Freshwater Resource Supply Modeling for Developed and Undeveloped Watersheds

Globally, the current state of freshwater resource management is insufficient and impeding the chance at a sustainable future. Human interference within the natural hydrologic cycle is becoming dangerously irreversible and the need to redefine resource managerial approaches is imminent. This research involves the development of a coupled natural-human freshwater resource supply model using a System Dynamics approach. The model was applied to two case studies, Somalia, Africa and the Phoenix Active Management Area in Arizona, USA. It is suggested that System Dynamic modeling would be an invaluable tool for achieving sustainable freshwater resource management in individual watersheds. Through a series of thought experiments, a thorough understanding of the systems’ dynamic behaviors is obtainable for freshwater resource managers and policy-makers to examine various courses of action for alleviating freshwater supply concerns. This thesis reviews the model, its development and an analysis of several thought experiments applied to the case studies.

Structural Time Series Modeling: an Application to Environmental Variables

A structural time series model is one which is set up in terms of components which have a direct interpretation. In this paper, the discussion focuses on the dynamic modeling procedure based on the state space approach (associated to the Kalman filter), in the context of surface water quality monitoring, in order to analyze and evaluate the temporal evolution of the environmental variables, and thus identify trends or possible changes in water quality (change point detection). The approach is applied to environmental time series: time series of surface water quality variables in a river basin. The statistical modeling procedure is applied to monthly values of physico- chemical variables measured in a network of 8 water monitoring sites over a 15-year period (1999-2014) in the River Ave hydrological basin located in the Northwest region of Portugal.

A NOVEL MODELING AND STATE OF CHARGE ESTIMATION SCHEME FOR LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES

Lithium Ion (Li-Ion) batteries have got attention in recent decades because of their undisputable advantages over other types of batteries. They are used in so many our devices which we need in our daily life such as cell phones, lap top computers, cameras, and so many electronic devices. They also are being used in smart grids technology, stand-alone wind and solar systems, Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), and Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). Despite the rapid increase in the use of Lit-ion batteries, the existence of limited battery models also inadequate and very complex models developed by chemists is the lack of useful models a significant matter. A battery management system (BMS) aims to optimize the use of the battery, making the whole system more reliable, durable and cost effective. Perhaps the most important function of the BMS is to provide an estimate of the State of Charge (SOC). SOC is the ratio of available ampere-hour (Ah) in the battery to the total Ah of a fully charged battery. The Open Circuit Voltage (OCV) of a fully relaxed battery has an approximate one-to-one relationship with the SOC. Therefore, if this voltage is known, the SOC can be found. However, the relaxed OCV can only be measured when the battery is relaxed and the internal battery chemistry has reached equilibrium. This thesis focuses on Li-ion battery cell modelling and SOC estimation. In particular, the thesis, introduces a simple but comprehensive model for the battery and a novel on-line, accurate and fast SOC estimation algorithm for the primary purpose of use in electric and hybrid-electric vehicles, and microgrid systems. The thesis aims to (i) form a baseline characterization for dynamic modeling; (ii) provide a tool for use in state-of-charge estimation. The proposed modelling and SOC estimation schemes are validated through comprehensive simulation and experimental results.

From unthinned continent to ocean: The deep structure of the West Iberia passive continental margin at 38 degrees N

The crustal and lithospheric mantle structure at the south segment of the west Iberian margin was investigated along a 370 km long seismic transect. The transect goes from unthinned continental crust onshore to oceanic crust, crossing the ocean-continent transition (OCT) zone. The wide-angle data set includes recordings from 6 OBSs and 2 inland seismic stations. Kinematic and dynamic modeling provided a 2D velocity model that proved to be consistent with the modeled free-air anomaly data. The interpretation of coincident multi-channel near-vertical and wide-angle reflection data sets allowed the identification of four main crustal domains: (i) continental (east of 9.4 degrees W); (ii) continental thinning (9.4 degrees W-9.7 degrees W): (iii) transitional (9.7 degrees W-similar to 10.5 degrees W); and (iv) oceanic (west of similar to 10.5 degrees W). In the continental domain the complete crustal section of slightly thinned continental crust is present. The upper (UCC, 5.1-6.0 km/s) and the lower continental crust (LCC, 6.9-7.2 km/s) are seismically reflective and have intermediate to low P-wave velocity gradients. The middle continental crust (MCC, 6.35-6.45 km/s) is generally unreflective with low velocity gradient. The main thinning of the continental crust occurs in the thinning domain by attenuation of the UCC and the LCC. Major thinning of the MCC starts to the west of the LCC pinchout point, where it rests directly upon the mantle. In the thinning domain the Moho slope is at least 13 degrees and the continental crust thickness decreases seaward from 22 to 11 km over a similar to 35 km distance, stretched by a factor of 1.5 to 3. In the oceanic domain a two-layer high-gradient igneous crust (5.3-6.0 km/s; 6.5-7.4 km/s) was modeled. The intra-crustal interface correlates with prominent mid-basement, 10-15 km long reflections in the multi-channel seismic profile. Strong secondary reflected PmP phases require a first order discontinuity at the Moho. The sedimentary cover can be as thick as 5 km and the igneous crustal thickness varies from 4 to 11 km in the west, where the profile reaches the Madeira-Tore Rise. In the transitional domain the crust has a complex structure that varies both horizontally and vertically. Beneath the continental slope it includes exhumed continental crust (6.15-6.45 km/s). Strong diffractions were modeled to originate at the lower interface of this layer. The western segment of this transitional domain is highly reflective at all levels, probably due to dykes and sills, according to the high apparent susceptibility and density modeled at this location. Sub-Moho mantle velocity is found to be 8.0 km/s, but velocities smaller than 8.0 km/s confined to short segments are not excluded by the data. Strong P-wave wide-angle reflections are modeled to originate at depth of 20 km within the lithospheric mantle, under the eastern segment of the oceanic domain, or even deeper at the transitional domain, suggesting a layered structure for the lithospheric mantle. Both interface depths and velocities of the continental section are in good agreement to the conjugate Newfoundland margin. A similar to 40 km wide OCT having a geophysical signature distinct from the OCT to the north favors a two pulse continental breakup.

Gérer la distance: les sauts d'échelle dans les relations sociales

Espaces et sociétés, N.79, modes de vie et société portugaise, pág. 93-106

Positional information by differential endocytosis splits auxin response to drive Arabidopsis root meristem growth.

In the Arabidopsis root meristem, polar auxin transport creates a transcriptional auxin response gradient that peaks at the stem cell niche and gradually decreases as stem cell daughters divide and differentiate [1-3]. The amplitude and extent of this gradient are essential for both stem cell maintenance and root meristem growth [4, 5]. To investigate why expression of some auxin-responsive genes, such as the essential root meristem growth regulator BREVIS RADIX (BRX) [6], deviates from this gradient, we combined experimental and computational approaches. We created cellular-level root meristem models that accurately reproduce distribution of nuclear auxin activity and allow dynamic modeling of regulatory processes to guide experimentation. Expression profiles deviating from the auxin gradient could only be modeled after intersection of auxin activity with the observed differential endocytosis pattern and positive autoregulatory feedback through plasma-membrane-to-nucleus transfer of BRX. Because BRX is required for expression of certain auxin response factor targets, our data suggest a cell-type-specific endocytosis-dependent input into transcriptional auxin perception. This input sustains expression of a subset of auxin-responsive genes across the root meristem's division and transition zones and is essential for meristem growth. Thus, the endocytosis pattern provides specific positional information to modulate auxin response.

Use Of Systems Approach with Total Quality Management in Industrial Organizations

The objective of the work has been to study why systems thinking should be used in combination with TQM, what are the main benefits of the integration and how it could best be done. The work analyzes the development of systems thinking and TQM with time and the main differences between them. The work defines prerequisites for adopting a systems approach and the organizational factors which embody the development of an efficient learning organization. The work proposes a model based on combination of an interactive management model and redesign to be used for application of systems approach with TQM in practice. The results of the work indicate that there are clear differences between systems thinking and TQM which justify their combination. Systems approach provides an additional complementary perspective to quality management. TQM is focused on optimizing operations at the operational level while interactive management and redesign of organization are focused on optimization operations at the conceptual level providing a holistic system for value generation. The empirical study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in one case study company but its application is tenable and possible also beyond this particular company. System dynamic modeling and other systems based techniques like cognitive mapping are useful methods for increasing understanding and learning about the behavior of systems. The empirical study emphasizes the importance of using a proper early warning system.

Hydrometallurgical recovery of valuable metals from secondary raw materials

Wastes and side streams in the mining industry and different anthropogenic wastes often contain valuable metals in such concentrations their recovery may be economically viable. These raw materials are collectively called secondary raw materials. The recovery of metals from these materials is also environmentally favorable, since many of the metals, for example heavy metals, are hazardous to the environment. This has been noticed in legislative bodies, and strict regulations for handling both mining and anthropogenic wastes have been developed, mainly in the last decade. In the mining and metallurgy industry, important secondary raw materials include, for example, steelmaking dusts (recoverable metals e.g. Zn and Mo), zinc plant residues (Ag, Au, Ga, Ge, In) and waste slurry from Bayer process alumina production (Ga, REE, Ti, V). From anthropogenic wastes, waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), among them LCD screens and fluorescent lamps, are clearly the most important from a metals recovery point of view. Metals that are commonly recovered from WEEE include, for example, Ag, Au, Cu, Pd and Pt. In LCD screens indium, and in fluorescent lamps, REEs, are possible target metals. Hydrometallurgical processing routes are highly suitable for the treatment of complex and/or low grade raw materials, as secondary raw materials often are. These solid or liquid raw materials often contain large amounts of base metals, for example. Thus, in order to recover valuable metals, with small concentrations, highly selective separation methods, such as hydrometallurgical routes, are needed. In addition, hydrometallurgical processes are also seen as more environmental friendly, and they have lower energy consumption, when compared to pyrometallurgical processes. In this thesis, solvent extraction and ion exchange are the most important hydrometallurgical separation methods studied. Solvent extraction is a mainstream unit operation in the metallurgical industry for all kinds of metals, but for ion exchange, practical applications are not as widespread. However, ion exchange is known to be particularly suitable for dilute feed solutions and complex separation tasks, which makes it a viable option, especially for processing secondary raw materials. Recovering valuable metals was studied with five different raw materials, which included liquid and solid side streams from metallurgical industries and WEEE. Recovery of high purity (99.7%) In, from LCD screens, was achieved by leaching with H2SO4, extracting In and Sn to D2EHPA, and selectively stripping In to HCl. In was also concentrated in the solvent extraction stage from 44 mg/L to 6.5 g/L. Ge was recovered as a side product from two different base metal process liquors with Nmethylglucamine functional chelating ion exchange resin (IRA-743). Based on equilibrium and dynamic modeling, a mechanism for this moderately complex adsorption process was suggested. Eu and Y were leached with high yields (91 and 83%) by 2 M H2SO4 from a fluorescent lamp precipitate of waste treatment plant. The waste also contained significant amounts of other REEs such as Gd and Tb, but these were not leached with common mineral acids in ambient conditions. Zn was selectively leached over Fe from steelmaking dusts with a controlled acidic leaching method, in which the pH did not go below, but was held close as possible to, 3. Mo was also present in the other studied dust, and was leached with pure water more effectively than with the acidic methods. Good yield and selectivity in the solvent extraction of Zn was achieved by D2EHPA. However, Fe needs to be eliminated in advance, either by the controlled leaching method or, for example, by precipitation. 100% Pure Mo/Cr product was achieved with quaternary ammonium salt (Aliquat 336) directly from the water leachate, without pH adjustment (pH 13.7). A Mo/Cr mixture was also obtained from H2SO4 leachates with hydroxyoxime LIX 84-I and trioctylamine (TOA), but the purities were 70% at most. However with Aliquat 336, again an over 99% pure mixture was obtained. High selectivity for Mo over Cr was not achieved with any of the studied reagents. Ag-NaCl solution was purified from divalent impurity metals by aminomethylphosphonium functional Lewatit TP-260 ion exchange resin. A novel preconditioning method, named controlled partial neutralization, with conjugate bases of weak organic acids, was used to control the pH in the column to avoid capacity losses or precipitations. Counter-current SMB was shown to be a better process configuration than either batch column operation or the cross-current operation conventionally used in the metallurgical industry. The raw materials used in this thesis were also evaluated from an economic point of view, and the precipitate from a waste fluorescent lamp treatment process was clearly shown to be the most promising.

Análisis económico de las vacunas 10-valente y 13-valente contra neumococo: revisión sistemática

Introducción: Las vacunas clásicamente han representado un método económico y eficaz para el control y prevención de múltiples enfermedades infecciosas. En los últimos años se han introducido nuevas vacunas contra neumococo a precios elevados, y los diferentes análisis económicos a nivel mundial de estas vacunas no muestran tendencias. El objetivo de este trabajo era resumir la evidencia existente a través de los diferentes estudios económicos evaluando las dos vacunas de segunda generación contra neumococo en la población a riesgo. Metodología: En este trabajo se realizo una revisión sistemática de la literatura en 8 bases de datos localizadas en diferentes partes del mundo y también que tuvieran literatura gris. Los artículos fueron inicialmente evaluados acorde a su titulo y resumen, posteriormente los elegidos se analizaron en su totalidad. Resultados: Se encontraron 404 artículos, de los cuales 20 fueron incluidos en el análisis final. Se encontró que la mayoría de los estudios se realizaron en áreas donde la enfermedad tiene una carga baja, como es Norte América y Europa, mientras que en los lugares del mundo donde la carga es mas alta, se realizaron pocos estudios. De igual manera se observo que la mayoría de los estudios mostraron por los menos ser costo efectivos respecto a la no vacunación, y en su totalidad las dos vacunas de segunda generación mostraron costo efectividad respecto a la vacunación con PCV-7. Los resultados de los estudios son muy heterogéneos, hasta dentro del mismo país, señalando la necesidad de guías para la conducción de este tipo de estudios. De igual manera, la mayoría de los estudios fueron financiados por farmacéuticas, mientras en un numero muy reducido por entes gubernamentales. Conclusiones: La mayoría de los estudios económicos sobre las vacunas de segunda generación contra neumococo han sido realizados en países con un alto índice de desarrollo económico y patrocinados por farmacéuticas. Dado que la mayoría de la carga de la enfermedad se encuentran en regiones con un menor nivel de desarrollo económico se deberían realizar mas en estas zonas. De igual manera, al ser la vacunación un asunto de salud publica y con un importante impacto económico los gobiernos deberían estar mas involucrados en los mismos.

Modelación estocástica y trading algorítmico del spread entre acciones mediante procesos de reversión a la media

Las estrategias de inversión pairs trading se basan en desviaciones del precio entre pares de acciones correlacionadas y han sido ampliamente implementadas por fondos de inversión tomando posiciones largas y cortas en las acciones seleccionadas cuando surgen divergencias y obteniendo utilidad cerrando la posición al converger. Se describe un modelo de reversión a la media para analizar la dinámica que sigue el diferencial del precio entre acciones ordinarias y preferenciales de una misma empresa en el mismo mercado. La media de convergencia en el largo plazo es obtenida con un filtro de media móvil, posteriormente, los parámetros del modelo de reversión a la media se estiman mediante un filtro de Kalman bajo una formulación de estado espacio sobre las series históricas. Se realiza un backtesting a la estrategia de pairs trading algorítmico sobre el modelo propuesto indicando potenciales utilidades en mercados financieros que se observan por fuera del equilibrio. Aplicaciones de los resultados podrían mostrar oportunidades para mejorar el rendimiento de portafolios, corregir errores de valoración y sobrellevar mejor periodos de bajos retornos.

Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets

This paper investigates whether bank integration measured by cross-border bank flows can capture the co-movements across housing markets in developed countries by using a spatial dynamic panel model. The transmission can occur through a global banking channel in which global banks intermediate wholesale funding to local banks. Changes in financial conditions are passed across borders through the banks’ balance-sheet exposure to credit, currency, maturity, and funding risks resulting in house price spillovers. While controlling for country-level and global factors, we find significant co-movement across housing markets of countries with proportionally high bank integration. Bank integration can better capture house price co-movements than other measures of economic integration. Once we account for bank exposure, other spatial linkages traditionally used to account for return co-movements across region – such as trade, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, geographic proximity, etc. – become insignificant. Moreover, we find that the co-movement across housing markets decreases for countries with less developed mortgage markets characterized by fixed mortgage rate contracts, low limits of loan-to-value ratios and no mortgage equity withdrawal.

Modelagem e controle de um microveículo aéreo: uma aplicação de estabilidade robusta com a técnica backstepping em uma estrutura hexarrotor

In this Thesis, the development of the dynamic model of multirotor unmanned aerial vehicle with vertical takeoff and landing characteristics, considering input nonlinearities and a full state robust backstepping controller are presented. The dynamic model is expressed using the Newton-Euler laws, aiming to obtain a better mathematical representation of the mechanical system for system analysis and control design, not only when it is hovering, but also when it is taking-off, or landing, or flying to perform a task. The input nonlinearities are the deadzone and saturation, where the gravitational effect and the inherent physical constrains of the rotors are related and addressed. The experimental multirotor aerial vehicle is equipped with an inertial measurement unit and a sonar sensor, which appropriately provides measurements of attitude and altitude. A real-time attitude estimation scheme based on the extended Kalman filter using quaternions was developed. Then, for robustness analysis, sensors were modeled as the ideal value with addition of an unknown bias and unknown white noise. The bounded robust attitude/altitude controller were derived based on globally uniformly practically asymptotically stable for real systems, that remains globally uniformly asymptotically stable if and only if their solutions are globally uniformly bounded, dealing with convergence and stability into a ball of the state space with non-null radius, under some assumptions. The Lyapunov analysis technique was used to prove the stability of the closed-loop system, compute bounds on control gains and guaranteeing desired bounds on attitude dynamics tracking errors in the presence of measurement disturbances. The controller laws were tested in numerical simulations and in an experimental hexarotor, developed at the UFRN Robotics Laboratory

Avaliação da capacidade de adsorção do CO2 em zeólita 12X com gases sintéticos e originados da pirólise do lodo de esgoto

This work depicts a study of the adsorption of carbon dioxide on zeolite 13X. The activities were divided into four stages: study batch adsorption capacity of the adsorbent with synthetic CO2 (4%), fixed bed dynamic evaluation with the commercial mixture of gases (4% CO2, 1.11% CO, 1 2% H2, 0.233% CH4, 0.1% C3, 0.0233% C4 argon as inert closing balance), fixed bed dynamic modeling and evaluation of the breakthrough curve of CO2 originated from the pyrolysis of sewage sludge. The sewage sludge and the adsorbent were characterized by analysis TG / DTA, SEM, XRF and BET. Adsorption studies were carried out under the following operating conditions: temperature 40 °C (for the pyrolysis of the sludge T = 600 °C), pressures of 0.55 to 5.05 bar (batch process), flow rate of the gaseous mixture between 50 - 72 ml/min and the adsorbent masses of 10, 15 and 20 g (fixed bed process). The time for the adsorption batch was 7 h and on the fixed bed was around 180 min. The results of this study showed that in batch adsorption process step with zeolite 13X is efficient and the mass of adsorbed CO2 increases with the increases pressure, decreases with temperature increases and rises due the increase of activation temperature adsorbent. In the batch process were evaluated the breakthrough curves, which were compared with adsorption isotherms represented by the models of Langmuir, Freündlich and Toth. All models well adjusted to the experimental points, but the Langmuir model was chosen in view of its use in the dynamic model does not have implications for adsorption (indeterminacy and larger number of parameters such as occurred with others) in solving the equation. In the fixed bed dynamic study with the synthetic gas mixture, 20 g of mass adsorbent showed the maximum adsorption percentage 46.7% at 40 °C temperature and 50 mL/min of flow rate. The model was satisfactorily fitted to the three breakthrough curves and the parameters were: axial dispersion coefficient (0.0165 dm2/min), effective diffusivity inside the particle (dm2/min 0.0884) and external transfer coefficient mass (0.45 dm/min). The breakthrough curve for CO2 in the process of pyrolysis of the sludge showed a fast saturation with traces of aerosols presents in the gas phase into the fixed bed under the reaction process

Caracterização geomorfológica e modelagem de dados espaciais na plataforma continental rasa do RN nos limites da folha Touros

This work focuses the geomorphological characterization and spatial data modeling in the shallow continental shelf within the Folha Touros limits (SB-25-CV-II), based on bathymetric data analysis and remote sensing products interpretation. The Rio Grande do Norte state is located in northeastern Brazil and the work area is located at the transition region between the eastern and northern portions of their coast. The bathymetric surveys were conduced between march and may 2009, using a 10 meters long vessel and 0.70 meters draught, equipped with global positioning system and echo sounder (dual beam, 200KHz , 14°). The fieldwork resulted in 44 bathymetric profiles espaced 1.5 km and 30 km average length. The bathymetric data amount were 111,200 points and were navigated 1395.7 km within na area about 1,850 km2. The bathymetric data were corrected for the tide level, vessel draught and were subsequently entered into a geographic information system for further processing. Analysis of remote sensing products was carried out using Landsat 7/ETM + band 1, from november 1999. The image was used for visualization and mapping submerged features. The results showed the presence of geomorphological features within the study area. Were observed, from the analysis of local bathymetry and satellite image, seven types of geomorphological features. The channels, with two longitudinals channels (e. g. San Roque and Cioba channels) and other perpendicular to the coast (e. g. Touros, Pititinga and Barretas). Coastal reef formations (Maracajaú, Rio do Fogo and Cioba). Longitudinal waves, described in the literature as longitudinal dunes. The occurrence of a transverse dune field. Another feature observed was the oceanic reefs, an rock alignment parallel to the coast. Were identified four riscas , from north to south: risca do Liso, Gameleira, Zumbi, Pititinga (the latter being described for the first time). Finally, an oceanic terrace was observed in the deepest area of study. Image interpretation corroborated with the in situ results, enabling visualization and description for all features in the region. The results were analysed in an integrating method (using the diferent methodologies applied in this work) and it was essential to describe all features in the area. This method allowed us to evaluate which methods generated better results to describe certain features. From these results was possible to prove the existence of submerged features in the eastern shallow continental shelf of Rio Grande do Norte. In this way, the conclusions was (1) this study contributed to the provision of new information about the area in question, particularly with regard to data collection in situ depths, (2) the method of data collection and interpretation proves to be effective because, through this, it was possible to visualize and interpret the features present in the study area and (3) the interpretation and discussion of results in an integrated method, using different methodologies, can provide better results