903 resultados para Synthetic Control Method


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Control of chaotic instability in a simplified model of a spinning spacecraft with dissipation is achieved using an algorithm derived using Lyapunov's second method. The control method is implemented on a realistic spacecraft parameter configuration which has been found to exhibit chaotic instability for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft. Such a torque, may arise in practice from an unbalanced rotor or from vibrations in appendages. Numerical simulations are performed and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents and bifurcation diagrams. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative method to estimate treatment e ects in comparative case studies. Abadie et al. [2010] and Abadie et al. [2015] argue that one of the advantages of the SC method is that it imposes a data-driven process to select the comparison units, providing more transparency and less discretionary power to the researcher. However, an important limitation of the SC method is that it does not provide clear guidance on the choice of predictor variables used to estimate the SC weights. We show that such lack of speci c guidances provides signi cant opportunities for the researcher to search for speci cations with statistically signi cant results, undermining one of the main advantages of the method. Considering six alternative speci cations commonly used in SC applications, we calculate in Monte Carlo simulations the probability of nding a statistically signi cant result at 5% in at least one speci cation. We nd that this probability can be as high as 13% (23% for a 10% signi cance test) when there are 12 pre-intervention periods and decay slowly with the number of pre-intervention periods. With 230 pre-intervention periods, this probability is still around 10% (18% for a 10% signi cance test). We show that the speci cation that uses the average pre-treatment outcome values to estimate the weights performed particularly bad in our simulations. However, the speci cation-searching problem remains relevant even when we do not consider this speci cation. We also show that this speci cation-searching problem is relevant in simulations with real datasets looking at placebo interventions in the Current Population Survey (CPS). In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a criterion to select among SC di erent speci cations based on the prediction error of each speci cations in placebo estimations

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Control of chaotic instability in a rotating multibody system in the form of a dual-spin spacecraft with an axial nutational damper is achieved using an algorithm derived using energy methods. The control method is implemented on two realistic spacecraft parameter configurations which have been found to exhibit chaotic instability when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies. Such a torque, in practice, may arise under malfunction of the control system or from an unbalanced rotor. Chaotic instabilities arising from these torques could introduce uncertainties and irregularities into a spacecraft's attitude and consequently impair pointing accuracy. The control method is formulated from nutational stability results derived using an energy sink approximation for a dual-spin spacecraft with an asymmetric platform and axisymmetric rotor. The effectiveness of the control method is shown numerically and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents and Bifurcation diagrams.

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This paper presents a predictive optimal matrix converter controller for a flywheel energy storage system used as Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR). The flywheel energy storage device is based on a steel seamless tube mounted as a vertical axis flywheel to store kinetic energy. The motor/generator is a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine driven by the AC-AC Matrix Converter. The matrix control method uses a discrete-time model of the converter system to predict the expected values of the input and output currents for all the 27 possible vectors generated by the matrix converter. An optimal controller minimizes control errors using a weighted cost functional. The flywheel and control process was tested as a DVR to mitigate voltage sags and swells. Simulation results show that the DVR is able to compensate the critical load voltage without delays, voltage undershoots or overshoots, overcoming the input/output coupling of matrix converters.

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This paper presents a new predictive digital control method applied to Matrix Converters (MC) operating as Unified Power Flow Controllers (UPFC). This control method, based on the inverse dynamics model equations of the MC operating as UPFC, just needs to compute the optimal control vector once in each control cycle, in contrast to direct dynamics predictive methods that needs 27 vector calculations. The theoretical principles of the inverse dynamics power flow predictive control of the MC based UPFC with input filter are established. The proposed inverse dynamics predictive power control method is tested using Matlab/Simulink Power Systems toolbox and the obtained results show that the designed power controllers guarantees decoupled active and reactive power control, zero error tracking, fast response times and an overall good dynamic and steady-state response.

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The development of an intelligent wheelchair (IW) platform that may be easily adapted to any commercial electric powered wheelchair and aid any person with special mobility needs is the main objective of this project. To be able to achieve this main objective, three distinct control methods were implemented in the IW: manual, shared and automatic. Several algorithms were developed for each of these control methods. This paper presents three of the most significant of those algorithms with emphasis on the shared control method. Experiments were performed by users suffering from cerebral palsy, using a realistic simulator, in order to validate the approach. The experiments revealed the importance of using shared (aided) controls for users with severe disabilities. The patients still felt having complete control over the wheelchair movement when using a shared control at a 50% level and thus this control type was very well accepted. Thus it may be used in intelligent wheelchairs since it is able to correct the direction in case of involuntary movements of the user but still gives him a sense of complete control over the IW movement.

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In this study, the events following application of the insecticideDemand 2.5 concentrated solution (CS) in the field, to control Tityus stigmurus, were investigated. Data on attitudes and practices relating to scorpionism were collected using a questionnaire. During the months of May to July 2005, 69 premises were monitored on different days following insecticide treatment, focusing on scorpion frequency and mortality. According to the results, 42% of the premises showed scorpion incidence, with an average of three specimens per house. The highest incidence was recorded during the first week following the treatment. Only 7% of the specimens were found dead. Most (72%) of the population showed knowledge about prevention and control measures. Despite this, 100% of the premises presented breeding sites, mainly in debris (79.7%). These results indicate that the scorpion control method used by health agents during this investigation was not efficient, and the results suggest that the method may have had a dispersive effect on these animals.

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The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

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An ecological control method, using environmental management operations, based on biological and behavioral characteristics of Triatoma dimidiata (Latreille, 1811), was implemented as a pilot project in an area of Costa Rica where the bug is prevalent. The sample was represented by 20 houses with peridomestic colonies (two also had indoor infestation), divided in two equivalent groups of 10 each. In one group we intervened the houses, i.e. all objects or materials that were serving as artificial ecotopes for the bugs were removed, and the second group was used as control houses. After a year of periodic follow up, it became evident that in those houses with a modified environment the number of insects had decreased notoriously even after the first visits and this was more evident after a period of 12.5 to 13.5 months in which no insects were detected in eight of the houses. It also became clear that in this group of houses, recolonization by wild bugs from the surrounding areas, became more difficult, probably due to the absence of protection from bug predators. In the control houses, with the exception of three in which the inhabitants decided to intervene on their own, and another house with a peculiar situation, the insect populations remained the same or even showed a tendency to increase, as confirmed at the end of the experiment. We believe that the method is feasible, low costing and non contaminating. It could be used successfully in other places where T. dimidiata is common and also in countries where other species colonize peridomestic areas of homes. Environmental management of this kind should seek the participation of the members of the communities, in order to make it a more permanent control measure.

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An ecological pilot project for the control of Triatoma dimidiata allowed a new evaluation four and five years after environmental modifications in the peridomestic areas of 20 households. It was verified that the two groups of houses, 10 case-houses and 10 control-houses, were free of insects after those periods of time. In the first group, the owners started a chicken coop in the backyard and a colony of bugs was found there without infesting the house. In the second group, the inhabitants of one house once again facilitated the conditions for the bugs to thrive in the same store room, reaffirming that man-made ecotopes facilitates colonization. This ecological control method was revealed to be reliable and sustainable and it is recommended to be applied to those situations where the vectors of Chagas disease can colonize houses and are frequent in wild ecotopes.

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In Guatemala, the Ministry of Health (MoH) began a vector control project with Japanese cooperation in 2000 to reduce the risk of Chagas disease infection. Rhodnius prolixus is one of the principal vectors and is targeted for elimination. The control method consisted of extensive residual insecticide spraying campaigns, followed by community-based surveillance with selective respraying. Interventions in nine endemic departments identified 317 villages with R. prolixus of 4,417 villages surveyed. Two cycles of residual insecticide spraying covered over 98% of the houses in the identified villages. Fourteen villages reinfestated were all resprayed. Between 2000-2003 and 2008, the number of infested villages decreased from 317 to two and the house infestation rate reduced from 0.86% to 0.0036%. Seroprevalence rates in 2004-2005, when compared with an earlier study in 1998, showed a significant decline from 5.3% to 1.3% among schoolchildren in endemic areas. The total operational cost was US$ 921,815, where the cost ratio between preparatory, attack and surveillance phases was approximately 2:12:1. In 2008, Guatemala was certified for interruption of Chagas disease transmission by R. prolixus. What facilitated the process was existing knowledge in vector control and notable commitment by the MoH, as well as political, managerial and technical support by external stakeholders.

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This manual summarizes the roadside tree and brush control methods used by all of Iowa's 99 counties. It is based on interviews conducted in Spring 2002 with county engineers, roadside managers and others. The target audience of this manual is the novice county engineer or roadside manager. Iowa law is nearly silent on roadside tree and brush control, so individual counties have been left to decide on the level of control they want to achieve and maintain. Different solutions have been developed but the goal of every county remains the same: to provide safe roads for the traveling public. Counties in eastern and southern Iowa appear to face the greatest brush control challenge. Most control efforts can be divided into two categories: mechanical and chemical. Mechanical control includes cutting tools and supporting equipment. A chain saw is the most widely used cutting tool. Tractor mounted boom mowers and brush cutters are used to prune miles of brush but have significant safety and aesthetic limitations and boom mowers are easily broken by inexperienced operators. The advent of tree shears and hydraulic thumbs offer unprecedented versatility. Bulldozers are often considered a method of last resort since they reduce large areas to bare ground. Any chipper that violently grabs brush should not be used. Chemical control is the application of herbicide to different parts of a plant: foliar spray is applied to leaves; basal bark spray is applied to the tree trunk; a cut stump treatment is applied to the cambium ring of a cut surface. There is reluctance by many to apply herbicide into the air due to drift concerns. One-third of Iowa counties do not use foliar spray. By contrast, several accepted control methods are directed toward the ground. Freshly cut stumps should be treated to prevent resprouting. Basal bark spray is highly effective in sensitive areas such as near houses. Interest in chemical control is slowly increasing as herbicides and application methods are refined. Fall burning, a third, distinctly separate technique is underused as a brush control method and can be effective if timed correctly. In all, control methods tend to reflect agricultural patterns in a county. The use of chain saws and foliar sprays tends to increase in counties where row crops predominate, and boom mowing tends to increase in counties where grassland predominates. For counties with light to moderate roadside brush, rotational maintenance is the key to effective control. The most comprehensive approach to control is to implement an integrated roadside vegetation management (IRVM) program. An IRVM program is usually directed by a Roadside Manager whose duties may be shared with another position. Funding for control programs comes from the Rural Services Basic portion of a county's budget. The average annual county brush control budget is about $76,000. That figure is thought not to include shared expenses such as fuel and buildings. Start up costs for an IRVM program are less if an existing control program is converted. In addition, IRVM budgets from three different northeastern Iowa counties are offered for comparison in this manual. The manual also includes a chapter on temporary traffic control in rural work zones, a summary of the Iowa Code as it relates to brush control, and rules on avoiding seasonal disturbance of the endangered Indiana bat. Appendices summarize survey and forest cover data, an equipment inventory, sample forms for record keeping, a sample brush control policy, a few legal opinions, a literature search, and a glossary.

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This work extends a previously developed research concerning about the use of local model predictive control in differential driven mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are briefly introduced. In this sense, monocular image data can be used to plan safety trajectories by using goal attraction potential fields

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This research extends a previously developed work concerning about the use of local model predictive control in mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The platformused is a differential driven robot with a free rotating wheel. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are also introduced. In this sense, monocular image data provide an occupancy grid where safety trajectories are computed by using goal attraction potential fields