Economic Incentives for Indirect TTIP Spillovers. CEPS Special Report No. 94/October 2014 [TTIP Series No. 2]

A deep, comprehensive and ambitious TTIP should not undermine or otherwise negatively affect the WTO and its signatories. Among other things, this means that trade diversion ought to be minimised and positive spillovers stimulated. The present CEPS Special Report provides some elementary quantification, which helps to understand the economic incentives for third countries to seek regulatory alignment with TTIP results, where relevant, and for which TTIP should be ‘open’. It focuses on ‘indirect’ spillovers and employs a rather aggregate economic approach. We find that, of three groups of countries that are important for trade with the EU and the US, the ‘closest’ neighbours (NAFTA, EEA, Switzerland and Turkey) exhibit powerful incentives to align so as to benefit from positive spillovers. This is less clear for two other groups. Of the (seven) ‘biggest traders’ (in manufactured goods, for which spillovers matter most), China turns out to have the greatest interest in alignment in selected sectors, followed by Israel, Japan and South Korea. Whereas the latter three either have or are negotiating FTAs with the US and the EU, precisely China has none and remains outside TPP as well. In terms of sectors, the chemical sector followed by electronic equipment are by far the most important, with agro-products and fish as a good third (SPS issues). However, in chemicals and electrical equipment, the TTIP negotiations so far, and recent US/EU regulatory cooperation, do not indicate an ambitious approach, which could reduce regulatory barriers to market access drastically.

R&D, Spillovers, Innovation Systems and the Genesis of Regional Growth in Europe. Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 5/October 2006

Research on the impact of innovation on regional economic performance in Europe has fundamentally followed three approaches: a) the analysis of the link between investment in R&D, patents, and economic growth; b) the study of the existence and efficiency of regional innovation systems; and c) the examination of geographical diffusion of regional knowledge spillovers. These complementary approaches have, however, rarely been combined. Important operational and methodological barriers have thwarted any potential cross-fertilization. In this paper, we try to fill this gap in the literature by combining in one model R&D, spillovers, and innovation systems approaches. A multiple regression analysis is conducted for all regions of the EU-25, including measures of R&D investment, proxies for regional innovation systems, and knowledge and socio-economic spillovers. This approach allows us to discriminate between the influence of internal factors and external knowledge and institutional flows on regional economic growth. The empirical results highlight how the interaction between local and external research with local and external socioeconomic and institutional conditions determines the potential of every region in order to maximise its innovation capacity. They also indicate the importance of proximity for the transmission of economically productive knowledge, as spillovers show strong distance decay effects. In the EU-25 context, only the innovative efforts pursued within a 180 minute travel radius have a positive and significant impact on regional growth performance.

The Relevance of International Spillovers and Asymmetric Effects in the Taylor Rule. CEPS Working Document No. 403, February 2015

Deviations of policy interest rates from the levels implied by the Taylor rule have been persistent before the financial crisis and increased especially after the turn of the century. Compared to the Taylor benchmark, policy rates were often too low. This paper provides evidence that both international spillovers, for instance international dependencies in the interest rate-setting of central banks, and nonlinear reaction patterns can offer a more realistic specification of the Taylor rule in the main industrial countries. The inclusion of international spillovers and, even more, nonlinear dynamics improves the explanatory power of standard Taylor reaction functions. Deviations from Taylor rates tend to be smaller and their negative trend can be eliminated.

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico

This paper investigates the hypotheses that the recently established Mexican stock index futures market effectively serves the price discovery function, and that the introduction of futures trading has provoked volatility in the underlying spot market. We test both hypotheses simultaneously with daily data from Mexico in the context of a modified EGARCH model that also incorporates possible cointegration between the futures and spot markets. The evidence supports both hypotheses, suggesting that the futures market in Mexico is a useful price discovery vehicle, although futures trading has also been a source of instability for the spot market. Several managerial implications are derived and discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the search for spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) with spatial dependency

This paper examines various specifications that are used within the literature to test for spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI). Analysis provides significant evidence of externalities from inward FDI, but it shows that these externalities are more localized than has previously been believed. Further, the results demonstrate that the econometric treatment of issues such as agglomeration, contiguity and spatial dependence significantly changes the conclusions regarding local and national spillovers from FDI, and productivity growth more generally.

The importance of clusters for spillovers from foreign direct investment and technology sourcing

This paper examines the link between cluster development and inward foreign direct investment. The conventional policy approach has been to assume that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) can stimulate significant clustering activity, thus generating significant spillovers. This paper, however, questions this and shows that, while clusters can generate significant productivity spillovers from FDI, this only occurs in pre-existing clusters. Further, the paper demonstrates that foreign-owned firms that enter clusters also appropriate spillovers when domestic firms undertake investment, raising the possibility that clusters are important locations for so called technology, or knowledge sourcing activities by MNEs. © 2006 Oxford University Press.

Regional policy and spillovers from FDI in the UK

This paper tests one of the fundamental assumptions of regional policy makers over the last 20 years. Western governments, in seeking to attract internationally mobile capital have spent significant sums of public money on subsidies and grants. This is justified on the basis that the social returns to FDI are significantly greater than the private returns, due to productivity or technology spillovers from inward investors to domestic industry. However, this paper generates some estimates of these spillovers for both assisted areas and non-assisted areas in the UK, and questions the size of these social returns, arguing that productivity spillovers do not occur in regions where significant inward investment incentives are available.

Regional foreign direct investment and wage spillovers:plant level evidence from the UK electronics industry

This paper examines the extent to which foreign investment in the UK generates wage spillovers in the domestic sector of the economy using a simultaneous dynamic panel data model and focusing on the electronics sector, possibly the most ‘globalized’ sector of UK manufacturing. It finds evidence that the higher wages paid by foreign firms cause wages in the domestic sector to be bid up. This phenomenon is, however, largely confined to the region where foreign direct investment takes place.

Inward investment, transaction linkages and productivity spillovers

The article examines the extent to which foreign manufacturing firms in the UK promote productivity growth in the domestically owned manufacturing sector through their buying and supplying relationships. Evidence for intra- and inter-regional externalities from the presence of foreign manufacturing, and intraand inter-industry effects is brought to light. Externalities in the domestic sector are most noticeable where foreign manufacturing sells to domestic manufacturing. These externalities are, however, not wholly robust to different specifications of spatial dependence. The findings are positioned in a debate, which has tended to view backward (as opposed to forward) linkages from multinationals to domestically owned supply bases as a critical driver of indirect economic benefits. © RSAI 2004.

Wage spillovers, inter-regional effects and the impact of inward investment

This paper evaluates the extent of inter-industry and inter-regional wage spillovers across the UK. An extensive body of literature exists suggesting that wages elsewhere affect wage determination and levels of satisfaction, but this paper extends the analysis of wage determination to examine the effects of inward investment in the process. Thus far the specific effect of foreign wages on domestic wage determination has not been evaluated. We employ industry- and regional-level panel data for the UK, and contrast results from alternative approaches to space-time modelling. Each supports the notion that such wage spillovers do occur, though assumptions made concerning the modelling of spatial interaction are important. Further, such wage spillovers are more widespread for skilled than for unskilled workers and also lower in areas of high unemployment. © 2006 Regional Studies Association.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) international spillovers

As information and communications technology (ICT) involves both traditional capital and knowledge capital, potential spillovers through various mechanisms can occur. Having tried to confirm the existence of ICT spillovers across country borders as Park et al. (Inf. Syst. Res., vol. 18, pp. 86-102, 2007), we investigate the patterns and mechanisms of international ICT spillovers. We use panel data on 37 countries from 1996 to 2004. We find that developing countries could reap more benefits from ICT spillovers than developed countries. We also find that the higher the Internet penetration rate in recipient countries, the more international ICT spillovers there might exist. Our findings are important for policy decisions regarding national trade liberalization and economic integration. Developing economies that are more open to foreign trade may have an economic advantage and may develop knowledge-intensive activities, which will lead to economic development in the long run.

International and intranational technological spillovers and productivity growth in China

Technological spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) have been regarded as a major source of technical progress and productivity growth. This paper explores the role of international and intranational technological spillovers from FDI in technical change, efficiency improvement, and total factor productivity growth in Chinese manufacturing firms using a recent Chinese manufacturing firm-level panel data set over the 2001–05 period. International industry-specific research and development (R&D) stock is linked to the Chinese firm-level data, international R&D spillovers from FDI and intranational technological spillovers of R&D activities by foreign invested firms in China are examined as well. Policy implications are discussed.

Does the motivation for foreign direct investment affect productivity spillovers to the domestic sector?

There is increasing empirical and theoretical evidence that foreign direct investment (FDI) may be motivated not by the desire to exploit some competitive advantage possessed by multinationals, but to access the technology of host economy firms. Using a panel of FDI flows across OECD countries and manufacturing sectors between 1984 and 1995, we test whether these contrasting motivations influence the effects that FDI has on domestic total factor productivity. The distinction between technology-exploiting FDI (TEFDI) and technology-sourcing FDI (TSFDI) is made using R&D intensity differentials between host and source sectors. The hypothesis that the motivation for FDI has an effect on total factor productivity spillovers is supported: TEFDI has a net positive effect, while TSFDI has a net negative effect. These net effects are explained in terms of the offsetting influences of productivity spillovers and market stealing effects induced by incoming multinationals.