975 resultados para Trajectory analysis


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Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1930s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high A OD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The warm conveyor belt (WCB) of an extratropical cyclone generally splits into two branches. One branch (WCB1) turns anticyclonically into the downstream upper-level tropospheric ridge, while the second branch (WCB2) wraps cyclonically around the cyclone centre. Here, the WCB split in a typical North Atlantic cold-season cyclone is analysed using two numerical models: the Met Office Unified Model and the COSMO model. The WCB flow is defined using off-line trajectory analysis. The two models represent the WCB split consistently. The split occurs early in the evolution of the WCB with WCB1 experiencing maximum ascent at lower latitudes and with higher moisture content than WCB2. WCB1 ascends abruptly along the cold front where the resolved ascent rates are greatest and there is also line convection. In contrast, WCB2 remains at lower levels for longer before undergoing saturated large-scale ascent over the system's warm front. The greater moisture in WCB1 inflow results in greater net potential temperature change from latent heat release, which determines the final isentropic level of each branch. WCB1 also exhibits lower outflow potential vorticity values than WCB2. Complementary diagnostics in the two models are utilised to study the influence of individual diabatic processes on the WCB. Total diabatic heating rates along the WCB branches are comparable in the two models with microphysical processes in the large-scale cloud schemes being the major contributor to this heating. However, the different convective parameterisation schemes used by the models cause significantly different contributions to the total heating. These results have implications for studies on the influence of the WCB outflow in Rossby wave evolution and breaking. Key aspects are the net potential temperature change and the isentropic level of the outflow which together will influence the relative mass going into each WCB branch and the associated negative PV anomalies at the tropopause-level flow.

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Previously unknown foehn jets have been identified to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. These jets have major implications for the east coast of the AP, a region of rapid climatic warming and where two large sections of ice shelf have collapsed in recent years. During three foehn events across the AP, leeside warming and drying is seen in new aircraft observations and simulated well by the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) at ∼1.5 km grid spacing. In case A, weak southwesterly flow and an elevated upwind inversion characterise a highly nonlinear flow regime with upwind flow blocking. In case C strong northwesterly winds characterise a relatively linear case with little upwind flow blocking. Case B resides somewhere between the two in flow regime linearity. The foehn jets – apparent in aircraft observations where available and MetUM simulations of all three cases – are mesoscale features (up to 60 km in width) originating from the mouths of leeside inlets. Through back trajectory analysis they are identified as a type of gap flow. In cases A and B the jets are distinct, being strongly accelerated relative to the background flow, and confined to low levels above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. They resemble the ‘shallow foehn’ of the Alps. Case C resembles a case of ‘deep foehn’, with the jets less distinct. The foehn jets are considerably cooler and moister relative to adjacent regions of calmer foehn air. This is due to a dampened foehn effect in the jet regions: in case A the jets have lower upwind source regions, and in the more linear case C there is less diabatic warming and precipitation along jet trajectories due to the reduced orographic uplift across the mountain passes.

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The Clouds, Aerosol, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) deployment at Graciosa Island in the Azores generated a 21-month (April 2009–December 2010) comprehensive dataset documenting clouds, aerosols, and precipitation using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF). The scientific aim of the deployment is to gain improved understanding of the interactions of clouds, aerosols, and precipitation in the marine boundary layer. Graciosa Island straddles the boundary between the subtropics and midlatitudes in the northeast Atlantic Ocean and consequently experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloudiness conditions. Low clouds are the dominant cloud type, with stratocumulus and cumulus occurring regularly. Approximately half of all clouds contained precipitation detectable as radar echoes below the cloud base. Radar and satellite observations show that clouds with tops from 1 to 11 km contribute more or less equally to surface-measured precipitation at Graciosa. A wide range of aerosol conditions was sampled during the deployment consistent with the diversity of sources as indicated by back-trajectory analysis. Preliminary findings suggest important two-way interactions between aerosols and clouds at Graciosa, with aerosols affecting light precipitation and cloud radiative properties while being controlled in part by precipitation scavenging. The data from Graciosa are being compared with short-range forecasts made with a variety of models. A pilot analysis with two climate and two weather forecast models shows that they reproduce the observed time-varying vertical structure of lower-tropospheric cloud fairly well but the cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations less well. The Graciosa site has been chosen to be a permanent fixed ARM site that became operational in October 2013.

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Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

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During the TROCCINOX field experiment in January and February 2005, the contribution of lightning-induced nitrogen oxides (LNOx) from tropical and subtropical thunderstorms in Southern Brazil was investigated. Airborne trace gas measurements (NO, NOy, CO and O-3) were performed up to 12.5 km with the German research aircraft Falcon. During anvil penetrations in selected tropical and subtropical thunderstorms of 4 and 18 February, NOx mixing ratios were on average enhanced by 0.7-1.2 and 0.2-0.8 nmol mol(-1) totally, respectively. The relative contributions of boundary layer NOx (BL-NOx) and LNOx to anvil-NOx were derived from the NOx-CO correlations. on average similar to 80-90% of the anvil-NOx was attributed to LNOx. A Lightning Location Network (LINET) was set up to monitor the local distribution of cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC) radiation sources (here called 'strokes') and compared with lightning data from the operational Brazilian network RINDAT (Rede Integrada Nacional de Deteccao de Descargas Atmosfericas). The horizontal LNOx mass flux out of the anvil was determined from the mean LNOx mixing ratio, the horizontal outflow velocity and the size of the vertical cross-section of the anvil, and related to the number of strokes contributing to LNOx. The values of these parameters were derived from the airborne measurements, from lightning and radar observations, and from a trajectory analysis. The amount of LNOx produced per LINET stroke depending on measured peak current was determined. The results were scaled up with the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flash rate (44 flashes s(-1)) to obtain an estimate of the global LNOx production rate. The final results gave similar to 1 and similar to 2-3 kg(N) per LIS flash based on measurements in three tropical and one subtropical Brazilian thunderstorms, respectively, suggesting that tropical flashes may be less productive than subtropical ones. The equivalent mean annual global LNOx nitrogen mass production rate was estimated to be 1.6 and 3.1 Tg a(-1), respectively. By use of LINET observations in Germany in July 2005, a comparison with the lightning activity in mid-latitude thunderstorms was also performed. In general, the same frequency distribution of stroke peak currents as for tropical thunderstorms over Brazil was found. The different LNOx production rates per stroke in tropical thunderstorms compared with subtropical and mid-latitude thunderstorms seem to be related to the different stroke lengths (inferred from comparison with laboratory data and observed lengths). In comparison, the impact of other lightning parameters as stroke peak current and stroke release height was assessed to be minor. The results from TROCCINOX suggest that the different vertical wind shear may be responsible for the different stroke lengths.

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In special education, high skills designate people who demonstrate the capability, potential or performance in human activities, well above average. Our objective, using neuroscience to understand the early, prodigies, geniuses and high abilities as a result of a unique process of memory formation. It is a literature search, in which the works were identified, located, compiled, analyzed and blacklisted. The material was located from keywords in databases. For the compilation were used as inclusion criteria, adopted the intersection of the keywords as well as the work of researchers from education, psychology and neuroscience, published between 1966 and 2009; qualitatively analyzed 40 references, 18 articles and 22 other texts. The trajectory analysis was developed with the question: no need to explain differently the precocious prodigies, geniuses, and AH? We reached three logical propositions. We demonstrate through this exercise of course, that there would be no need to explain differently the precocious prodigies, geniuses, and AH, but conclude that there is need for such differentiation, even within the field of neuroscience, however, the statement above points to Renzulli’s theory as valid for geniuses and AH, with exceptions for early and wonders that deserve a closer look.

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In the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), located in southeastern Brazil, surface ozone concentrations are often well above the national air quality standards. In this experimental study, we attempted to characterize the vertical profile of atmospheric ozone and transport of the ozone plume in the boundary layer, using data from the first ozone soundings ever taken in the MASP. In 2006, we launched fifteen ozonesondes: eight from 15 to 18 May (dry season); and seven from 30 October to 1 November (wet season). Vertical ozone mixing ratios in the troposphere were approximately 40 ppb, reaching maximum values of approximately 60 ppb during the dry-season campaign and approximately 100 ppb during the wet-season campaign. In the first and second campaigns, the mean tropospheric ozone column abundance was 28.2 and 41.3 DU, respectively, which can be attributed to the considerable variation in the annual temperature cycle over the region. To determine the effect that biomass burning has on ozone concentrations over the MASP, we analyzed wind trajectories and satellite-derived fire counts. We cannot state unequivocally that biomass burning contributed to higher ozone concentrations above the boundary layer during the experimental campaigns. In the boundary layer, ozone concentrations increase with altitude, peaking at the base of the inversion layer, suggesting that local emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides play a significant role in the lower troposphere over MASP, influencing ozone formation not only at the surface but also vertically in the atmosphere and in distant regions. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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[EN]Low cost real-time depth cameras offer new sensors for a wide field of applications apart from the gaming world. Other active research scenarios as for example surveillance, can take ad- vantage of the capabilities offered by this kind of sensors that integrate depth and visual information. In this paper, we present a system that operates in a novel application context for these devices, in troublesome scenarios where illumination conditions can suffer sudden changes. We focus on the people counting problem with re-identification and trajectory analysis.

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Within this doctoral thesis, biogenic emissions of several globally relevant halocarbons (methyl chloride, methyl bromide, methyl iodide, dibromomethane, chloroform and bromoform) have been investigated in different environments. An airborne study was focused on the tropical rainforest ecosystem, while shipborne measurements investigated naturally occurring oceanic plankton blooms. Laboratory experiments using dried plant material were made to elucidate abiotic production mechanisms occurring in organic matter. Airborne measurements over the tropical rainforest of Suriname and French Guyana (3 - 6 °N, 51 - 59 °W) revealed net fluxes of 9.5 (± 3.8 2σ) µg m-2 h-1 methyl chloride and 0.35 (± 0.15 2σ) µg m-2 h-1 chloroform emitted in the long dry season (October) 2005. An extrapolation of these numbers to all tropical forests helped to narrow down the range of the recently discovered and poorly quantified methyl chloride source from tropical ecosystems. The value for methyl chloride obtained (1.5 (± 0.6 2σ) Tg yr-1) affirms that the contribution of the tropical forest ecosystem is the major source in the global budget of methyl chloride. The extrapolated global net chloroform flux from tropical forests (56 (± 23 2σ) Gg yr-1) is of minor importance (5 - 10 %) compared to the global sources. A source of methyl bromide from this region could not be verified. The abiotic formation of methyl chloride and methyl bromide from dead plant material was tested in a laboratory study. The release from plant tissue representative of grassland, deciduous forest, agricultural areas and coastal salt marshes (hay, ash, tomato and saltwort) has been monitored. Incubations at different temperatures (25 - 50 °C) revealed significant emissions even at ambient temperature, and that the emissions increased exponentially with temperature. The strength of the emission was found to be additionally dependent on the availability of halide and the methoxyl group within the plant tissue. However, high water content in the plant material was found to inhibit methyl halide emissions. The abiotic nature of the reaction yielding methyl halides was confirmed by its high activation energy calculated via Arrhenius plots. Shipborne measurements of the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloride, methyl bromide, methyl iodide, dibromomethane and bromoform have been conducted along a South Atlantic transect from the 27.01. - 05.02.2007 to characterize halocarbon emissions from a large-scale natural algae bloom encountered off the coast of Argentina. Mixing ratios of methyl chloride and methyl bromide were not significantly affected by the occurrence of the phytoplankton bloom. Emissions of methyl iodide, dibromomethane and bromoform showed pronounced mixing ratio variations, triggered by phytoplankton abundance. Methyl iodide was strongly correlated with dimethyl sulfide throughout the sampled region. A new technique combining satellite derived biomass marker (chlorophyll a) data with back trajectory analysis was successfully used to attribute variations in mixing ratios to air masses, which recently passed over areas of enhanced biological production.

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A Mount Everest ice core analyzed at high resolution for major and trace elements (Sr, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Bi, U, Tl, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co) and spanning the period A. D. 1650- 2002 is used to investigate the sources of and variations in atmospheric dust through time. The chemical composition of dust varies seasonally, and peak dust concentrations occur during the winter-spring months. Significant correlations between the Everest dust record and dust observations at stations suggest that the Everest record is representative of regional variations in atmospheric dust loading. Back-trajectory analysis in addition to a significant correlation of Everest dust concentrations and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index indicates that the dominant winter sources of dust are the Arabian Peninsula, Thar Desert, and northern Sahara. Factors that contribute to dust generation at the surface include soil moisture and temperature, and the long-range transport of dust aerosols appears to be sensitive to the strength of 500-mb zonal winds. There are periods of high dust concentration throughout the 350-yr Mount Everest dust record; however, there is an increase in these periods since the early 1800s. The record was examined for recent increases in dust emissions associated with anthropogenic activities, but no recent dust variations can be conclusively attributed to anthropogenic inputs of dust.

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Wollongong, Australia is an urban site at the intersection of anthropogenic, biomass burning, biogenic and marine sources of atmospheric trace gases. The location offers a valuable opportunity to study drivers of atmospheric composition in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, a record of surface carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) was measured with an in situ Fourier transform infrared trace gas analyser between April 2011 and August 2014. Clean air was found to arrive at Wollongong in approximately 10% of air masses. Biomass burning influence was evident in the average annual cycle of clean air CO during austral spring. A significant negative short-term trend was found in clean air CO (-1.5 nmol/mol/a), driven by a reduction in northern Australian biomass burning. Significant short-term positive trends in clean air CH4 (5.4 nmol/mol/a) and CO2 (1.9 ?mol/mol/a) were consistent with the long-term global average trends. Polluted Wollongong air was investigated using wind-direction/wind-speed clustering, which revealed major influence from local urban and industrial sources from the south. High values of CH4, with anthropogenic DCH4/DCO2 enhancement ratio signatures, originated from the northwest, in the direction of local coal mining. A pollution climatology was developed for the region using back trajectory analysis and DO3/DCO enhancement ratios. Ozone production environments in austral spring and summer were associated with anticyclonic meteorology on the east coast of Australia, while ozone depletion environments in autumn and winter were associated with continental transport, or fast moving trajectories from southern latitudes. This implies the need to consider meteorological conditions when developing policies for controlling air quality.

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Cloud samples for the isotopic analysis were collected in the framework of the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 (HCCT-2010) campaign on Schmücke (50° 39'N/ 10° 46'E, 937 m a.s.l.; Germany) in September and October 2010 with a three-stage Caltech Active Strand Cloudwater Collector (CASCC) during 13 different cloud events with a temporal resolution of 1 to 3 hours. In a first step, we ensured that no additional fractionation occurred during sampling with the CASCC. The d values of the three sizes classes of the CASCC (4 µm to 16 µm, 16 µm to 22 µm and >22 µm) did not differ significantly, revealing that the cloud droplets of different sizes quickly equilibrate their delta value with the one of the surrounding vapor. delta values in the cloud droplets varied from -77 per mil to -15 per mil in d2H and from -12.1 per mil to -3.9 per mil in d18O and were fitted by d2H =7.8*d18O +13*10**-3. delta values decreased with temperature as well as towards the end of the campaign, representing a seasonal trend which is known from d values in precipitation. The deuterium excess of the cloud samples was generally higher than the Local Meteoric Water Line of the closest GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) station. Rain decreases its deuterium excess during falling through an unsaturated air column, while the cloud droplets conserve the deuterium excess of the initial evaporation and thus have been found to be a good indicator for the airmass source region: higher deuterium excess was measured for polar air masses and lower deuterium excess for Mediterranean air masses. Changes in d values during one cloud event were up to 3.6 per mil (d2H) and 0.23 per mil (d18O), except for frontal passages, which were associated with increases of ~6 per mil per hour (d2H) and ~0.6 per mil per hour (d18O). Using a box model, we showed that the influence of condensation only was able to explain the variation in the isotope signal of two cloud passages. Consequently, we deduced that the water vapor "feeding" the cloud advected the measured changes. A trajectory analysis and moisture source diagnostic revealed that it is very likely that the variations were either related to rain out along the trajectories or to meteorological changes in the moisture source region. This was the first study using stable water isotopologues in cloud water manifesting their potential in the context of atmospheric water vapor circulation.

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A new influx of sea-rafted pumice reached the eastern coast of Australia in October 2002, approximately 1 year after a felsic, shallow-marine explosive eruption at a previously unknown volcano (0403-091) along the Tofua volcanic arc (Tonga). The eruption produced floating pumice rafts that first became stranded in Fiji in November 2001, approximately I month after the eruption. Strandings of sea-rafted pumice along shorelines have been the only record of products from this submarine explosive eruption at the remote, submerged volcano. Computed drift trajectories of the sea-rafted pumice using numerical models of southwest Pacific surface wind fields and ocean currents indicate two cyclonic systems disturbed the drift of pumice to eastern Australia, as well as the importance of the combined wave and direct wind effect on pumice trajectory. Pumice became stranded along at least two-thirds (>2000 km) of the coastline of eastern Australia, being deposited on beaches during a sustained period of fresh onshore winds. Typical amounts of pumice initially stranded on beaches were 500-4000 individual clasts per in, and a minimum volume estimate of pumice that arrived to eastern Australia is 1.25 x 10(5) m(3). Pumice was beached below maximum tidal/storm surge levels and was quickly reworked back into the ocean, such that the concentration of beached pumice rapidly dissipated within weeks of the initial stranding, and little record of this stranding event now exists. Most stranded pumice clasts ranged in size from 2 to 5 cm in diameter; the largest measured clasts were 10 cm in Australia and 20 cm in Fiji. The pumice has a low phenocryst content (3500 km) and period of pumice floatation (greater than or equal to1 year), confirm the importance of sea-rafted pumice as a long-distance dispersal mechanism for marine organisms including marine pests and harmful invasive species. Billions of individual rafting pumice clasts can be generated in a single small-volume eruption, such as observed here, and the geological implications for the transport of sessile taxa over large distances are significant. An avenue for future research is to examine whether speciation events and volcanicity are linked; the periodic development of globalism for some taxa (e.g., corals, gastropods, bryozoa) may correlate in time and/or space with voluminous silicic igneous events capable of producing >10(6) km(3) of silicic pumice-rich pyroclastic material and emplaced into ocean basins. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.