Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Safety climate and relational conflict in the eyes of team members : examining the role of need for closure

This study was aimed at examining the safety climate and relational conflict within teams at the individual level. A sample of 372 respondents, divided into 50 teams, was used to test our hypothesis. It was proposed - and discovered - that team members’ individual differences in need for closure mitigated the negative relationship between perceptions of team safety climate and team relational conflict. The implications of our findings and the study’s limitations are discussed.

Buying a sponsor's brand : the role of affective commitment to the sponsored team

Sponsorship is increasingly important in a firm's communication mix. Research to date has focused on the impact of sponsorship on brand awareness and its subsequent consequences for image congruency and consumer attitudes towards sponsors' brands. A lesser studied area is the effect of sponsorship on consumers' purchase intentions and behaviours. We argue that existing models of sponsorship driven purchase behaviour fail to account for affective commitment, which mediates relationship between affiliation with the team and social identification with the team. We propose a modified framework describing the effect of sponsorship on purchase intentions in the context of low and high performing sports teams. The framework is tested using structural equations modelling; employing PLS estimation and data collected via online survey of AFL chat room participants. Results confirm the role of affective commitment in sport sponsorship purchase intentions and indicate that team success has a significant influence on fans' purchase behaviours.

Achieving cooperation in a distributed multi-robot team

DMAPS (Distributed Multi-Agent Planning System) is a planning system developed for distributed multi-robot teams based on MAPS (Multi-Agent Planning System). MAPS assumes that each agent has the same global view of the environment in order to determine the most suitable actions. This assumption fails when perception is local to the agents: each agent has only a partial and unique view of the environment. DMAPS addresses this problem by creating a probabilistic global view on each agent by fusing the perceptual information from each robot. The experimental results on consuming tasks show that while the probabilistic global view is not identical on each robot, the shared view is still effective in increasing performance of the team.

A global vision system for a robot soccer team

This paper describes the real time global vision system for the robot soccer team the RoboRoos. It has a highly optimised pipeline that includes thresholding, segmenting, colour normalising, object recognition and perspective and lens correction. It has a fast ‘paint’ colour calibration system that can calibrate in any face of the YUV or HSI cube. It also autonomously selects both an appropriate camera gain and colour gains robot regions across the field to achieve colour uniformity. Camera geometry calibration is performed automatically from selection of keypoints on the field. The system achieves a position accuracy of better than 15mm over a 4m × 5.5m field, and orientation accuracy to within 1°. It processes 614 × 480 pixels at 60Hz on a 2.0GHz Pentium 4 microprocessor.

Probabilistic world modeling for distributed team planning

This paper describes an application of decoupled probabilistic world modeling to achieve team planning. The research is based on the principle that the action selection mechanism of a member in a robot team can select an effective action if a global world model is available to all team members. In the real world, the sensors are imprecise, and are individual to each robot, hence providing each robot a partial and unique view about the environment. We address this problem by creating a probabilistic global view on each agent by combining the perceptual information from each robot. This probabilistic view forms the basis for selecting actions to achieve the team goal in a dynamic environment. Experiments have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of this principle using custom-built robots for real world performance, in addition, to extensive simulation results. The results show an improvement in team effectiveness when using probabilistic world modeling based on perception sharing for team planning.

Team role preference and online role play

Role play approaches have been used in online environments in an effort to create a mix of contested ideas and to promote participant engagement. While it is recognised that there is an aspect of ‘fun’ associated with role play there is a need to understand role assignment more rigorously than simply levels of reported participation and enjoyment. It is the contention of this paper that individuals are unlikely to be able to authentically play a role and, that in fact, there may be little purpose to contrived roles. Additionally, the literature has widely reported that personality factors, such as introversion and extroversion continue to be of significance in the way that individuals contribute in online contexts. The findings in the study reported in this paper confirm that introversion and extroversion do, indeed, play a role in the way individuals contribute in online environments. Thus, this paper argues that an active consideration needs to be given to individuals preferred (or natural) way of working even where use is made of online role play.

Building a software architecture for a human-robot team using the ORCA framework

This paper considers the problem of building a software architecture for a human-robot team. The objective of the team is to build a multi-attribute map of the world by performing information fusion. A decentralized approach to information fusion is adopted to achieve the system properties of scalability and survivability. Decentralization imposes constraints on the design of the architecture and its implementation. We show how a Component-Based Software Engineering approach can address these constraints. The architecture is implemented using Orca – a component-based software framework for robotic systems. Experimental results from a deployed system comprised of an unmanned air vehicle, a ground vehicle, and two human operators are presented. A section on the lessons learned is included which may be applicable to other distributed systems with complex algorithms. We also compare Orca to the Player software framework in the context of distributed systems.

Improving team dynamics and innovation : the “Aspect Design” approach applied to interaction design

Interaction Design is a fast developing branch of Industrial Design. The availability of cheap microprocessors and sensor electronics allow interactions between people and products that were until recently impossible. This has added additional layers of complexity to the design process. Novice designers find it difficult to effectively juggle these complexities and typically tend to focus on one aspect at a time. They also tend to take a linear, step-by-step approach to the design process in contrast to expert designers who pursue “parallel lines of thought” whilst simultaneously co-evolving both problem and solution. (Lawson, 1993) This paper explores an approach that encourages designers (in this case novice designers) to take a parallel rather than linear approach to the design process. It also addresses the problem of social loafing that tends to occur in team activities.

Networks as a novel tool for studying team ball sports as complex social systems

This paper describes and evaluates the novel utility of network methods for understanding human interpersonal interactions within social neurobiological systems such as sports teams. We show how collective system networks are supported by the sum of interpersonal interactions that emerge from the activity of system agents (such as players in a sports team). To test this idea we trialled the methodology in analyses of intra-team collective behaviours in the team sport of water polo. We observed that the number of interactions between team members resulted in varied intra-team coordination patterns of play, differentiating between successful and unsuccessful performance outcomes. Future research on small-world networks methodologies needs to formalize measures of node connections in analyses of collective behaviours in sports teams, to verify whether a high frequency of interactions is needed between players in order to achieve competitive performance outcomes.

Variables governing the dynamics of attacker-defender systems in team sport

This project was a step forward in the examination and identification of key variables on the perception, decision making and action of team sport athletes through theoretical insights provided by the ecological dynamics perspective. The methodology drew on experiential knowledge of elite coaches to drive further empirical investigation into the specific task, environmental and personal constraints that shape the behaviour of athletes in specific performance contexts. The thesis has provided an effective rationale for further investigation into the emergent perception, decision making and action demanded of athletes in these unpredictable, fluent, fast-paced environments.