Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Trajectory of posttraumatic stress disorder caused by myocardial infarction: a two-year follow-up study

OBJECTIVE: A substantial proportion of patients develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) following myocardial infarction (MI). Previous research on the trajectory over time of PTSD in post-MI patients is scant and refers to self-rated posttraumatic symptoms. The aim of this study was to investigate the longitudinal course of an interviewer-rated diagnosis of PTSD and PTSD symptom severity following MI. METHODS: Study participants were 40 patients (78% men, mean age 54 +/- 8 years) who were diagnosed with PTSD using the Clinician-administered PTSD Scale (CAPS) after an average of 5 +/- 4 months (range 2-16 months) following an index MI. After a mean follow-up of 26 +/- 6 months (range 12-36 months), 24 patients underwent a second diagnostic interview. RESULTS: Two-thirds of patients (n = 16) still qualified for a diagnosis of PTSD at follow-up. In all 24 patients, total PTSD symptoms (p = 0.001), re-experiencing symptoms (p < 0.001), avoidance symptoms (p = 0.015), and, with borderline significance, hyperarousal symptoms (p < 0.06) had all decreased over time. However, in the subgroup of the 16 patients who had retained PTSD diagnostic status at follow-up, symptoms of avoidance (p = 0.23) and of hyperarousal (p = 0.48) showed no longitudinal decline. Longer duration of follow-up was associated with a greater decrease in avoidance symptoms (p = 0.029) and, with borderline significance, in re-experiencing symptoms (p < 0.07) across all patients. CONCLUSION: Although PTSD symptomatology waned over time and in relation to longer follow-up, two-thirds of patients still qualified for a diagnosis of PTSD 2 years after the initial diagnosis. In post-MI patients, clinical PTSD is a considerably persistent condition.

Circumferential distribution of the neointima at six-month and two-year follow-up after a bioresorbable vascular scaffold implantation: a substudy of the ABSORB Cohort B Clinical Trial

Aims: To investigate the extent and the circumferential distribution of the neointima tissue developed following an Absorb bioresorbable vascular scaffold (BVS) implantation. Methods and results: Twenty-three patients who were treated with the Absorb BVS and had optical coherence tomographic examination after scaffold implantation, at six-month and at two-year follow-up, were included in the current analysis. The lumen and the scaffold borders were detected and the circumferential thickness of the neointima was measured at one degree intervals. The symmetry of the neointima was defined as: minimum/maximum thickness. The lumen area was decreased at six months compared to baseline but it did not change between six-month and two-year follow-up (baseline: 7.49 [6.13-8.00] mm2, six months: 6.31 (4.75-7.06) mm2, two years: 6.01 [4.67-7.11] mm2, p=0.373). However, the mean neointima thickness (six months: 189 [173-229] μm, two years: 258 [222-283] μm, p<0.0001) and the symmetry index of the neointima (six months: 0.06 [0.02-0.09], two years: 0.27 [0.24-0.36], p<0.0001) were increased at two years. Full circumferential coverage of the vessel wall by neointima tissue was seen in 91% of the studied frames at two years. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that after an Absorb BVS implantation neointima tissue develops that covers almost the whole circumference of the vessel wall. In contrast to the metallic stents, the neointima tissue does not compromise the luminal dimensions. Further research is required to evaluate the neointimal characteristics and assess the potential value of the device in passivating high-risk plaques.

Two Carp leaping up a Waterfall

Katsushika Hokusai; 1 ft. 8 35/64 in.x 9 9/64 in.; woodcut on paper

Effect of initial disturbance amplitude in gravity affected jet break-up

The initial disturbance amplitude has an effect on stretching jets that is not observed for capillary jet instability where gravitational acceleration is not significant. For inviscid and viscous fluids, gravity diminishes the effect that the initial amplitude has on jet length and its ability to prevent satellite formation. In stretching jets, not only the dimensionless frequency of the disturbance but also its initial amplitude must be known to properly study their satellite forming nature. Indirect methods of relating the applied disturbance energy to an initial velocity perturbation are not simple when the gravity parameter G is changing. When G A 0, the optimum disturbance frequency Omega(opt) and the initial disturbance amplitude are related, with Omega(opt) proportional to f (G) x In(1 /epsilon(nu)). Results from numerical simulations and experiments are presented here. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gondwana break-up related magmatism in the Falkland Islands

Peer reviewed

Gondwana break-up related magmatism in the Falkland Islands

Peer reviewed

Legislative Accountability: should Brazil break up its big Electoral Districts? = Accountability legislativa: o Brasil deveria fragmentar suas circunscrições eleitorais maiores?

This paper proposes that Brazil could improve the political accountability by breaking up many of the statewide districts it uses to elect its deputies into smaller districts, each electing fewer deputies. The central argument is that districts that elect low-to-moderate numbers of legislators make it possible to optimize the well-known trade-off between inclusive representation and accountable government.

Two-Year Outcome of Partial Lacrimal Punctal Occlusion in the Management of Dry Eye Related to Sjogren Syndrome

Purpose: To analyze the influence of thermal partial punctal occlusion on the ocular surface of dry eye related to Sjogren syndrome. Material and Methods: Thirty-seven eyes of 19 patients (3 male and 16 female; 49.11 +/- 14.33 years old) with keratoconjunctivitis sicca were enrolled in this study. Superior and inferior partial occlusion were performed in both eyes under topical anesthesia using thermal cautery with a sterile tip to obtain lacrimal punctum smaller than 0.5 mm. Schirmer I, break-up-time, diameter of lacrimal puncta, corneal fluorescein, and rose Bengal staining scores were analyzed before and after 24 weeks and after 24 months of the procedure. All measurements were performed under controlled climate. Results: The average lacrimal punctum diameter before the procedure was 0.65 +/- 0.134 mm. All lacrimal puncta were successfully reduced to less than 0.5 mm after 4 weeks of the procedure. The average Schirmer I test values improved statistically after 24 weeks and maintained stable after 24 months. Average break-up-time, rose Bengal, and fluorescein staining score values improved statistically after 24 weeks and improved even more after 24 months. Average Schirmer I test, break-up-time, rose Bengal, and fluorescein staining scores showed significant improvement (p < 0.0001) after 24 months of partial thermal punctal occlusion. Conclusion: Our study showed that reducing the punctum diameter to 0.5 mm can improve vital staining scores, break-up-time, and Schirmer I test in dry eye related to Sjogren syndrome.

Electron and neutron electric dipole moment in the 3-3-1 model with heavy leptons

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)