Engaging social customers : influencing new marketing strategies for social media information sources

A global, online quantitative study among 300 consumers of digital technology products found the most reliable information sources were friends, family or word of mouth (WOM) from someone they knew, followed by expert product reviews, and product reviews written by other consumers. The most unreliable information sources were advertising or infomercials, automated recommendations based on purchasing patterns or retailers. While a very small number of consumers evaluated products online, rating of products and online discussions were more frequent activities. The most popular social media websites for reviews were Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and e-Bay, indicating the importance of WOM in social networks and online media spaces that feature product reviews as it is the most persuasive piece of information in both online and offline social networks. These results suggest that ‘social customers’ must be considered as an integral part of a marketing strategy.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Extremely cold and hot temperatures increase the risk of ischaemic heart disease mortality : epidemiological evidence from China

Objective: To examine the effects of extremely cold and hot temperatures on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou) in China; and to examine the time relationships between cold and hot temperatures and IHD mortality for each city. Design: A negative binomial regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine city-specific temperature effects on IHD mortality up to 20 lag days. A meta-analysis was used to pool the cold effects and hot effects across the five cities. Patients: 16 559 IHD deaths were monitored by a sentinel surveillance system in five cities during 2004–2008. Results: The relationships between temperature and IHD mortality were non-linear in all five cities. The minimum-mortality temperatures in northern cities were lower than in southern cities. In Beijing, Tianjin and Guangzhou, the effects of extremely cold temperatures were delayed, while Shanghai and Wuhan had immediate cold effects. The effects of extremely hot temperatures appeared immediately in all the cities except Wuhan. Meta-analysis showed that IHD mortality increased 48% at the 1st percentile of temperature (extremely cold temperature) compared with the 10th percentile, while IHD mortality increased 18% at the 99th percentile of temperature (extremely hot temperature) compared with the 90th percentile. Conclusions: Results indicate that both extremely cold and hot temperatures increase IHD mortality in China. Each city has its characteristics of heat effects on IHD mortality. The policy for response to climate change should consider local climate–IHD mortality relationships.

Estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasms by DALYs in Shandong Province [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担的研究]

Objective: To evaluate the burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong Province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main data for this study were from Shandong third cause of death sampling survey in 2006 and Shandong 2007 cancer prevalence survey. YLLs, YLDs, DALYs and disability weights of each type of cancers were calculated according to the global burdens of disease （GBD） methodology. The direct method was used to estimate YLDs. The uncertainty analysis was conducted following the methodology in GBD study. Results: The total cancers burden in Shandong population was 1 383 thousands DALYs. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and esophagus cancer were the top four cancers with the highest health burden. The burden of the four major cancers together accounted for 71.45% of the total burden of all cancers. 95% of the total burden of malignant tumors was caused by premature death, and only 5.26% of the total cancer burden was due to disability. The uncertainty of total burden estimate was around±11%， the uncertainty of YLDs was bigger than that of YLLs. Conclusion: The health burden due to cancers in Shandong population is heavier than that of the national average level. Liver cancer, lung cancer and stomach cancer should be the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong.

Incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in the Asia-Pacific region

Objective: To provide an overview of the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer for countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods: Statistical information about breast cancer was obtained from publicly available cancer registry and mortality databases (such as GLOBOCAN), and supplemented with data requested from individual cancer registries. Rates were directly age-standardised to the Segi World Standard population and trends were analysed using joinpoint models. Results: Breast cancer was the most common type of cancer among females in the region, accounting for 18% of all cases in 2012, and was the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths (9%). Although incidence rates remain much higher in New Zealand and Australia, rapid rises in recent years were observed in several Asian countries. Large increases in breast cancer mortality rates also occurred in many areas, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, in contrast to stabilising trends in Hong Kong and Singapore, while decreases have been recorded in Australia and New Zealand. Mortality trends tended to be more favourable for women aged under 50 compared to those who were 50 years or older. Conclusion: It is anticipated that incidence rates of breast cancer in developing countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region will continue to increase. Early detection and access to optimal treatment are the keys to reducing breast cancer-related mortality, but cultural and economic obstacles persist. Consequently, the challenge is to customise breast cancer control initiatives to the particular needs of each country to ensure the best possible outcomes.

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

Assessment of the underreporting rate of death cause data in Shandong province using capture-mark-recapture method [应用捕获再捕获方法评估山东省死因登记漏报率水平]

To evaluate the underreporting rate of death -cause data in Shandong province during 2012 to 2013 by capture -mark -recapture method and to provide the base for health strategy. Methods All counties were divided into 5 stratifications according the death rates of 2012, and 14 counties were selected, then 3 towns or streets were selected in each country, 10 villages or neighborhood committees were selected in each town （street）. The death data collected from security bureau and civil affairs bureau were compared with the reporting death data from the National Cause of Death Surveillance, and the underreporting rate was calculated. Results In present study, 6 929 death cases were collected, it was found that 1 556 cases were underreported. The death cases estimated by CMR method were 6 227 cases （95%CI: 7 593-7 651）, and the average underreporting rate was 23.15%. There were significantly differences between different stratifications （P<0.01）. The underreporting rate in 0-4 years old group was 56.93%, the male underreporting rate was 22.31% and the female underreporting rate was 24.09%. There was no significant difference between male and female groups （P>0.05）. Conclusion There is an obvious underreport in the cause of death surveillance of Shandong province, and the underreporting rates are different among the 5 stratifications. The underreporting rate is higher in 0-4 years old group, and the investigation of the death cause surveillance for young residents is not perfect in some countries. The investigation quality of the death cause surveillance should be improved, increasing the integrity of the report data and adjusting the mortalities in different stratifications for obtaining a accurate mortality in Shandong province.

Whole arm manipulation using closed and hybrid planar chains: A kinematic study

This paper studies planar whole arm manipulation of a circular object using closed loop and hybrid manipulators. The manipulation is simple with fewer degrees of actuation than the task space. This is an useful operation if the initial and final positions of the object are on the same surface. Closed loop manipulator is a 4/5 bar mechanism. In hybrid manipulators a open loop manipulator with 3/4 links is attached to the floating link of 4/5 bar mechanism. The mobility analysis is carried out to find the connectivity of the object with reference to frame. The manipulation (forward kinematics) starts from a given configuration of the object and the manipulator. In hybrid manipulators determination of initial configuration involves inverse kinematics of open loop manipulator. The input joint velocities are used to demonstrate the manipulation. Conditions are specified for prehensile manipulation.

Genome-wide SNP and haplotype analyses reveal a rich history underlying dog domestication

Advances in genome technology have facilitated a new understanding of the historical and genetic processes crucial to rapid phenotypic evolution under domestication(1,2). To understand the process of dog diversification better, we conducted an extensive genome-wide survey of more than 48,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms in dogs and their wild progenitor, the grey wolf. Here we show that dog breeds share a higher proportion of multi-locus haplotypes unique to grey wolves from the Middle East, indicating that they are a dominant source of genetic diversity for dogs rather than wolves from east Asia, as suggested by mitochondrial DNA sequence data(3). Furthermore, we find a surprising correspondence between genetic and phenotypic/functional breed groupings but there are exceptions that suggest phenotypic diversification depended in part on the repeated crossing of individuals with novel phenotypes. Our results show that Middle Eastern wolves were a critical source of genome diversity, although interbreeding with local wolf populations clearly occurred elsewhere in the early history of specific lineages. More recently, the evolution of modern dog breeds seems to have been an iterative process that drew on a limited genetic toolkit to create remarkable phenotypic diversity.

Interactions between building integrated photovoltaics and microclimate in urban environments

BIPV (building integrated photovoltaics) has progressed in the past years and become an element to be considered in city planning. BIPV has significant influence on microclimate in urban environments and the performance of BIPV is also affected by urban climate. The thermal model and electrical performance model of ventilated BIPV are combined to predict PV temperature and PV power output in Tianjin, China. Then, by using dynamic building energy model, the building cooling load for installing BIPV is calculated. A multi-layer model AUSSSM of urban canopy layer is used to assess the effect of BIPV on the Urban Heat Island (UHI). The simulation results show that in comparison with the conventional roof, the total building cooling load with ventilation PV roof may be decreased by 10%. The UHI effect after using BIPV relies on the surface absorptivity of original building. In this case, the daily total PV electricity output in urban areas may be reduced by 13% compared with the suburban areas due to UHI and solar radiation attenuation because of urban air pollution. The calculation results reveal that it is necessary to pay attention to and further analyze interactions between BIPV and microdimate in urban environments to decrease urban pollution, improve BIPV performance and reduce cooling load. Copyright © 2006 by ASME.

Effect of building integrated photovoltaics on microclimate of urban canopy layer

Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) has potential of becoming the mainstream of renewable energy in the urban environment. BIPV has significant influence on the thermal performance of building envelope and changes radiation energy balance by adding or replacing conventional building elements in urban areas. PTEBU model was developed to evaluate the effect of photovoltaic (PV) system on the microclimate of urban canopy layer. PTEBU model consists of four sub-models: PV thermal model, PV electrical performance model, building energy consumption model, and urban canyon energy budget model. PTEBU model is forced with temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation above the roof level and incorporates detailed data of PV system and urban canyon in Tianjin, China. The simulation results show that PV roof and PV façade with ventilated air gap significantly change the building surface temperature and sensible heat flux density, but the air temperature of urban canyon with PV module varies little compared with the urban canyon of no PV. The PV module also changes the magnitude and pattern of diurnal variation of the storage heat flux and the net radiation for the urban canyon with PV increase slightly. The increase in the PV conversion efficiency not only improves the PV power output, but also reduces the urban canyon air temperature. © 2006.

Influence of a building's integrated-photovoltaics on heating and cooling loads

Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) has the potential to become a major source of renewable energy in the urban environment. BIPV has significant influence on the heat transfer through the building envelope because of the change of the thermal resistance by adding or replacing the building elements. Four different roofs are used to assess the impacts of BIPV on the building's heating-and-cooling loads; namely ventilated air-gap BIPV, non-ventilated (closed) air-gap BIPV, closeroof mounted BIPV, and the conventional roof with no PV and no air gap. One-dimensional transient models of four cases are derived to evaluate the PV performances and building cooling-and-heating loads across the different roofs in order to select the appropriate PV building integration method in Tianjin, China. The simulation results show that the PV roof with ventilated air-gap is suitable for the application in summer because this integration leads to the low cooling load and high PV conversion efficiency. The PV roof with ventilation air-gap has a high time lag and small decrement factor in comparison with other three roofs and has the same heat gain as the cool roof of absorptance 0.4. In winter, BIPV of non-ventilated air gap is more appropriate due to the combination of the low heating-load through the PV roof and high PV electrical output. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interactions between Building Integrated Photovoltaics and microclimate in urban environments

BIPV(Building Integrated Photovoltaics) has progressed in the past years and become an element to be considered in city planning. BIPV has influence on microclimate in urban environments and the performance of BIPV is also affected by urban climate. The effect of BIPV on urban microclimate can be summarized under the following four aspects. The change of absorptivity and emissivity from original building surface to PV will change urban radiation balance. After installation of PV, building cooling load will be reduced because of PV shading effect, so urban anthropogenic heat also decreases to some extent. Because PV can reduce carbon dioxide emissions which is one of the reasons for urban heat island, BIPV is useful to mitigate this phenomena. The anthropogenic heat will alter after using BIPV, because partial replacement of fossil fuel means to change sensible heat from fossil fuel to solar energy. Different urban microclimate may have various effects on BIPV performance that can be analyzed from two perspectives. Firstly, BIPV performance may decline with the increase of air temperature in densely built areas because many factors in urban areas cause higher temperature than that of the surrounding countryside. Secondly, the change of solar irradiance at the ground level under urban air pollution will lead to the variation of BIPV performance because total solar irradiance usually is reduced and each solar cell has a different spectral response characteristic. The thermal model and performance model of ventilated BIPV according to actual meteorologic data in Tianjin(China) are combined to predict PV temperature and power output in the city of Tianjin. Then, using dynamic building energy model, cooling load is calculated after BIPV installation. The calculation made based in Tianjin shows that it is necessary to pay attention to and further analyze interaction between them to decrease urban pollution, improve BIPV Performance and reduce colling load. Copyright © 2005 by ASME.

Comparative analysis of carbonization drivers in China's megacities

This study investigates the key drivers affecting emission increases in terms of population growth, economic growth, industrial transformation, and energy use in six Chinese megacities: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong. The six cities represent the most-developed regions in China and they have similar per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions as many developed countries. There is an urgent need to quantify the magnitude of each factor in driving the emissions changes in those cities so that a potential bottom-up climate mitigation policy design at the city and sectoral levels can be initiated. We adopt index decomposition analysis and present the results in both additive and multiplicative approaches to reveal the absolute and relative levels of each factor in driving emission changes during 1985-2007. Among all cities, economic effect and energy intensity effect have always been the two dominant factors contributing to the changes in carbon emissions. This study reveals that there are large variations in the ways driving forces contribute to emission levels in different cities and industrial sectors. © 2012 by Yale University.