Not all university degrees yield the same return: private and social returns to higher education for males in Spain

In this paper we use micro data from the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey for 1990 to estimate, for the first time, the private and social rates of return of different university degrees in Spain. We compute internal rates of return and include investment on higher education financed by the public purse to estimate social rates of return. Our main finding is that, as presumed, there is large heterogeneity in rates of return amongst different university

The Private and fiscal returns to schooling and the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education: a general framework and some results for the EU

This paper develops a comprehensive framework for the quantitative analysis of the private and fiscal returns to schooling and of the effect of public policies on private incentives to invest in education. This framework is applied to 14 member states of the European Union. For each of these countries, we construct estimates of the private return to an additional year of schooling for an individual of average attainment, taking into account the effects of education on wages and employment probabilities after allowing for academic failure rates, the direct and opportunity costs of schooling, and the impact of personal taxes, social security contributions and unemployment and pension benefits on net incomes. We also construct a set of effective tax and subsidy rates that measure the effects of different public policies on the private returns to education, and measures of the fiscal returns to schooling that capture the long-term effects of a marginal increase in attainment on public finances under conditions that approximate general equilibrium.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Solovian and New Growth Theory from the Perspective of Allyn Young on Macroeconomic Increasing Returns

This paper evaluates, from an Allyn Youngian perspective, the neoclassical Solow model of growth and the associated empirical estimates of the sources of growth based on it. It attempts to clarify Young’s particular concept of generalised or macroeconomic “increasing returns” to show the limitations of a model of growth based on an assumption that the aggregate production function is characterised by constant returns to scale but “augmented” by exogenous technical progress. Young’s concept of endogenous, self-sustaining growth is also shown to differ in important respects (including in its policy implications) from modern endogenous growth theory.

Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of macro-liquidity shocks on the returns of UK stock portfolios sorted on the basis of a series of micro-liquidity measures. The macro-liquidity shocks are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee relative to market expectations embedded in futures contracts on the 3-month LIBOR during the period June 1999- December 2009. We report definitive evidence that these shocks are transmitted to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with most liquid stocks playing a very active role. Our results emphatically document that the shocks-returns relationship has reversed its sign during the recent financial crisis; the standard inverse relationship between interest rate surprises and portfolios’ returns before the crisis has turned into positive during the crisis. This finding confirms the inability of interest rate cuts to boost returns in the shortrun during the crisis, because these were perceived by market participants as a signal of a deteriorating economic outlook.

An Optimised Illustrative Investment Model Of The Economics Of Integrated Returns From CCS Deployment In The UK/UKCS

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 118

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

IPH response to Department of Health (UK) Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Products

Enhanced tobacco control policies and programmes are an important component of any strategic approach to improving population health and tackling health inequalities. The consultation on standardised packaging of tobacco products in the UK is particularly timely in view of the recent publication of the Ten Year Tobacco Strategy for Northern Ireland (DHSSPS, 2012). In this strategy the Department expressed its support for the introduction of further measures to reduce the influence of tobacco advertising and promotion upon children e.g. the introduction of plain packaging for cigarettes and hand rolling tobacco.  IPH key points •    The extent of tobacco-related harm across the island of Ireland and across the UK is unacceptable. Increasingly comprehensive and effective tobacco-control interventions are required. •    IPH recommends the adoption of option 2: require standardised packaging of tobacco products. •    IPH acknowledges that as plain packaging has not yet been introduced in any country, it is not possible at this time to accurately forecast the extent and nature of this intervention on population level health outcomes in the UK context. •    The proposed approach appears comprehensive in addressing the direct and indirect ways in which elements of tobacco packaging can promote brand appeal and can portray impressions in respect of tobacco-related harm. Consideration should be given to include specific provisions relating to roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco packaging. Any approach needs to be regularly reviewed to take into account attempts to bypass restrictions and evaluate responses in respect of consumer choices. •    IPH considers that the introduction of plain packaging has the potential to support the achievement of the goals set out in the Ten Year Tobacco Control Strategy for Northern Ireland ( DHSSPS, 2012). •    Among children in Northern Ireland who reported trying their first cigarette, around one quarter were aged 11 or under and three quarters were 14 or under when they did so (DHSSPS, 2012).  The very young age of these children is concerning on many levels including their susceptibility to sophisticated branding and marketing techniques linked to tobacco packaging.

Consultation on standardised packaging of tobacco products April 2012 (PDF 1.6MB)

Consultation on standardised packaging of tobacco products April 2012

Towards a Standardised Framework for Inter-Country Adoption - Report of the Implementation Group

The report contains Background to the commissioning of the Report â?~â?~Towards a Standardised Framework for Intercountry Adoption Assessment Proceduresâ?Tâ?T; the Government decision arising; and the principal findings and recommendations of the Report (Chapter 1); Detailed information on progress made in relation to the recommendations contained in the Report (Chapters 2-5); Statistical data in relation to intercountry adoption services at June, 2000 (Chapter 6); A summary of key findings of the Implementation Group (Chapter 7); and The Implementation Groupâ?Ts recommendations regarding the future of intercountry adoption services (Chapter 8). Download the Report here

Towards a Standardised Framework for Inter-Country Adoption - Assessment Procedures

In the first part the background on inter-country adoption and assessment of prospective adopters are considered in general terms in Chapters Two and Three respectively. The second chapter places the objectives of the research into context. Due to the declining numbers of children being put forward for domestic adoption, there is increasing recourse to inter-country adoption. An overview of the situation is outlined. The legislation section outlines both Irish legislation and the pivotal international agreement relevant to inter-country adoption, namely the Hague Convention. The implications for inter-country adoption processes are described Download the Report here