Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: a quantile autoregression approach

In this paper we investigate fiscal sustainability by using a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. We propose a novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones, which allows us to identify various trajectories of public debt that are compatible with fiscal sustainability. We use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run fiscal sustainability. We make out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling and show how it could be used by Policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. We illustrate the applicability of our results using Brazilian data.

Enforcing international financial standards in Brazil: limits and possibilities for adoption of IOSCO principles

Foreign capital and institutional investors play a key role in the Brazilian capital and financial markets. Internationally promoted regulatory patterns, especially IOSCO principles, have been increasingly influencing administrative rule making by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) as well as the adoption of transnational rules in Brazil by means of self-regulatory activity. Even though there is a certain level of convergence of market regulatory standards at the transnational level, implementation and enforcement of rules remains essentially domestic. We analyze two case studies regarding the transposition of international standards into the Brazilian legal system, which illustrate this tension between the transnational and domestic dimensions of financial markets regulation. The first case concerns a CVM rule on disclosure of executive compensation and the its interpretation by local courts. The second case refers to the adoption of suitability rules.

Feeding habits of the blue shark (Prionace glauca) off the coast of Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Growth of the hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus (Bosc, 1802) (Crustacea, Anomura, Diogenidae) at São Vicente, São Paulo, Brazil

O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar o crescimento de machos e fêmeas do ermitão Clibanarius vittatus (Bosc, 1802), da região de São Vicente, São Paulo, Brasil. Foram realizadas coletas mensais de maio/2001 a abril/2003, na Praia dos Pescadores em São Vicente. Os 2.501 animais capturados foram identificados, determinados quanto ao sexo e mensurados quanto ao seu comprimento de escudo cefalotorácico (CEC). Para o estudo sazonal do crescimento, a população foi dividida em classes de tamanho de 5mm de (CEC), e analisada pelo método de Bertalanffy, com o auxílio do software Fisat II. Foram obtidos 703 indivíduos machos e 1.798 fêmeas, com média de tamanho de 8.94±1.80 e 6.61±1.13mm, respectivamente. Constatou-se um padrão de crescimento sazonal, com machos atingindo um tamanho assintótico (14.92mm) superior ao das fêmeas (13.85mm), além de iniciarem o processo de crescimento aproximadamente cinco meses antes destas. Desta forma, é provável que este seja um padrão que auxilia na diminuição da disputa intra-específica por conchas, uma vez que os machos atingiram maior tamanho e estariam disponibilizando conchas menores para as fêmeas.

The history of the introduction of the giant river prawn, Macrobrachium cf. rosenbergii (Decapoda, Palaemonidae), in Brazil: new insights from molecular data

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reproductive migration and population dynamics of the blue crab Callinectes danae in an estuary in southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Molecular and serological detection of Theileria equi and Babesia caballi in donkeys (Equus asinus) in Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

First report of Trypanosoma vivax outbreak in dairy cattle in São Paulo state, Brazil

Esta é a primeira descrição de um surto de Trypanosomavivax ocorrido no Estado de São Paulo, no município de Lins. Animais acometidos apresentaram febre, icterícia, diminuição da produção de leite, perda de peso, diarreia profusa, abortos, anemia, leucocitose e hiperfibrigenemia. Foram registrados 31 óbitos de vacas e bezerros em 1.080 bovinos no total. Três vacas apresentaram sintomatologia nervosa, como dismetria, ataxia e fraqueza muscular, além de ptialismo, aumento de linfonodos e edema submandibular. Hemoparasitas flagelados foram observados em esfregaços sanguíneos, e a espécie de tripanossomo foi diagnosticada como T.vivax por PCR. A cepa de T. vivax mostrou ser resistente ao tratamento com aceturato de diaminozeno e a infecção disseminou rapidamente no rebanho. Pelo ELISA, observou-se que 98,36% (599) das amostras de soro colhidas apresentaram títulos positivos para IgG anti-T.vivax. O surto ocorreu em condições de baixa precipitação pluviométrica, fato que indica que outros fatores estavam envolvidos na ocorrência desse surto, como a ausência de tabanídeos e a grande presença de Haematobia irritans e Stomoxys calcitrans, cujo aumento populacional pode ser devido ao uso de resíduos de usinas de açúcar e álcool nos canaviais que circundavam a granja leiteira.

Identification of Landslide Scars in the Region of the Serra do Mar, São Paulo State, Brazil, Using Digital Image Processing and Spatial Analysis Tools

The objective of the present study, developed in a mountainous region in Brazil where many landslides occur, is to present a method for detecting landslide scars that couples image processing techniques with spatial analysis tools. An IKONOS image was initially segmented, and then classified through a Batthacharrya classifier, with an acceptance limit of 99%, resulting in 216 polygons identified with a spectral response similar to landslide scars. After making use of some spatial analysis tools that took into account a susceptibility map, a map of local drainage channels and highways, and the maximum expected size of scars in the study area, some features misinterpreted as scars were excluded. The 43 resulting features were then compared with visually interpreted landslide scars and field observations. The proposed method can be reproduced and enhanced by adding filtering criteria and was able to find new scars on the image, with a final error rate of 2.3%.

Stomach contents and notes on the reproduction of the Onefin Skate Gurgesiella dorsalifera (Chondrichthyes: Rajidae) off Southern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Population ecology of the planktonic shrimp Lucifer faxoni Borradaile, 1915 (Crustacea, Sergestoidea, Luciferidae) of the southeastern coast of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sedimentation rates in the Corumbatai River basin, Brazil, derived from Pb-210 measurements

Activity profiles of excess Pb-210 measured in four sediment cores from the Corumbatai River basin, São Paulo State, Brazil, provided an opportunity to evaluate sedimentation rates that are helpful for defining appropriate management strategies for the hydrological resources in the basin. This is because Rio Claro city and other municipalities make extensive use of surface waters for drinking water supply. The radiochemical analysis of the sediment cores yielded apparent sediment mass accumulation rates of between 406 and 1014 mg cm(-2) year(-1) for secondary drainage lines, whereas an intermediate value of 546 mg cm(-2) year(-1) was found in the Corumbatai River, the main drainage system of the studied area. These values provided estimates of average linear sedimentation rates of between 3.1 and 16.2 mm year(-1) that are compatible with field evidence, with the highest value corresponding with an area characterized by accumulation of sediment.