and roof deck breaches and window sill cracks. The validation of the new model using experimental data indicated reasonable estimation of rainwater ingress through envelope defects and breaches during tropical cyclones. The WDR estimation model and experimental dataset of WDR parameters developed in this dissertation work can be used to enhance the prediction capabilities of existing interior damage models such as the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM).^

THE IMPACT OF UPPER-LEVEL PROCESSES ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES OF HURRICANE SANDY (2012)

The first part of this study examines the relative roles of frontogenesis and tropopause undulation in determining the intensity and structural changes of Hurricane Sandy (2012) using a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. A 138-h simulation reproduces Sandy’s four distinct development stages: (i) rapid intensification, (ii) weakening, (iii) steady maximum surface wind but with large continued sea-level pressure (SLP) falls, and (iv) re-intensification. Results show typical correlations between intensity changes, sea-surface temperature and vertical wind shear during the first two stages. The large SLP falls during the last two stages are mostly caused by Sandy’s moving northward into lower-tropopause regions associated with an eastward-propagating midlatitude trough, where the associated lower-stratospheric warm air wraps into the storm and its surrounding areas. The steady maximum surface wind occurs because of the widespread SLP falls with weak pressure gradients lacking significant inward advection of absolute angular momentum (AAM). Meanwhile, there is a continuous frontogenesis in the outer region during the last three stages. Cyclonic inward advection of AAM along each frontal rainband accounts for the continued expansion of the tropical-storm-force wind and structural changes, while deep convection in the eyewall and merging of the final two survived frontal rainbands generate a spiraling jet in Sandy’s northwestern quadrant, leading to its re-intensification prior to landfall. The physical, kinematic and dynamic aspects of an upper-level outflow layer and its possible impact on the re-intensification of Sandy are examined in the second part of this study. Above the outflow layer isentropes are tilted downward with radius as a result of the development of deep convection and an approaching upper-level trough, causing weak subsidence. Its maximum outward radial velocity is located above the cloud top, so the outflow channel experiences cloud-induced long-wave cooling. Because Sandy has two distinct convective regions (an eyewall and a frontal rainband), it has multiple outflow layers, with the eyewall’s outflow layer located above that of the frontal rainband. During the re-intensification stage, the eyewall’s outflow layer interacts with a jet stream ahead of the upper-level trough axis. Because of the presence of inertial instability on the anticyclonic side of the jet stream and symmetric instability in the inner region of the outflow layer, Sandy’s secondary circulation intensifies. Its re-intensification ceases when these instabilities disappear. The relationship between the intensity of the secondary circulation and dynamic instabilities of the outflow layer suggests that the re-intensification occurs in response to these instabilities. Additionally, it is verified that the long-wave cooling in the outflow layer helps induce symmetric instability by reducing static stability.