A Predictive Thermal Habitat Model for Harbor Seals in the Northwest Atlantic

We analyzed projections of current and future ambient temperatures along the eastern United States in relationship to the thermal tolerance of harbor seals in air. Using the earth systems model (HadGEM2-ES) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, which are indicative of two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we were able to examine possible shifts in distribution based on three metrics: current preferences, the thermal limit of juveniles, and the thermal limits of adults. Our analysis focused on average ambient temperatures because harbor seals are least effective at regulating their body temperature in air, making them most susceptible to rising air temperatures in the coming years. Our study focused on the months of May, June, and August from 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) as these are the historic months in which harbor seals are known to annually come ashore to pup, breed, and molt. May, June, and August are also some of the warmest months of the year. We found that breeding colonies along the eastern United States will be limited by the thermal tolerance of juvenile harbor seals in air, while their foraging range will extend as far south as the thermal tolerance of adult harbor seals in air. Our analysis revealed that in 2070, harbor seal pups should be absent from the United States coastline nearing the end of the summer due to exceptionally high air temperatures.

CHARACTERIZATION AND THERMAL-HYDRAULIC MODELING OF ENGINEERED BARRIERS FOR A CANADIAN DEEP GEOLOGICAL REPOSITORY FOR USED NUCLEAR FUEL

Within Canada there are more than 2.5 million bundles of spent nuclear fuel with another approximately 2 million bundles to be generated in the future. Canada, and every country around the world that has taken a decision on management of spent nuclear fuel, has decided on long-term containment and isolation of the fuel within a deep geological repository. At depth, a deep geological repository consists of a network of placement rooms where the bundles will be located within a multi-layered system that incorporates engineered and natural barriers. The barriers will be placed in a complex thermal-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical-biological (THMCB) environment. A large database of material properties for all components in the repository are required to construct representative models. Within the repository, the sealing materials will experience elevated temperatures due to the thermal gradient produced by radioactive decay heat from the waste inside the container. Furthermore, high porewater pressure due to the depth of repository along with possibility of elevated salinity of groundwater would cause the bentonite-based materials to be under transient hydraulic conditions. Therefore it is crucial to characterize the sealing materials over a wide range of thermal-hydraulic conditions. A comprehensive experimental program has been conducted to measure properties (mainly focused on thermal properties) of all sealing materials involved in Mark II concept at plausible thermal-hydraulic conditions. The thermal response of Canada’s concept for a deep geological repository has been modelled using experimentally measured thermal properties. Plausible scenarios are defined and the effects of these scenarios are examined on the container surface temperature as well as the surrounding geosphere to assess whether they meet design criteria for the cases studied. The thermal response shows that if all the materials even being at dried condition, repository still performs acceptably as long as sealing materials remain in contact.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers' consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers’ consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed.

Thermal characterization of microheaters from the dynamic response

Thermal characterization of surface-micromachined microheaters is carried out from their dynamic response to electrothermal excitations. An electrical equivalent circuit model is developed for the thermo-mechanical system. The mechanical parameters are extracted from the frequency response obtained using a laser Doppler vibrometer. The resonant frequencies of the microheaters are measured and compared with FEM simulations. The thermal time constants are obtained from the electrical equivalent model by fitting the model response to the measured frequency response. Microheaters with an active area of 140 µm × 140 µm have been realized on two different layers (poly-1 and poly-2) with two different air gaps (2 µm and 2.75 µm). The effective time constants, combining thermal and mechanical responses, are in the range of 0.13–0.22 ms for heaters on the poly-1 layer and 1.9 µs–0.15 ms for microheaters on the poly-2 layer. The thermal time constants of the microheaters are in the range of a few microseconds, thus making them suitable for sensor applications that need a faster thermal response.

Fabrication and Nonlinear Thermomechanical Analysis of SU8 Thermal Actuator

SU8-based micromechanical structures are widely used as thermal actuators in the development of compliant micromanipulation tools. This paper reports the design, nonlinear thermomechanical analysis, fabrication, and thermal actuation of SU8 actuators. The thermomechanical analysis of the actuator incorporates nonlinear temperature-dependent properties of SU8 polymer to accurately model its thermal response during actuation. The designed SU8 thermal actuators are fabricated using surface micromachining techniques and the electrical interconnects are made to them using flip-chip bonding. The issues due to thermal stress during fabrication are discussed and a novel strategy is proposed to release the thermal stress in the fabricated actuators. Subsequent characterization of the actuator using an optical profilometer reveals excellent thermal response, good repeatability, and low hysteresis. The average deflection is similar to 8.5 mu m for an actuation current of similar to 5 mA. The experimentally obtained deflection profile and the tip deflection at different currents are both shown to be in good agreement with the predictions of the nonlinear thermomechanical model. This underscores the need to consider nonlinearities when modeling the response of SU8 thermal actuators. 2015-0087]

Fractal geometry model for effective thermal conductivity of three-phase porous media

An approximate model, a fractal geometry model, for the effective thermal conductivity of three-phase/unsaturated porous media is proposed based on the thermal-electrical analogy technique and on statistical self-similarity of porous media. The proposed thermal conductivity model is expressed as a function of porosity (related to stage n of Sierpinski carpet), ratio of areas, ratio of component thermal conductivities, and saturation. The recursive algorithm for the thermal conductivity by the proposed model is presented and found to be quite simple. The model predictions are compared with the existing measurements. Good agreement is found between the present model predictions and the existing experimental data. This verifies the validity of the proposed model. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Thermal fatigue analysis of solar panel structure for micro-satellite applications

Thermal fatigue analysis based on 2D finite difference and 3D finite element methods is carried out to study the performance of solar panel structure during micro-satellite life time. Solar panel primary structure consists of honeycomb structure and composite laminates. The 2D finite difference (I-DEAS) model yields predictions of the temperature profile during one orbit. Then, 3D finite element analysis (ANSYS) is applied to predict thermal fatigue damage of solar panel structure. Meshing the whole structure with 2D multi-layer shell elements with sandwich option is not efficient, as it misses thermal response of the honeycomb structure. So we applied a mixed approach between 3D solid and 2D shell elements to model the solar panel structure without the sandwich option.

Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion

A suite of climate model experiments indicates that 20th Century increases in ocean heat content and sea-level ( via thermal expansion) were substantially reduced by the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. The volcanically-induced cooling of the ocean surface is subducted into deeper ocean layers, where it persists for decades. Temporary reductions in ocean heat content associated with the comparable eruptions of El Chichon ( 1982) and Pinatubo ( 1991) were much shorter lived because they occurred relative to a non-stationary background of large, anthropogenically-forced ocean warming. Our results suggest that inclusion of the effects of Krakatoa ( and perhaps even earlier eruptions) is important for reliable simulation of 20th century ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. Inter-model differences in the oceanic thermal response to Krakatoa are large and arise from differences in external forcing, model physics, and experimental design. Systematic experimentation is required to quantify the relative importance of these factors. The next generation of historical forcing experiments may require more careful treatment of pre-industrial volcanic aerosol loadings.

Variability of the ocean heat content during the last millennium - an assessment with the ECHO-g Model

Studies addressing climate variability during the last millennium generally focus on variables with a direct influence on climate variability, like the fast thermal response to varying radiative forcing, or the large-scale changes in atmospheric dynamics (e. g. North Atlantic Oscillation). The ocean responds to these variations by slowly integrating in depth the upper heat flux changes, thus producing a delayed influence on ocean heat content (OHC) that can later impact low frequency SST (sea surface temperature) variability through reemergence processes. In this study, both the externally and internally driven variations of the OHC during the last millennium are investigated using a set of fully coupled simulations with the ECHO-G (coupled climate model ECHAMA4 and ocean model HOPE-G) atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). When compared to observations for the last 55 yr, the model tends to overestimate the global trends and underestimate the decadal OHC variability. Extending the analysis back to the last one thousand years, the main impact of the radiative forcing is an OHC increase at high latitudes, explained to some extent by a reduction in cloud cover and the subsequent increase of short-wave radiation at the surface. This OHC response is dominated by the effect of volcanism in the preindustrial era, and by the fast increase of GHGs during the last 150 yr. Likewise, salient impacts from internal climate variability are observed at regional scales. For instance, upper temperature in the equatorial Pacific is controlled by ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variability from interannual to multidecadal timescales. Also, both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate intermittently the interdecadal OHC variability in the North Pacific and Mid Atlantic, respectively. The NAO, through its influence on North Atlantic surface heat fluxes and convection, also plays an important role on the OHC at multiple timescales, leading first to a cooling in the Labrador and Irminger seas, and later on to a North Atlantic warming, associated with a delayed impact on the AMO.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Defining expected cost for the air conditioning to avoid a price spike of electricity market under DSR model

This work presents a demand side response model (DSR) which assists small electricity consumers, through an aggregator, exposed to the market price to proactively mitigate price and peak impact on the electrical system. The proposed model allows consumers to manage air-conditioning when as a function of possible price spikes. The main contribution of this research is to demonstrate how consumers can minimise the total expected cost by optimising air-conditioning to account for occurrences of a price spike in the electricity market. This model investigates how pre-cooling method can be used to minimise energy costs when there is a substantial risk of an electricity price spike. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics during hot days on weekdays in the period 2011 to 2012.

Pressure state response-based method for evaluating social benefits from smart grid development

In this paper, the inherent mechanism of social benefits associated with smart grid development is examined based on the pressure state response (PSR) model from resource economics. The emerging types of technology brought up by smart grid development are regarded as pressures. The improvements of the performance and efficiency of power system operation, such as the enhanced capability of accommodating renewable energy generation, are regarded as states. The effects of smart grid development on society are regarded as responses. Then, a novel method for evaluating social benefits from smart grid development is presented. Finally, the social benefits from smart grid development in a province in northwest China are carried out by using the developed evaluation system, and reasonable evaluation results are attained.