An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: the auditors Rrgistered with the portuguese securities market commission

One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (v.g. “probable”) when establishing the recognition and disclosure criteria for accounting elements, they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research we carried out on the interpretation of “in context” verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission, the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Our results provide support for the hypothesis that culture affects the CMVM registered auditors’ interpretation of verbal probability expressions through its influence on the accounting value (or attitude) of conservatism. Our results also suggest that there are significant differences in their interpretation of the term “probable”, which is consistent with literature in general. Since “probable” is the most frequent verbal probability expression used in the IAS/IFRS, this may have a negative impact on financial statements comparability.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 1)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 2)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS), which allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: Jump-diffusion processes and option pricing

In this paper we study the dynamic behavior of the term structureof Interbank interest rates and the pricing of options on interest ratesensitive securities. We posit a generalized single factor model withjumps to take into account external influences in the market. Daily datais used to test for jump effects. Qualitative examination of the linkagebetween Monetary Authorities' interventions and jumps are studied. Pricingresults suggests a systematic underpricing in bonds and call options ifthe jumps component is not included. However, the pricing of put optionson bonds presents indeterminacies.

A dilution cost approach to financial intermediation and securities markets

This paper proposes a model of financial markets and corporate finance,with asymmetric information and no taxes, where equity issues, Bankdebt and Bond financing may all co-exist in equilibrium. The paperemphasizes the relationship Banking aspect of financial intermediation:firms turn to banks as a source of investment mainly because banks aregood at helping them through times of financial distress. The debtrestructuring service that banks may offer, however, is costly. Therefore,the firms which do not expect to be financially distressed prefer toobtain a cheaper market source of funding through bond or equity issues.This explains why bank lending and bond financing may co-exist inequilibrium. The reason why firms or banks also issue equity in our modelis simply to avoid bankruptcy. Banks have the additional motive that theyneed to satisfy minimum capital adequacy requeriments. Several types ofequilibria are possible, one of which has all the main characteristics ofa "credit crunch". This multiplicity implies that the channels of monetarypolicy may depend on the type of equilibrium that prevails, leadingsometimes to support a "credit view" and other times the classical "moneyview".

Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman Annual Report 2005, January 2006.

The State Long-Term Care Ombudsman program operates as a unit within the Office of Elder Rights at Iowa Department of Elder Affairs. Duties of all long-term care ombudsmen are mandated by the Older Americans Act. This office serves people living in nursing facilities, residential care facilities, elder group homes and assisted living programs. Cases and complaints remain to be this office’s top priority. Facility closures take a tremendous amount of time, and with 1 Long-Term Care Ombudsman per 10,500 beds this office struggles to meet all of the mandates of the Older Americans Act.

Serial defaults, serial profits: Returns to sovereign lending in Habsburg Spain, 1566-1600

Philip II of Spain accumulated debts equivalent to 60% of GDP. He also defaulted four times onhis short-term loans, thus becoming the first serial defaulter in history. Contrary to a commonview in the literature, we show that lending to the king was profitable even under worst-casescenario assumptions. Lenders maintained long-term relationships with the crown. Lossessustained during defaults were more than compensated by profits in normal times. Defaultswere not catastrophic events. In effect, short-term lending acted as an insurance mechanism,allowing the king to reduce his payments in harsh times in exchange for paying a premium intranquil periods. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LONG-TERM CARE Ombudsman, November 2014

Through advocacy, self-empowerment, and education by the Long-Term Care Ombudsman Program, each resident or tenant in a long-term care facility will be treated with dignity and respect and will have his or her rights honored.

Long-term Care Payment Options

As the population ages, many of us will be faced with the prospect of moving either ourselves or a loved one into a long-term care setting (nursing home, assisted living facility or elder group home). Whether the decision comes up suddenly following a hospitalization or gradually as care needs evolve, the question of how to pay for long-term care is certain to arise. Some people mistakenly believe that Medicare will pay for their long-term care stay, but while Medicare will pay for hospital costs and skilled nursing facility stays, it does not pay for long-term care. Rather, possible payment options for long-term care include private pay, Medicaid or long-term care insurance or veterans benefits.

Sexuality Expression in Long-Term Care

By federal law, individuals residing in long-term care are afforded multiple rights, many of which are relevant to sexuality. These rights include but are not limited to: the rights to privacy, confidentiality, dignity and respect, the right to make independent choices, and the right to choose visitors and meet in a private location. The Office of the State Long-Term Care Ombudsman strives to preserve these rights by promoting attitudes of awareness, acceptance, and respect of sexual diversity. Though outcomes to sexually-related situations vary innumerably, as each is different and must be considered independently, the OSLTCO believes a multidisciplinary effort is necessary to develop a thoughtful process from which to draw and support conclusions. It is not the responsibility of the long-term care facility or assisted living program (or a single staff member) to solely determine whether a resident/tenant should or should not be sexually expressive.

Economic Impact of Identity Theft in India: Lessons from Western Countries

In this computerized, globalised and internet world our computer collects various types of information’s about every human being and stores them in files secreted deep on its hard drive. Files like cache, browser history and other temporary Internet files can be used to store sensitive information like logins and passwords, names addresses, and even credit card numbers. Now, a hacker can get at this information by wrong means and share with someone else or can install some nasty software on your computer that will extract your sensitive and secret information. Identity Theft posses a very serious problem to everyone today. If you have a driver’s license, a bank account, a computer, ration card number, PAN card number, ATM card or simply a social security number you are more than at risk, you are a target. Whether you are new to the idea of ID Theft, or you have some unanswered questions, we’ve compiled a quick refresher list below that should bring you up to speed. Identity theft is a term used to refer to fraud that involves pretending to be someone else in order to steal money or get other benefits. Identity theft is a serious crime, which is increasing at tremendous rate all over the world after the Internet evolution. There is widespread agreement that identity theft causes financial damage to consumers, lending institutions, retail establishments, and the economy as a whole. Surprisingly, there is little good public information available about the scope of the crime and the actual damages it inflicts. Accounts of identity theft in recent mass media and in film or literature have centered on the exploits of 'hackers' - variously lauded or reviled - who are depicted as cleverly subverting corporate firewalls or other data protection defenses to gain unauthorized access to credit card details, personnel records and other information. Reality is more complicated, with electronic identity fraud taking a range of forms. The impact of those forms is not necessarily quantifiable as a financial loss; it can involve intangible damage to reputation, time spent dealing with disinformation and exclusion from particular services because a stolen name has been used improperly. Overall we can consider electronic networks as an enabler for identity theft, with the thief for example gaining information online for action offline and the basis for theft or other injury online. As Fisher pointed out "These new forms of hightech identity and securities fraud pose serious risks to investors and brokerage firms across the globe," I am a victim of identity theft. Being a victim of identity theft I felt the need for creating an awareness among the computer and internet users particularly youngsters in India. Nearly 70 per cent of Indian‘s population are living in villages. Government of India already started providing computer and internet facilities even to the remote villages through various rural development and rural upliftment programmes. Highly educated people, established companies, world famous financial institutions are becoming victim of identity theft. The question here is how vulnerable the illiterate and innocent rural people are if they suddenly exposed to a new device through which some one can extract and exploit their personal data without their knowledge? In this research work an attempt has been made to bring out the real problems associated with Identity theft in developed countries from an economist point of view.

Private long-term investment in uncertain times. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/23, December 2012

The economic and financial crisis in Europe is affecting the financing of long-term infrastructure investment. There are multiple clearly identifiable channels: reduced demand for long-term investment, a tightening prudential framework for lending, upward adjustment of risk perception, complex transition of the financial system, and increasing macroeconomic, sovereign and regulatory risk. Some of the identified channels are potentially dangerous spillovers from the crisis that entail the risk of a downward spiral (eg increasing regulatory risk), while others are efficient market responses (eg reduced investment demand, correction of pricing of risk). Consequently, public policy instruments should not address the accessibility of long-term finance per se, but should explicitly target the critical channels.

Understanding the long term success of UK construction firms: the extent and role of 'hidden' corporate social responsibility

The construction sector is often described as lagging behind other major industries. At first this appears fair when considering the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR). It is argued that CSR is ill-defined, with firms struggling to make sense of and engage with it. Literature suggests that the short-termism view of construction firms renders the long-term, triple-bottom-line principle of CSR untenable. This seems to be borne out by literature indicating that construction firms typically adopt a compliance-based approach to CSR instead of discretionary CSR which is regarded as adding most value to firms and benefiting the broadest group of stakeholders. However, this research conducted in the UK using a regional construction firm offers a counter argument whereby discretionary CSR approaches are well embedded and enacted within the firms’ business operations even though they are not formally articulated as CSR strategies and thus remain 'hidden'. This raises questions in the current CSR debate. First, is ‘hidden’ CSR relevant to the long term success of construction firms? and to what extent do these firms need to reinvent themselves to formally take advantage of the CSR agenda?

RACORO extended-term, aircraft observations of boundary-layer clouds

A first-of-a-kind, extended-term cloud aircraft campaign was conducted to obtain an in-situ statistical characterization of continental boundary-layer clouds needed to investigate cloud processes and refine retrieval algorithms. Coordinated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), the Routine AAF Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign operated over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 22 January to 30 June 2009, collecting 260 h of data during 59 research flights. A comprehensive payload aboard the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft measured cloud microphysics, solar and thermal radiation, physical aerosol properties, and atmospheric state parameters. Proximity to the SGP's extensive complement of surface measurements provides ancillary data that supports modeling studies and facilitates evaluation of a variety of surface retrieval algorithms. The five-month duration enabled sampling a range of conditions associated with the seasonal transition from winter to summer. Although about two-thirds of the cloud flights occurred in May and June, boundary-layer cloud fields were sampled under a variety of environmental and aerosol conditions, with about 77% of the flights occurring in cumulus and stratocumulus. Preliminary analyses illustrate use of these data to analyze cloud-aerosol relationships, characterize the horizontal variability of cloud radiative impacts, and evaluate surface-based retrievals. We discuss how an extended-term campaign requires a simplified operating paradigm that is different from that used for typical, short-term, intensive aircraft field programs.