970 resultados para Toll-free telephone calls
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The results from a study to assess the importance Maltese pharmacists placed on various aspects of pharmaceutical care and their willingness to provide such care are reported. A modified version of the Behavioural Pharmaceutical Care Scale (BPCS) questionnaire (consisting of three dimensions and 14 domains) was mailed to the 198 privately owned community pharmacies in Malta. A total of 99 questionnaires were returned following two reminder telephone calls.
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Background: Palliative care incorporates comprehensive support of family caregivers because many of them experience burden and distress. However, evidence-based support initiatives are few.
Purpose: We evaluated a one-to-one psychoeducational intervention aimed at mitigating the distress of caregivers of patients with advanced cancer receiving home-based palliative care. We hypothesised that caregivers would report decreased distress as assessed by the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).
Method: A randomised controlled trial comparing two versions of the delivery of the intervention (one face-to-face home visit plus telephone calls versus two visits) plus standard care to a control group (standard care only) across four sites in Australia.
Results: Recruitment to the one visit condition was 57, the two visit condition 93, and the control 148. We previously reported non-significant changes in distress between times 1 (baseline) and 2 (1-week post-intervention) but significant gains in competence and preparedness. We report here changes in distress between times 1 and 3 (8-week post-death). There was significantly less worsening in distress between times 1 and 3 in the one visit intervention group than in the control group; however, no significant difference was found between the two visit intervention and the control group.
Conclusions: These results are consistent with the aim of the intervention, and they support existing evidence demonstrating that relatively short psychoeducational interventions can help family caregivers who are supporting a dying relative. The sustained benefit during the bereavement period may also have positive resource implications, which should be the subject of future inquiry. © 2014 The Authors. Psycho-Oncology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Potential human immunodeficiency virus transmission makes prompt disclosure of child sexual abuse in Africa critical. The pattern of disclosure of 133 children presenting to the largest hospital in Malawi were analyzed. Eighty percent presented early enough for effective use of HIV postexposure prophylaxis. Seventy-five percent of children made a disclosure of child sexual abuse; 29% spontaneously and 47% after prompting. Disclosures were most commonly made to a parent, and age did not affect the pattern of disclosure. The number of children reporting child sexual abuse is increasing, possibly because of increasing awareness, availability of services, and fear of HIV. Although prompt disclosure rates were relatively high, facilitating easier disclosure of child sexual abuse by a free telephone help-line and better training of teachers may be helpful.
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The effectiveness of lipid-lowering medication critically depends on the patients' compliance and the efficacy of the prescribed drug. The primary objective of this multicentre study was to compare the efficacy of rosuvastatin with or without access to compliance initiatives, in bringing patients to the Joint European Task Force's (1998) recommended low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level goal (LDL-C, <3.0 mmol/L) at week 24. Secondary objectives were comparison of the number and percentage of patients achieving European goals (1998, 2003) for LDL-C and other lipid parameters. Patients with primary hypercholesterolaemia and a 10-year coronary heart disease risk of >20% received open label rosuvastatin treatment for 24 weeks with or without access to compliance enhancement tools. The initial daily dosage of 10 mg could be doubled at week 12. Compliance tools included: a) a starter pack for subjects containing a videotape, an educational leaflet, a passport/goal diary and details of the helpline and/or website; b) regular personalised letters to provide message reinforcement; c) a toll-free helpline and a website. The majority of patients (67%) achieved the 1998 European goal for LDL-C at week 24. 31% required an increase in dosage of rosuvastatin to 20 mg at week 12. Compliance enhancement tools did not increase the number of patients achieving either the 1998 or the 2003 European target for plasma lipids. Rosuvastatin was well tolerated during this study. The safety profile was comparable with other drugs of the same class. 63 patients in the 10 mg group and 58 in the 10 mg Plus group discontinued treatment. The main reasons for discontinuation were adverse events (39 patients in the 10 mg group; 35 patients in the 10 mg Plus group) and loss to follow-up (13 patients in the 10 mg group; 9 patients in the 10 mg Plus group). The two most frequently reported adverse events were myalgia (34 patients, 3% respectively) and back pain (23 patients, 2% respectively). The overall rate of temporary or permanent study discontinuation due to adverse events was 9% (n = 101) in patients receiving 10 mg rosuvastatin and 3% (n = 9) in patients titrated up to 20 mg rosuvastatin. Rosuvastatin was effective in lowering LDL-C values in patients with hypercholesterolaemia to the 1998 European target at week 24. However, compliance enhancement tools did not increase the number of patients achieving any European targets for plasma lipids.
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La dépression postnatale (DP) est un problème de santé publique très fréquent dans différentes cultures (Affonso et al, 2000). En effet, entre 10% à 15% des mères souffrent d’une symptomatogie dépressive ainsi que l’indiquent Gorman et al. (2004). La prévention de la DP est l’objectif de différents programmes prénatals et postnatals (Dennis, 2005; Lumley et al, 2004). Certains auteurs notent qu’il est difficile d’avoir accès aux femmes à risque après la naissance (Evins et al, 2000; Georgiopoulos et al, 2001). Mais, les femmes fréquentent les centres de santé pendant la grossesse et il est possible d’identifier les cas à risque à partir des symptômes prénataux dépressifs ou somatiques (Riguetti-Veltema et al, 2006); d’autant plus qu’un grand nombre de facteurs de risque de la DP sont présents pendant la grossesse (O’Hara et Gorman, 2004). C’est pourquoi cette étude fut initiée pendant le premier trimestre de la grossesse à partir d’une détection précoce du risque de DP chez n= 529 femmes de classes moyenne et défavorisée, et, cela, au moyen d’un questionnaire validé utilisé à l’aide d’une entrevue. L’étude s’est effectuée dans trois villes : Barcelone, Figueres, et Béziers au cours des années 2003 à 2005. Objectif général : La présente étude vise à évaluer les effets d’un programme prénatal de groupes de rencontre appliqué dans la présente étude chez des couples de classe socioéconomique non favorisée dont les femmes sont considérées comme à risque de dépression postnatale. L’objectif spécifique est de comparer deux groupes de femmes (un groupe expérimental et un groupe témoin) par rapport aux effets du programme prénatal sur les symptômes de dépression postnatale mesurés à partir de la 4ème semaine après l’accouchement avec l’échelle EPDS. Hypothèse: Les femmes participant au programme prénatal de groupe adressé aux couples parentaux, composé de 10 séances hebdomadaires et inspiré d’une orientation psychosomatique présenteront, au moins, un taux de 6% inférieur de cas à risque de dépression postnatale que les femmes qui ne participent pas, et cela, une fois évaluées avec l’échelle EPDS (≥12) 4 semaines après leur accouchement. Matériel et méthode: La présente étude évaluative est basée sur un essai clinique randomisé et longitudinal; il s’étend de la première ou deuxième visite d’échographie pendant la grossesse à un moment situé entre la 4ème et la 12ème semaine postnatale. Les participants à l’étude sont des femmes de classes moyenne et défavorisée identifiées à risque de DP et leur conjoint. Toutes les femmes répondant aux critères d’inclusion à la période du recrutement ont effectué une entrevue de sélection le jour de leur échographie prénatale à l’hôpital (n=529). Seules les femmes indiquant un risque de DP furent sélectionnées (n= 184). Par la suite, elles furent distribuées de manière aléatoire dans deux groupes: expérimental (n=92) et témoin (n=92), au moyen d’un programme informatique appliqué par un statisticien considérant le risque de DP selon le questionnaire validé par Riguetti-Veltema et al. (2006) appliqué à l’aide d’une entrevue. Le programme expérimental consistait en dix séances hebdomadaires de groupe, de deux heures et vingt minutes de durée ; un appel téléphonique entre séances a permis d’assurer la continuité de la participation des sujets. Le groupe témoin a eu accès aux soins habituels. Le programme expérimental commençait à la fin du deuxième trimestre de grossesse et fut appliqué par un médecin et des sages-femmes spécialement préparées au préalable; elles ont dirigé les séances prénatales avec une approche psychosomatique. Les variables associées à la DP (non psychotique) comme la symptomatologie dépressive, le soutien social, le stress et la relation de couple ont été évaluées avant et après la naissance (pré-test/post-test) chez toutes les femmes participantes des deux groupes (GE et GC) utilisant : l’échelle EPDS (Cox et al,1987), le Functional Social Support Questionnaire (Broadhead et al, 1988), l’évaluation du stress de Holmes et Rahe (1967) et, l’échelle d’ajustement dyadique de Spanier (1976). La collecte des données prénatales a eu lieu à l’hôpital, les femmes recevaient les questionnaires à la fin de l’entrevue, les complétaient à la maison et les retournaient au rendez-vous suivant. Les données postnatales ont été envoyées par les femmes utilisant la poste locale. Résultats: Une fois évalués les symptômes dépressifs postnatals avec l’échelle EPDS entre la 4ème et la 12ème semaine postnatale et considérant le risque de DP au point de césure ≥ 12 de l’échelle, le pourcentage de femmes à risque de DP est de 39,34%; globalement, les femmes étudiées présentent un taux élevé de symptomatologie dépressive. Les groupes étant comparables sur toutes les variables prénatales, notons une différence dans l’évaluation postnatale de l’EPDS (≥12) de 11,2% entre le groupe C et le groupe E (45,5% et 34,3%). Et la différence finale entre les moyennes de l’EPDS postnatal est de 1,76 ( =11,10 ±6,05 dans le groupe C et =9,34 ±5,17 dans le groupe E) ; cette différence s’aproche de la limite de la signification (p=0,08). Ceci est dû à un certain nombre de facteurs dont le faible nombre de questionnaires bien complétés à la fin de l’étude. Les femmes du groupe expérimental présentent une diminution significative des symptômes dépressifs (t=2,50 / P= 0,01) comparativement au pré-test et indiquant une amélioration au contraire du groupe témoin sans changement. Les analyses de régression et de covariance montrent que le soutien social postnatal, les symptômes dépressifs prénatals et le stress postnatal ont une relation significative avec les symptômes dépressifs postnatals (P<0,0001 ; P=0.003; P=0.004). La relation du couple n’a pas eu d’impact sur le risque de DP dans la présente étude. Par contre, on constate d’autres résultats secondaires significatifs: moins de naissances prématurées, plus d’accouchements physiologiques et un plus faible taux de somatisations non spécifiques chez les mères du groupe expérimental. Recommandations: Les résultats obtenus nous suggèrent la considération des aspects suivants: 1) il faudrait appliquer les mesures pour détecter le risque de DP à la période prénatale au moment des visites d’échographie dont presque toutes les femmes sont atteignables; il est possible d’utiliser à ce moment un questionnaire de détection validé car, son efficacité semble démontrée; 2) il faudrait intervenir auprès des femmes identifiées à risque à la période prénatale à condition de prolonger le programme préventif après la naissance, tel qu’indiqué par d’autres études et par la demande fréquente des femmes évaluées. L’intervention prénatale de groupe n’est pas suffisante pour éviter le risque de DP chez la totalité des femmes. C’est pourquoi une troisième recommandation consisterait à : 3) ajouter des interventions individuelles pour les cas les plus graves et 4) il paraît nécessaire d’augmenter le soutien social chez des femmes défavorisées vulnérables car cette variable s’est révélée très liée au risque de dépression postnatale.
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Pós-graduação em Comunicação - FAAC
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The Wildlife Master (WM) Program in Colorado was modeled after the highly successful Master Gardener volunteer program. In 10 highly populated suburban counties with large rural areas surrounding the Denver Metro Area, Colorado State University (CSU) Cooperative Extension Natural Resources agents train, supervise and manage these volunteers in the identification, referral, and resolution of wildlife damage issues. High quality, research-based training is provided by university faculty and other professionals in public health, animal damage control, wildlife management and animal behavior. Inquiries are responded to mainly via telephone. Calls by concerned residents are forwarded to WMs who provide general information about human-wildlife conflicts and possible ways to resolve complaints. Each volunteer serves a minimum of 14 days on phone duty annually, calling in from a remote location to a voice mail system from which phone messages can be conveniently retrieved. Response time per call is generally less than 24 hours. During 2004, more than 2,000 phone calls, e-mail messages and walk-in requests for assistance were fielded by 100 cooperative extension WMs. Calls fielded by volunteers in one county increased five-fold during the past five years, from 100 calls to over 500 calls annually. Valued at the rate of approximately $18.00 per volunteer hour, the leveraged value of each WM was about $450 in 2005, based on 25 hours of service and training. The estimated value of the program to Colorado in 2004 was over $45,000 of in-kind service, or about one full-time equivalent faculty member. This paper describes components of Colorado’s WM Program, with guides to the set-up of similar programs in other states.
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Background Falling in older age is a major public health concern due to its costly and disabling consequences. However very few randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted in developing countries, in which population ageing is expected to be particularly substantial in coming years. This article describes the design of an RCT to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactorial falls prevention program in reducing the rate of falls in community-dwelling older people. Methods/design Multicentre parallel-group RCT involving 612 community-dwelling men and women aged 60 years and over, who have fallen at least once in the previous year. Participants will be recruited in multiple settings in Sao Paulo, Brazil and will be randomly allocated to a control group or an intervention group. The usual care control group will undergo a fall risk factor assessment and be referred to their clinicians with the risk assessment report so that individual modifiable risk factors can be managed without any specific guidance. The intervention group will receive a 12-week Multifactorial Falls Prevention Program consisting of: an individualised medical management of modifiable risk factors, a group-based, supervised balance training exercise program plus an unsupervised home-based exercise program, an educational/behavioral intervention. Both groups will receive a leaflet containing general information about fall prevention strategies. Primary outcome measures will be the rate of falls and the proportion of fallers recorded by monthly falls diaries and telephone calls over a 12 month period. Secondary outcomes measures will include risk of falling, fall-related self-efficacy score, measures of balance, mobility and strength, fall-related health services use and independence with daily tasks. Data will be analysed using the intention-to-treat principle.The incidence of falls in the intervention and control groups will be calculated and compared using negative binomial regression analysis. Discussion This study is the first trial to be conducted in Brazil to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention to prevent falls. If proven to reduce falls this study has the potential to benefit older adults and assist health care practitioners and policy makers to implement and promote effective falls prevention interventions. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01698580)
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Interpreter profession is currently changing: migration flows, the economic crisis and the fast development of ICTs brought unexpected changes in our societies and in traditional interpreting services all over. Remote interpreting (RI), which entails new methods such as videoconference interpreting and telephone interpreting (TI), has greatly developed and now sees interpreters working remotely and being connected to service users via videoconference set up or telephone calls. This dissertation aims at studying and analyzing the relevant aspects of interpreter-mediated telephone calls, describing the consequences for the interpreters in this new working field, as well as defining new strategies and techniques interpreters must develop in order to adjust to the new working context. For these purposes, the objectives of this dissertation are the following: to describe the settings in which RI is mostly used, to study the prominent consequences on interpreters and analyze real interpreter-mediated conversations. The dissertation deals with issues studied by the Shift project, a European project which aims at creating teaching materials for remote interpreting; the project started in 2015 and the University of Bologna and in particular the DIT - Department of Interpreting and Translation is the coordinating unit and promoting partner. This dissertation is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 contains an outline of the major research related to RI and videoconference interpreting as well as a description of its main settings: healthcare, law, business economics and institution. Chapter 2 focuses on the physiological and psychological implications for interpreters working on RI. The concepts of absence, presence and remoteness are discussed; some opinions of professional interpreters and legal practitioners (LPs) concerning remote interpreting are offered as well. In chapter 3, telephone interpreting is presented; basic concepts of conversational analysis and prominent traits of interpreter-mediated calls are also explored. Chapter 4 presents the materials and methodology used for the analysis of data. The results, discussed in Chapter 5, show that telephone interpreting may be suitable for some specific contexts; however, it is clear that interpreters must get appropriate training before working in any form of RI. The dissertation finally offers suggestions for the implementation of training in RI for future interpreting students.
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BACKGROUND: The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%-48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness. CONCLUSIONS: In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes.
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INTRODUCTION There are limited data on paediatric HIV care and treatment programmes in low-resource settings. METHODS A standardized survey was completed by International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS paediatric cohort sites in the regions of Asia-Pacific (AP), Central Africa (CA), East Africa (EA), Southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) to understand operational resource availability and paediatric management practices. Data were collected through January 2010 using a secure, web-based software program (REDCap). RESULTS A total of 64,552 children were under care at 63 clinics (AP, N=10; CA, N=4; EA, N=29; SA, N=10; WA, N=10). Most were in urban settings (N=41, 65%) and received funding from governments (N=51, 81%), PEPFAR (N=34, 54%), and/or the Global Fund (N=15, 24%). The majority were combined adult-paediatric clinics (N=36, 57%). Prevention of mother-to-child transmission was integrated at 35 (56%) sites; 89% (N=56) had access to DNA PCR for infant diagnosis. African (N=40/53) but not Asian sites recommended exclusive breastfeeding up until 4-6 months. Regular laboratory monitoring included CD4 (N=60, 95%), and viral load (N=24, 38%). Although 42 (67%) sites had the ability to conduct acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smears, 23 (37%) sites could conduct AFB cultures and 18 (29%) sites could conduct tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Loss to follow-up was defined as >3 months of lost contact for 25 (40%) sites, >6 months for 27 sites (43%) and >12 months for 6 sites (10%). Telephone calls (N=52, 83%) and outreach worker home visits to trace children lost to follow-up (N=45, 71%) were common. CONCLUSIONS In general, there was a high level of patient and laboratory monitoring within this multiregional paediatric cohort consortium that will facilitate detailed observational research studies. Practices will continue to be monitored as the WHO/UNAIDS Treatment 2.0 framework is implemented.
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The study's objective was to assess the reliability, acceptability, and concordance of cancer pain health states when using two utility assessment methods—simple rank order (RO) and numerical analogue scale (NAS). Additional aims were to describe the preferences of Hispanic and non-Hispanic community members toward cancer pain health states and identify predictors affecting these preferences. In this descriptive, cross-sectional study, telephone calls were made to a quota sample of 1,387 households that had telephone numbers listed for the Houston and surrounding Harris County area. Subjects (n = 302) within the general population completed a 20 minute telephone interview in their preferred language—English or Spanish. Study respondents assessed six cancer pain health states consisting of three attributes, pain intensity, presence of side effects, and interference with daily function. ^ Overall, the numerical analogue scale (NAS) had better test-retest reliability. Respondents were able to clearly distinguish the worst health state using both methods, but were not able to do so as clearly for less severe health states. Acceptability and subjects' ability to answer questions and complete the survey was high. Missing responses were low across methods for all health states. Concordance in the health state rankings was higher for the most severe health state in the non-Hispanic group, those in fair to poor health, males, and those $30,000 or greater income. Preferences for the less severe health states did not show much variation across methods. No significant predictors for health states were found except for ethnicity for a less severe health state when using the rank order method. ^ We found that the rank order (RO) and numerical analogue scale (NAS) are both robust in ranking the more severe cancer pain health states, e.g., moderate pain with three side effects. This study documents that RO and NAS methods to assess cancer pain preferences through a telephone-based approach among a relative diverse community dwelling, non-patient population for cancer pain health states represented a relatively valid and acceptable approach. ^
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Background. Each year thousands of people participate in mass health screenings for diabetes and hypertension, but little is known about whether or not those who receive higher than normal screening results obtain the recommended follow-up medical care, or what barriers they perceive to doing so. ^ Methods. Study participants were recruited from attendees at three health fairs in low-income neighborhoods in Houston, Texas Potential participants had higher than normal blood pressure (> 90/140 mgHg) or blood glucose readings (100 mm/dL fasting or 140 mm/dL random). Study participants were called at one, two, and three months and asked if they had obtained follow-up medical care; those who had not yet obtained follow-up care were asked to identify barriers. Using a modified Aday-Andersen model of health service access, the independent variables were individual and community characteristics and self-perceived need. The dependent variable was obtaining follow-up care, with barriers to care a secondary outcome. ^ Results. Eighty-two study participants completed the initial questionnaire and 59 participants completed the study protocol. Forty-eight participants (59% under an intent to treat analysis, 81% of those completing the study protocol) obtained follow-up care. Those who completed the initial questionnaire and who reported a regular source of care were significantly more likely to obtain follow-up care. For those who completed the study protocol the relationship between having a regular source of care and obtaining follow-up care approached but did not reach significance. For those who completed the initial questionnaire, self-described health status, when examined as a binary variable (good, very good, excellent, or poor, fair, not sure) was associated with obtaining follow-up care for those who rated their health as poor, fair, or not sure. While the group who completed the study protocol did not reach statistical significance, the same relationship between self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure and obtaining follow-up care was present. The participants who completed the study protocol and described their blood pressure as OK or a little high were statistically more likely to get follow-up care than those who described it as high or very high. All those on oral medications for hypertension (12/12) and diabetes (4/4) who were told to obtain follow-up care did so; however, the small sample size allows this correlation to be of statistical significance only for those treating hypertension. ^ The variables significantly associated with obtaining follow-up care were having a regular source of care, self-described health status of poor, fair, or not sure, self-described blood pressure of OK or a little high, and taking medication for blood pressure. ^ At the follow-up telephone calls, 34 participants identified barriers to care; cost was a significant barrier reported by 16 participants, and 10 reported that they didn’t have time because they were working long hours after Hurricane Ike. ^ The study included the offer of access assistance: information about nearby safety-net providers, a visit to or information from the Health Information Center at their Neighborhood Center location, or information from Project Safety Net (a searchable web site for safety net providers). Access assistance was offered at the health fairs and then again at follow-up telephone calls to those who had not yet obtained follow-up care. Of the 48 participants who reported obtaining follow-up care, 26 said they had made use of the access assistance to do so. The use of access assistance was associated with being Hispanic, not having health insurance or a regular source of care, and speaking Spanish. It was also associated with being worried about blood glucose. ^ Conclusion. Access assistance, as a community enabling characteristic, may be useful in aiding low-income people in obtaining medical care. ^
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El propósito de la presente investigación es determinar si, a través del estudio y análisis de los estudios de tráfico en autopistas de peaje, se pueden determinar las razones de los incumplimientos en las previsiones de estos estudios. La metodología se basa en un análisis empírico ex- post facto de los estudios de tráfico contenidos en los anteproyectos de las autopistas Radial 3 y Radial 5 y los datos realmente verificados. Tras una introducción para presentar las principales características de las autopistas de peaje, se realiza una revisión de la bibliografía sobre el cumplimiento de las previsiones de tráfico. Lo anterior permite establecer una serie de aspectos que pueden contribuir a estos incumplimientos, así como una serie de medidas encontradas para mejorar las futuras previsiones. Ya en el núcleo fundamental de la investigación, esta se centra en el análisis del cumplimiento de las previsiones de tráfico contenidas en los anteproyectos de la Radial 3 y Radial 5. Se realiza un análisis crítico de la metodología adoptada, así como de las variables e hipótesis realizadas. Tras este primer análisis, se profundiza en la fase de asignación de los estudios. Siempre con base a los tráficos reales y para el año 2006, se cuantifica el efecto en los incumplimientos, por un lado de las variables utilizadas, y por otro, del propio método ó curva de asignación. Finalmente, y con base en los hallazgos anteriores, se determinan una serie de limitaciones en el método de asignación de tráficos entre recorridos alternativos para el caso de entornos urbanos usado. El planteamiento con base a las teorías del agente racional y maximización de la utilidad esperada es criticado desde la perspectiva de la teoría de decisión bajo condiciones de riesgo planteada por Kahneman y Tversky. Para superar las limitaciones anteriores, se propone una nueva curva de asignación semi empírica que relaciona la proporción del tráfico que circula por la autopista de peaje con la velocidad media en la autovía libre alternativa. ABSTRACT The aim of this research is to confirm whether the forensic analysis of the traffic forecast studies for tolled highways may bring to light the reasons behind the lack of accuracy. The methodology used on this research is empirical and is based on the ex –post facto analysis of the real traffic numbers compared to the forecasted for the tolled highways Radial 3 and Radial 5. Firstly the main features of tolled highways are presented as an introductory chapter. Secondly a broad bibliographic search is presented, this is done from a global perspective and from the Spanish perspective too. From this review, a list of the main causes behind the systematic inaccuracy together with measures to improve future traffic forecast exercises are shown. In what we could consider as the core of the research, it focuses on the ratios of actual / forecast traffic for the tolled highways Radial 3 y Radial 5 in Madrid outskirts. From a critical perspective, the methodology and inputs used in the traffic studies are analysed. In a further step, the trip assignment stage is scrutinised to quantify the influence of the inputs and the assignment model itself in the accuracy of the traffic studies. This exercise is bases on the year 2006. Finally, the assignment model used is criticised for its application in tolled urban highways. The assumptions behind the model, rational agent and expected utility maximization theories, are questioned under the theories presented by Kahneman and Tversky (Prospect Theory). To overcome these assignment model limitations, the author presents a semi empiric new diversion curve. This curve links the traffic proportion using the tolled highway and the average speed in the toll free alternative highway.
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Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.