Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Some misspecfication problems in long-memory time series models

Doctor of Philosophy in Mathematics

On Reasonable Space and Time Cost Models for the λ-Calculus

Slot and van Emde Boas Invariance Thesis states that a time (respectively, space) cost model is reasonable for a computational model C if there are mutual simulations between Turing machines and C such that the overhead is polynomial in time (respectively, linear in space). The rationale is that under the Invariance Thesis, complexity classes such as LOGSPACE, P, PSPACE, become robust, i.e. machine independent. In this dissertation, we want to find out if it possible to define a reasonable space cost model for the lambda-calculus, the paradigmatic model for functional programming languages. We start by considering an unusual evaluation mechanism for the lambda-calculus, based on Girard's Geometry of Interaction, that was conjectured to be the key ingredient to obtain a space reasonable cost model. By a fine complexity analysis of this schema, based on new variants of non-idempotent intersection types, we disprove this conjecture. Then, we change the target of our analysis. We consider a variant over Krivine's abstract machine, a standard evaluation mechanism for the call-by-name lambda-calculus, optimized for space complexity, and implemented without any pointer. A fine analysis of the execution of (a refined version of) the encoding of Turing machines into the lambda-calculus allows us to conclude that the space consumed by this machine is indeed a reasonable space cost model. In particular, for the first time we are able to measure also sub-linear space complexities. Moreover, we transfer this result to the call-by-value case. Finally, we provide also an intersection type system that characterizes compositionally this new reasonable space measure. This is done through a minimal, yet non trivial, modification of the original de Carvalho type system.

Analysis of Some Single and Two Commodity Inventory Problems

This thesis is devoted to the study of some stochastic models in inventories. An inventory system is a facility at which items of materials are stocked. In order to promote smooth and efficient running of business, and to provide adequate service to the customers, an inventory materials is essential for any enterprise. When uncertainty is present, inventories are used as a protection against risk of stock out. It is advantageous to procure the item before it is needed at a lower marginal cost. Again, by bulk purchasing, the advantage of price discounts can be availed. All these contribute to the formation of inventory. Maintaining inventories is a major expenditure for any organization. For each inventory, the fundamental question is how much new stock should be ordered and when should the orders are replaced. In the present study, considered several models for single and two commodity stochastic inventory problems. The thesis discusses two models. In the first model, examined the case in which the time elapsed between two consecutive demand points are independent and identically distributed with common distribution function F(.) with mean  (assumed finite) and in which demand magnitude depends only on the time elapsed since the previous demand epoch. The time between disasters has an exponential distribution with parameter . In Model II, the inter arrival time of disasters have general distribution (F.) with mean  ( ) and the quantity destructed depends on the time elapsed between disasters. Demands form compound poison processes with inter arrival times of demands having mean 1/. It deals with linearly correlated bulk demand two Commodity inventory problem, where each arrival demands a random number of items of each commodity C1 and C2, the maximum quantity demanded being a (< S1) and b(

ON (s,S) inventory policy with/without retrial and interruption of services/production

In this thesis we have developed a few inventory models in which items are served to the customers after a processing time. This leads to a queue of demand even when items are available. In chapter two we have discussed a problem involving search of orbital customers for providing inventory. Retrial of orbital customers was also considered in that chapter; in chapter 5 also we discussed retrial inventory model which is sans orbital search of customers. In the remaining chapters (3, 4 and 6) we did not consider retrial of customers, rather we assumed the waiting room capacity of the system to be arbitrarily large. Though the models in chapters 3 and 4 differ only in that in the former we consider positive lead time for replenishment of inventory and in the latter the same is assumed to be negligible, we arrived at sharper results in chapter 4. In chapter 6 we considered a production inventory model with production time distribution for a single item and that of service time of a customer following distinct Erlang distributions. We also introduced protection of production and service stages and investigated the optimal values of the number of stages to be protected.

Investigations on Stochastic Storage Systems with Positive Service Time

In this thesis the queueing-inventory models considered are analyzed as continuous time Markov chains in which we use the tools such as matrix analytic methods. We obtain the steady-state distributions of various queueing-inventory models in product form under the assumption that no customer joins the system when the inventory level is zero. This is despite the strong correlation between the number of customers joining the system and the inventory level during lead time. The resulting quasi-birth-anddeath (QBD) processes are solved explicitly by matrix geometric methods

Studies on Inventory with Positive Service Time Under Local Purchase Driven by N/T- Policy

In this thesis, certain continuous time inventory problems with positive service time under local purchase guided by N/T-policy are analysed. In most of the cases analysed, we arrive at stochastic decomposition of system states, that is, the joint distribution of the system states is obtained as the product of marginal distributions of the components. The thesis is divided into ve chapters

Summary of the 6th international workshop on models@run.time

The 6th edition of the workshop Models@run.time was held at the 14th International Conference MODELS. The workshop took place in the city of Wellington, New Zealand, on the 17th of October 2011. The workshop was organised by Nelly Bencomo, Gordon Blair, Robert France, Betty H.C. Cheng, and Cédric Jeanneret. We present a summary of the workshop and a synopsis of the papers presented during the workshop. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Second international workshop on models@run.time

The second edition of the workshop Models@run.time was co-located with the ACM/IEEE 10th International Conference on Model Driven Engineering Languages and Systems. The workshop took place in the lively city of Nashville, USA, on the 2nd of October, 2007. The workshop was organised by Nelly Bencomo, Robert France, and Gordon Blair and was attended by at least 25 people from 7 countries. This summary gives an overview of the presentations and lively discussions that took place during the workshop. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Summary of the 5th international workshop on models@run.time

The 5th edition of the workshop Models@run.time was held at the 13th International Conference MODELS. The workshop took place in the exciting city of Oslo, Norway, on the 5th of October 2010. The workshop was organised by Nelly Bencomo, Gordon Blair, Franck Fleurey, and Cédric Jeanneret. It was attended by at least 33 people from more than 11 countries. In this summary we present a synopsis of the presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

4th international workshop on Models@run.time

The 4th edition of the workshop Models@run.time was held at the 12th International Conference on Model Driven Engineering Languages and Systems (MODELS). The workshop took place in the city of Denver, Colorado, USA, on the 5th of October 2009. The workshop was organised by Nelly Bencomo, Robert France, Gordon Blair, Freddy Muñoz, and Cédric Jeanneret. It was attended by at least 45 people from more than 10 countries. In this summary we present a synopsis of the presentations and discussions that took place during the 4th International Workshop on Models@run.time. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

Third international workshop on models@run.time

The third edition of the workshop Models@run.time was held at the ACM/IEEE 11th International Conference on Model Driven Engineering Languages and Systems (MODELS). The workshop took place in the beautiful city of Toulouse, France, on the 30th of October, 2008. The workshop was organised by Nelly Bencomo, Robert France, Gordon Blair, Freddy Muñoz, and Cèdric Jeanneret.It was attended by at least 44 people from more than 10 countries. In this summary we present an overview of the presentations and fruitful discussions that took place during the 3rd edition of the workshop Models@run.time.

Coordinated pricing and inventory management

This dissertation mainly focuses on coordinated pricing and inventory management problems, where the related background is provided in Chapter 1. Several periodic-review models are then discussed in Chapters 2,3,4 and 5, respectively. Chapter 2 analyzes a deterministic single-product model, where a price adjustment cost incurs if the current selling price is changed from the previous period. We develop exact algorithms for the problem under different conditions and find out that computation complexity varies significantly associated with the cost structure. %Moreover, our numerical study indicates that dynamic pricing strategies may outperform static pricing strategies even when price adjustment cost accounts for a significant portion of the total profit. Chapter 3 develops a single-product model in which demand of a period depends not only on the current selling price but also on past prices through the so-called reference price. Strongly polynomial time algorithms are designed for the case without no fixed ordering cost, and a heuristic is proposed for the general case together with an error bound estimation. Moreover, our illustrates through numerical studies that incorporating reference price effect into coordinated pricing and inventory models can have a significant impact on firms' profits. Chapter 4 discusses the stochastic version of the model in Chapter 3 when customers are loss averse. It extends the associated results developed in literature and proves that the reference price dependent base-stock policy is proved to be optimal under a certain conditions. Instead of dealing with specific problems, Chapter 5 establishes the preservation of supermodularity in a class of optimization problems. This property and its extensions include several existing results in the literature as special cases, and provide powerful tools as we illustrate their applications to several operations problems: the stochastic two-product model with cross-price effects, the two-stage inventory control model, and the self-financing model.

Real-Time Simulation of energy Management in a Domestic Consumer

Recent and future changes in power systems, mainly in the smart grid operation context, are related to a high complexity of power networks operation. This leads to more complex communications and to higher network elements monitoring and control levels, both from network’s and consumers’ standpoint. The present work focuses on a real scenario of the LASIE laboratory, located at the Polytechnic of Porto. Laboratory systems are managed by the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM), already developed by the authors based on a SCADA system. The SHIM capacities have been recently improved by including real-time simulation from Opal RT. This makes possible the integration of Matlab®/Simulink® real-time simulation models. The main goal of the present paper is to compare the advantages of the resulting improved system, while managing the energy consumption of a domestic consumer.

A Multi-DAG Model for Real-Time Parallel Applications with Conditional Execution

The 30th ACM/SIGAPP Symposium On Applied Computing (SAC 2015). 13 to 17, Apr, 2015, Embedded Systems. Salamanca, Spain.