Kazakhstan: the regional success story; Tajikistan: a trial period; Uzbekistan: the major source of instability in Central Asia? OSW Study 15/2004

Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan can boast economic development like no other country in Central Asia. In contrast to other countries of the region, which have rich natural resources, Kazakhstan has managed to use its economic potential in a way that yields concrete benefits now and, at the same time, creates prospects for further sustainable economic growth. Tajikistan: Tajikistan in its present state has been built on the civil war experiences and provisions of the peace accords signed in 1997. These have had a great impact on the present form of the state, its political scene and power mechanisms. President Emomali Rakhmonov is the central figure in the state. The political system, which he has cocreated, is based on - unique in this region - political pluralism (the existence of the Islamic party), decentralisation (far-going independence of the regions and relatively limited potential of the central structures) and compromise as the basic way of resolving conflicts. Such a system has so far guaranteed stabilisation and normalisation of the country. Uzbekistan: With its geographic location, potential, ambitions and political priorities, Uzbekistan could play a leading role in Central Asia. The international community has perceived the country as the pillar of stability in the region. This perception was further reinforced after 11th September 2001 and was certainly among the factors that inspired the United States to start closer political and military cooperation with Tashkent. The administration in Washington had expected that closer contacts might galvanise political, economic and social change in Uzbekistan, thus reinforcing positive trends in other countries of the region as well. But the relations between Washington and Tashkent are in crisis (which the United States will certainly try to overcome), and we have seen rapprochement between Uzbekistan and Russia and China.

Tajikistan: a chronic stagnation. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 200/15.03.2016

Since gaining its independence Tajikistan has faced severe political, economic and social problems. The last several months has seen a clear increase in their intensity. This is in part caused by the deteriorating economic situation in Russia and the significant fall of remittances from the Tajik labour migrants in Russia, as well as by President Emomali Rahmon’s rising authoritarianism. Despite this intensification, qualitatively speaking Tajikistan’s problems have been unchanged for years. Besides the state’s structural weakness, the main cause is the ongoing neo-colonial dependence on Russia, which effectively limits Dushanbe’s room for political manoeuvre and keep Tajikistan in Russia’s sphere of control. This dependence on the one hand protects the country from collapsing, but on the other it precludes the development of the state, resulting in Tajikistan’s enduring stagnation. Similar processes also take place in other countries of post-Soviet Central Asia. However, in the case of Tajikistan the dependence and stagnation it causes are the strongest and their mechanisms most easily observed.

7.0Ma以来中国黄土粉尘源区的化学风化历史研究-Sr同位素比值的证据

To investigate the changes in the chemical weathering intensity of dust source region in Asia continent, ~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr ratios of acid-washed residues from the loess deposits in China and Tajikistan were analyzed, respectively. The results and conclusions are listed as below. 1. The oscillation of ~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr ratios of acid-insoluble residues in the Chinese Loess Plateau was mainly attributed to the chemical weathering intensity of the source region and the grain size. Counteracted the effect of particle size, the calibrated 87Sr/S6Sr ratio can be used as a proxy for the chemical weathering intensity of the source region. 2. The Sr/ Sr ratios of red clay-loess sequence from the Loess Plateau indicate that the chemical weathering intensity of the dust source region between 7.0 and 2.6 Ma is stronger than that in the Quaternary period. This also suggests a general decline in chemical weathering intensity of the source region from 2.6 Ma to the present. Such pattern is more remarkable since 1.0 Ma BP. 3. The ~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr ratios of the Tajik loess during 0.8-1.8 Ma is much more higher than those from 0.8 Ma to the present. This implies that the chemical weathering intensity of the source region in Central Asia is much stronger during 0.8-1.8 Ma than the period since 0.8 Ma. 4. The record of Sr isotope ratios from both sections shows an accelerating course of aridity of the Asian dust source region over the Quaternary period.

Análisis de las tensiones geopolíticas entre Kirguistán y Uzbekistán por el Valle de Fergana y sus recursos energéticos durante el periodo 2001-2010

Las tensiones geopolíticas entre Kirguistán y Uzbekistán por el Valle de Fergana durante el periodo 2001-2010 a partir de un análisis histórico de la formación de la población y la influencia de los diferentes imperios en la región. Adicionalmente, los aspectos relativos a la importancia de los recursos energéticos en el Valle de Fergana como la configuración de las tensiones generadas entre estos dos países, haciendo énfasis en el conflicto étnico latente que se ha generado en la zona. De se utilizarán la teoría constructivista de Alexander Wendt y la teoría de la geopolítica de Yves Lacoste.

Análisis de la Política Exterior Rusa en materia energética, comercial y militar hacia la República de Moldavia (Período 2000-2010)

Rusia sufrió grandes cambios tras la desintegración de la URSS en 1991. No obstante, con la llegada de Vladimir Putin al poder, los intereses geoestratégicos de Rusia sobre el espacio postsoviético revivieron con nuevo ímpetu debido a una mayor cantidad de recursos a disposición del Estado. La República de Moldavia es un claro ejemplo del resurgir de la política exterior rusa hacia el espacio postsoviético, siendo incluso, una región clave en la lucha de la Federación Rusa por recuperar su zona de influencia.