Simulations of physics and chemistry of polar stratospheric clouds with a general circulation model

A polar stratospheric cloud submodel has been developed and incorporated in a general circulation model including atmospheric chemistry (ECHAM5/MESSy). The formation and sedimentation of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles can thus be simulated as well as heterogeneous chemical reactions that take place on the PSC particles. For solid PSC particle sedimentation, the need for a tailor-made algorithm has been elucidated. A sedimentation scheme based on first order approximations of vertical mixing ratio profiles has been developed. It produces relatively little numerical diffusion and can deal well with divergent or convergent sedimentation velocity fields. For the determination of solid PSC particle sizes, an efficient algorithm has been adapted. It assumes a monodisperse radii distribution and thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas phase and the solid particle phase. This scheme, though relatively simple, is shown to produce particle number densities and radii within the observed range. The combined effects of the representations of sedimentation and solid PSC particles on vertical H2O and HNO3 redistribution are investigated in a series of tests. The formation of solid PSC particles, especially of those consisting of nitric acid trihydrate, has been discussed extensively in recent years. Three particle formation schemes in accordance with the most widely used approaches have been identified and implemented. For the evaluation of PSC occurrence a new data set with unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage was available. A quantitative method for the comparison of simulation results and observations is developed and applied. It reveals that the relative PSC sighting frequency can be reproduced well with the PSC submodel whereas the detailed modelling of PSC events is beyond the scope of coarse global scale models. In addition to the development and evaluation of new PSC submodel components, parts of existing simulation programs have been improved, e.g. a method for the assimilation of meteorological analysis data in the general circulation model, the liquid PSC particle composition scheme, and the calculation of heterogeneous reaction rate coefficients. The interplay of these model components is demonstrated in a simulation of stratospheric chemistry with the coupled general circulation model. Tests against recent satellite data show that the model successfully reproduces the Antarctic ozone hole.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Studies on the Characteristics of Vertical Circulation and Equatorial Waves using Indian MST Radar

The aim of the present study is to understand the characteristics and properties of different wave modes and the vertical circulation pattern in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Indian region using data obtained from the Indian Mesosphere-Stratosphere Troposphere (MST) radar, National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Centres of Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysed data and radiosonde observations.Studies on the vertical motion in monsoon Hadley circulation are carried out and the results are discussed . From the analysis of MST radar data, an overall picture of vertical motion of air over Indian region is explained and noted that there exists sinking motion both during winter and summer. Besides, the study shows that there is an anomalous northerly wind in the troposphere over the southern peninsular region during southwest monsoon season.The outcome of the study on intrusion of mid-latitude upper tropospheric trough and associated synoptic-scale vertical velocity over the tropical Indian latitudes are reported and discussed . It shows that there is interaction between north Indian latitudes and tropical easterly region, when there is an eastward movement of Western Disturbance across the country. It explains the strengthening of westerlies and a change of winter westerlies into easterlies in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere. The divergence field computed over the MST radar station shows intensification in the downward motion in association with the synoptic systems of the northwest Indian region.

‘Sudden Stratospheric Warming and its Influence on the Tropical Atmosphere'

The stratospheric warming events are categorized into major and minor warming depending on the temperature increase in the polar stratosphere. The warming is called a ‘major’, when the polar temperature increases poleward from 60 degree latitude and followed by a reversal in the zonal wind at 10 hPa (~32 Km). Usually major warming events are associated with the displacement of polar vortex from high to mid latitudes or the splitting of vortices in to two. The warming is called a "Minor", when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degree in a period of a week or less, at any stratospheric level with less intensified easterly wind anomalies. The stratospheric warmings generated during the transition period of winter to spring are called final warmings. The warming events observed in the early winter period (November to early December) over Canadian region are called Canadian warmings. There is strong interaction between stratosphere and troposphere during SSW period over high and low latitudes regions. The thesis consists of 7 chapters

Stratospheric communication of El Nino teleconnections to European winter

The stratospheric role in the European winter surface climate response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature forcing is investigated using an intermediate general circulation model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Under El Niño conditions, both the modeled tropospheric and stratospheric mean-state circulation changes correspond well to the observed “canonical” responses of a late winter negative North Atlantic Oscillation and a strongly weakened polar vortex, respectively. The variability of the polar vortex is modulated by an increase in frequency of stratospheric sudden warming events throughout all winter months. The potential role of this stratospheric response in the tropical Pacific–European teleconnection is investigated by sensitivity experiments in which the mean state and variability of the stratosphere are degraded. As a result, the observed stratospheric response to El Niño is suppressed and the mean sea level pressure response fails to resemble the temporal and spatial evolution of the observations. The results suggest that the stratosphere plays an active role in the European response to El Niño. A saturation mechanism whereby for the strongest El Niño events tropospheric forcing dominates the European response is suggested. This is examined by means of a sensitivity test and it is shown that under large El Niño forcing the European response is insensitive to stratospheric representation.

Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

Can the dynamical impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere be described by large-scale adjustment to the stratospheric PV distribution?

Recent numerical experiments have demonstrated that the state of the stratosphere has a dynamical impact on the state of the troposphere. To account for such an effect, a number of mechanisms have been proposed in the literature, all of which amount to a large-scale adjustment of the troposphere to potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the stratosphere. This paper analyses whether a simple PV adjustment suffices to explain the actual dynamical response of the troposphere to the state of the stratosphere, the actual response being determined by ensembles of numerical experiments run with an atmospheric general-circulation model. For this purpose, a new PV inverter is developed. It is shown that the simple PV adjustment hypothesis is inadequate. PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce, by inversion, flow anomalies in the troposphere that do not coincide spatially with the tropospheric changes determined by the numerical experiments. Moreover, the tropospheric anomalies induced by PV inversion are on a larger scale than the changes found in the numerical experiments, which are linked to the Atlantic and Pacific storm-tracks. These findings imply that the impact of the stratospheric state on the troposphere is manifested through the impact on individual synoptic-scale systems and their self-organization in the storm-tracks. Changes in these weather systems in the troposphere are not merely synoptic-scale noise on a larger scale tropospheric response, but an integral part of the mechanism by which the state of the stratosphere impacts that of the troposphere.

The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

A GCM study of the influence of equatorial winds on the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings

A full troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere global circulation model is used in a set of idealised experiments to investigate the sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric flow to improvements in the equatorial zonal winds. The model shows significant sensitivity to variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere, the imposition of SAO and QBO like variability in this region advances the timing of midwinter sudden warmings by about one month. Perturbations to the lower equatorial stratosphere are mainly found to influence early winter polar variability. These results suggest that it is important to pay attention to the capability of models to simulate realistic variability in the upper equatorial stratosphere.

Associations between stratospheric variability and tropospheric blocking

There is widely believed to be a link between stratospheric flow variability and stationary, persistent “blocking” weather systems, but the precise nature of this link has proved elusive. Using data from the ERA-40 Reanalysis and an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with a well-resolved stratosphere (HadGAM), it is shown that there are in fact several different highly significant associations, with blocking in different regions being related to different patterns of stratospheric variability. This is true in both hemispheres and in both data sets. The associations in HadGAM are shown to be very similar to those in ERA-40, although the model has a tendency to underestimate both European blocking and the wave number 2 stratospheric variability to which this is related. Although the focus is on stratospheric variability in general, several of the blocking links are seen to occur in association with the major stratospheric sudden warmings. In general, the direction of influence appears to be upward, as blocking anomalies are shown to modify the planetary stationary waves, leading to an upward propagation of wave activity into the stratosphere. However, significant correlations are also apparent with the zonal mean flow in the stratosphere leading the occurrence of blocking at high latitudes. Finally, the underestimation of blocking is an enduring problem in GCMs, and an example has recently been given in which improving the resolution of the stratosphere improved the representation of blocking. Here, however, another example is given, in which increasing the stratospheric resolution unfortunately does not lead to an improvement in blocking.

Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere–troposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere–troposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

A simple relationship between volcanic sulfate aerosol optical depth and surface temperature change simulated in an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.

In this study we quantify the relationship between the aerosol optical depth increase from a volcanic eruption and the severity of the subsequent surface temperature decrease. This investigation is made by simulating 10 different sizes of eruption in a global circulation model (GCM) by changing stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical depth at each time step. The sizes of the simulated eruptions range from Pinatubo‐sized up to the magnitude of supervolcanic eruptions around 100 times the size of Pinatubo. From these simulations we find that there is a smooth monotonic relationship between the global mean maximum aerosol optical depth anomaly and the global mean temperature anomaly and we derive a simple mathematical expression which fits this relationship well. We also construct similar relationships between global mean aerosol optical depth and the temperature anomaly at every individual model grid box to produce global maps of best‐fit coefficients and fit residuals. These maps are used with caution to find the eruption size at which a local temperature anomaly is clearly distinct from the local natural variability and to approximate the temperature anomalies which the model may simulate following a Tambora‐sized eruption. To our knowledge, this is the first study which quantifies the relationship between aerosol optical depth and resulting temperature anomalies in a simple way, using the wealth of data that is available from GCM simulations.

Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system

Advances in weather and climate research have demonstrated the role of the stratosphere in the Earth system across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Stratospheric ozone loss has been identified as a key driver of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation trends, affecting ocean currents and carbon uptake, sea ice, and possibly even the Antarctic ice sheets. Stratospheric variability has also been shown to affect short term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm track dynamics. The two-way interactions between the stratosphere and the Earth system have motivated the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) DynVar activity to investigate the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on climate. This assessment will be made possible by two new multi-model datasets. First, roughly 10 models with a well resolved stratosphere are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), providing the first multi-model ensemble of climate simulations coupled from the stratopause to the sea floor. Second, the Stratosphere Historical Forecasting Project (SHFP) of WCRP's Climate Variability and predictability (CLIVAR) program is forming a multi-model set of seasonal hindcasts with stratosphere resolving models, revealing the impact of both stratospheric initial conditions and dynamics on intraseasonal prediction. The CMIP5 and SHFP model-data sets will offer an unprecedented opportunity to understand the role of the stratosphere in the natural and forced variability of the Earth system and to determine whether incorporating knowledge of the middle atmosphere improves seasonal forecasts and climate projections. Capsule New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.