Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

Controversies in cardiovascular medicine: Chronic stable coronary artery disease: drugs vs. revascularization

Coronary artery disease remains the leading cause of mortality in most industrialized countries, although age-standardized mortality related to coronary artery disease (CAD) has decreased by more than 40% during the last two decades. Coronary atherosclerosis may cause angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmia, and sudden death. Medical management of atherosclerosis and its manifestation aims at retardation of progression of plaque formation, prevention of plaque rupture, and subsequent events and treatment of symptoms, when these occur as well as treatment of the sequelae of the disease. Revascularization by either percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) is performed as treatment of flow-limiting coronary stenosis to reduce myocardial ischaemia. In high-risk patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), a routine invasive strategy with revascularization in most patients provides the best outcome with a significant reduction in death and myocardial infarction compared with an initial conservative strategy. Conversely, the benefit of revascularization among patients with chronic stable CAD has been called into question. This review will provide information that revascularization exerts favourable effects on symptoms, quality of life, exercise capacity, and survival, particularly in those with extensive CAD and documented moderate-to-severe ischaemia. Accordingly, CABG and PCI should be considered a valuable adjunct rather than an alternative to medical therapy.

Ventricular tachycardia arising from the aortomitral continuity in structural heart disease: characteristics and therapeutic considerations for an anatomically challenging area of origin

BACKGROUND: The aortomitral continuity (AMC) has been described as a site of origin for ventricular tachycardias (VT) in structurally normal hearts. There is a paucity of data on the contribution of this region to VTs in patients with structural heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 550 consecutive patients undergoing catheter ablation for VT associated with structural heart disease were reviewed. Twenty-one (3.8%) had a VT involving the peri-AMC region (age, 62.7+/-11 years; median left ventricular ejection fraction, 43.6+/-17%). Structural heart disease was ischemic in 7 (33%), dilated cardiomyopathy in 10 (47.6%), and valvular cardiomyopathy in 4 (19%) patients, respectively. After 1.9+/-0.8 catheter ablation procedures (including 3 transcoronary ethanol ablations) the peri-AMC VT was not inducible in 19 patients. The remaining 2 patients underwent cryosurgical ablation. Our first catheter ablation procedure was less often successful (66.7%) for peri-AMC VTs compared with that for 246 VTs originating from the LV free wall (81.4%, P=0.03). During a mean follow-up of 1.9+/-2.1 years, 12 (57.1%) patients remained free of VT, peri-AMC VT recurred in 7 patients, and 1 patient had recurrent VT from a remote location. Three patients died. Analysis of 50 normal coronary angiograms demonstrated an early septal branch supplying the peri-AMC area in 58% of cases that is a potential target for ethanol ablation. CONCLUSIONS: VTs involving the peri-AMC region occur in patients with structural heart disease and appear to be more difficult to ablate compared with VTs originating from the free LV wall. This region provides unique challenges for radiofrequency ablation, but cryosurgery and transcoronary alcohol ablation appear feasible in some cases.

Fractional Flow Reserve–Guided PCI for Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background We hypothesized that in patients with stable coronary artery disease and stenosis, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) performed on the basis of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) would be superior to medical therapy. Methods In 1220 patients with stable coronary artery disease, we assessed the FFR in all stenoses that were visible on angiography. Patients who had at least one stenosis with an FFR of 0.80 or less were randomly assigned to undergo FFR-guided PCI plus medical therapy or to receive medical therapy alone. Patients in whom all stenoses had an FFR of more than 0.80 received medical therapy alone and were included in a registry. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or urgent revascularization within 2 years. Results The rate of the primary end point was significantly lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (8.1% vs. 19.5%; hazard ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.57; P<0.001). This reduction was driven by a lower rate of urgent revascularization in the PCI group (4.0% vs. 16.3%; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.38; P<0.001), with no significant between-group differences in the rates of death and myocardial infarction. Urgent revascularizations that were triggered by myocardial infarction or ischemic changes on electrocardiography were less frequent in the PCI group (3.4% vs. 7.0%, P=0.01). In a landmark analysis, the rate of death or myocardial infection from 8 days to 2 years was lower in the PCI group than in the medical-therapy group (4.6% vs. 8.0%, P=0.04). Among registry patients, the rate of the primary end point was 9.0% at 2 years. Conclusions In patients with stable coronary artery disease, FFR-guided PCI, as compared with medical therapy alone, improved the outcome. Patients without ischemia had a favorable outcome with medical therapy alone. (Funded by St. Jude Medical; FAME 2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01132495 .).

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Stable coronary artery disease: revascularisation and invasive strategies

Stable coronary artery disease is the most common clinical manifestation of ischaemic heart disease and a leading cause of mortality worldwide. Myocardial revascularisation is a mainstay in the treatment of symptomatic patients or those with ischaemia-producing coronary lesions, and reduces ischaemia to a greater extent than medical treatment. Documentation of ischaemia and plaque burden is fundamental in the risk stratification of patients with stable coronary artery disease, and several invasive and non-invasive techniques are available (eg, fractional flow reserve or intravascular ultrasound) or being validated (eg, instantaneous wave-free ratio and optical coherence tomography). The use of new-generation drug-eluting stents and arterial conduits greatly improve clinical outcome in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). PCI is feasible, safe, and effective in many patients with stable coronary artery disease who remain symptomatic despite medical treatment. In patients with multivessel and left main coronary artery disease, the decision between PCI or CABG is guided by the local Heart Team (team of different cardiovascular specialists, including non-invasive and invasive cardiologists, and cardiac surgeons), who carefully judge the possible benefits and risks inherent to PCI and CABG. In specific subsets, such as patients with diabetes and advanced, multivessel coronary artery disease, CABG remains the standard of care in view of improved protection against recurrent ischaemic adverse events.

Prevalence of Subclinical Rheumatic Heart Disease in Eastern Nepal

Importance: Although rheumatic heart disease has been nearly eradicated in high-income countries, 3 in 4 children grow up in parts of the world where it is still endemic. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of clinically silent and manifest rheumatic heart disease as a function of age, sex, and socioeconomic status and to estimate age-specific incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this school-based cross-sectional study with cluster sampling, 26 schools in the Sunsari district in Eastern Nepal with 5467 eligible children 5 to 15 years of age were randomly selected from 595 registered schools. After exclusion of 289 children, 5178 children were enrolled in the present study from December 12, 2012, through September 12, 2014. Data analysis was performed from October 1, 2014, to April 15, 2015. Exposures: Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were acquired in a standardized interview by means of a questionnaire customized to the age of the children. A focused medical history was followed by a brief physical examination. Cardiac auscultation and transthoracic echocardiography were performed by 2 independent physicians. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rheumatic heart disease according to the World Heart Federation criteria. Results: The median age of the 5178 children enrolled in the study was 10 years (interquartile range, 8-13 years), and 2503 (48.3%) were female. The prevalence of borderline or definite rheumatic heart disease was 10.2 (95% CI, 7.5-13.0) per 1000 children and increased with advancing age from 5.5 (95% CI, 3.5-7.5) per 1000 children 5 years of age to 16.0 (95% CI, 14.9-17.0) in children 15 years of age, whereas the mean incidence remained stable at 1.1 per 1000 children per year. Children with rheumatic heart disease were older than children without rheumatic heart disease (median age [interquartile range], 11 [9-14] years vs 10 [8-13] years; P = .03), more commonly female (34 [64.2%] vs 2469 [48.2%]; P = .02), and more frequently went to governmental schools (40 [75.5%] vs 2792 [54.5%]; P = .002). Silent disease (n = 44) was 5 times more common than manifest disease (n = 9). Conclusions and Relevance: Rheumatic heart disease affects 1 in 100 schoolchildren in Eastern Nepal, is primarily clinically silent, and may be more common among girls. The overall prevalence and the ratio of manifest to subclinical disease increase with advancing age, whereas the incidence remains stable at 1.1 per 1000 children per year. Early detection of silent disease may help prevent progression to severe valvular damage.

Long Term Outcomes Following Catheter Ablation of Ventricular Tachycardia in Patients with and without Structural Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND Long-term outcomes following ventricular tachycardia (VT) ablation are sparsely described. OBJECTIVES To describe long term prognosis following VT ablation in patients with no structural heart disease (no SHD), ischemic (ICM) and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM). METHODS Consecutive patients (n=695; no SHD 98, ICM 358, NICM 239 patients) ablated for sustained VT were followed for a median of 6 years. Acute procedural parameters (complete success [non-inducibility of any VT]) and outcomes after multiple procedures were reported. RESULTS Compared with patients with no SHD or NICM, ICM patients were the oldest, had more males, lowest left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), highest drug failures, VT storms and number of inducible VTs. Complete procedure success was highest in no SHD, compared ICM and NICM patients (79%, 56%, 60% respectively, P<0.001). At 6 years, ventricular arrhythmia (VA)-free survival was highest in no SHD (77%) than ICM (54%) and NICM (38%, P<0.001) and overall survival was lowest in ICM (48%), followed by NICM (74%) and no SHD patients (100%, P<0.001). Age, LVEF, presence of SHD, acute procedural success (non-inducibility of any VT), major complications, need for non-radiofrequency ablation modalities, and VA recurrence were independently associated with all cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS Long term follow up following VT ablation shows excellent prognosis in the absence of SHD, highest VA recurrence and transplantation in NICM and highest mortality in patients with ICM. The extremely low mortality for those without SHD suggests that VT in this population is very rarely an initial presentation of a myopathic process.

Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults with Rheumatic Heart Disease from 14 Low and Middle Income Countries: 2-Year Follow-up of the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (the REMEDY study)

BACKGROUND: -There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) or information on their predictors. We report the two year follow-up of individuals with RHD from 14 low and middle income countries in Africa and Asia.

METHODS: -Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for two years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), recurrent acute rheumatic fever (ARF), and infective endocarditis (IE).

RESULTS: -Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age 28 years, interquartile range 18 to 40), the two year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.80-3.11), CHF (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.70-2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.32-2.10), atrial fibrillation (AF) (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78) and older age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.02 per year increase) at enrolment. Post-primary education (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54-0.85) and female sex (HR 0.65, 95%CI 0.52-0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. 204 (6.9%) had new CHF (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or TIA (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had ARF (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had IE (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/TIA or systemic embolism. Patients from low and lower-middle income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality compared to patients from upper-middle income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle income than in lower-middle- or low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS: -Patients with clinical RHD have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low and lower-middle income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and treatment of clinical RHD are required to improve outcomes.