EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECTORIES OF ULTRACOMPACT "BLACK WIDOW" PULSARS WITH VERY LOW MASS COMPANIONS

The existence of millisecond pulsars with planet-mass companions in close orbits is challenging from the stellar evolution point of view. We calculate in detail the evolution of binary systems self-consistently, including mass transfer, evaporation, and irradiation of the donor by X-ray feedback, demonstrating the existence of a new evolutionary path leading to short periods and compact donors as required by the observations of PSR J1719-1438. We also point out the alternative of an exotic nature of the companion planet-mass star.

Partial reconstruction of the trajectories of a discretely observed branching diffusion with immigration and an application to inference

In this treatise we consider finite systems of branching particles where the particles move independently of each other according to d-dimensional diffusions. Particles are killed at a position dependent rate, leaving at their death position a random number of descendants according to a position dependent reproduction law. In addition particles immigrate at constant rate (one immigrant per immigration time). A process with above properties is called a branching diffusion withimmigration (BDI). In the first part we present the model in detail and discuss the properties of the BDI under our basic assumptions. In the second part we consider the problem of reconstruction of the trajectory of a BDI from discrete observations. We observe positions of the particles at discrete times; in particular we assume that we have no information about the pedigree of the particles. A natural question arises if we want to apply statistical procedures on the discrete observations: How can we find couples of particle positions which belong to the same particle? We give an easy to implement 'reconstruction scheme' which allows us to redraw or 'reconstruct' parts of the trajectory of the BDI with high accuracy. Moreover asymptotically the whole path can be reconstructed. Further we present simulations which show that our partial reconstruction rule is tractable in practice. In the third part we study how the partial reconstruction rule fits into statistical applications. As an extensive example we present a nonparametric estimator for the diffusion coefficient of a BDI where the particles move according to one-dimensional diffusions. This estimator is based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator for the diffusion coefficient of one-dimensional diffusions and it uses the partial reconstruction rule developed in the second part above. We are able to prove a rate of convergence of this estimator and finally we present simulations which show that the estimator works well even if we leave our set of assumptions.

3D bloodstain pattern analysis: ballistic reconstruction of the trajectories of blood drops and determination of the centres of origin of the bloodstains

For crime scene investigation in cases of homicide, the pattern of bloodstains at the incident site is of critical importance. The morphology of the bloodstain pattern serves to determine the approximate blood source locations, the minimum number of blows and the positioning of the victim. In the present work, the benefits of the three-dimensional bloodstain pattern analysis, including the ballistic approximation of the trajectories of the blood drops, will be demonstrated using two illustrative cases. The crime scenes were documented in 3D, using the non-contact methods digital photogrammetry, tachymetry and laser scanning. Accurate, true-to-scale 3D models of the crime scenes, including the bloodstain pattern and the traces, were created. For the determination of the areas of origin of the bloodstain pattern, the trajectories of up to 200 well-defined bloodstains were analysed in CAD and photogrammetry software. The ballistic determination of the trajectories was performed using ballistics software. The advantages of this method are the short preparation time on site, the non-contact measurement of the bloodstains and the high accuracy of the bloodstain analysis. It should be expected that this method delivers accurate results regarding the number and position of the areas of origin of bloodstains, in particular the vertical component is determined more precisely than using conventional methods. In both cases relevant forensic conclusions regarding the course of events were enabled by the ballistic bloodstain pattern analysis.

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

Trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage

While the negative effects of divorce on well-being are well documented in research literature, the large individual differences in psychological adaptation over time are still not well understood. This is especially the case for marital breakup after long-term marriage, which is still a neglected research topic. Against this background, the aim of the present contribution is to shed light on the various trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term relationship. Data stem from a longitudinal survey study, which is part of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research ‘LIVES – Overcoming vulnerability: life course perspectives’ (funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation). Our analyses are based on results of an exploratory latent profile analysis performed at the first assessment in 2012 among 308 divorced participants aged 45 – 65 years, who divorced after an average of 25 years of marriage (Perrig-Chiello, Hutchison, & Morselli, 2014). Five different groups regarding psychological adaptation to marital breakup (i.e. life satisfaction, depression, hopelessness, subjective health, and mourning) were identified. They were composed of two larger groups of individuals that adapted quite well or very well (“average copers”, n=151 and “resilients”, n=90) and of three smaller groups with major difficulties to adjust to the new situation (“vulnerables”, n= 18; “malcontens”, n= 37 and “resigned ones”, n=12). Clusters differed statistically significant regarding personality variables, time since separation, current relationship status, and financial situation. In the present contribution, we want to investigate the course of adaptation of the five classes two years later by using latent transition analysis. Furthermore, we aim to examine which variables in terms of personality, relationship status, variables of the context of the separation and socio-demographic variables are crucial for change or stability in levels of adaptation in the different classes. The evaluation of the trajectories of adaptation to this critical life event and the identification of variables that enhance the adaptation over time is essential for developing more differentiated measures in counselling as well as intervention techniques in clinical and social services.

Trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage

Background: Marital dissolution is known to be among the most stressful life events with long- reaching negative consequences on individuals’ lives. A limitation in research to date is that most studies have focused on the impact of marital disruption on well-being outcomes in younger adults. Furthermore, although population-based studies on divorce document a broad range of negative effects, more fine-grained analyses reveal a large heterogeneity in people’s adjustment, which is still not well understood. Objective: To explore trajectories of psychological adaptation to marital breakup after a long-term marriage, and to examine variables accounting for recovery or chronicity in terms of intrapersonal resources (personality, trait resilience, personal growth), relationship variables (satisfaction with ex- relationship, length of marriage, time since divorce) and socio-demographic variables (age, gender, financial situation). Methods: Latent transition analysis is used to examine the course of psychological adaptation (i.e., depressive symptoms, life satisfaction, hopelessness, mourning and subjective health) to divorce over two years among five profiles of 308 divorcees (mean age: 55.6 years; average duration of former marriage: 23.62 years): Two larger groups of individuals, the one which adapted very well (‘resilients’, 29%), the other quite well (‘average copers’, 49%), and three groups with major difficulties (‘vulnerables’, 6%; ‘malcontents’, 12%; and ‘resigned’, 4%). In a second step the differences among transition patterns were explored on the basis of the distal variables (i.e., intrapersonal resources, relationship variables, socio-demographics). Results: Although the probability of upward changes was higher for those individuals with lower adaptation at time 1, only a small number of individuals made an upward change from the maladapted to the well-adapted groups throughout the two years. The groups of copers and resilients remained stable in their psychological adaption. The most consistent results related to upward changes were intrapersonal resources, namely the NEO personality traits and trait resilience. Conclusion: The majority of individuals divorcing after a long-term marriage adapt successfully over time. Adaptation trajectories depend primarily on intrapersonal resources. However, a minority of divorcees exhibit enduring difficulties. Knowledge about the diversity of these trajectories of vulnerability could be of great help for designing psychological interventions to better tackle this critical life event.

Impact of thermal stress on evolutionary trajectories of pathogen resistance in three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), supplementary material

Background: Pathogens are a major regulatory force for host populations, especially under stressful conditions. Elevated temperatures may enhance the development of pathogens, increase the number of transmission stages, and can negatively influence host susceptibility depending on host thermal tolerance. As a net result, this can lead to a higher prevalence of epidemics during summer months. These conditions also apply to marine ecosystems, where possible ecological impacts and the population-specific potential for evolutionary responses to changing environments and increasing disease prevalence are, however, less known. Therefore, we investigated the influence of thermal stress on the evolutionary trajectories of disease resistance in three marine populations of three-spined sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus by combining the effects of elevated temperature and infection with a bacterial strain of Vibrio sp. using a common garden experiment. Results: We found that thermal stress had an impact on fish weight and especially on survival after infection after only short periods of thermal acclimation. Environmental stress reduced genetic differentiation (QST) between populations by releasing cryptic within-population variation. While life history traits displayed positive genetic correlations across environments with relatively weak genotype by environment interactions (GxE), environmental stress led to negative genetic correlations across environments in pathogen resistance. This reversal of genetic effects governing resistance is probably attributable to changing environment-dependent virulence mechanisms of the pathogen interacting differently with host genotypes, i.e. GPathogenxGHostxE or (GPathogenxE)x(GHostxE) interactions, rather than to pure host genetic effects, i.e. GHostxE interactions. Conclusion: To cope with climatic changes and the associated increase in pathogen virulence, host species require wide thermal tolerances and pathogen-resistant genotypes. The higher resistance we found for some families at elevated temperatures showed that there is evolutionary potential for resistance to Vibrio sp. in both thermal environments. The negative genetic correlation of pathogen resistance between thermal environments, on the other hand, indicates that adaptation to current conditions can be a weak predictor for performance in changing environments. The observed feedback on selective gradients exerted on life history traits may exacerbate this effect, as it can also modify the response to selection for other vital components of fitness.

Adolescent Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms : co-development of Behavioral and Academic Problems

Purpose: Increasing evidence suggests the existence of heterogeneity in the development of depressive symptoms during adolescence, but little remains known regarding the implications of this heterogeneity for the development of commonly co-occurring problems. In this study, we derived trajectories of depressive symptoms in adolescents and examined the codevelopment of multiple behavioral and academic problems in these trajectories. Methods: Participants were 6,910 students from secondary schools primarily located in disadvantaged areas of Quebec (Canada) who were assessed annually from the age 12 to 16 years. Trajectories were identified using growth mixture modeling. The course of behavioral (delinquency, substance use) and academic adjustment (school liking, academic achievement) in trajectories was examined by deriving latent growth curves for each covariate conditional on trajectory membership. Results: We identified five trajectories of stable-low (68.1%), increasing (12.1%), decreasing (8.7%), transient (8.7%), and stable-high (2.4%) depressive symptoms. Examination of conditional latent growth curves revealed that the course of behavioral and academic problems closely mirrored the course of depressive symptoms in each trajectory. Conclusions: This pattern of results suggests that the course of depressive symptoms and other adjustment problems over time is likely to involve an important contribution of shared underlying developmental process(es).

Individual and group level trajectories of behavioural development in Border collies.

In order to assess dogs’ personality changes during ontogeny, a cohort of 69 Border collies was followed up from six to 18–24 months. When the dogs were 6, 12, and 18–24 months old, their owners repeatedly filled in a dog personality questionnaire (DPQ), which yielded five personality factors divided into fifteen facets. All five DPQ factors were highly correlated between the three age classes, indicating that the dogs’ personality remained consistent relative to other individuals. Nonetheless, at the group level significant changes with age were found for four of the five DPQ factors. Fearfulness, Aggression towards People, Responsiveness to Training and Aggression towards Animals increased with age; only Activity/Excitability did not change significantly over time. These changes in DPQ factor scores occurred mainly between the ages of 6 and 12 months, although some facets changed beyond this age. No sex differences were found for any of the tested factors or facets, suggesting that individual variation in personality was greater than male/female differences. There were significant litter effects for the factors Fearfulness, Aggression towards People and Activity/Excitability, indicating either a strong genetic basis for these traits or a high influence of the shared early environment. To conclude, from the age of six months, consistency in personality relative to other individuals can be observed in Border collies. However, at the group level, increases in fearful and aggressive behaviours occur up to 12 months and for some traits up to two years, highlighting the need for early interventions. Follow-up studies are needed to assess trajectories of personality development prior to six months and after two years, and to include a wider variety of breeds.

Adolescent Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms : co-development of Behavioral and Academic Problems

Purpose: Increasing evidence suggests the existence of heterogeneity in the development of depressive symptoms during adolescence, but little remains known regarding the implications of this heterogeneity for the development of commonly co-occurring problems. In this study, we derived trajectories of depressive symptoms in adolescents and examined the codevelopment of multiple behavioral and academic problems in these trajectories. Methods: Participants were 6,910 students from secondary schools primarily located in disadvantaged areas of Quebec (Canada) who were assessed annually from the age 12 to 16 years. Trajectories were identified using growth mixture modeling. The course of behavioral (delinquency, substance use) and academic adjustment (school liking, academic achievement) in trajectories was examined by deriving latent growth curves for each covariate conditional on trajectory membership. Results: We identified five trajectories of stable-low (68.1%), increasing (12.1%), decreasing (8.7%), transient (8.7%), and stable-high (2.4%) depressive symptoms. Examination of conditional latent growth curves revealed that the course of behavioral and academic problems closely mirrored the course of depressive symptoms in each trajectory. Conclusions: This pattern of results suggests that the course of depressive symptoms and other adjustment problems over time is likely to involve an important contribution of shared underlying developmental process(es).