An arch in the UK

Arches, streamers, polar lights, merry dancers… just a few of many names used to describe the aurora borealis in historical documents in the UK. We have compiled a new catalogue of 20591 independent reports of auroral sightings from the British Isles and Ireland for 1700–1975 using observatory yearbooks, the diaries of amateur observers, newspaper reports and the scientific literature. Our aim is to provide an independent data series that can aid understanding of longterm solar variability, alongside cosmogenic isotope data and historic records of geomagnetic activity and sunspots.

The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the discussion of the financial aspects of dollarization and optimum currency areas. Based on the model of self-fulfilling debt crisis developed by Cole and Kehoe [4], it is possible to evaluate the comparative welfare of economies, which either keep their local currency and an independent monetary policy, join a monetary union or adopt dollarization. In the two former monetary regimes, governments can issue debt denominated, respectively, in local and common currencies, which is completely purchased by national consumers. Given this ability, governments may decide to impose an inflation tax on these assets and use the revenues so collected to avoid an external debt crises. While the country that issues its own currency takes this decision independently, a country belonging to a monetary union depends on the joint decision of all member countries about the common monetary policy. In this way, an external debt crises may be avoided under the local and common currency regimes, if, respectively, the national and the union central banks have the ability to do monetary policy, represented by the reduction in the real return on the bonds denominated in these currencies. This resource is not available under dollarization. In a dollarized economy, the loss of control over national monetary policy does not allow adjustments for exogenous shocks that asymmetrically affect the client and the anchor countries, but credibility is strengthened. On the other hand, given the ability to inflate the local currency, the central bank may be subject to the political influence of a government not so strongly concerned with fiscal discipline, which reduces the welfare of the economy. In a similar fashion, under a common currency regime, the union central bank may also be under the influence of a group of countries to inflate the common currency, even though they do not face external restrictions. Therefore, the local and common currencies could be viewed as a way to provide welfare enhancing bankruptcy, if it is not abused. With these peculiarities of monetary regimes in mind, we simulate the levels of economic welfare for each, employing recent data for the Brazilian economy.

Em busca de um novo indicador Espectroscópico do período de rotação das Estrelas do tipo solar

The study of sunspots consistently contributed to a better understanding of magnetic phenomena of the Sun, as its activity. It was found with the dynamics of sunspots that the Sun has a rotation period of twenty-seven days around your axis. With the help of Project Sun-As-A-Star that solar spectra obtained for more than thirty years we observed oscillations of both the depth of the spectral line and its equivalent width, and analysis of the return information about the characteristics of solar magnetism. It also aims to find patterns of solar magnetic activity cycle and the average period of rotation of the Sun will indicate the spectral lines that are sensitive to magnetic activity and which are not. Sensitive lines how Ti II 5381.0 Å stands as the best indicator of the solar rotation period and also shows different periods of rotation cycles of minimum and maximum magnetic activity. It is the first time we observe clearly distinct rotation periods in the different cycles. The analysis also shows that Ca II 8542.1 Å and HI 6562.0 Å indicate the cycle of magnetic activity of eleven years. Some spectral lines no indicated connection with solar activity, this result can help us search for programs planets using spectroscopic models. Data analysis was performed using the Lomb-Scargle method that makes the time series analysis for unequally spaced data. Observe different rotation periods in the cycles of magnetic activity accounts for a discussion has been debated for many decades. We verified that spectroscopy can also specify the period of stellar rotation, thus being able to generalize the method to other stars

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Nanosatellites costelation mission: ODEI-C24

Our mission consists in 4 key objectives: Quantify the number of sunspots during the solar maximum, and also characterize their activity and magnetism. Demonstrate the reliability of a mission in LEO orbit, for an effective solar observation. Technology demonstrator: we will take on board an experiment: the PTF (Polymer Filter test in flight ), associated with visible cameras. Investigation of the potential for exploitation of ground space market through the sale of images taken in flight.

The sunspot.

Editor: J.S. Ricard.

Sunspot numbers, 1610-1985 : based on "The sunspot activity in the years 1610-1960" /

Mode of access: Internet.

Astronomische Mitteilungen von Dr. Rudolf Wolf.

Mode of access: Internet.

Observations of the spots on the sun from November 9, 1853, to March 24, 1861, made at Redhill,

On t.-p.: The publication of this work was aided by a grant from the fund placed at the disposal of the Royal society by Her Majesty's Treasury.

Solar relations to weather and life.

Mode of access: Internet.

Photoheliographic results.

Vols. for 1878- issued also as a section of the Greenwich observations in astronomy and magnetism; information prior to 1878 issued also in the Greenwich observations.

Análise wavelet e modelo de manchas em curvas de luz estelares dos telescópios espaciais Kepler e CoRoT

Analogous to sunspots and solar photospheric faculae, which visibility is modulated by stellar rotation, stellar active regions consist of cool spots and bright faculae caused by the magnetic field of the star. Such starspots are now well established as major tracers used to estimate the stellar rotation period, but their dynamic behavior may also be used to analyze other relevant phenomena such as the presence of magnetic activity and its cycles. To calculate the stellar rotation period, identify the presence of active regions and investigate if the star exhibits or not differential rotation, we apply two methods: a wavelet analysis and a spot model. The wavelet procedure is also applied here to study pulsation in order to identify specific signatures of this particular stellar variability for different types of pulsating variable stars. The wavelet transform has been used as a powerful tool for treating several problems in astrophysics. In this work, we show that the time-frequency analysis of stellar light curves using the wavelet transform is a practical tool for identifying rotation, magnetic activity, and pulsation signatures. We present the wavelet spectral composition and multiscale variations of the time series for four classes of stars: targets dominated by magnetic activity, stars with transiting planets, those with binary transits, and pulsating stars. We applied the Morlet wavelet (6th order), which offers high time and frequency resolution. By applying the wavelet transform to the signal, we obtain the wavelet local and global power spectra. The first is interpreted as energy distribution of the signal in time-frequency space, and the second is obtained by time integration of the local map. Since the wavelet transform is a useful mathematical tool for nonstationary signals, this technique applied to Kepler and CoRoT light curves allows us to clearly identify particular signatures for different phenomena. In particular, patterns were identified for the temporal evolution of the rotation period and other periodicity due to active regions affecting these light curves. In addition, a beat-pattern vii signature in the local wavelet map of pulsating stars over the entire time span was also detected. The second method is based on starspots detection during transits of an extrasolar planet orbiting its host star. As a planet eclipses its parent star, we can detect physical phenomena on the surface of the star. If a dark spot on the disk of the star is partially or totally eclipsed, the integrated stellar luminosity will increase slightly. By analyzing the transit light curve it is possible to infer the physical properties of starspots, such as size, intensity, position and temperature. By detecting the same spot on consecutive transits, it is possible to obtain additional information such as the stellar rotation period in the planetary transit latitude, differential rotation, and magnetic activity cycles. Transit observations of CoRoT-18 and Kepler-17 were used to implement this model.

Time-dependent Suppression of Oscillatory Power in Evolving Solar Magnetic Fields

Oscillation amplitudes are generally smaller within magnetically active regions like sunspots and plage when compared to their surroundings. Such magnetic features, when viewed in spatially resolved power maps, appear as regions of suppressed power due to reductions in the oscillation amplitudes. Employing high spatial- and temporal-resolution observations from the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST) in New Mexico, we study the power suppression in a region of evolving magnetic fields adjacent to a pore. By utilizing wavelet analysis, we study for the first time how the oscillatory properties in this region change as the magnetic field evolves with time. Image sequences taken in the blue continuum, G-band, Ca ii K, and Hα filters were used in this study. It is observed that the suppression found in the chromosphere occupies a relatively larger area, confirming previous findings. Also, the suppression is extended to structures directly connected to the magnetic region, and is found to get enhanced as the magnetic field strength increased with time. The dependence of the suppression on the magnetic field strength is greater at longer periods and higher formation heights. Furthermore, the dominant periodicity in the chromosphere was found to be anti-correlated with increases in the magnetic field strength.